More Related Content Similar to Ashish sonal (20) 4. Agenda © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty Part -1 Indian Security Scenario Overview Part -2 Automating Intelligence creation - Intelligence creation - Correlating the 'concept of operations' Part-3 Tackling unconventional conflicts in India - UCIMS 5. The previous wave .. © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty Date of attack Location (Scope of the attack) LEGEND KEY 21 October 2008 Imphal, Manipur (One device) 13 May 2008 Jaipur, Rajasthan (Eight devices) 25 July 2008 Bengaluru, Karnataka (Eight Devices) 26 July 2008 Ahmedabad, Gujarat (21 devices) 29-30 July 2008 Surat, Gujarat (18 devices) 13 September 2008 New Delhi (Six devices) 29 September 2008 Modasa, Gujarat (One device) 29 September 2008 Malegaon, Maharashtra (Two devices) 01 October 2008 Tripura, Agartala (Five devices) 30 October 2008 Guwahati, Assam (18 devices) 26-29 November 2008 Mumbai, Maharashtra (Multiple Attacks & Blasts) 27 September 2008 New Delhi (One device) 01January 2008 Rampur, U.P (Two devices) 6. Major Naxalites Areas © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 7. Naxal Emerging Fault lines © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty Castes and tribes Within tribes Inter-state leadership CPI (Maoist) and frontal organizations Splinter groups The direction these splits take as the government action on all fronts intensifies will have a major bearing on the future of Naxal movement and strategy in India Naxal Movement 9. Circa 2010: Transition Patterns - Naxalism © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty Discontent among the ’ rank & file' of Naxals Differences between groups supporting armed struggle and other, ready for negotiations Military arm of Naxals becoming more influential Religion and caste becoming an issues Leveraging the political forces Increasingly Ambiguous leadership Discontent among members Clash in recruitment and funding sources Naxalism in Transition Naxal Organization Indian government actions and 'reactions' Fragmentation & emergence of splinter groups 10. Transition of terrorism in India (post 26/11) © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty Transition of terrorism in India (post 26/11) Organised Crime Linkages (local & international) Changes in tactics Recruitment is becoming local focusing on those working in factories and computer literates from big cities Emergence of India as a target of transnational terrorism Expanding homebase logistics and networks Strategic Pause - Still 'waiting' to carry out mass large scale attacks Impacted by neighborhood Geo-strategic forces - Bangladesh and Pakistan 13. Challenges for the security forces © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty Terrain & Demographic Information Intelligence collation from diverse sources Network centric operations & comd & control Technology Platforms Evolution of Organized crime Development of the Concept of Operations Strategic Challenges 14. Challenges for the security forces (Intelligence & Ops) © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty Information availability in multi agency envt Leveraging on predictive patterns Managing short term and long term op activities Planning and monitoring Information asymmetry Command and Control The single largest challenge is the creation of actionable intelligence for actual op execution 15. © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty The Intelligence Stack Strategic Intelligence Operational Intelligence Tactical Intelligence Tactical Intelligence Operational Intelligence Strategic Intelligence Intelligence Consumption Intelligence Creation 16. © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty Technical Intelligence + Human Intelligence Predictive and Investigative Intelligence Intelligence Needs Granularity - Data Cubes WHEN WHO WHERE WHAT WHY 17. Convergence – Human Int and Tech Int Intelligence Agencies - Databases Administrative - Databases Tech Intelligence Datamining Processing Raw Data into Usable form Better Information Collection Internet based information collection and investigation (Track Back Forensics) Enhanced Prevent-Prepare-Respond-Recover Structure Identifying Triggers & Patterns Automated analysis of structured & unstructured data Human Intelligence © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 20. © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty Unconventional Conflict & Intelligence Management System (UCIMS) 21. Intelligence collaboration process in a multi-agency environment © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty Intelligence sources Socio political events Demographics & Civic Admin Sat images, maps Technical inputs Data repository - Raw data - Analysis of data - Intelligence creation - Intelligence distribution Actionable intelligence Tactical decision making Intelligence collaboration process 23. © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 24. Associations through SVO's © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty INDIAN CITIES like Mumbai and parts of Goa and Konkan region have reported heavy rainfalls. The current weather forecast is that the tropical cyclone has strengthened over the Arabian Sea off the western coast. The cyclone will hit Mumbai on Thursday morning (November 12,2009), at around 5:30 am. The cyclone named Phyan was around 250 km west of Goa at around 2:30 am on Thursday morning. Orange elert, which is a step below the red alert has been issued. The cyclone, which started as a deep depression over the Bay of Bengal off the Kerala coast on Monday, moved northwards towards Konkan coast and intensified into a cyclonic storm on Tuesday. Mumbai reported heavy rainfalls parts of Goa reported heavy rainfalls Konkan regio n reported heavy rainfalls The Cyclo ne moving fast from the Goa's coast the tropical cyclone strengthened over Arabian Sea the tropical cyclone strengthened off western coast The cyclone hit on Thursday The cyclone hit at around 5 30 am Around 300 fishermen missing from the Daman coast The cyclone lead to torrential rainfall Cyclone Phyan crossed the Mumbai coast Cyclone Phyan moving in a northeasterly direction The cyclone started deep depression The cyclone started over the Bay of Bengal The cyclone started on Monday The cyclone moved northwards The cyclone moved towards Konkan coas t The cyclone intensified into cyclonic storm Cyclone caused in coastal districts Cyclone moving in a northeasterly direction 400 fisherme n stranded in Arabian Sea 100 fisherman missing in Arabian Sea Raw text in the form of document SVO extraction showing sequence of events, relations and association between entities 25. © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 26. Past historical factual information © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 28. Deeper relations between entities © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 30. Combining Data Mining and Link Analysis © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 31. Network Analysis and Data visualization (1) Manually creation of association matrix by identifying the relations through raw data (2) Helpful in investigation, becomes ineffective where datasets are very large (1) Graphically representation of insurgent networks using tools such as Link Analysis (2) Helpful in visualization of large amount of relationship data but without analytical functionality. (1)Advanced analytical capabilities to assist investigation (2) It can help in identifying networks to mining of large volumes of data to discover useful knowledge and create intelligence about the structure and organization of criminal networks - Data Mining - Social Network Analysis - Pattern Tracing and interactions © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty Manual Graphics-based Manual Structured 33. OLAP analysis © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 37. Basis for Risk Mitigation - (Case Study) © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty Low Risks They do not require the formulation of a risk mitigation strategy at this stage of exploration work Moderate Risks Awareness about factors and influences that drive these parameters, and regular monitoring are required. The threats from these risks however will not have a direct impact at this stage Extreme & High Risks Those areas that register a 15+ total on freq * severity require active risk mitigations strategies to be in place 38. ORKASH-UCIMS on a geospatial platform © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 39. © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 40. Intelligence & Operations Management © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 41. Connecting the Dots.. © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 43. Tracking events news with location based search © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 44. Advanced Search Techniques for Location Intelligence © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 45. © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 46. Monitoring Movement of Tactical Assets © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 47. Air Surveillance © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 52. © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty THANK YOU Orkash Services Pvt Ltd 75 C, Sector 18 Gurgaon 122 015 Haryana, India Phone: +91 124 4033773 +91 98102 36020 [email_address] www.orkash.com Editor's Notes ghghghghgh You know how many servers does Google use – Any guess 4 - 5 Lacs A closer examination of the violence prone districts could possibly reduce the actual footprint by say another 20 to 30 per cent Need of the hour is to converge the existing resources of HUMINT as well as technology to enhance real time intelligence and be able to predict the unforessen by understanding patterns - which is humanly not possible and not achiavable Lets me show with an example : there was a cyclone a couple of months before in bomaby. Here the cyclone becomes the entity1 and thursday becomes the entity 2 And hit becomes the relation between the 2. Warfare and intelligence is becoming very complexed and just having HUMINT is not enough and therefore needs more network based approach which collates as well as demistifies the intelligence from unstructured data bases to structured analyses to derive the intelligence – Helpful in 9/11 and 26/11 kind of investigations
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