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Analytics for Smarter Defence
- 1. Michael McCracken, Major, USAFR and Military Intelligence Strategy Leader, IBM
10 October 2012
Intelligence Analysis for Smarter Defence
Lesson’s Learned from 1,512 Days in Iraq and Afghanistan
© 2009 IBM Corporation
- 3. Organize information the way you want it to be found
(Visually, Verbally, or Numerically)
L by Location • Atlas
• Maps
• Latitude and Longitude
A by Alphabet
• Dictionary
• Maps
• Latitude and Longitude
T • Historical timeline
by Time
C • Time Magazine
• History Novel
H by Category
• Encyclopedia
• Department Store
• Yahoo Search Engine
• Largest to Smallest
by Hierarchy • Darkest to Lightest
• Densest to Least Dense
© 2009 IBM Corporation
- 4. August 2006 – February 2007
MNF-I CJ2X Detainee Operations, Bagdad, Iraq
Officer-In-Charge, Combined Review and Release Board (Capt, USAFR)
1 Mission
• Vetting Detainees Scheduled for Release
• Determine AQ-IZ
• Coordinate with TF-134 CG
2 Problem
• Mission 3x with NO additional resources
• Rising Political Pressures
• High Intelligence Analysts Turnover
3 Lesson
• Controlled Vetting Process
• Shop Standards
• Performance-based Metrics
© 2009 IBM Corporation
- 5. June 2008 – August 2008
MNC-I Counter-Improvised Explosive Devices Cell, Iraq
Explosively Formed Projectile Intelligence Analyst (US DoD Contractor)
1 Mission
• Analyze C-IED Tactics, Techniques and Procedures
• Analyze EFP Tactics, Techniques and Procedures
• Develop link analysis of IED cells in MNF-Ds
2 Problem
• Analysis miss-aligned with analysis areas of focus
• Duplicative efforts of MNF-I Intel Teams
• Lack of cohesive intelligence strategy
3 Lesson
• C-IED Cell disbanded / realigned with area teams
• MNC-I / MNF-I combined
• Comprehensive C-IED efforts imbedded across AO
© 2009 IBM Corporation
- 6. August 2008 – March 2009
MNSTC-I Intelligence Transition Team, Green Zone, Iraq
Information Technology / Intelligence Analyst (US DoD Contractor)
1 Mission
• Branch of MNF-I
• Develop, Organize, Train and Equip MoD/MoI
• Build sustainable intelligence model for IZ forces
2 Problem
• IZ forces lacked basic technical / intelligence skills
• IZ skeptical of western assistance
• Rapid build-up of capabilities pushed by CF
3 Lesson
• Progress requires host-nation buy-in
• Fundamental education required to build forces
• Sustainable capabilities require financial foundation
© 2009 IBM Corporation
- 7. March 2009 – February 2010
NTM-A RC-North Coordination Center, Mazar-e Sharif, AF
Intelligence Mentor to RC-North Coordination Center for ANA/ANP/NDS (US DoD Contractor)
1 Mission
• Branch of ISAF-A
• Develop, Organize, Train and Equip MoD/MoI
• Build basic intelligence skills of 209th Corp
2 Problem
• ANA/ANP lacked skills / desire to learn
• AF Forces have weak vetting process
• Challenged by basic intelligence skill sets
3 Lesson
• ISAF/USFOR-A unable to measure results
• DoD/DoS difficulty developing training program
• Security efforts continue to plague training mission
© 2009 IBM Corporation
- 8. March 2010 – June 2010
Biometric Enabled Intelligence, Kandahar (RC-S), AF
BEI Intelligence Analyst for 2 SCR Brigade HQ/FOBs in RC-S (US DoD Contractor)
1 Mission
• Easiest method to establish positive identification
• Develop comprehensive biometric program
• Build base of biometrically enrolled AF citizens
2 Problem
• Lack of priority and conflicting mission requirements
• ANA/ANP contamination of IED Explosions / F&C
• Slow reach-back support and low bandwidth
3 Lesson
• Improved training and leadership buy-in
• Stronger education / combined C-IED efforts
• Enemy tactics discovered and exploited across AO
© 2009 IBM Corporation
- 9. July 2010 – February 2012
Deputy Chief of Staff, Intelligence ISAF HQ, Kabul, AF
Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Analyst for US ISR-Task Force (US DoD Contractor)
1 Mission
• Support COMISAF on all Intelligence matters
• Develop comprehensive ISR mission
• Train and equip ISAF-A/USFOR-A on all intel
2 Problem
• Personality lead efforts / Fix Intelligence
• Intelligence Assessments / Tactical Employment
• Intelligence Fusion or Hidden Agendas
3 Lesson
• Right person for the right job
• Aerostats / Continue to ISR Surge / Build capes
• Be careful what you ask for (and get)
© 2009 IBM Corporation
- 10. Intelligence Assessment
External focus
(Intelligence Community)
Collaboration
Interconnected
objectives
Data Training
Discoverability
Internal focus
(agency)
© 2009 IBM Corporation