North Korea has successfully launched its Unha-3 SLV and put a satellite into orbit, US officials have confirmed. Seoul and Washington condemned the launch, which is widely seen as a part of North Korea’s ICBM programme, while China expressed ‘regret’. IHS examines the impact and regional implications.

1. IHS Jane’s
Analysis: North Korea’s
Satellite Launch
December 2012 ihs.com
Introduction
KEY POINTS
North Korea successfully launched a Unha-3 satellite
North Korea has successfully launched its Unha-3 SLV and put a
launch vehicle (SLV) from its Sohae facility on 12
satellite into orbit, US officials have confirmed
December, putting a satellite into orbit almost eight
months to the day after a similar attempt ended in failure. Seoul and Washington condemned the launch, which is widely
seen as a part of North Korea’s ICBM programme, while China
“The second version of satellite Kwangmyongsong-3 expressed ‘regret’
successfully lifted off from the Sohae Space Centre in
Cholsan county, North Pyongan province, by carrier rocket American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD)
Unha-3 on Wednesday,” the official KCNA news agency officials in Colorado. “The missile was tracked on a
said in a statement. “The satellite entered its preset orbit.” southerly azimuth,” NORAD said in a statement. “Initial
indications are that the first stage fell into the West Sea.
Pyongyang’s satellite programme is seen as a front for its The second stage was assessed to fall into the Philippine
development of a ballistic missile that could deliver a Sea. Initial indications are that the missile deployed an
nuclear warhead to the United States. object that appeared to achieve orbit.”
The South Korean military detected the launch at 09:49 Seoul also confirmed that the SLV had put an object into
hours local time and confirmed that the first stage of the orbit but remained cautious about whether the satellite
rocket had fallen in the West Sea, as Pyongyang had launch had been a success. “The South Korean and the
planned. The launch’s success was confirmed by North US military evaluated the object loaded on the rocket just
© 2012 IHS 1 ihs.com

2. IHS Jane’s Analysis: North Korea’s Satellite Launch
entered the orbit,” Ministry of National Defence (MND) East China Sea at around 10:01 hours local time.
spokesman Kim Min-seok said at a press conference. Raytheon Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) surface-
“Although it entered the orbit, we have to wait and see to-air missiles deployed to Okinawa and other locations
whether it can continue to function normally.” had not intercepted the rocket, he added.
US National Security Council Spokesman Tommy Vietor The 12 December launch is North Korea’s second attempt
described the launch as “yet another example of North to put a satellite into orbit this year. A Unha-3 launch on
Korea’s pattern of irresponsible behaviour”. 13 April failed when the first of the rocket’s three stages
broke up before it reached its intended altitude.
“North Korea’s launch today - using ballistic missile
technology despite express prohibitions by United Nations Analysis
Security Council [UNSC] resolutions - is a highly
provocative act that threatens regional security, directly North Korea’s successful launch of the Unha-3 is a major
violates UNSC resolutions 1718 and 1874, contravenes surprise for analysts, especially after recent
North Korea’s international obligations, and undermines announcements by Pyongyang and satellite imagery of
the global non-proliferation regime,” Vietor added. the Sohae site suggested that a launch was some weeks
away.
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak held an
emergency meeting at the Blue House in Seoul with key North Korea announced on 10 December that scientists
ministers, after which his government “strongly had found “a technical deficiency in the first-stage control
condemned” the launch. “South Korea and the United engine module” of the three-stage rocket that had forced
States will maintain a firm deterrence posture and closely them to extend the launch window by a week to 29
monitor further provocation,” the MND said in a statement. December. It is unclear whether the “technical deficiency”
“We have a shared consensus that North Korea’s long- had been resolved or this statement was an example of
range missile launch is a clear violation of UN resolutions.” misdirection by Pyongyang.
In Beijing, a spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs What is clear is that the launch of the Unha-3 is politically
said China “regretted the launch in spite of the extensive and technologically significant for Kim Jong-un, who
concerns of the international community.” assumed power in December 2011 following the death of
his father, Kim Jong-il.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Osamu Fujimura said
that the SLV had passed over Okinawa Prefecture in the In regional terms it has shown that it can conduct a
successful rocket test despite UNSC sanctions and
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3. IHS Jane’s Analysis: North Korea’s Satellite Launch
international opprobrium, including pressure from China. Regional implications
Domestically, the test provides Kim Jong-un with a much- The launch comes at a politically sensitive time for South
needed propaganda boost following April’s launch failure Korea, which goes to the polls to elect a new president on
and what North Korea watchers believe have been a
19 December, and last month suffered a satellite launch
series of disputes with the military. “This is a major failure of its own when the maiden launch of its Naro SLV
success for him,” Paik Wooyeal of Sungkyunkwan
was halted 17 minutes before liftoff due to a malfunction in
University in Seoul told IHS. “It will help Kim to re- the second-stage solid rocket.
establish his grip over the elite at a time when a lot of
high-ranking officials have been complaining or purged.” The launch will also put pressure on proponents of the
current sanctions regime, who will need to explain why
In technological terms, the launch moves North Korea a
two sets of UNSC sanctions have failed to prevent North
major step closer to developing an intercontinental ballistic Korea from developing ballistic missile technology. It also
missile (ICBM). It demonstrates the successful
leaves US President Barack Obama with precious few
development of a three-stage rocket design, which, options, Paik said. “It provides Kim with increased
although not a ballistic missile, would form the basis of the leverage in negotiations [with the United States].
propulsion element of such a weapon. Previous launches
Moreover, there is nothing serious that the United States
of the Unha SLV family have tested technology to be used can do to stop him,” Paik said.
in the Taepo Dong-2 ballistic missile, although these have
been dogged by failures, particularly during separation of Finally, the launch is a major headache for China’s new
the motor stages. leadership, which will have to decide how to react. “It is
not only that the new leadership is assuming power, but
It is therefore highly probable that the successful launch of
China is also looking to chart a new course in its relations
the Unha-3 will accelerate development of the Taepo with North Korea that is different from the sometimes
Dong-3, which, if deployed, would have a range of about
frustrated dialogue that it had with Kim Jong-il,” a Beijing-
8,000 km. While engineers still have elements such as
based analyst told IHS.
guidance and re-entry vehicle testing to achieve, today’s
launch remains a significant development in North Korea’s Beijing viewed Kim Jong-il as “a kind of crazy nephew”,
pursuit of a nuclear deterrent. another Beijing-based analyst said. “You keep spending
money on him and hope he will amount to something, but
you are never sure. China is hoping for a more stable and
predictable dialogue with his son.”
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4. IHS Jane’s Analysis: North Korea’s Satellite Launch
Kim Jong-un has been invited to make an official state
visit to China, but a date has yet to be set. The timing and
circumstances of that visit “will be some gauge as to how
displeased Beijing is and to what degree they will allow
this missile firing to impact their relationship with North
Korea at this stage”, the second analyst said.
This analysis was first published online in IHS Jane’s
Defence Weekly in December 2012, and is available with
additional related analysis within the IHS Jane’s Military &
Security Assessments and IHS Jane’s Chemical,
Biological, Radiological & Nuclear Assessments
Intelligence Centres.
© 2012 IHS 4 ihs.com

5. IHS Jane’s Analysis: North Korea’s Satellite Launch
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