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Creating a livestock sector with global
competitor advantages in East Africa
Amos Omore
International Livestock Research Institute, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Agribusiness East Africa Conference, 28-29 January, 2014
Serena Hotel, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
Key messages
• Trends show global and Africa’s livestock
industry is growing rapidly
• Significant opportunities exist for East
Africa’s livestock sector
• Research solutions are needed to
transform the livestock sector

• More investments are required to take
successes to scale
• Acting now, together and coherently,
we can create a sustainable livestock
sector with global competitor advantages
in East Africa
The global & EA’s livestock sector is growing rapidly
Livestock dominate list of highest value commodities:
4 of top 6 globally and 3 of top 6 in Africa
Highest value
commodities
globally:

Highest value
commodities in
Africa:

Source: FAOSTAT, 2013
Percentage growth in demand
for livestock products: 2000−2030

5
Based on anticipated change in absolute tonnes of product comparing 2000 and 2030

FAO, 2012
Economic opportunities in the livestock sector
The 4 billion people who live
on less than US$10 a day
(primarily in developing
countries) represent a food
market of about $2.9 trillion
per year. (Hammond et al. 2007)
• Consumption of meat and
milk in developing countries
is forecast to increase faster
than that for any crop
product. (IAASTD 2007)

• 17 billion domestic animals
• Asset value $1.4 trillion
• Employs 1.3 billion people
Rosegrant et al. 2009
Drivers of livestock growth: more, richer
people and urbanization
Population growth
Over 9 billion people
to feed globally by 2050

Income growth
5 of the 20 fastest-growing
economies in the world
are in eastern Africa.

Urbanization
Africa’s current population of 1.1 billion
is expected to double,
to 2.3 billion, by 2050,
and over half will live in urban areas.
ILRI Spearheading a
New Way Forward
Significant opportunities for Africa’s livestock sector
Per cent growth in consumption of livestock
products between 1995 and 2005

FAO, 2012
Extraordinarily high increases in demand
for animal-source foods in Africa expected
• By 2050, the meat and milk markets are projected
to increase 145 and 155%, respectively, over 2005/07 levels.
• Over this period, Africa’s increase in volume of meat consumed
will be on par with that of the developed world and Latin America.

• Gains in the size of Africa’s milk markets will be stronger
than in any other region except South Asia.
• Annual growth rates in both meat and milk consumption
are projected to be higher in Africa than in any other regions,
excepting meat in South Asia.
• In both volume and value, beef, milk and poultry will provide
business opportunities for Africa’s livestock producers, sellers and
investors.
Africa is a net importer of animal-source foods
Africa total meat trade

• Production will not
keep pace with
consumption growth

2000
1800
1600

Quantity (Tonnes)

1400
1200
Imports

1000

Exports
800

• Africa expected to
continue being a net
importer of animalsourced foods
• Global trade share:
3%

600
400
200
0
1961

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

• Intra-regional trade
(2009): 10%
Calculated from FAO data (FAOSTAT, 2013)
Future livestock sector
markets and opportunities
• Developing, not developed, countries (Africa significant)
• Starting point is the smallholder producers
• Transforming the sector to meet demand
in environmentally sustainable and healthy ways:
– Use and take to scale research-based successes in
> technology (feeds, breeds, health) to push productivity
> markets to pull productivity
– New business models
East Africa is well placed to exploit these opportunities

ILRI Spearheading a
New Way Forward
Regional GDP Gains to 2015 from Growth in
Selected Commodity Sub-Sectors (US$ million)

Source: ASARECA/IFPRI Report #150
More opportunities in milk than in beef and
other meats
Milk
Oilseeds
Cassava
Sorghum_Millet
Vegetable_Fruits
Beef
Maize
Bananas
Coffee_Tea
Potatoes_Sweetpotatoes
Rice
Wheat_Barley
Beans_Peas
Poultry
Sugar
0

100

200

300

400

500

600

The region dominates production Africa’s milk (40%), beef (23%) and mutton
(26%) in 2007
Source: ASARECA/IFPRI Report #150
But there are still huge production and productivity
gaps: No EA country appears in the big league!
Volume of milk produced in
2011(>10 million tonnes)
Average production/cow
EU-27
Israel
India

Denmark
Netherelands

USA

Spain

China

Belgium
Brazil

EU
Italy

Russia

South Africa

New Zealand

Russia
Turkey

China

Pakistan

Egypt
India

Argentina

Nigeria
Ukrain

-

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,00010,000
11,000
12,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100110120130140150160

Surce: IDF/FIL dairy Situation report, 2012
More opportunities in local & regional markets
Brazil, Argentina and India much more
competitive in the meat trade: They land
beef in importing countries at costs < 50%
than the most competitive African
countries (Rich, 2009)
High perishability, lack of cold chains and
poor infrastructure make livestock
products uncompetitive in the region
High feed costs and seasonality must be
overcome to meet high quality standards

Market share (%): Informal raw milk
markets

Uganda

Tanzania

Kenya

80%

Exploit local demand

85%

90%

95%

100%
Smallholders who dominate the livestock sector
are often competitive with bigger producers
• At least 80% of East Africa’s current
livestock production comes from
the smallholder sector.
• In many cases, East Africa’s smallholder
producers can compete well with
larger livestock producers.
• Smallholders are expected to continue
to dominate East Africa’s livestock
production for generations to come.

• The challenge is how to continue to meet
the growing demand for livestock from
the smallholder sector, and do so
sustainably.
Aggregate welfare effects of removing trade
barriers

• Non-tariff barriers and transport costs in EAC hinder
effective supply response to local & regional demand
• Removal of tariffs within EAC doubled dairy trade to 11%
in a decade
Source: Gelan & Omore (2013)
Research solutions are needed
to transform East Africa’s livestock sector
East African research-based livestock successes:
FEEDS
• 70% of production cost – FEED
• 70% of feed – CROP RESIDUES

• Potential huge demand for grain for
MONOGASTRICS
• Opportunities:
– Improved crop residue
quantity and quality
– Improved use of crop residues
with other feed resources
– Use of sorghum and other alternates
to maize for monogastrics
East African research-based livestock successes:
BREEDS
• Imported ‘improved’genotypes
often unsuccessful in many areas

• African breeds have huge potential:
− Appropriate breeding and selection
− Introduction of cross-breds
Example
• ‘Hairless’ worm-resistant red Maasai
sheep are now, in the face of climate
change, being restocked by
Maasai communities.
East African research-based livestock successes:
HEALTH
• Animal health becomes more
important with improved genotypes
• Research solutions for animal
diseases:
− Vaccines (e.g. East Coast fever)
− Diagnostics

• In Uganda, where pork consumption
is skyrocketing, projects are
enhancing the pig value chain and
helping the country’s ensure the
safety of its pork products.
New investments and reforms are needed
to take these successes to scale
Both investments and reforms
needed in Africa’s livestock sector
• Live up to CAADP targets to employ agriculture-led growth to achieve MDG1
of halving poverty and hunger
o Pursue 6% average annual sector growth at national level
o Allocate 10% of national budgets to the agriculture sector
• Investments as well as policy and institutional reforms
that target markets are needed.
• These can ensure that the business opportunities
generated by the growing demand for animal-sourced foods
translate into widespread benefits for the population.
• Research, development, investment, businesses and farmers themselves
need to be better aligned and connected.
• To meet the growing demand, we’re going to have to do things differently.
Examples of private-public synergies
Joint public-private testing of innovations:
• Innovative franchise models are providing smallholders
with access to agro-vets (‘Sidai’ in Kenya)
• New low-cost, pen-side diagnostic tools
are providing diagnostics for smallholder settings
• New mobile phone systems are helping farmers monitor
the health and reproduction of their animals (‘iCow’ in Kenya)

• Index based livestock insurance is reducing risk for pastoralists
using banking, insurance and IT from private sector innovation
• ”East Africa Dairy Development (EADD) project is connecting
farmers to service providers and new business opportunities
through a hub model
• R&D partnerships under “Maziwa Zaidi” to adapt ‘hub model’ for
marginalized groups in Tanzania
Acting now, together and coherently,
we can create a competitive and sustainable
livestock sector in East Africa
Africa’s livestock agenda:
A right now opportunity window
• Partnerships − including R&D, investment,
private and public sectors − are essential.
• Start with the smallholder producer.
• Transform the sector to meet
demand in environmentally
sustainable and healthy ways.
• Use and take to scale research-based
successes in:
− Technology (feeds, breeds, health)
− Markets
− New business models

If we don’t act soon, importers will.
An example of acting together:
Tanzania Dairy Development Forum
Key messages
• Trends show global and Africa’s livestock
industry is growing rapidly
• Significant opportunities exist for East
Africa’s livestock sector

• Research solutions are needed to
transform the livestock sector
• More investments are required to take
successes to scale
• Acting now, together and coherently,
we can create a sustainable livestock sector
with global competitor advantages in East
Africa
Thank you

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Creating a livestock sector with global competitor advantages in East Africa

  • 1. Creating a livestock sector with global competitor advantages in East Africa Amos Omore International Livestock Research Institute, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania Agribusiness East Africa Conference, 28-29 January, 2014 Serena Hotel, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
  • 2. Key messages • Trends show global and Africa’s livestock industry is growing rapidly • Significant opportunities exist for East Africa’s livestock sector • Research solutions are needed to transform the livestock sector • More investments are required to take successes to scale • Acting now, together and coherently, we can create a sustainable livestock sector with global competitor advantages in East Africa
  • 3. The global & EA’s livestock sector is growing rapidly
  • 4. Livestock dominate list of highest value commodities: 4 of top 6 globally and 3 of top 6 in Africa Highest value commodities globally: Highest value commodities in Africa: Source: FAOSTAT, 2013
  • 5. Percentage growth in demand for livestock products: 2000−2030 5 Based on anticipated change in absolute tonnes of product comparing 2000 and 2030 FAO, 2012
  • 6. Economic opportunities in the livestock sector The 4 billion people who live on less than US$10 a day (primarily in developing countries) represent a food market of about $2.9 trillion per year. (Hammond et al. 2007) • Consumption of meat and milk in developing countries is forecast to increase faster than that for any crop product. (IAASTD 2007) • 17 billion domestic animals • Asset value $1.4 trillion • Employs 1.3 billion people Rosegrant et al. 2009
  • 7. Drivers of livestock growth: more, richer people and urbanization Population growth Over 9 billion people to feed globally by 2050 Income growth 5 of the 20 fastest-growing economies in the world are in eastern Africa. Urbanization Africa’s current population of 1.1 billion is expected to double, to 2.3 billion, by 2050, and over half will live in urban areas.
  • 8. ILRI Spearheading a New Way Forward Significant opportunities for Africa’s livestock sector
  • 9. Per cent growth in consumption of livestock products between 1995 and 2005 FAO, 2012
  • 10. Extraordinarily high increases in demand for animal-source foods in Africa expected • By 2050, the meat and milk markets are projected to increase 145 and 155%, respectively, over 2005/07 levels. • Over this period, Africa’s increase in volume of meat consumed will be on par with that of the developed world and Latin America. • Gains in the size of Africa’s milk markets will be stronger than in any other region except South Asia. • Annual growth rates in both meat and milk consumption are projected to be higher in Africa than in any other regions, excepting meat in South Asia. • In both volume and value, beef, milk and poultry will provide business opportunities for Africa’s livestock producers, sellers and investors.
  • 11. Africa is a net importer of animal-source foods Africa total meat trade • Production will not keep pace with consumption growth 2000 1800 1600 Quantity (Tonnes) 1400 1200 Imports 1000 Exports 800 • Africa expected to continue being a net importer of animalsourced foods • Global trade share: 3% 600 400 200 0 1961 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 • Intra-regional trade (2009): 10% Calculated from FAO data (FAOSTAT, 2013)
  • 12. Future livestock sector markets and opportunities • Developing, not developed, countries (Africa significant) • Starting point is the smallholder producers • Transforming the sector to meet demand in environmentally sustainable and healthy ways: – Use and take to scale research-based successes in > technology (feeds, breeds, health) to push productivity > markets to pull productivity – New business models
  • 13. East Africa is well placed to exploit these opportunities ILRI Spearheading a New Way Forward
  • 14. Regional GDP Gains to 2015 from Growth in Selected Commodity Sub-Sectors (US$ million) Source: ASARECA/IFPRI Report #150
  • 15. More opportunities in milk than in beef and other meats Milk Oilseeds Cassava Sorghum_Millet Vegetable_Fruits Beef Maize Bananas Coffee_Tea Potatoes_Sweetpotatoes Rice Wheat_Barley Beans_Peas Poultry Sugar 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 The region dominates production Africa’s milk (40%), beef (23%) and mutton (26%) in 2007 Source: ASARECA/IFPRI Report #150
  • 16. But there are still huge production and productivity gaps: No EA country appears in the big league! Volume of milk produced in 2011(>10 million tonnes) Average production/cow EU-27 Israel India Denmark Netherelands USA Spain China Belgium Brazil EU Italy Russia South Africa New Zealand Russia Turkey China Pakistan Egypt India Argentina Nigeria Ukrain - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,00010,000 11,000 12,000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100110120130140150160 Surce: IDF/FIL dairy Situation report, 2012
  • 17. More opportunities in local & regional markets Brazil, Argentina and India much more competitive in the meat trade: They land beef in importing countries at costs < 50% than the most competitive African countries (Rich, 2009) High perishability, lack of cold chains and poor infrastructure make livestock products uncompetitive in the region High feed costs and seasonality must be overcome to meet high quality standards Market share (%): Informal raw milk markets Uganda Tanzania Kenya 80% Exploit local demand 85% 90% 95% 100%
  • 18. Smallholders who dominate the livestock sector are often competitive with bigger producers • At least 80% of East Africa’s current livestock production comes from the smallholder sector. • In many cases, East Africa’s smallholder producers can compete well with larger livestock producers. • Smallholders are expected to continue to dominate East Africa’s livestock production for generations to come. • The challenge is how to continue to meet the growing demand for livestock from the smallholder sector, and do so sustainably.
  • 19. Aggregate welfare effects of removing trade barriers • Non-tariff barriers and transport costs in EAC hinder effective supply response to local & regional demand • Removal of tariffs within EAC doubled dairy trade to 11% in a decade Source: Gelan & Omore (2013)
  • 20. Research solutions are needed to transform East Africa’s livestock sector
  • 21. East African research-based livestock successes: FEEDS • 70% of production cost – FEED • 70% of feed – CROP RESIDUES • Potential huge demand for grain for MONOGASTRICS • Opportunities: – Improved crop residue quantity and quality – Improved use of crop residues with other feed resources – Use of sorghum and other alternates to maize for monogastrics
  • 22. East African research-based livestock successes: BREEDS • Imported ‘improved’genotypes often unsuccessful in many areas • African breeds have huge potential: − Appropriate breeding and selection − Introduction of cross-breds Example • ‘Hairless’ worm-resistant red Maasai sheep are now, in the face of climate change, being restocked by Maasai communities.
  • 23. East African research-based livestock successes: HEALTH • Animal health becomes more important with improved genotypes • Research solutions for animal diseases: − Vaccines (e.g. East Coast fever) − Diagnostics • In Uganda, where pork consumption is skyrocketing, projects are enhancing the pig value chain and helping the country’s ensure the safety of its pork products.
  • 24. New investments and reforms are needed to take these successes to scale
  • 25. Both investments and reforms needed in Africa’s livestock sector • Live up to CAADP targets to employ agriculture-led growth to achieve MDG1 of halving poverty and hunger o Pursue 6% average annual sector growth at national level o Allocate 10% of national budgets to the agriculture sector • Investments as well as policy and institutional reforms that target markets are needed. • These can ensure that the business opportunities generated by the growing demand for animal-sourced foods translate into widespread benefits for the population. • Research, development, investment, businesses and farmers themselves need to be better aligned and connected. • To meet the growing demand, we’re going to have to do things differently.
  • 26. Examples of private-public synergies Joint public-private testing of innovations: • Innovative franchise models are providing smallholders with access to agro-vets (‘Sidai’ in Kenya) • New low-cost, pen-side diagnostic tools are providing diagnostics for smallholder settings • New mobile phone systems are helping farmers monitor the health and reproduction of their animals (‘iCow’ in Kenya) • Index based livestock insurance is reducing risk for pastoralists using banking, insurance and IT from private sector innovation • ”East Africa Dairy Development (EADD) project is connecting farmers to service providers and new business opportunities through a hub model • R&D partnerships under “Maziwa Zaidi” to adapt ‘hub model’ for marginalized groups in Tanzania
  • 27. Acting now, together and coherently, we can create a competitive and sustainable livestock sector in East Africa
  • 28. Africa’s livestock agenda: A right now opportunity window • Partnerships − including R&D, investment, private and public sectors − are essential. • Start with the smallholder producer. • Transform the sector to meet demand in environmentally sustainable and healthy ways. • Use and take to scale research-based successes in: − Technology (feeds, breeds, health) − Markets − New business models If we don’t act soon, importers will.
  • 29. An example of acting together: Tanzania Dairy Development Forum
  • 30. Key messages • Trends show global and Africa’s livestock industry is growing rapidly • Significant opportunities exist for East Africa’s livestock sector • Research solutions are needed to transform the livestock sector • More investments are required to take successes to scale • Acting now, together and coherently, we can create a sustainable livestock sector with global competitor advantages in East Africa