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Understanding diversity in irrigation potential
              within Nigeria

     Hiroyuki Takeshima, Hua Xia, Liang You, Hyacinth Edeh (IFPRI)


                  NSSP National Conference 2012:
 ―Informing Nigeria’s Agricultural Transformation Agenda with Policy
                 Analysis and Research Evidence‖

                 Abuja, Nigeria – November 13-14, 2012
Research questions and methodologies
Research questions
• How much irrigation potentials are there in
  Nigeria?
• How does such potential vary across regions?
• Which type of irrigation system is transforming
  farm households in Nigeria?

Methodologies
• Irrigation potential – spatial diversity
• Farm household and irrigator typologies
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Irrigation in Nigeria – current picture

                            Total cultivated area
                                                           Irrigated
       million                          32.1
        ha                                                 Not irrigated
                   0.9


                                                      Public (equipped)
                         0.2

                                               0.67   Private (equipped)
  million ha
                  0.03                                Unequipped
                                                      Fadama

Source: FAO (2012)
                                       0.9
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IRRIGATION POTENTIALS


INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Irrigation potentials
• How accurate can they be? – What might affect the exact potentials
  in different locations?
     • Location
     • Common resources / externality – water use within each basin
     • Imperfect market integration
• Maximum potential from 4 types of technologies
     •   diesel pumps
     •   treadle pumps
     •   communal river diversion
     •   small reservoirs




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Analytical framework

                                  A: Ex-ante Spatial Analysis
                                   Spatial disaggregation of
                                   agricultural development
                                    domains and spillover
                                            potential


     B: Biophysical Modeling (SWAT)                  C: Economic Modeling (DREAM)

    Hydrology                 Plant growth                Predict the crop price effect
                                                          from smallholder irrigations



                                     D: Benefit-cost Analysis
                      Crop mix optimization, return to irrigation
                      investment, and environmental impacts (e.g. water
                      use increase).
 Source: Xie et al. (2012)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Key spatial unit of analyses:
         Market shed and Hydrological Basin




        Market shed                            River Basin




Source: Authors (Hua Xie & Liang You)

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Dry season irrigation potential

                                                   Total irrigation potential area
                                                   = 3.165 million ha

                                                   Average potential = 1,000 USD / ha

                                                   Net revenue        Area (1000 Cumulative
                                                   (USD/ha, year)     ha)          share (%)
                                                   <500                         57            2
                                                   500-1000                  2,081           68
                                                   1000-2000                   793           93
                                 USD / ha          2000-3000                    99           96
                                     High : 8800
                                                   3000-4000                    76           98
                                     Low : 0
                                                   4000-5000                    34           99
                                                   >5000                        25         100
 Source: Simulation by Hua & Liang                 Total                     3,165




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FARM LEVEL TYPOLOGY
  ANALYSIS

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Research question
Research question
• Does irrigation transform farm households?
• Which irrigation types are more likely to have
  transformed farm households?

Objective
• Construct key hypotheses

Farm level analyses – typology
• Farm household level diversity
• Key farm household characteristics needed for using
  irrigation – despite some potential, why only certain types
  of farm households use irrigation?
• Key farm behavioral characteristics
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Methodology -
• Cluster analysis
• Living Standard Measurement Survey –
  Integrated Survey on Agriculture, 2010 (World
  Bank, National Bureau of Statistics in Nigeria)
• Approximately 2000 farm households after
  dropping outliers (1100 for the North, 900 for the
  South)




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Producer typology
Types of variables used

                Behaviors                                   Resources
-Crop patterns                                 -- Rainfall variation
-Input use intensity (fertilizer, agro-        -- Soil types
chemicals, seed purchase)                      -- Farming systems (North / South)
-Production scale (farm size, sales)           -- Proximity to rivers / dams
-Irrigation                                    -- Population density / access to town
-Mechanization (tractor / animal               -- Household characteristics
traction)                                      -- Assets
- Market orientation                           -- Non-farm income earning activities
                                               -- Labor cost (real wage)




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE                                     Page 12
Variables used for cluster analysis
Categories          Variables
Agro-ecological     Agroecological zones – FAO farming system (LGA average)
(Natural resources) Soil type (LGA average)
                    Historical rainfall variation (LGA average)
                    Distance to major rivers (LGA average)
Market access       Total population density in the region where the household is located
                    Distance to towns of 20 thousand inhabitants
Resources (Human Household size
resources)          Level of education and literacy of household head
                    Gender of household head
Resources (Assets) Total value of assets not including land
                    Size of livestock equivalent stock or value of animal stock owned
Labor resource      Real LGA median wage of land clearing / preparation (– ratio to LGA
                    maize price)
Land tenure         Whether own any of the farm plots
Production scale    Total rainfed area
Production scale    Whether using irrigation or not
under irrigation    Total irrigated area


 (continue to next slides)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Variables used for cluster analysis
Categories           Variables
Production intensity Overall input intensity measured as the total value of inputs per
                     hectare of farm area or cultivated area
                         Fertilizer
                     - Seed (value of purchased seed only), pesticide, herbicide
                     Animal traction (Number of days per ha)
                     Whether using tractor or not
                     Tractor (Number of tractors used per ha)
                     Whether hired labor for harvesting
                     Whether the household took out any loan / credit (including non-
                     agricultural credit) from either formal or informal sources
Income, non-farm     Total expenditure per person
activities           Whether having non-farm income
                     Remittance income last month – other types of income (savings
                     interest, rental of property etc)




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Separate by North and South

Pastoral

Agro-pastoral –
millet / sorghum


Cereal – root crop
mixed

                                                North
Root crop                                       system


Tree crop                                       South
                                                system
Coastal artisanal


Figure 1. Farming systems in Nigeria
Source: Dixon et al. (2001)
 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Agro-ecological / Socio-economic factors


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                    ! !                      !!                  !! ! !
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   ! ! !
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                                                                     !




Major waterways / dams in                                                                  Time of travel to nearest
         Nigeria                                                                         town with population of 20k

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Types of farm households using irrigation in
                     Nigeria - North
 Category                           Maize based system with          Coarse grains /           Rice /
                                       sorghum, legumes                 legume               vegetable
 % share among northern farmers        15            4         14        35            30            3
 Real wage (daily wage/maize           11           24         11         8            10            8
 price)
 Fertilizer (Naira/ha)               4500            0    8400         4000             0         8200
 Chemicals (USD/ha)                  2200      3350       3900         1800        430            8600
 Farm size                            0.7        1.0           0.7      0.7            0.9         0.4
 % using tractor                        5           10         15         4             3           20
 % using irrigation                    10            0          1         4             4           63
 % with non-farm income source         51           26         67        69            47           73
 Household nonfood expenditure         36           34         57        38            30           43
 (annual/pc)
 Household assets (USD)               198       204           510       295        149             271
 Distance to the nearest river       .017       .017          .017     .017        .017           .017
 Distance to the nearest dam (km)      58           48         40        43            82           80
 % selling their harvest               62           76         65        60            57           73
 % selling or giving as gift           89           88         84        85            80           93
 Source: Author’s calculations based on LSMS-ISA.

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Types of farm households using irrigation in
                     Nigeria - South
 Category                           Cassava              Cassava, yam, grains   Cocoa     Rice
                                                                                system
 % share among northern farmers      30             41          9           9         8           4
 Real wage (daily wage/maize         10             10         10          11        11          17
 price)
 Fertilizer (Naira/ha)                0              0          0           0         0     9000
 Chemicals (USD/ha)                   0         300          1420        2800      5000    15000
 Farm size                           0.2        0.2            0.1        1.3       1.3          2.6
 % using tractor                      0              0          0           0         1      100
 % using irrigation                   0              1          0           3         9          29
 % with non-farm income source       32             54         65          29        82          80
 Household nonfood expenditure       49             78        109          41       108      111
 (annual/pc)
 Household assets (USD)              88         308           310         249       253      671
 Distance to the nearest river      .017       .016           .017       .016      .017      .017
 Distance to the nearest dam (km)   140         130           180          64        38          43
 % selling their harvest             70             68         72          87        97          90
 % selling or giving as gift         74             74         81          91        97          93
 Source: Author’s calculations based on LSMS-ISA.

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Major types of irrigators in Nigeria

 Rice irrigators                               Vegetable    Coarse grains /
                                               irrigators   legumes
                                                            irrigators
 Small-scale             Tractorized larger    Dry season   Rainy season
                         scale                              Supplementary

• Coarse grains / legumes irrigation – mostly supplementary, little
  change in inputs intensity




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Types of farm households using irrigation in
                  Nigeria
• Descriptions of key farm households using irrigation
     • North
        • Small-scale rice / vegetable growers
        • Rainy season supplementary irrigation of coarse grains / legumes
        • Some substitutions of tractors vs (irrigation + animal traction)
     • South
        • Larger scale rice irrigators producing rainfed maize and cassava
        • Their production behaviors are distinctive, but unclear whether it is
           because of irrigation. More likely due to mechanization
     • Effects of irrigation – some but may not be substantial




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Concluding hypotheses
• Irrigation potentials vary across locations. Support for
  irrigation needs to focus on areas with high potentials,
  instead of medium to low potentials.

• Irrigation for rice / vegetables can be one of the options
  to transform farm households in Nigeria

• Irrigation of coarse grains / legumes
     • mostly supplementary
     • Limited effect in changing inputs intensity, transforming
       farm households


• Does irrigation really transform agriculture ? How ?
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
UDP Technology in Nigeria

          Prof. B. Tarfa & Brian Kiger



         NSSP National Conference 2012:
  “Informing Nigeria’s Agricultural Transformation
 Agenda with policy analysis and research evidence”

              Abuja, Nigeria – November 13-14, 2012


INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
UDP Technology… Agenda

   What is UDP technology?
   What are USG?
   Benefits
   Challenges
   Building Demand
   Enabling Supply
   Moving Forward
What is UDP technology?

Urea Deep Placement (UDP) is the practice
of placing briquetted urea 5-7cm deep in
puddled transplanted rice fields, at spacing
of 40 cms.
           40 cm
What are USGs?
 Urea Super Granules (USGs) are applied
  once a growing season— a week after
  transplanting rice seedlings.
 One USG is applied geometrically between 4
  rice stands.
 They are oval compacted pellets produced by
  briquetting granular urea using briquetting
  machines to 1.8 gram or 2.7 grams.
 Notore Chemical industries is currently
  producing and marketing 2.7g in 10 kg bags.
 USG releases N slowly and is placed out of
  the reach of weeds’ roots.
The briquette product




Urea Briquettes           NPK Briquettes
                    Urea + Diammonium phosphate +
                           Muriate of Potash
How do farmers apply UDP technology?
Comparison of N Balance in Rice Fields

   Urea Split Application                 Urea Deep Placement
                                           Unaccounted
                                               4%




                 In Grain       In Soil
                   23%           31%                            In Grain
                                                                  42%
Unaccounted
   35%               In Straw
                        9%


           In Soil
            33%
                                            In Straw
                                              23%
Comparison of Urea Applications

2 Out of 3 Bags of Urea Lost using Split Application




 1 Out of 3 Bags of Urea Lost using USG
What are the benefits of UDP
technology?
 Increases efficiency of N use in rice by placing it in
  the soil—reducing N loss through gaseous
  emissions and/or floodwater run-off. In broadcast
  application of urea, 40% of N fertilizers volatizes
  into the atmosphere.

 Reduces weed competition as fertilizer is placed
  near rice plants’ roots.

 Nitrogen use efficiency under irrigated rice
  increases by 40%.

 Irrigated rice crop yields increase up to 50% (Niger
  State 2012).
UDP Benefits Rice Sector Stakeholders

For farmers:                     For the environment:
• Decrease in production cost    • Reduces Nitrogen
• Increase in yield              runoff and volatization
• Increase in profit
 For entrepreneurs:
 • New area of business & profit
 • Opportunity to contribute to national development

 For the national economy:
 • Increase in rural employment opportunities
 • Increase in rice production
What are the challenges of UDP
technology adoption in Nigeria?


 Limited Supply and Demand of USG
 UDP Best Practices are not well-known to
  rice farmers
 Many farmers complain that USG
  application is labor-intensive
 Farmers incorrectly apply USGs to other
  crops and/or do not practice rice
  cultivation and field management best
  practices, limiting USG’s yield effect.
In 2012…




The FMARD (via NPFS), Notore and MARKETS
II began collaborating on expanding the Supply
and Demand of Urea Super Granules in
targeted Nigerian rice producing regions.
Building Demand:
2012 UDP Technology Transfer Centers (TTCs)




                                   Kebbi 2012




                                        Kebbi 2012
2012 Dry Season Yields
                        with Transplanted Rice

                 UDP (Mt/Ha)*                        Farmers' Practice (Mt/Ha)*
                 Difference (Mt/Ha)
                                       7.74
                 8.00
                                                                      7.07
                         6.79                           6.68
                 7.00
                                          5.71
                 6.00
Yields (Mt/Ha)




                 5.00       4.18                                         4.38

                 4.00                                      3.263.42
                                2.61                                         2.69
                 3.00
                                              2.03
                 2.00

                 1.00

                   -
                         Gombe          Kebbi            Niger        Average
Cost-Benefit Analysis from 2012 UDP
Demonstrations
                             Farmer's Practice              UDP
                                                  447,051
           450,000

           400,000

           350,000
                         311,813
                               299,150
           300,000
                                           267,847
           250,000
   Naira




           200,000
                                                                     147,900
           150,000

           100,000

             50,000

                 -

            (50,000)   Production Costs   Harvest Revenue     Overall Profit
                                                             (43,966)
In 2012, MARKETS II facilitated…
  • 3 Technology Transfer Centers (TTCs)
    managed by rice farmers and state ADP
    officers;
  • Trained more than 2,000 farmers (including
    Notore staff) on UDP technology best practices
    in 2012;
  • Developed training curriculums to improve
    dissemination of USG benefits to farmers for
    coming seasons;
  • Partnered with Notore and the FMARD (via
    NPFS) on supplying USG to pilot rice growing
    markets.
Building Supply: Notore’s Commercial
Production of USG in 2012
Distribution (by state) of USG Sold in 2012


                   30

                   25
   USG Sold (MT)

                   20

                   15

                   10

                   5

                   0




                        2012 Pilot States
In 2012, Notore…
 Developed a production line for briquetting
  urea, packaging and shipping it to select
  retailers;
 Developed supply channels of USG to
  targeted rice grower regions in Nigeria;
 Sold 75 Mt of USG in 10kg bags (7,500 unit
  sales);
 Developed agro dealer demonstration plots
  after attending the MARKETS II trainings at
  TTCs.
Moving Forward


 Work with old and new partners to expand
  USG supply while continuing to develop and
  expand market demand
 Explore USG application rates on other crops
  (soya, maize, tomatoes, sorghum)
 Explore briquetting NPK options
 Develop a mechanized applicator to facilitate
  labor of USG application
Thank you
The role of information and
          social networks in technology
          adoption: A case study of Urea
          Deep Placement technology

   Oluyemisi Kuku (IFPRI), Saweda Liverpool-Tasie (MSU),
                   Akeem Ajibola (IFPRI)


         NSSP National Conference 2012:
  “Informing Nigeria’s Agricultural Transformation
 Agenda with policy analysis and research evidence”

              Abuja, Nigeria – November 13-14, 2012


INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Presentation Outline
   Introduction
   Factors that affect technology adoption
   Social Networks and social learning
   UDP
   Farmer field day visits
    • Farmer’s perceptions
    • Village promoters
 Lessons learned
 Future steps
Introduction
 The agricultural sector is crucial to the Nigerian
  economy
   • Largest employer
   • Food self sufficiency
 Agricultural productivity is low – working in agricultural
  sector is hard and unrewarding
   • Agronomic factors (e.g seed quality)
   • Farm management
        poor production technologies
        outdated farming methods

 Many technological innovations that can dramatically
  increase productivity
   • How to encourage adoption?
Adoption Decisions

 Most adoption studies in Nigeria use characteristics
  of the farm as well as demographic characteristics
  of farm households to predict adoption.
 Information as a factor growing in importance
   • often proxied by some measure of farmer contact
     with extension agents, or membership of farmer’s
     organization of some sort
   • farmers characterized as passive recipients of
     information from change agents e.g extension
     officers or sales agents representing producers
 These measures not robust enough to capture
  important information about adoption decisions
Social Networks and social Learning
 Social networks: systemic setups
  characterized by agents that develop, diffuse
  and use innovations, their interactions, and
  structures and rules
 Farmers can learn by doing or learn from
  others (Bandiera and Rasul, 2006).
 In the “learning from others” model:
   • learn through collective
     experimentation, discussion and persuasion
   • direct observation of neighbors’ experiments
Social Networks and social Learning
 While farmers learn from others, they do not
  learn from all farmers.
 Networks which involve more purposeful
  interactions (like friends) are more likely than
  mere spatial links (like neighbors who may or
  may not be friends) to appropriately
  disseminate information
 Not much information on the process of social
  learning in Nigeria :
   • Relevant studies treat farmers as passive
     recipients of information
Urea Deep Placement technology
 placement of 1-3 grams of urea supergranules or
  briquettes at a 7-10 centimeters (cm) soil depth
  shortly after the paddy is transplanted.
 Importance of irrigation
Urea Deep Placement technology
 Benefits
   • Lower costs:
       Reduction in fertilizer costs per hectare
        due to only one application of urea
       Reduction in weeding costs (weed only
        once)
   • Decrease in Nitrogen losses (40%)
   • Increase in yield (25-30 %)
Exploratory field work

 Farmer field days in Gombe and
  Niger
 Notore, USAID markets, IFDC
 Qualitative interviews with
  •   About 10 farmers in Niger and Gombe
  •   The main agrodealer in Niger
  •   Several Notore officials
  •   Relevant ADP extension agents
Exploratory field work


Farmer’s practice   UDP technology
Benefits identified by farmers

 Better yield
 Faster growth
 Less fertilizer use – for one farmer it
  was 6kg of USG as opposed to 20kg
  of normal fertilizer that he used
  previously.
 Lower overall labor costs – apply
  fertilizer only once.
Benefits identified by farmers
 Hands on learning: Many of the farmers were
  also able to tell us clearly the steps required
  to utilize UDP, even those who were not
  demonstration farmers.
 New associated technologies and methods:
  the farmers learned about transplanting and
  dry season irrigation, and also appeared to be
  very excited about this information
Social networks and social learning:
The Village promoter
 A unique blend of social networks and commercial
  motivation to propagate a new technology.
 In Niger:
   • a model farmer, open to innovative practices, very
     popular, very well respected and well liked.
   • Called a village meeting to propagate the technology.
     Everybody we interviewed pointed to him as the source of
     their knowledge.
   • He has credibility because he also uses the technology on his
     crops in addition to selling
   • We are liaising with him as we plan a return trip
 In Gombe – perhaps not as effective. Farmers did not
  know that USG was available locally even though they
  expressed a wish to purchase.
The village promoter (Niger State)




             Fari Muhammed Shesi
Lessons learned
 Demonstration plots: An excellent tool being used
  by IFDC, and USAID markets. The farmers were
  very excited by the results of the use of UDP
  even on the look of the plants. They were very
  excited and enthused about what they saw and
  vowed to adopt for the rainy season.
 Hands on learning: Many of the farmers were
  also able to tell us clearly the steps required to
  utilize UDP, even those who were not
  demonstration farmers.
 New associated technologies and methods: the
  farmers learned about transplanting and dry
  season irrigation, and also appeared to be very
  excited about this information.
Lessons learned

 Information: Some village promoters are more
  effective and credible than others
 Financing: Village promoter has reported low
  adoption rates despite farmer enthusiasm
   • probably 10-15 percent of rice farmers in the
     village purchased the UDP in any appreciable
     quantities
   • Finances often mentioned as reasons for not
     adopting.
   • On return trip, these group of farmers would be
     interviewed to find out:
       If these farmers bought any fertilizer at all, and just
        decided not to buy USG in addition (taking a risk
        averse OR
       If they truly lacked the finances to buy any fertilizer at
        all.
Future Steps
 Exploratory visit to back to Niger state in
  December. Interest in:
   • Rate of adoption
   • Yields
   • Sources of and flow of UDP related
     information
        Identifying if the flow of information and
         recognition of expertise has transcended
         the village promoter
 Larger evaluation of the technology in 2013
  in collaboration with MSU and IFDC
Thank you
Policy Options for Promoting Agricultural Credit in
  Nigeria: Insights from Recent Innovations in
              Developing Countries
                          Kamiljon T. Akramov
              International Food Policy Research Institute
                         Washington, D.C., USA




               IFPRI-NSSP 2012 Research Conference
                          Abuja, Nigeria
                      November 13-14, 2012
Outline

• Background

• The financing gap in agricultural sector in Nigeria

• Recent advances in agricultural finance
      • Credit delivery structures
      • Risk mitigating instruments
      • Value chain financing

• Summary and conclusions




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE             Page 63
Background
• Agriculture plays a pivotal role in developing economies, driving
  equitable development and poverty reduction
• Access to credit is one of the important challenges in agricultural
  sector
   • High real and perceived risk
   • High transaction and loan supervision costs
• Governments and development partners have tried various approaches
  to improve farmers’ access to credit
    •   Access to agricultural credit remains as a major problem in developing world
• This presentation draws insights from recent advances in
  agricultural credit in developing countries to inform policy options
  in Nigeria


  INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE                                         Page 64
Financial intermediation in Nigeria improved in recent years

 40.0


 35.0


 30.0


 25.0


 20.0


 15.0


 10.0


  5.0


  0.0
        1981   1984      1987      1990      1993       1996      1999     2002   2005   2008         2011

                                           M2/GDP (%)      (CPS/GDP) (%)


                                Source: Central Bank of Nigeria (2012)

  INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE                                                  Page 65
But only small share of loans reaches agriculture
          despite its substantial share in overall economy
60.0



50.0



40.0



30.0



20.0



10.0



 0.0
       1981   1984      1987      1990      1993        1996       1999   2002   2005   2008         2011

                                            AGGDP/GDP          AGC/CPS


                               Source: Central Bank of Nigeria (2012)

 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE                                                  Page 66
How to improve farmers’ access to credit?

• In the past, governments heavily invested but often
  unsuccessfully in agricultural development banks and
  various subsidy schemes
• The Nigerian government has also launched a number of
  interventions to promote agricultural producers’ access to credit
     • ACGSF, ACSS, CACS, BOA
     • NIRSAL
• In recent years a number of innovative approaches are being
  practiced to address constraints in agricultural credit
   • Advances in credit delivery structures (CDS)
   • Novel risk mitigating instruments (RMI)
   • Inventions in value chain financing (VCF)


 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE                 Page 67
CDS: Foreign investment and institutional strengthening of
                      rural banks
• Rabobank created two institutions to advance rural banking and access to
  credit in rural areas of developing countries (van Empel 2010)
   • Rabo Development (RD) invests in financial institutions and provides
     management services
   • Rabo International Advisory Services (RIAS) provides technical assistance to
     banks and financial cooperatives
   • Provision of credit to farmers is focused on the value chains
   • Investments in Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia, Rwanda, Paraguay, Brazil
• Institutional strengthening of rural and community banks (RCB) in Ghana
   • Establishment of Apex Bank to provide payment clearing and liquidity
     management services to RCBs
   • Strengthening institutional capacity and policy framework to effectively oversight
     of rural financial services
   • Building ICT infrastructure including local area networks and satellite-based wide
     area networks
   • Mixed financial performance but credit to agriculture yet to increase

   INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE                              Page 68
CDS: Linkage banking

• Agricultural development bank or commercial bank – MFI
  partnership arrangements (Harper et al. 2008; Hannover
  2005)
      • Banks do on-lending to MFIs or pay service fee or share part of
        interest earning
      • Allows to reduce transaction costs for banks and provides access
        to wholesale funds for MFI
      • Increases access to credit by poor smallholders
      • Improves repayment of credit because MFIs know how to provide
        and monitor financial services for poor rural households
      • Examples: NABARD (India), AFC (Kenya), BOA (Nigeria)




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE                       Page 69
Extending agricultural credit in combination with RMI

• Market-based arrangements can help to mitigate both price and
  weather related risk and improve access to credit by poor farmers
    • Futures and forward contracts
    • Risk pooling and index-based weather insurance
• Extending agric. lending through insurance – BASIX in India (WB
  2005, BASIX 2012)
    • BASIX is a group of companies that aims to expand agricultural credit by
      attracting funds from mainstream capital markets
    • BASIX reduces its institutional-level risk through appropriate mix of three risk
      mitigation techniques
        • Group-specific lending to increase repayment
        • Portfolio limits: 45% agricultural lending, 45% non-farm loans, 10% other
        • Loans offered in conjunction with insurance products: group term life
           insurance, cattle insurance, weather index insurance
    • Performance in 2010: about 1 million loans for total amount of over 14bln Rs;
      performing assets-99.2%, on-time repayment – 98% (BASIX 2012)


   INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE                                Page 70
Partial credit guarantee schemes in agriculture

• Renewed interest in PCG schemes to increase investment
  into agriculture (Meyer 2011)
      • PCG schemes are also used in Nigeria
• PCGs can (FAO 2011)
      • Provide additional collateral to farmers but cannot improve their capacity
        to repay loans
      • Leverage scarce public resources by ―unlocking‖ private capital but
        cannot make up for lack of liquidity
• Recent WB study shows that (Beck et al. 2008):
      • When governments are involved in credit risk assessment, default rates
        are higher
      • Role of governments in PCG schemes should be limited to funding and
        management, and banks should be responsible for credit risk
        assessment and recovery
      • Limited use of risk management mechanisms by banks

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE                                Page 71
VCF instruments: Warehouse receipts

• Warehouse receipts system (WRS) is an old form of collateralized
  agricultural lending instrument
• But limited scale economies and lack of appropriate institutional
  arrangements limit its use, especially for smallholders (Meyer 2011)
    •   WRS are more prevalent in east and southern Africa than in west or central
• Recently MFIs start to develop so-called micro-warrant financing systems
    • FONDECO (Bolivia) uses micro-warrant financing for rice and corn small
      producers
    • Smallholders have access to lower-cost seasonal loans, backed by stored
      grain while FONDECO benefits from less risk and reduced loan management
      costs
    • Grain mills benefits from higher demand for their facilities (Miller 2011)
• Similar efforts are under way in Uganda and other countries (Meyer 2011)
• But these schemes seem costly for smallholders without external financial
  and managerial support (Besigye 2009)

  INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE                                       Page 72
VCF Instruments: Providing market linkages
• Provision of credit to smallholder farmers becomes increasingly
  feasible when they are connected to a formal network of supply chain
  participants (Campaigne and Rausch 2010)
• DrumNet project in Kenya is operating since 2005 by combing supply-
  chain approach with microfinance principals
• It establishes relationships with key actors along a supply chain- a
  buyer, farm input dealers, a financier and links them to smallholders
  through a dedicated transaction platform
• DrumNet serves as the intermediary in the flow of payments to ensure
  credit is repaid before earnings reach farmers’ accounts
• This infrastructure enables access to credit for smallholders by
    • Assuring banks that farmers have a market for their produce and the
      means to adequately serve that market
    • Minimizing loan diversion by directly paying certified input retailers after
      distribution of inputs

 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE                                  Page 73
VCF: Providing market linkages (cont.)
• DrumNet encountered two major challenges
      • Partner noncompliance
      • Low agricultural yields
• To address these challenges, DrumNet identified new
  products that can be bundled with supply chain
      •   Performance rating
      •   Crop insurance
      •   Soil analysis
      •   Payment systems similar to M-Pesa




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE            Page 74
Agricultural credit constraints addressed by innovative
                   approaches: Summary
                                             Mitigating risks   Reduction of transaction
                                                                & loan supervision costs
Credit delivery structures
• Attracting foreign investment                     +                      +
• Strengthening rural banks                                                +
• Linkage banking                                                          +
Risk reducing instruments
• Combining credit with                             +
  insurance
• PCG                                               +
Value chain financing
• WRS                                               +                      +
• Providing market linkages                         +                      +


  INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE                                      Page 75
Overall policy lessons
• Review of recent advances in agricultural credit suggests that
  promoting innovations in agricultural credit rests on
      • Creating supportive legal and institutional framework for provision of a
        variety of financial services to low-income rural households
      • Strengthening institutional capacity and ICT infrastructure of rural
        financial institutions
      • Providing appropriate training in both technical and management skills
      • Investing in economic and technological infrastructure in rural areas
        necessary
• Interventions are more successful when they are implemented as a
  package
• Government can play an important role in providing wholesale
  funding to credit constrained microfinance and rural banks
• Monitoring and evaluation of new interventions in agricultural finance
  is very important

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE                                Page 76
Thank you




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE        Page 77

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Day 2, Session 1, Part 1: Unlocking Agricultural Growth through Technology and Financial Security

  • 1. Understanding diversity in irrigation potential within Nigeria Hiroyuki Takeshima, Hua Xia, Liang You, Hyacinth Edeh (IFPRI) NSSP National Conference 2012: ―Informing Nigeria’s Agricultural Transformation Agenda with Policy Analysis and Research Evidence‖ Abuja, Nigeria – November 13-14, 2012
  • 2. Research questions and methodologies Research questions • How much irrigation potentials are there in Nigeria? • How does such potential vary across regions? • Which type of irrigation system is transforming farm households in Nigeria? Methodologies • Irrigation potential – spatial diversity • Farm household and irrigator typologies INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 3. Irrigation in Nigeria – current picture Total cultivated area Irrigated million 32.1 ha Not irrigated 0.9 Public (equipped) 0.2 0.67 Private (equipped) million ha 0.03 Unequipped Fadama Source: FAO (2012) 0.9 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 4. IRRIGATION POTENTIALS INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 5. Irrigation potentials • How accurate can they be? – What might affect the exact potentials in different locations? • Location • Common resources / externality – water use within each basin • Imperfect market integration • Maximum potential from 4 types of technologies • diesel pumps • treadle pumps • communal river diversion • small reservoirs INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 6. Analytical framework A: Ex-ante Spatial Analysis Spatial disaggregation of agricultural development domains and spillover potential B: Biophysical Modeling (SWAT) C: Economic Modeling (DREAM) Hydrology Plant growth Predict the crop price effect from smallholder irrigations D: Benefit-cost Analysis Crop mix optimization, return to irrigation investment, and environmental impacts (e.g. water use increase). Source: Xie et al. (2012) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 7. Key spatial unit of analyses: Market shed and Hydrological Basin Market shed River Basin Source: Authors (Hua Xie & Liang You) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 8. Dry season irrigation potential Total irrigation potential area = 3.165 million ha Average potential = 1,000 USD / ha Net revenue Area (1000 Cumulative (USD/ha, year) ha) share (%) <500 57 2 500-1000 2,081 68 1000-2000 793 93 USD / ha 2000-3000 99 96 High : 8800 3000-4000 76 98 Low : 0 4000-5000 34 99 >5000 25 100 Source: Simulation by Hua & Liang Total 3,165 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 9. FARM LEVEL TYPOLOGY ANALYSIS INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 10. Research question Research question • Does irrigation transform farm households? • Which irrigation types are more likely to have transformed farm households? Objective • Construct key hypotheses Farm level analyses – typology • Farm household level diversity • Key farm household characteristics needed for using irrigation – despite some potential, why only certain types of farm households use irrigation? • Key farm behavioral characteristics INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 11. Methodology - • Cluster analysis • Living Standard Measurement Survey – Integrated Survey on Agriculture, 2010 (World Bank, National Bureau of Statistics in Nigeria) • Approximately 2000 farm households after dropping outliers (1100 for the North, 900 for the South) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 12. Producer typology Types of variables used Behaviors Resources -Crop patterns -- Rainfall variation -Input use intensity (fertilizer, agro- -- Soil types chemicals, seed purchase) -- Farming systems (North / South) -Production scale (farm size, sales) -- Proximity to rivers / dams -Irrigation -- Population density / access to town -Mechanization (tractor / animal -- Household characteristics traction) -- Assets - Market orientation -- Non-farm income earning activities -- Labor cost (real wage) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 12
  • 13. Variables used for cluster analysis Categories Variables Agro-ecological Agroecological zones – FAO farming system (LGA average) (Natural resources) Soil type (LGA average) Historical rainfall variation (LGA average) Distance to major rivers (LGA average) Market access Total population density in the region where the household is located Distance to towns of 20 thousand inhabitants Resources (Human Household size resources) Level of education and literacy of household head Gender of household head Resources (Assets) Total value of assets not including land Size of livestock equivalent stock or value of animal stock owned Labor resource Real LGA median wage of land clearing / preparation (– ratio to LGA maize price) Land tenure Whether own any of the farm plots Production scale Total rainfed area Production scale Whether using irrigation or not under irrigation Total irrigated area (continue to next slides) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 14. Variables used for cluster analysis Categories Variables Production intensity Overall input intensity measured as the total value of inputs per hectare of farm area or cultivated area Fertilizer - Seed (value of purchased seed only), pesticide, herbicide Animal traction (Number of days per ha) Whether using tractor or not Tractor (Number of tractors used per ha) Whether hired labor for harvesting Whether the household took out any loan / credit (including non- agricultural credit) from either formal or informal sources Income, non-farm Total expenditure per person activities Whether having non-farm income Remittance income last month – other types of income (savings interest, rental of property etc) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 15. Separate by North and South Pastoral Agro-pastoral – millet / sorghum Cereal – root crop mixed North Root crop system Tree crop South system Coastal artisanal Figure 1. Farming systems in Nigeria Source: Dixon et al. (2001) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 16. Agro-ecological / Socio-economic factors ! ! ! ! !! ! ! !! !! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! !! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Major waterways / dams in Time of travel to nearest Nigeria town with population of 20k INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 17. Types of farm households using irrigation in Nigeria - North Category Maize based system with Coarse grains / Rice / sorghum, legumes legume vegetable % share among northern farmers 15 4 14 35 30 3 Real wage (daily wage/maize 11 24 11 8 10 8 price) Fertilizer (Naira/ha) 4500 0 8400 4000 0 8200 Chemicals (USD/ha) 2200 3350 3900 1800 430 8600 Farm size 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.4 % using tractor 5 10 15 4 3 20 % using irrigation 10 0 1 4 4 63 % with non-farm income source 51 26 67 69 47 73 Household nonfood expenditure 36 34 57 38 30 43 (annual/pc) Household assets (USD) 198 204 510 295 149 271 Distance to the nearest river .017 .017 .017 .017 .017 .017 Distance to the nearest dam (km) 58 48 40 43 82 80 % selling their harvest 62 76 65 60 57 73 % selling or giving as gift 89 88 84 85 80 93 Source: Author’s calculations based on LSMS-ISA. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 18. Types of farm households using irrigation in Nigeria - South Category Cassava Cassava, yam, grains Cocoa Rice system % share among northern farmers 30 41 9 9 8 4 Real wage (daily wage/maize 10 10 10 11 11 17 price) Fertilizer (Naira/ha) 0 0 0 0 0 9000 Chemicals (USD/ha) 0 300 1420 2800 5000 15000 Farm size 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.3 1.3 2.6 % using tractor 0 0 0 0 1 100 % using irrigation 0 1 0 3 9 29 % with non-farm income source 32 54 65 29 82 80 Household nonfood expenditure 49 78 109 41 108 111 (annual/pc) Household assets (USD) 88 308 310 249 253 671 Distance to the nearest river .017 .016 .017 .016 .017 .017 Distance to the nearest dam (km) 140 130 180 64 38 43 % selling their harvest 70 68 72 87 97 90 % selling or giving as gift 74 74 81 91 97 93 Source: Author’s calculations based on LSMS-ISA. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 19. Major types of irrigators in Nigeria Rice irrigators Vegetable Coarse grains / irrigators legumes irrigators Small-scale Tractorized larger Dry season Rainy season scale Supplementary • Coarse grains / legumes irrigation – mostly supplementary, little change in inputs intensity INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 20. Types of farm households using irrigation in Nigeria • Descriptions of key farm households using irrigation • North • Small-scale rice / vegetable growers • Rainy season supplementary irrigation of coarse grains / legumes • Some substitutions of tractors vs (irrigation + animal traction) • South • Larger scale rice irrigators producing rainfed maize and cassava • Their production behaviors are distinctive, but unclear whether it is because of irrigation. More likely due to mechanization • Effects of irrigation – some but may not be substantial INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 21. Concluding hypotheses • Irrigation potentials vary across locations. Support for irrigation needs to focus on areas with high potentials, instead of medium to low potentials. • Irrigation for rice / vegetables can be one of the options to transform farm households in Nigeria • Irrigation of coarse grains / legumes • mostly supplementary • Limited effect in changing inputs intensity, transforming farm households • Does irrigation really transform agriculture ? How ? INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 22. UDP Technology in Nigeria Prof. B. Tarfa & Brian Kiger NSSP National Conference 2012: “Informing Nigeria’s Agricultural Transformation Agenda with policy analysis and research evidence” Abuja, Nigeria – November 13-14, 2012 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 23. UDP Technology… Agenda  What is UDP technology?  What are USG?  Benefits  Challenges  Building Demand  Enabling Supply  Moving Forward
  • 24. What is UDP technology? Urea Deep Placement (UDP) is the practice of placing briquetted urea 5-7cm deep in puddled transplanted rice fields, at spacing of 40 cms. 40 cm
  • 25. What are USGs?  Urea Super Granules (USGs) are applied once a growing season— a week after transplanting rice seedlings.  One USG is applied geometrically between 4 rice stands.  They are oval compacted pellets produced by briquetting granular urea using briquetting machines to 1.8 gram or 2.7 grams.  Notore Chemical industries is currently producing and marketing 2.7g in 10 kg bags.  USG releases N slowly and is placed out of the reach of weeds’ roots.
  • 26. The briquette product Urea Briquettes NPK Briquettes Urea + Diammonium phosphate + Muriate of Potash
  • 27. How do farmers apply UDP technology?
  • 28. Comparison of N Balance in Rice Fields Urea Split Application Urea Deep Placement Unaccounted 4% In Grain In Soil 23% 31% In Grain 42% Unaccounted 35% In Straw 9% In Soil 33% In Straw 23%
  • 29. Comparison of Urea Applications 2 Out of 3 Bags of Urea Lost using Split Application 1 Out of 3 Bags of Urea Lost using USG
  • 30. What are the benefits of UDP technology?  Increases efficiency of N use in rice by placing it in the soil—reducing N loss through gaseous emissions and/or floodwater run-off. In broadcast application of urea, 40% of N fertilizers volatizes into the atmosphere.  Reduces weed competition as fertilizer is placed near rice plants’ roots.  Nitrogen use efficiency under irrigated rice increases by 40%.  Irrigated rice crop yields increase up to 50% (Niger State 2012).
  • 31. UDP Benefits Rice Sector Stakeholders For farmers: For the environment: • Decrease in production cost • Reduces Nitrogen • Increase in yield runoff and volatization • Increase in profit For entrepreneurs: • New area of business & profit • Opportunity to contribute to national development For the national economy: • Increase in rural employment opportunities • Increase in rice production
  • 32. What are the challenges of UDP technology adoption in Nigeria?  Limited Supply and Demand of USG  UDP Best Practices are not well-known to rice farmers  Many farmers complain that USG application is labor-intensive  Farmers incorrectly apply USGs to other crops and/or do not practice rice cultivation and field management best practices, limiting USG’s yield effect.
  • 33. In 2012… The FMARD (via NPFS), Notore and MARKETS II began collaborating on expanding the Supply and Demand of Urea Super Granules in targeted Nigerian rice producing regions.
  • 34. Building Demand: 2012 UDP Technology Transfer Centers (TTCs) Kebbi 2012 Kebbi 2012
  • 35. 2012 Dry Season Yields with Transplanted Rice UDP (Mt/Ha)* Farmers' Practice (Mt/Ha)* Difference (Mt/Ha) 7.74 8.00 7.07 6.79 6.68 7.00 5.71 6.00 Yields (Mt/Ha) 5.00 4.18 4.38 4.00 3.263.42 2.61 2.69 3.00 2.03 2.00 1.00 - Gombe Kebbi Niger Average
  • 36. Cost-Benefit Analysis from 2012 UDP Demonstrations Farmer's Practice UDP 447,051 450,000 400,000 350,000 311,813 299,150 300,000 267,847 250,000 Naira 200,000 147,900 150,000 100,000 50,000 - (50,000) Production Costs Harvest Revenue Overall Profit (43,966)
  • 37. In 2012, MARKETS II facilitated… • 3 Technology Transfer Centers (TTCs) managed by rice farmers and state ADP officers; • Trained more than 2,000 farmers (including Notore staff) on UDP technology best practices in 2012; • Developed training curriculums to improve dissemination of USG benefits to farmers for coming seasons; • Partnered with Notore and the FMARD (via NPFS) on supplying USG to pilot rice growing markets.
  • 38.
  • 39. Building Supply: Notore’s Commercial Production of USG in 2012
  • 40. Distribution (by state) of USG Sold in 2012 30 25 USG Sold (MT) 20 15 10 5 0 2012 Pilot States
  • 41. In 2012, Notore…  Developed a production line for briquetting urea, packaging and shipping it to select retailers;  Developed supply channels of USG to targeted rice grower regions in Nigeria;  Sold 75 Mt of USG in 10kg bags (7,500 unit sales);  Developed agro dealer demonstration plots after attending the MARKETS II trainings at TTCs.
  • 42. Moving Forward  Work with old and new partners to expand USG supply while continuing to develop and expand market demand  Explore USG application rates on other crops (soya, maize, tomatoes, sorghum)  Explore briquetting NPK options  Develop a mechanized applicator to facilitate labor of USG application
  • 44. The role of information and social networks in technology adoption: A case study of Urea Deep Placement technology Oluyemisi Kuku (IFPRI), Saweda Liverpool-Tasie (MSU), Akeem Ajibola (IFPRI) NSSP National Conference 2012: “Informing Nigeria’s Agricultural Transformation Agenda with policy analysis and research evidence” Abuja, Nigeria – November 13-14, 2012 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 45. Presentation Outline  Introduction  Factors that affect technology adoption  Social Networks and social learning  UDP  Farmer field day visits • Farmer’s perceptions • Village promoters  Lessons learned  Future steps
  • 46. Introduction  The agricultural sector is crucial to the Nigerian economy • Largest employer • Food self sufficiency  Agricultural productivity is low – working in agricultural sector is hard and unrewarding • Agronomic factors (e.g seed quality) • Farm management  poor production technologies  outdated farming methods  Many technological innovations that can dramatically increase productivity • How to encourage adoption?
  • 47. Adoption Decisions  Most adoption studies in Nigeria use characteristics of the farm as well as demographic characteristics of farm households to predict adoption.  Information as a factor growing in importance • often proxied by some measure of farmer contact with extension agents, or membership of farmer’s organization of some sort • farmers characterized as passive recipients of information from change agents e.g extension officers or sales agents representing producers  These measures not robust enough to capture important information about adoption decisions
  • 48. Social Networks and social Learning  Social networks: systemic setups characterized by agents that develop, diffuse and use innovations, their interactions, and structures and rules  Farmers can learn by doing or learn from others (Bandiera and Rasul, 2006).  In the “learning from others” model: • learn through collective experimentation, discussion and persuasion • direct observation of neighbors’ experiments
  • 49. Social Networks and social Learning  While farmers learn from others, they do not learn from all farmers.  Networks which involve more purposeful interactions (like friends) are more likely than mere spatial links (like neighbors who may or may not be friends) to appropriately disseminate information  Not much information on the process of social learning in Nigeria : • Relevant studies treat farmers as passive recipients of information
  • 50. Urea Deep Placement technology  placement of 1-3 grams of urea supergranules or briquettes at a 7-10 centimeters (cm) soil depth shortly after the paddy is transplanted.  Importance of irrigation
  • 51. Urea Deep Placement technology  Benefits • Lower costs:  Reduction in fertilizer costs per hectare due to only one application of urea  Reduction in weeding costs (weed only once) • Decrease in Nitrogen losses (40%) • Increase in yield (25-30 %)
  • 52. Exploratory field work  Farmer field days in Gombe and Niger  Notore, USAID markets, IFDC  Qualitative interviews with • About 10 farmers in Niger and Gombe • The main agrodealer in Niger • Several Notore officials • Relevant ADP extension agents
  • 53. Exploratory field work Farmer’s practice UDP technology
  • 54. Benefits identified by farmers  Better yield  Faster growth  Less fertilizer use – for one farmer it was 6kg of USG as opposed to 20kg of normal fertilizer that he used previously.  Lower overall labor costs – apply fertilizer only once.
  • 55. Benefits identified by farmers  Hands on learning: Many of the farmers were also able to tell us clearly the steps required to utilize UDP, even those who were not demonstration farmers.  New associated technologies and methods: the farmers learned about transplanting and dry season irrigation, and also appeared to be very excited about this information
  • 56. Social networks and social learning: The Village promoter  A unique blend of social networks and commercial motivation to propagate a new technology.  In Niger: • a model farmer, open to innovative practices, very popular, very well respected and well liked. • Called a village meeting to propagate the technology. Everybody we interviewed pointed to him as the source of their knowledge. • He has credibility because he also uses the technology on his crops in addition to selling • We are liaising with him as we plan a return trip  In Gombe – perhaps not as effective. Farmers did not know that USG was available locally even though they expressed a wish to purchase.
  • 57. The village promoter (Niger State) Fari Muhammed Shesi
  • 58. Lessons learned  Demonstration plots: An excellent tool being used by IFDC, and USAID markets. The farmers were very excited by the results of the use of UDP even on the look of the plants. They were very excited and enthused about what they saw and vowed to adopt for the rainy season.  Hands on learning: Many of the farmers were also able to tell us clearly the steps required to utilize UDP, even those who were not demonstration farmers.  New associated technologies and methods: the farmers learned about transplanting and dry season irrigation, and also appeared to be very excited about this information.
  • 59. Lessons learned  Information: Some village promoters are more effective and credible than others  Financing: Village promoter has reported low adoption rates despite farmer enthusiasm • probably 10-15 percent of rice farmers in the village purchased the UDP in any appreciable quantities • Finances often mentioned as reasons for not adopting. • On return trip, these group of farmers would be interviewed to find out:  If these farmers bought any fertilizer at all, and just decided not to buy USG in addition (taking a risk averse OR  If they truly lacked the finances to buy any fertilizer at all.
  • 60. Future Steps  Exploratory visit to back to Niger state in December. Interest in: • Rate of adoption • Yields • Sources of and flow of UDP related information  Identifying if the flow of information and recognition of expertise has transcended the village promoter  Larger evaluation of the technology in 2013 in collaboration with MSU and IFDC
  • 62. Policy Options for Promoting Agricultural Credit in Nigeria: Insights from Recent Innovations in Developing Countries Kamiljon T. Akramov International Food Policy Research Institute Washington, D.C., USA IFPRI-NSSP 2012 Research Conference Abuja, Nigeria November 13-14, 2012
  • 63. Outline • Background • The financing gap in agricultural sector in Nigeria • Recent advances in agricultural finance • Credit delivery structures • Risk mitigating instruments • Value chain financing • Summary and conclusions INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 63
  • 64. Background • Agriculture plays a pivotal role in developing economies, driving equitable development and poverty reduction • Access to credit is one of the important challenges in agricultural sector • High real and perceived risk • High transaction and loan supervision costs • Governments and development partners have tried various approaches to improve farmers’ access to credit • Access to agricultural credit remains as a major problem in developing world • This presentation draws insights from recent advances in agricultural credit in developing countries to inform policy options in Nigeria INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 64
  • 65. Financial intermediation in Nigeria improved in recent years 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 M2/GDP (%) (CPS/GDP) (%) Source: Central Bank of Nigeria (2012) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 65
  • 66. But only small share of loans reaches agriculture despite its substantial share in overall economy 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 AGGDP/GDP AGC/CPS Source: Central Bank of Nigeria (2012) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 66
  • 67. How to improve farmers’ access to credit? • In the past, governments heavily invested but often unsuccessfully in agricultural development banks and various subsidy schemes • The Nigerian government has also launched a number of interventions to promote agricultural producers’ access to credit • ACGSF, ACSS, CACS, BOA • NIRSAL • In recent years a number of innovative approaches are being practiced to address constraints in agricultural credit • Advances in credit delivery structures (CDS) • Novel risk mitigating instruments (RMI) • Inventions in value chain financing (VCF) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 67
  • 68. CDS: Foreign investment and institutional strengthening of rural banks • Rabobank created two institutions to advance rural banking and access to credit in rural areas of developing countries (van Empel 2010) • Rabo Development (RD) invests in financial institutions and provides management services • Rabo International Advisory Services (RIAS) provides technical assistance to banks and financial cooperatives • Provision of credit to farmers is focused on the value chains • Investments in Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia, Rwanda, Paraguay, Brazil • Institutional strengthening of rural and community banks (RCB) in Ghana • Establishment of Apex Bank to provide payment clearing and liquidity management services to RCBs • Strengthening institutional capacity and policy framework to effectively oversight of rural financial services • Building ICT infrastructure including local area networks and satellite-based wide area networks • Mixed financial performance but credit to agriculture yet to increase INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 68
  • 69. CDS: Linkage banking • Agricultural development bank or commercial bank – MFI partnership arrangements (Harper et al. 2008; Hannover 2005) • Banks do on-lending to MFIs or pay service fee or share part of interest earning • Allows to reduce transaction costs for banks and provides access to wholesale funds for MFI • Increases access to credit by poor smallholders • Improves repayment of credit because MFIs know how to provide and monitor financial services for poor rural households • Examples: NABARD (India), AFC (Kenya), BOA (Nigeria) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 69
  • 70. Extending agricultural credit in combination with RMI • Market-based arrangements can help to mitigate both price and weather related risk and improve access to credit by poor farmers • Futures and forward contracts • Risk pooling and index-based weather insurance • Extending agric. lending through insurance – BASIX in India (WB 2005, BASIX 2012) • BASIX is a group of companies that aims to expand agricultural credit by attracting funds from mainstream capital markets • BASIX reduces its institutional-level risk through appropriate mix of three risk mitigation techniques • Group-specific lending to increase repayment • Portfolio limits: 45% agricultural lending, 45% non-farm loans, 10% other • Loans offered in conjunction with insurance products: group term life insurance, cattle insurance, weather index insurance • Performance in 2010: about 1 million loans for total amount of over 14bln Rs; performing assets-99.2%, on-time repayment – 98% (BASIX 2012) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 70
  • 71. Partial credit guarantee schemes in agriculture • Renewed interest in PCG schemes to increase investment into agriculture (Meyer 2011) • PCG schemes are also used in Nigeria • PCGs can (FAO 2011) • Provide additional collateral to farmers but cannot improve their capacity to repay loans • Leverage scarce public resources by ―unlocking‖ private capital but cannot make up for lack of liquidity • Recent WB study shows that (Beck et al. 2008): • When governments are involved in credit risk assessment, default rates are higher • Role of governments in PCG schemes should be limited to funding and management, and banks should be responsible for credit risk assessment and recovery • Limited use of risk management mechanisms by banks INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 71
  • 72. VCF instruments: Warehouse receipts • Warehouse receipts system (WRS) is an old form of collateralized agricultural lending instrument • But limited scale economies and lack of appropriate institutional arrangements limit its use, especially for smallholders (Meyer 2011) • WRS are more prevalent in east and southern Africa than in west or central • Recently MFIs start to develop so-called micro-warrant financing systems • FONDECO (Bolivia) uses micro-warrant financing for rice and corn small producers • Smallholders have access to lower-cost seasonal loans, backed by stored grain while FONDECO benefits from less risk and reduced loan management costs • Grain mills benefits from higher demand for their facilities (Miller 2011) • Similar efforts are under way in Uganda and other countries (Meyer 2011) • But these schemes seem costly for smallholders without external financial and managerial support (Besigye 2009) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 72
  • 73. VCF Instruments: Providing market linkages • Provision of credit to smallholder farmers becomes increasingly feasible when they are connected to a formal network of supply chain participants (Campaigne and Rausch 2010) • DrumNet project in Kenya is operating since 2005 by combing supply- chain approach with microfinance principals • It establishes relationships with key actors along a supply chain- a buyer, farm input dealers, a financier and links them to smallholders through a dedicated transaction platform • DrumNet serves as the intermediary in the flow of payments to ensure credit is repaid before earnings reach farmers’ accounts • This infrastructure enables access to credit for smallholders by • Assuring banks that farmers have a market for their produce and the means to adequately serve that market • Minimizing loan diversion by directly paying certified input retailers after distribution of inputs INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 73
  • 74. VCF: Providing market linkages (cont.) • DrumNet encountered two major challenges • Partner noncompliance • Low agricultural yields • To address these challenges, DrumNet identified new products that can be bundled with supply chain • Performance rating • Crop insurance • Soil analysis • Payment systems similar to M-Pesa INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 74
  • 75. Agricultural credit constraints addressed by innovative approaches: Summary Mitigating risks Reduction of transaction & loan supervision costs Credit delivery structures • Attracting foreign investment + + • Strengthening rural banks + • Linkage banking + Risk reducing instruments • Combining credit with + insurance • PCG + Value chain financing • WRS + + • Providing market linkages + + INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 75
  • 76. Overall policy lessons • Review of recent advances in agricultural credit suggests that promoting innovations in agricultural credit rests on • Creating supportive legal and institutional framework for provision of a variety of financial services to low-income rural households • Strengthening institutional capacity and ICT infrastructure of rural financial institutions • Providing appropriate training in both technical and management skills • Investing in economic and technological infrastructure in rural areas necessary • Interventions are more successful when they are implemented as a package • Government can play an important role in providing wholesale funding to credit constrained microfinance and rural banks • Monitoring and evaluation of new interventions in agricultural finance is very important INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 76
  • 77. Thank you INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 77

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. The total irrigated area is still well below the potential. Private irrigation, including unequipped Fadama is the major driving force. It will also be the key for the remaining 1.2 million ha of irrigation potentialEquipped public: RBDA (Federal Government), state govEquipped private: Equipped Fadama – 55,000ha, Private equipped (farmer-owned small-scale schemes) – 128,000 ha
  2. Salient feature of the studyIntegrated use of state-of-the-art analysis/modeling tools (GIS+DREAM+SWAT)Capable of providing estimates of economic return, identifying high-potential investment area and assessingAMWS work by GATES FoundationetcOur work builds on these previous workExternalityIrrigation water use within each basinPartial equilibrium (?)Market-shed
  3. Characteristics of rice producers vary across Nigeria, because of diverse agro-ecological and socio-economic environment they reside. In order to grow rice production sector in competitive manner in the short term, it is important to identify the types of rice producers who are currently practicing intensive production as they are likely to respond more sharply to improved production environment (price, infrastructure, processing facilities etc).We conduct cluster analysis to classify rice producers into various groups based on their characteristics (production behaviors) and access to various resources as summarized in the table.
  4. Sorghum irrigation in the NorthRice / vegetable irrigation has some effect, but still limited – tractorization needed in the SouthAmong type 6, animal traction (+ tractor) seems to be substituting irrigation (?) in the North – in a sense that the characteristics of farm households are quite similar between them