Presented by Jeroen Dijkman at the ILRI Livestock live talk seminar, Nairobi, 18 January 2013

1. People,
the planet,
and sustainable
livestock
Jeroen Dijkman
Livestock live talk seminar
ILRI Nairobi
18 January 2013

2. What this presentation is about
• Scarcity, demand and the implications of
business as usual;
• Unpacking sustainable livestock;
• The change we want;
• One world, one Agenda

3. The Future…
In the next 30 years we’re adding two Chinas....

4. 200
250
100
0
150
50
Apr-01
Aug-01
Dec-01
Apr-02
Aug-02
Dec-02
Apr-03
Aug-03
Dec-03
Apr-04
Aug-04
Dec-04
Apr-05
Aug-05
Dec-05
Apr-06
Aug-06
Dec-06
Apr-07
Aug-07
Dec-07
Apr-08
Aug-08
Commodity Price Index Monthly Price
Dec-08
Apr-09
Aug-09
Dec-09
Apr-10
Aug-10
Commodity prices on the rise
Dec-10
Apr-11

5. International prices for maize and soy
US $ /ton
Facts and Trends
Source: FAO commodity prices, 2011

6. A Global Water Crisis
• 2 billion people lack
access
• Demand is growing;
freshwater is getting
scarce
• 70 % of total
freshwater use is for
agriculture

7. Peak Oil

8. Climate Change
•2007 IPCC report indicate that the
global surface temperature is likely to
rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C during the
21st century
• The rate of warming over the last 50
years is almost double that over the
last 100 years (0.13°C ± 0.03°C vs.
0.07°C ± 0.02°C per decade)
4th AR, IPCC 2007

9. Annual urban growth rate
1970-2000 2000-2010 2010-2030 2030-2050
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
Annual growth p.a. (%)
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
SSA LAC NENA S. Asia E. & SE. Asia Developed

10. Annual growth in per capita
consumption of livestock products
2.50
2.00
1.50
Annual growth rate (%)
Bovine meat
Ovine meat
1.00 Pig meat
Poultry meat
Milk
0.50 Eggs
0.00
Developing countries Developed countries
-0.50
2006-2030 2030-2050 2006-2030 2030-2050

11. Relationship between animal protein
consumption and income
120
Per capita animal protein supply (gr/day)
100
80
60
40
20
0
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000
Per capita GDP (US$ PPP)

12. Land
• By 2050, 33 % more people need to be fed
• 70 % more meat and milk
• Expansion of biofuels will continue
• Uncertainties of climate change
• Potential for agriculture expansion is limited

13. Livestock and Land Use
• 26 % of global land is pasture
• 12 % of global land is crop land, 1/3 thereof is
for feed
• Yield growth accounts for most of agric.
production increases
• Area expansion into forests, mainly in Latin
America

14. Livestock and Water
• Direct water use is small
• Indirect water use and impact on water cycles
is huge:
– Water for feed production
– Impact grazing on water quantity and water
quality
– Water pollution from livestock waste

15. Livestock and Climate Change
 Land use and land use change (deforestation and
degradation)
 Nitrogen fertilizer production and use for feed
 Emissions from digestion
 Emissions from livestock waste
 Climate change to affect feed and water
availability
 Pastures as a potential carbon sink

16. What solutions have been offered?
• No problem, no solution required – denial,
business as usual
• Problems are local – technical fixes
• Problems are substantial and systemic –
policies needed
• Problems are huge and can hardly be fixed –
rein in growth
• Problems are beyond control - vegetarianism

17. When it comes to accommodating sector growth,
EFFICIENCY IS KEY

18. Intensification
12.00
Ethiopia
10.00
8.00
CO2 eq/kg milk
Kenya
6.00
Egypt
4.00
China
Rwanda South Africa
2.00
Thailand
0.00
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
milk (kg/cow)

19. Variability means opportunities
25%
25%
50%
25%
26

20. So…
• Despite higher input costs, sector growth will
continue
• Intensive production is more efficient and has
lower emissions
• Huge performance gaps within systems and
across countries
• Technical solutions are available but incentives
need to be better aligned

21.  Livestock is at the centre of most
contemporary resource use issues (land,
water, energy, nutrients, climate change)
 Demand for livestock products will likely
continue to be strong
 Efficiency is key to reducing resource
requirements and environmental impact and
requires:
◦ Technology adoption and development need to
accelerate
◦ Supporting policy frameworks
◦ Joint stakeholder action

22. ….what this all means
• making livestock more sustainable is both
important and urgent: action is needed
• “blame games” aren’t helpful: we need a
constructive dialogue to build consensus
• Resource use efficiency identified as the
common ground and it indicates the direction
of change

23. But what does sustainability actual mean?
• Multi-functionality of agriculture
– Livelihoods, food security, economic growth, environment,
agro-industrial development, bio-fuels, convergence –
ensure the supply of ‘public goods’
• Interconnectedness of scales
– International markets, climate change, (animal) disease
outbreaks, increasing price volatility, unpredictable and
non-linear change

24. • Diversity of approaches and experiences has
led to atomisation and contending coalitions
rather than coherence and collective learning
and action.

25. Livestock sector sustainability
Inter– and Intra- generational equity

26. Finding common ground:
Game changing opportunities
– Closing the efficiency gap: Existing technology and
institutional frameworks can generate large resource use
efficiency, economic and social gains
– Restoring value to grasslands: Payment for
environmental services can connect people and
production systems, raise productivity and enhance
livelihoods
– Reducing discharge: Recovery of nutrients and energy
contained in manure can reduce nutrient overload and
greenhouse gas emissions and reduce public health
problems

27. Opportunities to build sustainability
• Knowledge use capacities as a way of
responding to change and as a new source of
comparative advantage
• Rapidly advancing technological frontier
– New opportunities from public and private R&D
• Collective intelligence
– Collaboration of different sources of knowledge.
Both necessary and now possible.

28. How to optimize the contribution of these
opportunities
• Not just knowledge and technology inputs that are
needed, but also the processes that make
knowledge available and enable its use:
• From high yielding technologies to high-yielding
processes

29. How to optimize the contribution of these
opportunities (cont)
• How to organise?
– Strengthening interaction across the whole range of
actors involved in the livestock sector to deal with
known and unknown, predictable and unpredictable
challenges and opportunities, now and in the future.
• Addressing multiple agendas.
– Finding ways of developing and adapting habits and
practices that foster a capacity that integrates pro-poor,
pro-environment, and pro-market agendas.
• Stimulating change.
– Finding ways to stimulate the institutional and policy
changes needed to bring about the above.

30. Moving to a New Narrative
• The livestock sector will grow but that growth
will need to be “green”
• The livestock sector offers great opportunities
for better resource management and
development
• Social and health objectives can be aligned
• We need to do this jointly – collective action

31. jeroen.dijkman@fao.org
www.livestockdialogue.org
•