Presented by Barry Shapiro at the Launch of Tanzania Livestock Master Plan, Tanzania, 23 February 2016

1. Using the Livestock Master Plan (LMP) process to influence
pro-poor livestock development in Ethiopia and Tanzania
Barry Shapiro
(ILRI)
Launch of Tanzania Livestock Master Plan, Dar es Salaam,
Tanzania, 23 February 2016

2. Livestock Master Plans (LMP): Motivation
• Under-investment in the livestock sector is a major constraint to
the livestock sector contributing to national development goals
• Ag Ministers lack ammunition (returns on investment) to get
financial resources for livestock development (from Ministries of
Finance)
• Lack of human capacity for quantitative livestock sector planning
is also common
• Effective livestock development requires sector analysis to
understand the current situation, to set long-term strategy and
make action plans
• African governments need realistic action plans (LMPs) for
meeting targets in national economic development plans
• Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation agreed to support capacity
building for fact-based, realistic financial planning

3. Ethiopia Livestock Master Plan (LMP):
Origin, Purpose, and Future
• The Ethiopia Ministry of Agriculture requested BMGF to fund
capacity building of MOA staff to do fact-based livestock
development planning
• The MOA asked for ILRI to provide training and backstopping
• The LMP has become the livestock development action plan
under the new 5-year Ethiopia Growth and Transformation Plan
• The Gov’t of Ethiopian and donors (BMGF and World Bank so far)
are now funding implementation of the LMP
• BMGF has now funded ILRI to help the Tanzania MALF do a LMP
• Discussions are on-going to do LMPs in Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda,
and India
• Creating LMPs in developing countries is a way to influence pro-
poor livestock development

4. Stakeholder Process of Developing a Livestock Sector
Analysis (LSA) & Livestock Master Plan (LMP)
• Creating a LMP required “quantitative sector” analysis (LSA) but
“stakeholder” involvement is essential
• Dynamic herd and sector models are built to do the 15 year livestock
sector analysis (LSA) –baseline, projections and foresight analysis
• The LMP process is quantitative, but consultative. Over 50
specialists in Ethiopia provided data and parameters on animal
productivity, value chains and cross-cutting issues
• Stakeholders helped create a national data base and model
baselines, and helped identify potential interventions
• The Technical Advisory Committee guided the process, made
technical input interventions and helped ensure the results are
useful – realistic and relevant

5. How was the LSA and LMP interventions chosen?
with indicators of GOE goals for GTP II
Using the livestock sector model built on a herd model, potential LMP
intervention impacts were assessed against Ethiopian national
development objectives for GTP II -- measured by livestock development
indicators.
The national GTP objectives (indicator in parentheses) are the following:
• Reducing poverty (household income)
• Achieving food security (production-consumption balance)
• Contributing to economic growth (GDP or national income)
• Contributing to exports (foreign exchange earnings)
• Contributing to climatic sustainability (GHG emissions)
The LSA and LMP have demonstrated the potential of the livestock
sector to reach national development goals

6. Livestock Sector Analysis (LSA) Production Zones

7. MOA livestock production zones and sub-
zones in Ethiopia
Livestock Production System
Lowland Grazing (LG-L) Highland Mixed (MR-H)
LGAP LGP HMR-MD Medium
Small
C C
C-F
Specialized (SP)
C: Cattle
Cam: Camel
S: Sheep
S-F: Sheep fattening
Be: Bees
G:Goats
EQ: Equines
D: Dairy
C-F: Cattle
fattening
P: Backyard
Poultry
L: Layers
Br: Broilers
S
Small
L
Br
Be
MediumSmallMedium
D
C
G
HMR-MS
Small
S
CC
S
Cam
Cam
C
Small
S
Cam
G G
G
S
G
S
C-F
D
S-F
P
P
Be
P P
Be Be
P
Be
Be
P
Be
LSIPT
application
process ….

8. Production and productivity
parameters of cattle by production zone
Lowland Grazing (LG) Mixed Rainfall
Deficient Sufficient
(MRD)
Mixed Rainfall
Sufficient (MRS)
Lowland Grazing (LG)
Dairy Specialized
AP PS PM S M S M S M
Herd size
9 7 18 2 6 3 9 5 100
56 56 58 57 58 60 65 85 90
Parturition rate (%) 14 12 10 11 12 12 8 8 5
Mortality rate
female calves (%)
6 7 6 7 7 7 6 1 1
Mortality rate
female sub adults
(%)
4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3
Mortality rate
Female adult (%)
15 16 16 12 16 15 10 6 6
Mortality rate male
calves (%)
9 12 12 8 8 8 6 1 1
Mortality rate male
sub adults (%)
7 9 9 5 6 4 4 3 3
Mortality rate male
adults (%)
11.5 10.9 11.9 11.9 11.4 11.5 10.2 32.6 35.5
Herd size
0.3 0.2 1.5 0.0 1.0 1.9 5.0 8.4 6.0
LSIPT application
process ….

9. The Six Priority Key LMP Commodity Value
Chains for GTP II
A. Dairy -- improved with AI and Synchronization, feed, and health
1. Improved Family Dairy systems & value chains in wet
highlands and dairy belts (including peri-urban)
2. Specialized Commercial Dairy production & value chains
B. Red meat (and milk) systems improved with health and feed
1. Improved Family Red Meat-Milk systems in all production
zones (cattle, sheep, goats and camels)
2. Specialized Beef Cattle Feedlots and On-farm Fattening
C. Poultry improved with crossbreeding & exotics, health and feed
1. Improved Family Poultry in all production zones
2. Specialized Industrial Poultry – Broilers and Layers

10. Smallholder Family and Specialized Commercial Systems are
both Winners in Ethiopia: Returns on Investment 2013-2028
33
24
0
10
20
30
20-YearIRR(%)
Small Medium
Panel A: Improved Family Dairy
29
43
0
10
20
30
40
Small Medium
Panel B: Specialized Dairy

11. Most animal systems can reduce poverty during GTP II
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Family cattle
(8)
Family sheep
(16)
Family goat
(25)
Family camel
(15)
Crossbred
cattle in MRS
(10)
Improved
family
poultry (25)
Annual incremental income per farm (ET Birr)
Annual
incremental
income per
farm
ET Birr

12. Positive production-consumption balances projected for GTP II
(2015-2020) for red meat, chicken meat, and all meat (thousand
tons), with LMP interventions
.
Consumption
Production
Panel A: Red Meat
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Consumption
Production
Panel B: Chicken Meat
50
100
150
200
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Consumption
Production
Panel C: All Meat
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Based on LSA results.

13. Positive projected production-consumption balances for cow milk
and all milk (million liters), (2015-2020) with LMP interventions
Panel A: Cow Milk
Consumption
Production
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Based on LSA results.
Panel B: All Milk
Consumption
Production
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Based on LSA results.

14. GDP contribution from LMP interventions for
milk, red meat, and chicken meat and eggs
(2020)
74,064
82,489
10,054
5,577
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Red meat (ETB
million)
All milk (ETB
million)
Egg (ETB million) Chicken meat (ETB
million)

15. GHG (CO2e ) emissions from BAU (without intervention) and with
interventions with LMP and CRGE offtake rates (in Mt ton)
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
Red Meat (ton) Chicken and egg (ton) All meat (ton)
GHG CO2e emission
(in MtT) - BAU (2030)
GHG CO2e emission
(in MtT) - With
intervention and BAU
offtake rate (2030)
GHG CO2e emission
(in MtT) - With
intervention and
CRGE offtake rate
(2030)

16. Percentage increase in Red Meat production and CO2e emissions
from interventions with “business as usual” (BAU or LMP) and
CRGE offtake rates (%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
% increase in
production with
BAU offtake rate
% increase in
production with
CRGE offtake
rate
% increase in
CO2e emission
with BAU
offtake rate
% increase in
CO2e emission
with CRGE
offtake rate
86%
69%
34%
7%
Red Meat
Red Meat
Percent (%)

17. What do LMP results mean for the
Ethiopia 5-year development plan - GTP II
Livestock development efforts for GTP II need to:
• Invest in all LMP interventions to eliminate poverty in 18%
of livestock keeping households (>11 million people)
• Focus on poultry development to achieve better food
security, enable red meat exports, and lower GHG
emissions
• Combination of cattle and poultry to improve food
security – lower domestic meat prices to increase exports
and foreign exchange earnings
• Focus on dairy development to achieve dairy product food
security in domestic markets and also increase export
earnings

18. Comparison of Public and Private investment shares by
Major Value Chain (ETB Millions)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Cow Dairy Red meat Poultry
Public
Private

19. Minister of Ag Reaction to LMP
• The Agriculture Minister said “GOE will adopt and implement
the LMP” thru the GTP II (5-year development plan)
• Livestock State Ministry now owns the LSA, GTP II and LMP
• Livestock State Ministry used the LMP to set targets for the
GTP II (2015-2020) and it is the livestock sector
implementation plan for the GTP II
• Ministry of Livestock & Fisheries now created and the
Livestock Sectors are based on the commodity value chains
recommended in the LMP for investment
• MLF is setting up its own policy & planning unit and is
committed to expand the use of the LSA/LMP tools in
planning, policy analysis and research

20. The Core LMP Team – MALF, ILRI staff (& BMGF)
THANK YOU!
THANK YOU!