The document summarizes a presentation given at the 70th ETSAP meeting about modeling energy demand in Spain using the MED-Pro energy demand model. Some key points: - IDAE has experience using various energy models like MEDEE-EUR and MED-Pro to study Spain's energy demand, forecast energy consumption by sector, and evaluate renewable energy and energy efficiency. - MED-Pro is an end-use energy demand model adapted from the MEDEE suite, with submodels for industry, transport, residential, services, and agriculture. It allows flexible disaggregation and considers factors like technology progress and socioeconomic changes. - The model is used to project Spain's energy demand over 30 years under different scenarios

1. 70th ETSAP meeting
Modelling the energy demand in Spain
with MED-Pro
CIEMAT (Madrid), 17 November 2016
Carlos Garcia Barquero
Head Department of Planning and Studies
IDAE
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2. IDAE´s experience on energy simulation and prospective studies
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• Methodology: EUROSTAT (ESR) and IEA Energy Statistics
• Prospects:
 End-use and RES: Monitoring and prospects of energy consumption by
sector (main end-use subsectors in industry, transport, services and
households) and fuel (coal, oil, gas, nuclear, electricity, biofuels, biomass,
solar, wind and H2);
 Energy demand forecasts: in the framework of medium and long-term
energy prospective national projects;
• Tools: country adaptation and application of energy models, i.e. MEDEE-EUR,
MURE, EFOM-ENV, POLES and MED-Pro for Spain; MEDEE-SUD for Algeria
and Morocco

3. • Carried out under the framework of the project “Sectoral studies on energy
monitoring (SES)”
• Recent studies:
o Industry: cement, glass, steel alloys
o Transport: urban buses, freight transport, private cars
o Services: shopping centers, hotels, hospitals, private offices, universities,
institutes and public schools; heat pumps
o Residential: electricity and heating & cooling EUROSTAT´s surveys, SPAHOUSEC
studies
o Renewable: biomass and solar thermal panels
End-use and RES studies
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4. •Final energy demand long-term simulation:
- End-use energy model developed from MEDEE suite, with focus on energy efficiency &
technological improvement
- Submodels: Industry, Transport, Residential, Services and Agriculture
- Disaggregation by sub-sectors, end-uses and intensive processes
- Wide level of insight: 450 equations and 900 variables
• Advantages:
- Flexibility at structure and disaggregation level
- Technological progress and socio-economic changes are main drivers
- Energy efficiency, saving potential and fuel substitution are also considered
- Long-term uncertainty is approached by means of alternative scenarios
• Limitations:
- Significant amount of data for the base year
- Coherent assumptions for the establishment of scenarios are required
• Simulation period:
- Base year, calibration year and up to 30 forecast years for simulation
MED-Pro: Energy Demand Model
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6. 6
Flexible disaggregation

7. 7
Structure of the model
INPUTS RESULTS
ANNUAL DATA OPTIONAL SUBMODELS SOCIOECONOMIC
l Socioeconomics Basic Disaggregation Desagregación sectorial F Industrial production
F GDP Macroeconomic consistence F Stock of vehicles
F Population Industry F Trade
F Households • Thermal uses • Industrial Subsectors • Energy Intensive Products F Stock of dwellings
F Equipment ownership • Electric uses • Construction • Steel F Equipment
F Employment • Non energy uses • Private vehicles by types
Transport
l Technicals • ŸPrivate vehicles • Motocycles
F Fuel efficiencies • Public passengers SPECIFIC CONSUMPTION
F Specific consumptions Road F Intensive Products
Rail F Vehicles
Air F End uses- Household sector
PARAMETERS • ŸGoods F Tertiary Dwellings
Road
F Elasticities Rail
F Logistic coeficients Sea
F Conversion coeficients • International sea DEMAND BY ENERGY SOURCE TYPE
Agriculture F by industrial branches
• Tractores • Energy Intensive Porducts F by transport mode and type of vehicle
SCENARIOS • Pumping F Electrical appliances
l Socioeconomics • ŸFishing boats F End uses- Tertiary sector
F Population • Thermal uses F by agriculture uses
F Economic growth • Electric uses
F Industrila growth Households
F Energy prices • Cooking and other thermal uses • Urban by zone • Heat Water
F Productivity • ŸLighting and other electrical consumptions • Rural by zone • ŸHeating
• ŸUrban by social class • ŸAir conditioning INDICATORS
l Technicals • ŸRural by social class • Electrical apllications F Energy Intensities
F Efficiency improvements Tertiary F Elasticities
F Technology penetration • Thermal uses • ŸSubsectors • ŸPublic lighting F Energy expenses
F Market trends • Electric uses F CO2 emissions
• Informal sector
• Public passengers
by bus size
• Freight by truck size
DEMAND PROJECTION MODULE
STRUCTURE

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14. Modelling with Med-Pro: main sources of information and tasks
Tasks
• In-depth analysis of energy consumption
for the base year
• Research and assessment of sectoral
energy perspectives
• Sectoral disaggregation and preparation
of sub-models within the tool
•Coherent assumptions for the
establishment of scenarios and assignment
of variables for each sector
•Econometric contrast of electricity for the
whole simulation period
Sources
• IDAE´s own sources (EE & RES
technologies)
• IDAE´s energy monitoring and technology
deployment studies
• Statistics and socio-economic forecasts
from public and private institutions
• Medium and long-term trends provided
Spanish Government, European Commission
and other international bodies (OCDE, UN,
etc.)
• Manufacturer associations and private
companies of the energy sector
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15. Example of global scenarios for MED-Pro
Reference
• Globalization, economic development and growth in world trade
• Similar present economic and energy trends
• XX% annual GDP growth for 2000-2030
• EU energy market progress
• Oil prices from YY $05/bbl in 2000 to ZZ $05/bbl in 2030. Gas prices …
• Light decrease of energy taxes
Lower growth
• Downturn, with lower economic
growth (GDP) and social integration
• High increase of oil prices and
subsequent oscillations
• Similar evolution of energy taxes
Hight reduction of ENV impacts
• Greater economic growth (GDP), lower
during first years
• Substantial progress in climate change
EU policy, limited emissions of GHG in
the energy sector
• Lower environmental impacts,
targeted fiscal policy and harmonization
at EU level
• Similar increase of oil prices, greater
for gas and lower for coal
• Significant increase of energy taxes for
end-users, internalization of external
costs and environmental benefits
Greater growth
• Greater economic growth (GDP),
in particular during first years
• Intensive market, wide economic
integration and lower public
participation in the economic
growth
• Similar evolution of energy prices
• Decrease of energy taxes
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16. Reference Scenario: main inputs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
$95/barril
Year
Oil international prices
30,0
32,0
34,0
36,0
38,0
40,0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Millones
Year
Evolution of Population
Source: INE
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Billonesptas.1986
Year
Evolution of GDP
Source: MEH
0
50
100
150
200
250
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Base1995=100
Evolution of GDP by sector
Agricultura Industria Servicios
Source: MEH
Source: EC
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17. Reference Scenario: main results
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Final consumption (ktoe) 64.961 72.026 79.916 87.726 92.413 98.063 103.715
Final Energy Intensity (tep/Mpta 86) 1,66 1,73 1,65 1,62 1,54 1,44 1,32
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2,0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
ktoe
(toe/Mpta)
Evolution of final energyconsumption and energyintensity in Spain
Energía (ktep) Intensidad total (tep/Mpta 86)
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18. Reference Scenario: results for household sector
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Intensidad energética en el sector residencial: consumo
de energía sobre PIB (tep/106pta)
Consumo energético de los hogares
Intensidad total
Gasóleo
11,1%
GLP
22,6%
Gas natural
10,1%
Electricidad
32,1%
Solar
0,2%
2000
Combustibles sólidos
24,0 %
Gasóleo
11,2%
GLP
17,0%
Gas natural
17,2%
Electricidad
36,0%
Solar
2,0%
2010
Combustibles sólidos
16,7 %
Gasóleo
10,9%
GLP
15,4%
Gas natural
20,9%
Electricidad
36,6%
Solar
2,2%
2020
Combustibles sólidos
13,9 %
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Intensidad energética en el sector residencial: consumo
por hogar (tep/hogar)
Consumo energético por hogar Consumo eléctrico por hogar
Consumo no eléctrico por hogar
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19. • MEDPro (EEf)
• REMap (RES)
• TIMES (EMod)
• ECf
• RESc-b
• ECp
• RESc-b
SINERGIA
MINETUR
IDAE SGPES/CIEMAT
Results Results
Base Input
Input
Contrast
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Models interaction under SINERGIA (so far)

20. MedPro–TIMES sectoral fitting
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