The document discusses methods and results for estimating global mortality, including maternal mortality. It describes using multiple data sources and statistical modeling to estimate mortality rates for countries lacking complete vital registration systems. Key findings include a 34% reduction in under-five mortality from 1990-2008, with declines seen in most regions. Maternal mortality declined from 342,900 deaths in 2008, though progress has been uneven across countries and hampered by HIV in some areas.
The mortality work group successfully published three methods papers in PLoS Medicine in April 2010, exceeding the plans delineated for FY10. The first, Measuring Under-Five Mortality: Validation of New Lost-Cost Methods , describes significantly improved methods for estimating under-five mortality using summary birth histories. It introduces a new model which enables more accurate and timely estimates for child mortality in systems without complete vital registration data, and complete birth history data. This model will also provide more accurate sub-national child mortality estimates when applied to country census data. The second article, What Can We Conclude from Death Registration? Improved Methods for Evaluating Completeness , systematically evaluates the many variants of the standard death distribution methods used to assess completeness of vital registration systems. It presents three variants of the death distribution methods that perform the best in most situations. This newly developed model has been put to use in generating the adult mortality estimates mentioned above. The third paper, Measuring Adult Mortality Using Sibling Survival: A New Analytical Method and New Results for 44 Countries, 1974-2006, presents a new method which improves estimation of mortality rates directly from empirical data sources for many countries. The model produces much more plausible estimates of adult mortality and will be highly applicable to all large nationally representative survey programs.
Mention predictive validity testing
545 surveys with summary birth history microdata or tabulated data 256 surveys with complete birth history microdata DDM on household deaths