Energy systems & power systems modelling, Comparing Experiences in Ireland and Japan (Tentative)

1. Energy systems & power systems modelling
Comparing Experiences in Ireland and Japan
Brian Ó Gallachóir, Ryoichi Komiyama, Paul Deane, Alessandro Chiodi, Maurizio Gargiulo, Tatsuhiko
Sugiyama, Takashi Otsuki, Yasumasa Fujii
IEA ETSAP Workshop Copenhagen Nov 17 – 18 2014

2. Overview
1. Context
2. Energy systems - power systems modelling Japan
3. Energy systems - power systems modelling Ireland
4. Results – Japan
5. Results – Ireland
6. Next Steps

3. Context - current
Japan
Population 127m
GDP PPP
€3993bn
€31k
Electricity
Consumption
988 TWh
7.8 MWh
Peak
Demand (GW)
200 GW
CO2
Emissions
1223 Mt
9.6t
Installed
Capacity*
288 GW
Total Fossil
Fuels
185 GW
Hydro 22 GW
Wind
2.5 GW
14 GW
Ireland
Population 4.5m
GDP PPP
€165bn
€36k
Electricity
Consumption
26 TWh
5.6 MWh
Peak
Demand
5.1 GW
CO2
Emissions
35 Mt
7.6t
Installed
Capacity*
9 GW
Total Fossil
Fuels
7 GW
Hydro 0.2 GW
Wind 2 GW
Value in italics are per person

4. Context - Future
Ireland
• 40% RES-E by 2020!
• 10% EVs by 2020
 Electrification of transport
• -20% non-ETS GHG by 2020
 Electrification of heat
• Low Carbon Energy by 2050
 Decarbonise electricity
Japan
• >20% RES-E by 2030 !
(Before Fukushima)
• -30% CO2 by 2030
• Low Carbon Energy by 2030
 Decarbonise electricity
(Before Fukushima)
20% RE-E + 50% Nuclear

5. Energy & Renewable Policy in Japan
CO2 reduction target (before Fukushima): mitigate by 30% by 2030 from the 1990 level.
Nuclear policy: uncertain after Fukushima due to public acceptance, though its fraction in
power mix was discussed from 0% to 35% at 2030 in Atomic Energy Commission, Japan.
Renewable policy:
• Renewable is regarded as one of important alternative sources after Fukushima.
• The government raised up the ratio of renewable to more than 20% by 2030 in the
latest energy policy. (PV: 53 GW～, wind: 10 GW～)
(Source) Compiled from Ministry of Economy,
Trade and Industry (METI)
• Japanese government begin with implementing FIT in July 2012, and PV, in
particular, has shown a rapid growth.
• As of July 2014, renewable capacities certified by FIT surpassed 70 GW
(almost PV), more than 30% of Japanese total capacity.
• Particularly in Kyushu (southern part of Japan), the certified PV and wind
capacities reach more than its peak demand (112%). The company currently
suspends the integration of PV and wind.
Agenda: How much of variable renewable could be
integrated into the Japanese power system ?
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
PV
Wind
[GW]
PV and Wind Capacities in Japan
FIT started
in July 2012
Current Status of Renewable in Japan

6. Renewable Electricity in Ireland
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
RES-E%-Renewablesshareofgrosselectricity
Hydro (normalised) Wind (normalised) Landfill Gas Biogas Biomass
Wind grew from 2% to 16% in 8 years!
How? Strategy in 2000 and follow through
RES-E now ~ 21% of Gross Electricity Consumption

7. Modelling Tools Japan
Optimal Power Generation Mix (OPGM) Model
considering High Voltage Line Network in Japan
Geographical Resolution: whole region of Japan, 135 nodes, 166 transmission lines
Time Resolution: 10-min interval for 1 year (= 6 intervals/hour×24 hours/day×365 days = 52,560 time steps / year)
Power Flow Modelling: direct current method
Methodology: Linear programming (100 million constraints), single-period optimization
Power Line Network of OPGM model in Japan
Eastern Japan (50Hz)Western Japan (60Hz)

8. -30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
PowerSystemOperation[GW]
Loss
Inter Change
Suppressed PV
Suppressed Wind
Battery2(out)
Battery1(out)
Pumped(ont)
Battery2(in)
Battery1(in)
Pumped(in)
PV
Wind
Oil
LNG GCC
LNG ST
Coal
Nuclear
Marine
Biomass
Geothermal
Hydro
Load
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
PowerSystemOperation[GW]
Loss
Inter Change
Suppressed PV
Suppressed Wind
Battery2(out)
Battery1(out)
Pumped(ont)
Battery2(in)
Battery1(in)
Pumped(in)
PV
Wind
Oil
LNG GCC
LNG ST
Coal
Nuclear
Marine
Biomass
Geothermal
Hydro
Load
Optimal Dispatch in May
(Renewable Fraction: 30%)
Western Japan
Eastern Japan
(PV: 63 GW, Wind: 35 GW, Hydro: 24 GW, Geothermal: 3 GW, Biomass: 5 GW, Marine: 1 GW)
Modelling Tools Japan

9. Modelling Tools Japan: Global Energy Model (DNE21)
Global Energy Model (DNE21)
• Cost minimization model (minimization of discounted total cost from 2000 to 2100)
• Geographical Resolution: 54 regions (82 nodes)
• Scale of Model: 24 million constraints, 16 million endogenous variables
• Detailed consideration for Energy Transport:
- Pipeline Transport, Tanker Transport, Power Transmission
- Oil, Gas, Coal, Hydrogen, CO2, Methanol, Electricity
Energy System Modelling Regional Resolution & Energy Transportation Routes

10. Modelling Tools Ireland
Irish TIMES
• Energy systems model to 2060
• 12 timeslices in 5 – 10 year intervals
• Scenario analysis 2020, 2030 and 2050
PLEXOS_Ireland Power Systems Model
• Use TIMES results to build single year power systems model
• 15 minute, power plant detail, ramp rates, min load, cold start,
reserve modelling, market modelling
• Impacts of TIMES results on power system operation
• Use results to inform constraints in Irish TIMES

11. Soft-Linking Methodology

12. Results Japan: Linking OPGM Results to Global Energy Model (1)
 By using OPGM model (single-regional version), numerical relationships between
“PV/Wind fraction in annual power demand” and “PV/Wind power supplied to grid”
are calculated.
 This curves (RES Integration Curves) are mathematically formulated, and added to
global energy model (DNE21, cost minimization model) as additional constraints.
RES Integration Curves (Additional constraints in DNE21)
Wind PV

13. Results Japan: Linking OPGM Results to Global Energy Model (2)
Power Generation Mix (World)
Without RES integration curve With RES integration curve
Optimal Power Dispatch (Summer/Fair Weather/Japan)
PV integration is
reduced.

14. Results: Ireland (Annual Generation GWh)
Wind integration
reduced.

15. Fuel Type Irish TIMES Model PLEXOS Model
Gas-CC 0.01 1.10
Gas-New 2.95 3.12
Gas- Turbine 0.00 0.01
Distillate 0.00 0.38
Coal 5.77 4.35
Peat 2.48 2.20
Waste 0.14 0.14
Total 11.35 11.29
Results: Ireland (Annual Emissions MT)

16. Comparing Approaches
Japan
OPGM Model:
• Cost Minimization Model
• 10-min consideration of Wind & PV
RES Integration Curve
Global Energy Model (DNE21):
• Cost Minimization Model
• Temporal Resolution: 4 hours
Detailed evaluation for wind & PV integration
More plausible evaluation of wind & PV integration
in rough time-resolution model
Additional constraints in DNE21
Ireland
Irish TIMES:
• Energy Systems Model
• Low Carbon Roadmap
• 12 time slices
Irish TIMES:
• SNSP = 75%
• Equiv 50% VRE
Extract 2020 or 2030 power system results More plausible power system results in Irish TIMES
PLEXOS_Ireland:
• Dispatch Model
• 15 min – 1 hr temporal
• power plant detail
Additional constraints in Irish TIMES

17. Planned Next Steps
 Data Exchange between Ireland and Japan
- such as wind and PV outputs, power demand curves etc.
 Build and compare energy models in both countries
- compare ETSAP-TIAM with DNE21 focusing on Japan
- build a PLEXOS model for Japan to compare with OPGM
- build an OPGM model for Ireland to compare with PLEXOS
 Cross validation of simulated results
- such as power generation mix, storage, curtailment of wind
and PV etc.

18. Energy systems & power systems modelling
Comparing Experiences in Ireland and Japan
IEA ETSAP Workshop Copenhagen Nov 17 – 18 2014
Brian Ó Gallachóir, Ryoichi Komiyama, Paul Deane, Alessandro Chiodi, Maurizio Gargiulo, Tatsuhiko
Sugiyama, Takashi Otsuki, Yasumasa Fujii