3. Planetary and societal
risks
Why we need planetary stewardship
Professor Sybil Seitzinger
Executive Director
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
4. Antarctic ice core
Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008.
Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008.
Carbon
dioxide
Methane
Modern humans appear in Africa
Carbon
dioxide
Temperature
Methane
5. Antarctic ice core
Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008.
Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008.
Carbon
dioxide
Methane
Beyond natural boundaries
6. Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland)
And S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004
Human Development and
Glacial-Interglacial Cycling
Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland) and S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”,
2004
First migration of
fully modern
humans out of Africa
Modern humans
arrive in
Australia
Migrations of fully
modern humans from
South Asia to Europe
Beginning
of agriculture
Great European
civilizations:
Greek, Roman
The Holocene
10. Population
US Bureau of the Census (2000) International database
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
11. Total real GDP
Nordhaus (1997) The economics of new goods. University of Chicago Press
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
12. Foreign direct investment
World Bank (2002) data and statistics
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
13. Damming of rivers
World Commission on Dams (2000)
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
14. Water use
Shiklomanov (1990) Global Water Resources
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
19. Telephones
Canning (2001) A database of world infrastructure stocks, 1950-95 World Bank
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
20. International tourism
World Tourism Organization (2001) Tourism industry trends
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
21. Shrimp farm production
IAnnual shrimp production as a proxy for coastal zone alteration. Sources: WRI
(2003) A guide to world resources, 2002-2004
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
22. Domesticated land
Amount of land converted to pasture and cropland. Source: Klein Goldewijk and Battjes (1997)
National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). Bilthoven, Netherlands
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
27. Northern hemisphere average surface
temperature
Mann et al Geophys Res Lett 26(6): 759-762
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
28. Ozone depletion
percentage total column ozone loss over Antarctica, using the average annual total
column ozone, 330, as a base. Image: J.D. Shanklin, British Antarctic Survey
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
29. Tropical rainforest and woodland loss
Loss of tropical rainforest and woodland, as estimated for tropical Africa, Latin America and South and
Southeast Asia. Sources: Richards (1990) In: The Earth as transformed by human action, Cambridge
University Press IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
30. Natural climatic disasters
Decadal frequency of great floods (one-in-100-year events) after 1860 for basins larger than 200 000 km2 with
observations that span at least 30 years. Source: Milly et al. (2002) Nature 415:514-517 IGBP synthesis:
Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
31. Fisheries exploitation
Percentage of global fisheries either fully exploited, overfished or collapsed. Source:
FAOSTAT (2002) Statistical databases
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
32. Coastal zone nitrogen flux
Model-calculated partitioning of the human-induced nitrogen perturbation fluxes in the global coastal
margin for the period since 1850. Source: Mackenzie et al. (2002) Chem. Geology 190:13-32
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
33. Biodiversity loss
Mathematically calculated rate of extinction. Source: Wilson (1992) The diversity of life, the Penguin Press.
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
44. Planetary and societal
risks
Why we need planetary stewardship
Professor Sybil Seitzinger
Executive Director
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
www.igbp.net
Sybil.seitzinger@igbp.kva.se
Editor's Notes
This great acceleration really started in the 50s
Beyond climate
The financial crisis has reduced global economic resilience, while increasing geopolitical tension and heightened social concerns suggest that both governments and societies are less able than ever to cope with global challenges.”
Munich Re reported 2010 was a record year for natural catastrophes. 950. 90% were weather related.
Russia saw an unprecedented drought affecting its grain harvest. Export bans led to food price hikes sparking tension in Tunisia, which spread to Egypt and the rest of the middle east.
Interconnected risks.
