Following the international community's failure to reach an agreement on an international arms trade treaty earlier this year IHS examines the possible next steps for the United Nations as it attempts to negotiate a text that will satisfy all parties.

1. IHS Jane’s
Analysis: The uncertain future of
the Arms Trade Treaty
October 2012 ihs.com
Introduction
KEY POINTS
Amid ongoing concerns about the spread of weapons of
The global trade in small arms is often overlooked in comparison to
mass destruction, the issue of small-arms proliferation is
more high-profile proliferation issues such as weapons of mass
sometimes overshadowed, despite the immediate and destruction.
widespread security issues it creates.
Momentum has grown behind the establishment of an international
In an effort to rectify this situation, a number of arms trade treaty, culminating in a summit in July 2012 aimed at
governments, and an even greater number of non- negotiating such a deal.
governmental organisations, met on 2-27 July 2012 with Conflicting views on what the treaty should achieve meant that no
the objective of negotiating a new Arms Trade Treaty. This formal agreement was reached, and uncertainty remains over
treaty was not to restrict or control particular types of exactly what form a future treaty could take and whether it can
conventional weapons, but instead to set standards for overcome a number of challenges.
when producers of conventional arms would sell or
otherwise transfer such arms to other states, and for many work, the participating governments failed to reach
participants, to restrict or prohibit the supply of consensus (as required by their terms of reference) on a
conventional weapons to actors other than legitimate new treaty. However, they did produce a significant draft
governments. text, albeit one with a number of flaws. Understanding the
different views about what needed to be accomplished,
At the end of an intensive four-week negotiating and why the July negotiations did not produce the required
conference, preceded by several years of preparatory
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2. IHS Jane’s Analysis: The Uncertain Future of the Arms Trade Treaty
result, illustrates the complexities of the process that led to Conventional Arms and Dual-Use Goods and
negotiations. Technologies – was to promote “transparency and greater
responsibility in transfers of conventional arms” to “prevent
Sales restrictions destabilising accumulations” and to contribute to regional
Efforts to control the “export” or transfer of weapons to and international security and stability.
outsiders (“foreigners”) are about as old as organised How much the Wassenaar Arrangement has succeeded in
society. So are efforts to profit by the transfer of such this is arguable, with perhaps its greatest significance
weapons to others. Throughout most of history, the being that a group of major arms exporters agreed on
principles of such efforts have been relatively simple: to shared restrictions on their respective arms exports. Yet,
keep weapons, or at least the best weapons, from even as the Wassenaar Arrangement was setting about its
adversaries; to use weapon transfers to build and work, the international arms trade was growing and
strengthen alliances; and to profit from the sale of evolving.
weapons to foreigners when possible.
Trading arms
Over time, efforts to restrict the transfer of sophisticated
weapons extended to key technologies or even raw Although it tends to be conflated in the international
materials, with the primary motive being to prevent media, or even among export control specialists, there is
adversaries from gaining military advantage. In some not really a single international arms trade. Rather, there
cases another motive was to maintain economic are several, which are analytically separable, despite their
competitive advantage. However, the common element for inter-relationships.
these historical efforts is “us versus them” – maintaining
an advantage, whether military or economic. The predominant trade is undertaken by major arms
manufacturers. A closely related but separate sector is the
A gradual evolution from this “us versus them” paradigm manufacturers of military small-arms and light weapons
started in the late 20th century. Following the dissolution (SALW), primarily assault rifles and semi-automatic
of the Soviet Union, a number of former adversaries – pistols, with some companies specialising in crew-served
currently comprising 41 states – sought to create a new weapons, such as heavy machine-guns, mortars, and
multilateral export control regime to deal with conventional small tactical missiles (anti-tank missiles or man-portable
weapons and related dual-use items and technologies. air-defence systems). Then there is the used equipment
The shared objective of the members of the new group – market, which consists of merchants and brokers who
the Wassenaar Arrangement on Export Controls for
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3. IHS Jane’s Analysis: The Uncertain Future of the Arms Trade Treaty
trade in weapons that have been classed as “surplus” by France (USD1.7 billion), Italy (USD1.7 billion), Germany
the original military, seized during a conflict, or stolen. (USD1.6 billion), and China (USD1.3 billion). As would be
expected, the arms trade among these major exporters is
Statistics on the arms trade also require some deeper very small: the vast majority of their exports are to other
explanation. The most frequently reported statistics are for countries.
contracts signed during the previous year, primarily
between a purchasing government and either a foreign Data on legitimate exports of SALW are less widely
manufacturer or a foreign government that is directly collected and recorded than data on major military
involved in the transaction (that is, not just licensing the systems (such as combat aircraft and main battle tanks),
transfer, but acting as an agent or intermediary). For and the major players in this sector include many
purchases of major weapons systems by national countries who have little involvement in the major systems
governments, these are the most useful statistics. They trade. Data published by the Small Arms Survey, a Swiss-
are also useful for a country’s armed forces’ purchases of based independent research project, indicate that
SALW. These statistics also reflect transfers of surplus countries exporting more than USD100 million annually
equipment from a major power to a smaller ally. during the period 2001-2007 include Austria, Belgium,
Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Russia, Canada,
Data on the major suppliers of sophisticated and major Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the US.
weapons systems are routinely published, but sometimes The Survey lists another 36 countries as exporting at least
in terms of arms deliveries and sometimes in terms of USD10 million annually during this period. While this list
arms transfer agreements concluded. These different includes all the largest exporters of major weapons
metrics produce similar (but not identical) pictures in terms systems, it is notable how many countries are substantial
of rankings, but different pictures in terms of magnitude. exporters of SALW, and how relatively flat the export
As arms agreements can sometimes be more aspirational market is.
than realistic, it is more useful to look at deliveries data.
According to a recently published report by the United Data on the import side of the market is less readily
States Congressional Research Service (probably the available, and heavily skewed towards those countries
most methodologically transparent data available), in 2011 that report this information, either as arms imports or in
the US was the largest exporter of arms, delivering their customs data. The largest importers (more than
USD16.2 billion, or 36.5%, of the USD44.3 billion-worth of USD100 million per year) appear to be Canada, France,
global arms deliveries. Following the US were Russia Germany, Saudi Arabia, and the US. Anecdotal data
(USD8.7 billion), the United Kingdom (USD3.0 billion),
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4. IHS Jane’s Analysis: The Uncertain Future of the Arms Trade Treaty
indicates that a number of countries in the Middle East, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council to
Africa, and Latin America are also major importers. announce, in 1991, the Guidelines for Conventional Arms
Transfers and the establishment of a UN Register of
Another sector of the market involves private merchants Conventional Arms.
who purchase surplus equipment – sometimes including
(usually “de-militarised”) vehicles and weapons from one Voluntary reporting to the Register of arms transfers in
military and selling them to another buyer. Some of this seven weapons categories was a first, small step. The
activity is entirely legal and properly licensed, but this reporting categories included all major weapons systems,
sector can also blend into the grey and black arms but did not include SALW. The transparency of voluntary
markets. The most high-profile example of such illegal reporting was intended to prevent “excessive and
activity is the case of Viktor Bout, who was sentenced to destabilizing arms buildups” that posed a “threat to
25 years in prison by a US court in April 2012 after being national, regional and international peace and security,
found guilty of conspiracy to kill US citizens and officials, particularly by aggravating tensions and conflict
delivering anti-aircraft missiles, and aiding a terrorist situations”.
organisation. He developed his business by selling poorly
secured Soviet-era military equipment to a number of Transparency has value, but clearly governments will not
regimes in conflict-ridden countries, such as Liberia and report transfers that would attract negative attention.
the Democratic Republic of Congo. The value of trade in Even as Wassenaar and the UN Register were being set
this sector is another step below the “official”, state-to- up, the international arms trade was changing. In the
state SALW trade, but is the main source of weapons states of the former Soviet Union, military equipment was
used in civil wars and other conflicts in the developing becoming a commodity. Arms and equipment were sold
world. While much of the international attention to the for food, medicine, financial gain, or were simply stolen.
global arms trade focuses on the wider trade described Black and grey arms trafficking blossomed during this
above, it is the trafficking in this grey sector that is period.
responsible for the violence that is the focus of many
opponents of the global arms trade. Controlling the trade These black market arms merchants specialised in SALW,
in this sector has proven even more intractable. although they would supply whatever the customer sought
and could pay for. Civil conflict in Africa, and political
Taking control insurgents and drug cartels in Latin America, provided
Following the 1990-1991 Gulf War, the arms exports that ready markets for weapons, and especially SALW.
had built the Iraqi military prior to its invasion of Kuwait led
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5. IHS Jane’s Analysis: The Uncertain Future of the Arms Trade Treaty
In response to the problem, in 1997 former Costa Rican which in 2009 became an Open-Ended Working Group.
president Oscar Árias led a group of Nobel laureates in Throughout this process the US stated its opposition,
calling for an International Code of Conduct on Arms arguing that to be effective an arms trade treaty must be
Transfers to govern arms transfers. The proposed code, ratified by all major arms exporters, and many would join
which in some respects had more the form of a draft treaty the arrangement only if the treaty were so weak as to
than a voluntary instrument, stipulated that any country have little substance. Then, in October 2009, US
wishing to purchase arms must meet certain criteria, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced a reversal of
including the promotion of democracy, the protection of this position. The UN General Assembly promptly passed
human rights, and transparency in military spending. It a new resolution changing the Open-Ended Working
would also prohibit arms sales to countries that support Group into a series of preparatory committee meetings to
terrorism and to states that are engaged in aggression do the final groundwork for a four-week negotiation
against other states or peoples. This call was gradually summit.
taken up by a number of non-governmental organisations
(NGOs), which collectively formed a coalition to advocate In the fourth week, the conference president, UN
for an Arms Trade Treaty. ambassador Roberto Moritán of Argentina, circulated a
draft reflecting the work of two working groups and his
In 2001, the first UN Conference on the Illicit Trade in own consultations. Discussions among delegations
Small Arms and Light Weapons in All Its Aspects met and indicated that while few felt the product was what they had
established the UN Programme of Action (PoA) to come hoping to achieve, a majority of participating
Prevent, Combat and Eradicate the Illicit Trade in Small governments supported the adoption of this text as the
Arms and Light Weapons. The UN PoA is voluntary and treaty. The NGOs that had long worked to get these
obliges participating states to take specific actions to negotiations, but which found serious deficiencies in the
control export, import, and domestic stocks of SALW, and president’s draft, nonetheless lent their support to adopt it
to support international actions to this end. as a treaty.
Towards a Treaty Other states judged the text seriously flawed, although for
varying and often contradictory reasons. The last question
With international momentum gathering towards for the conference would be whether there was the
agreement on an International Arms Trade Treaty, the UN consensus required by the terms of reference to adopt this
General Assembly met in December 2006 and adopted a text and open it for signature and ratification. Some states
resolution titled Towards an Arms Trade Treaty. This led did not support the text and appeared ready to break
to the formation of a Group of Governmental Experts,
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6. IHS Jane’s Analysis: The Uncertain Future of the Arms Trade Treaty
consensus, but as the second state to break consensus, already voluntary reporting of transfers), and it was added
not the first. to the internal Wassenaar Arrangement reporting after a
long debate. Given that many African and Latin American
On the last day, the US emphasised that it wanted to join states had come specifically to control SALW, this was an
consensus and was aiming for a treaty the US Senate important step.
would ratify. The US statement identified specific
provisions where the draft text was inadequate, and called Many of those governments, and the NGOs, had also
for further negotiations. Russia also called for further sought a ninth category to be included – ammunition. This
negotiations. The conference president had not yet called met strong opposition from many arms exporters. The
for consensus, but the question had been decided. compromise provided that ammunition exports should be
evaluated using the same criteria as arms, something
More than 90 states responded by jointly stating that they many, but by no means all, arms exporters already do.
were prepared to adopt the draft text as it stood, and
expressing frustration at the outcome. The NGO CRP.1 also establishes criteria for evaluating a proposed
community also expressed frustration and offered strong arms transfer to determine whether to authorise it or deny
support for the draft text, even though it did not include it. This includes whether the exported arms could be used
provisions they had previously identified as key to a to commit or facilitate serious violation of international
successful treaty. humanitarian law, international human rights law, or a
“terror offense”. States are also to consider whether the
Limited progress export might be diverted from authorised use and to take
Despite the frustration expressed in New York, the draft “appropriate measures” to prevent diversion to the illicit
text (officially termed A/CONF.217/CRP.1, or simply market or for unauthorised end use. However, these
CRP.1) was not the feared lowest common denominator, stipulations are tempered by the fact that it “shall not
but neither was it as robust and comprehensive as many prejudice” a state’s obligations under “other instruments”
had desired. or be grounds for voiding contractual obligations under
“defence co-operation agreements”. These criteria fall far
The draft makes some important advances on previous short of those in, for example, the EU’s Code of Conduct
international efforts, such as including SALW as an eighth on arms exports.
category of arms transfer. SALW had been added as an
eighth reporting category for the UN Register only by Additionally, CRP.1 calls for measures to regulate transit
making it voluntary (that is, more voluntary than the and transshipment of arms, but does not indicate what
characteristics such regulations should have. For
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7. IHS Jane’s Analysis: The Uncertain Future of the Arms Trade Treaty
instance, it does not outline to what degree a transit or July 2012 conference completed its mandate, so an
transshipment state has the right, much less obligation, to entirely new conference would be technically necessary,
judge the appropriateness of a transfer. While states are but the resolution could easily mandate that the new
required to keep records of transfers authorised over the conference pick up working on CRP.1, as suggested by
previous 10 years, making such records public is not the US and Russia.
addressed. Voluntary reporting to the UN Register may be
deemed to be adequate. The seven original sponsors (or others) might instead
propose that the UN General Assembly formally adopt
As is increasingly common in multilateral treaties, CRP.1 CRP.1 as the Arms Trade Treaty and open it for signature
would establish a staff, separate from the UN Secretariat, and ratification. As the US and Russia have said that
to assist with implementation. How this staff would have CRP.1 is not acceptable in its current form, this would
either the competence or the resources to provide such represent a decision to proceed without the world’s two
assistance is not addressed. Finally, verification is not largest arms exporters, together accounting for around
addressed or plausible, as this is a treaty to regulate 45% of global arms deliveries in 2011. As some other
trade, not to restrict the arms states possess or build. major arms exporters may also remain outside the treaty,
given the reduced international pressure on them after the
Conclusion US and Russian decisions, the result could be a treaty
The UN General Assembly will take up the report from the purporting to regulate the arms trade but not accepted by
July conference. The report will initially be discussed in those responsible for the majority of that trade.
the First Committee, which will send a recommendation Other states, perhaps dissatisfied with whatever the First
for the General Assembly. Committee recommends, might seek to take the entire
It is likely that this recommendation will be driven by a process outside the UN framework, as was done with the
draft resolution submitted by the seven sponsors of the landmines convention. Such an “Ottawa” process would
original 2006 resolution (Argentina, Australia, Costa Rica, mean that neither the United States nor Russia, and
Finland, Japan, Kenya, and the UK). Other states might almost certainly some other important arms exporters,
submit competing resolutions proposing different would participate. Fearing a “rump treaty” with little or no
outcomes, although this is less likely. practical effect, the original sponsors and many others
would most likely oppose such a move.
The key question is whether the seven original sponsors
will choose to propose a new negotiating conference. The As of October 2012 the UK, as the leader of the seven
original sponsors, has not made a clear or authoritative
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8. IHS Jane’s Analysis: The Uncertain Future of the Arms Trade Treaty
statement of its desired next step, nor have the other co-
sponsors. The 67th regular session of the UN General
Assembly Plenary formally opened on 18 September and
action on Ambassador Moritán’s report will begin in
October. With key states either still considering their
course of action or holding their decisions closely, the only
certainties are that there will be some political fireworks in
New York, and some supporters of the Arms Trade Treaty
will again be sorely disappointed. Which will be
disappointed and for what reason remains to be seen.
launch.
This analysis was first published in IHS Jane’s Intelligence
Review in October 2012 and is available with additional
related analysis within IHS Jane’s Military & Security
Assessments Intelligence Centre.
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9. IHS Jane’s Analysis: The Uncertain Future of the Arms Trade Treaty
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