Richard Quincey {IES} and Dr Tristan Kershaw {Exeter University} present the Prometheus Weather Files project at Ecobuild 2011.
The free weather files can be downloaded here: http://www2.iesve.com/support/FAQs/FAQ-answer/?qId=485
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Ecobuild 2011 - Prometheus Weather Files project
1. Prometheus
The Use of Probabilistic Climate Change Data to Future-proof
Design Decisions in the Building Sector
Dr Tristan Kershaw Richard Quincey
University of Exeter IES Ltd.
3. Context
UK Building Regulations
Energy Policy
Design Weather Data
Sustainable Compliance
Mitigation / Adaptation
Sustainable Design Life … 100+ years?
Risk Assessment / Investment
8. Prometheus
IPCC: there is a 50% chance that global
warming will not exceed 2ºC for stabilisation of
CO2-eq at 450ppm.
Currently we are at ~425ppm CO2-eq
CO2 emissions are currently
greater than the A1FI
emissions scenario
10. Prometheus
Perception of climate change within the building industry
• Surveys of several architectural and engineering firms.
• General concern about climate change and inadequacies of current practices.
Very few (~6%) actively denied climate change.
• Greater seniority greater satisfaction with current practices.
• Participants focused almost exclusively upon mitigation rather than adaptation
options when listing current practices.
• Most common reactions to climate change were to reduce CO2 emissions,
increase sustainability and longevity of building design.
• When asked about possible alternatives to current practices only 5% of
responses listed adaptation options, the rest were exclusively mitigation based.
• Main barrier to change was time / money.
Published in Building and Environment 46 1151-1158 (2011)
13. Prometheus
Possible impacts: Heatwaves
∆T warmest day ∆T warmest night
14. Prometheus
So we need weather files! CIBSE files:14 sites
Exeter files: 35 sites
•3 time periods
•5 probability levels
•Medium and high emission
scenarios
•Both TRY and DSY type files
Method peer reviewed and
published.
Building Serv. Eng. Res.
Technol. (online).
Files available for free download from:
http://www.exeter.ac.uk/cee/prometheus
15. Prometheus
Comparing files: CDFs
The UKCP09 weather
generator produces 3000
years of weather from
which we assemble our
probabilistic files.
The five probabilistic files
map well the distribution of
the whole set.
17. Prometheus
The range of possible climate change is large. So which files
should you be using?
Things to consider:
•Risk to
occupants, vulnerable
groups.
•Cost benefit analysis
•Dialogue with client
Exeter files versus CIBSE files
18. Adapting Buildings
Brief:
To create a timeline of
possible adaptation
•Increased occupancy
•Modern office environment
•Possible future changes in use
•Overheating, comfort and productivity
25. Conclusions
Prometheus data:
Uses the latest UKCIP data (2009)
Higher level of confidence than 2002 data
It is free … just download it
Protect investment – assess the risk
Built form – design for mitigation (CAF)
– design in adaptation strategy
HVAC – short lifecycle / long term strategy