IBM Oil| Elevating enterpise risk management for market success

IBM Global Business Services

IBM Institute for Business Value

Chemical and
Petroleum
Where there’s
smoke …
Achieving safe and reliable
operations with enterprise
risk management

IBM Institute for Business Value
IBM Global Business Services, through the IBM Institute for Business Value,
develops fact-based strategic insights for senior executives around critical
public and private sector issues. This executive brief is based on an in-depth
study by the Institute’s research team. It is part of an ongoing commitment
by IBM Global Business Services to provide analysis and viewpoints that help
companies realize business value. You may contact the authors or send an
e-mail to iibv@us.ibm.com for more information.

Where there's smoke …
Achieving safe and reliable operations with enterprise risk management
By Steve Edwards, Stephen Williamson, Jacquie Glass, Michel Anderson, Penny Koppinger

Chemical and petroleum companies today face complex challenges
threatening their business, information and people. These risks have
traditionally been viewed through a finance or health, safety and
environmental (HSE) lens – often too narrowly focused. Companies
often undervalue and under invest in end-to-end risk management
activities, despite a distinct correlation between enterprise risk
management and market success. Elevating risk management to
the enterprise level can provide an opportunity to improve business
reliability, resilience, and predictability across the board.

“The discussion in the board rooms Risk: Taking a wide angle view
Seemingly, the only constant in today’s
today is whether management and
chemical and petroleum (C&P) businesses
the Board can “smell the smoke” is change. There is volatility in what is sold,
before the fire. Do they have a way where it is sold and to whom. Logistics and
operational environments are increasingly
to know what the risks are and if
complex as companies expand in hostile
so, do we have the capabilities to or distant locations. And the infrastructure
mitigate that risk?” required to manage it all gets more costly by
the day. As a result, companies face a broad
– Petroleum company executive
spectrum of complex risks threatening their
businesses, information and people. The

1 Where there’s smoke …

industry has been rocked by a number of and petroleum executives, a distinct corre-
catastrophes, ranging from refinery explosions lation exists between more sophisticated
to information concealment penalties. Often, risk management and market performance.
many of these events can be traced back to Enterprises with broader integrated risk
failed business practices, whether they be management characteristics tend to outper-
complex environmental impact programs or form others in the chemical and petroleum
simply managing behavioral changes as part industries. Admittedly, these numbers must
of implementing new standard operating prac- be taken in context of the entire business,
tices. but our research shows C&P outperformers
have both a greater return on net assets (9.3
Despite the increasing exposure to risk events, percent versus 7 percent), as well as a higher
.9
many companies view risk management as compound annual growth rate (18.7 percent
primarily a finance or health, safety and envi- versus 16 percent).
ronmental (HSE) problem. And, consequently,
C&P companies tend to treat risk as a “cost Like similar past evolutions – Material
center” and undervalue or under invest in inte- Requirements Planning (MRP) to Enterprise
grated risk management practices. Resource Planning (ERP), for example, or
order management to Customer Relationship
Yet, according to a recent survey by the IBM Management (CRM) – the move to enterprise
Institute for Business Value, which included risk management has the potential to posi-
more than 100 in-depth interviews of chemical tion companies to better manage their risk
exposure.

22 IBM Global Business Services
IBM Global Business Services

Where there's smoke …
Achieving safe and reliable operations with enterprise risk management

Managing enterprise risk: execution interviewed in our survey indicated a substan-
lags behind need tial gap exists between the desire of their
organizations to comprehensively manage risk
“In the past, we have not had and their ability to execute. Gaps are greatest
a clear picture of our operating in the study participants’ ability to provide the
risk envelope. We did not have a infrastructure for risk management, as well as
in the ability to manage risk to desired levels
holistic risk framework with the (see Figure 1). It appears that, while organiza-
relevant limits and culture. The tions rate themselves highly in HSE expertise
question for us going forward is (highest in fact), the largest gap centers on
their ability to drive continuous improvement
more about the focus of the orga- in this area, which is hindered by the lack of
nization rather than what are our information integration.
unknowns.” Certainly, a major reason for the gap is that
– Petroleum company executive risk management has been a lower priority in
the already overloaded executive agenda than
Over half of the C&P companies we surveyed other issues. While a large number of respon-
have encountered high-risk events since 2005. dents to our study were concerned about
And despite an industry-wide depth of knowl- such issues as regulatory compliance, perfor-
edge and expertise in safety, less than one mance measurement and cost reduction, only
third considered themselves prepared. This is 25 percent of top executives surveyed consid-
hardly surprising, given the fact that executives ered managing enterprise risk to be highly
important (see Figure 2).

FIGURE 1.
The gap between C&P organizations’ desire to manage risk and their ability to execute.

Gaps in ability Driving integration of information across
to provide the 3.15 3.82 Performance
the enterprise
infrastructure for Importance
risk, performance Continuous process improvement /
business improvement 3.42 Gap 4.07
and HSE
Supporting / managing / mitigating 3.94
Gaps in ability 3.39
enterprise risk
to manage risk,
performance, and Measuring / monitoring business
3.77 4.23
HSE to desired performance
levels Health, Safety, Environmental (HSE) -
4.09 4.64
operations
3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
Source: IBM Institute for Business Value.


FIGURE 2.
Managing risk and maintaining the required infrastructure have been lower priorities in the C&P
Risk management executive agenda.
entails delivering Percent of “highly important” responses
Regulatory compliance 54%
business objectives Measure/monitor business performance/compliance
40%
without surprise. and internal controls
Driving cost reduction 35%
Importance
Continuous improvement 33%
Develop people 33%
Manage/mitigate risk 25%
Drive integration of information cross-enterprise 20%


Elevating risk to the enterprise level ronment, C&P companies may look to develop
specific elements to manage those risks that
“Our sustainability board repre-
threaten their physical or business assets.
sents all businesses and functions Each is best accomplished, we believe, within
within the company. They define an enterprisewide risk management frame-
work. These include:
the sustainability strategy with
• Beyond the traditional: Creating a broader
specific improvement objectives.
focus for risk management entails devel-
This is combined with the group oping an expanded and prioritized definition
risk management process where of risk that goes beyond the traditional
financial and HSE standards.
each major function identifies
• Insight to risk: Gaining insight into potential
risk factors to be reviewed and
risks requires cross-enterprise standard-
monitored.” ization and convergence of risk and
– Chemical company executive performance.
• The risk aware culture: Establishing a
Risk management entails delivering business
corporate culture conducive to enterprise
objectives – without surprises – to the enter-
risk management requires fostering an
prise, shareholders and stakeholders through
environment of risk awareness and empow-
the day-to-day execution of safe and reliable
erment to act.
operations. In today’s complex business envi-


Beyond the traditional threat, two-thirds of our respondents identified
non-traditional risks such as environmental,
“Risk is not a once-per-year exer-
reputational or key skill shortages.
cise, but part of the overall busi-
By recognizing these emerging nontraditional
ness strategy. We look at enterprise
risks and incorporating them, along with tradi-
risk through a number of different tional risks, into their strategic and operational
lenses: external stakeholder, board, planning, organizations can build more resil-
iency into the way they operate. To facilitate
corporate management, business
this, we believe C&P companies should:
management. This helps to catch
• Identify risk hot spots
risks that we might otherwise miss.
• Prioritize risks based on potential impact
For example, the business units do
• Incorporate high-priority risk into planning.
not look at reputational risk.”
Identify risk hot spots
– Chemical company executive
Risk hot spots can be identified by their
It is important for executives to accurately impact on the business value drivers of each
assess the risks their companies face. individual company or industry. For example,
Typically, many companies have placed heavy revenue growth in the upstream oil and gas
emphasis on managing traditional risks, such industry might be impacted by production
as liquidity, compliance (regulatory, financial growth, the price of crude oil or the U.S.
reporting), credit and fraud. Although risk exchange rate. For the chemical industry,
management practices tend to focus on these risk hot spots affecting revenue growth might
traditional aspects, our respondents noted include product pricing, new product devel-
an increasing emphasis on non-traditional opment or production growth. Abandonment
risks (see Figure 3). In fact, when asked to rates may be critical to oil and gas profit
identify emerging risks that pose a significant margins, and geopolitical problems may cause
the cost of capital to increase for any industry.

FIGURE 3.
Contribution to risk management by C&P executives.
Percent
Liquidity risk 75 17 6 2
Compliance risk including financial reporting risk 72 18 7 2 Traditional

19 Credit and fraud risk 67 21 8 4
IT risk 21 42 24 13
Market risk 22 39 28 11
Non-financial:
Reputational risk 16 42 28 14
Operational
Episodic/catastrophic risk 15 32 28 25 and
Technology risk /operational 9 45 27 18 environmental
risk
Supply chain disruptions 6 38 36 21

Fully Partially Ad hoc contributor Don’t know


Risk hot spots should Prioritize risks based on potential impact Incorporate high-priority risk into planning
It is not cost effective to mitigate every risk, Once potential risk events are prioritized, C&P
be evaluated according
so prioritization is key. C&P companies can companies can then begin working on miti-
to their impact on key
look to evaluate risk hot spots based on their gation strategies. As one executive said, “We
business drivers. potential impact to key business drivers, identify risk as what keeps you up at night and
such as return on net assets (RONA). The what would keep you from meeting your busi-
correlations between risk types and possible ness objectives. The risk owners are identified,
consequences can be evaluated and under- mitigation steps are taken, and then reviewed
stood. Companies can identify and segment as appropriate by the executive committee.”
risks according to likelihood and impact. The Mitigation strategies drive the necessary
intersection of high impact and high prob- measurements and monitoring required (see
ability, for example, may signal a risk requiring Figure 4). Businesses should look toward
immediate action. Others might be deemed as incorporating these metrics into their day to
usually safe, those that could become poten- day activities and overall plan. Where enter-
tial problem areas, and, finally, those that, while prise risk management focuses on risk,
not likely to occur, could have catastrophic merging risk and performance creates metrics
impact on the company. that strive to manage both risk and operations.
Combined analyses of these metrics can drive
informed decisions based on business perfor-
mance.

FIGURE 4.
With potential risk events prioritized, mitigation strategies can be identified (illustrative).
Value drivers Risk events Mitigation strategies
Optimize price Process control and
negotiation process Discharges and emissions
Optimize price, HH reliability
cost, quality Optimize customer Maximize quality and
product mix consistency

Minimize flow Introduce higher value
Energy management/
material costs products Environmental compliance
Flow materials costs Maximize flow Minimize energy
Environmental stewardship
material yield acquisition price

Minimize energy HH
Optimize energy use
costs
Distribution safety Vendor management
Minimize product Minimize logistics
Variable costs re-work prices

Optimize logistics Optimize logistics HH
costs Predictive maintenance
networks
Maintenance/Reliability
Maximize on-stream HH
Reduce unscheduled strategies
time downtime
Return on net assets Reduce scheduled
(RONA) Maximize utilization
downtime Process control/
Asset safety
Increase overall Push units against HH Performance monitoring
effective capacity constraints

Optimize working Reduce process
capital variability Procedures/competence/
Fixed costs Workforce safety
Maximize staff reliability
productivity
H/H = high value, high risk



Case study: Insight to risk
BASF and process risk management1
BASF uses several enterprisewide tools and
“We need to change the culture
methods to manage its risk – from product so that management information
environmental impact to emergency response. is regarded as a corporate asset
As the company develops products, it uses a
and then put in place the standard
process risk management system that incorpo-
rates an eco-friendly analysis framework. The processes to collect it”
BASF Eco-Efficiency Analysis is a tool to evaluate – Petroleum company executive
which future products and processes to pursue.
The company can evaluate the products based To manage the broader definition of enter-
on both cost and environmental impact over prisewide risk – encompassing HSE,
the entire product lifecycle. The model uses reputational risk, product risk and others –
an analysis that includes land use, energy and requires underlying integration capabilities.
material consumption, hazard or risk potential,
An enterprisewide infrastructure of standard
toxicity and emissions. Each product is analyzed
business practices and information allows
against potential alternatives to select the best
monitoring of risks and provides guidance for
normalized cost and environmental impact
the necessary actions when a situation arises.
alternative.
In our study, outperforming companies were a
A recent addition to the BASF process includes third more likely to have standard processes,
SEEBALANCE, what the company calls a “cradle global process ownership and global informa-
to grave, costs, and social aspects” compre- tion standards. And they were twice as likely
hensive method to monitor sustainability. Working to have global processes in place. These
with several universities, BASF is incorporating
elements, recognized as important by outper-
societal impacts into its analysis to create a three
formers, make up what we term integrated risk
dimensional model of cost, environmental and
management.
societal impact analysis. The societal leg of the
tool considers areas such as working conditions, According to our study, C&P companies
international community (e.g. child labor), future understand the need for an integrated
generations, consumers, and local and national infrastructure to support risk management
community impacts. operations, but, surprisingly, only 1 percent
On the operation side of the business, BASF of executives believe they are currently
employs an emergency response management managing risk in an integrated environment.
system that encompasses its own facilities, The vast majority of executives do believe,
subsidiaries and joint ventures, as well as its however, that while building an integrated
suppliers, customers and neighboring cities infrastructure is difficult, it must become a top
in which the company operates. BASF uses a priority for their companies. And they know
five-step review system to prevent plant disasters that obstacles stand in the way.
such as fires or chemical leaks. The process
considers the HSE aspects of how plants are
designed and operated. The BASF risk matrix
is used to assess potential hazards and classify
potential risks according to their impact and
estimated frequency.


Barriers to the integration of risk management Establish global, cross-enterprise
are significant. In fact, three of the top four standards
barriers identified by our study respondents Process ownership drives common processes
are tied to global standardization of processes, across large organizations. Formal safety prac-
technologies or information (see Figure 5). tices should be established, for example, with
broadly communicated performance expecta-
To overcome these barriers and provide insight tions, to enable the analysis of safety across
into potential risk, companies should look to the enterprise.
create a systemwide view of integrated risk
management across the entire enterprise, Almost half of companies we surveyed have
built on standards and merging a balance of no enforced global standards or do not think
risk and performance into daily activities. Key they are necessary. But when asked to assess
actions to providing risk insight are: the benefits of an integrated infrastructure,
our respondents identified greater efficiency
• Establish global, cross-enterprise standards
through economies of scale (42 percent),
through process ownership
reduced cycle time for decisions (38 percent),
• Simplify enabling systems and organiza- increased collaboration (31 percent), better
tional structures return on assets (27 percent) and increased
• Formalize risk management activities to ability to respond to risk events (25 percent).
close performance gaps. Additional benefits identified included
increased resiliency, effective leveraging of
global human assets, continuous business
transformation and enhancement of customer
experience.

FIGURE 5.
Barriers to integration of risk management are significant – with three of the top four tied to
global standardization.
Percent of top 2 responses
Culture (e.g., corporate culture, resistance to change, 46%
lack of executive sponsorship)
Process (e.g., lack of standardization) 35%

Enabling technology (e.g., lack of risk platform/tools) 28%
Data (e.g., lack of standards, quality, availability) 27%
Organization (e.g., governance, infrastructure,
business conflicts) 25%
Access/process controls (e.g.,, not adequately 8%
embedded in risk systems)
Financial (e.g., lack of capital, no budget committed) 7%



Enterprisewide standards Simplify enabling systems and Formalize risk management activities to
organizations close performance gaps
increase ability to
Not only do standard processes, ownership Reducing complexity then allows for better
simplify systems and and information create a common busi- management of risk to close performance
organizational structures. ness language, they simplify the resulting gaps. Once there is a common business
world around them. Enterprisewide process language and, wherever possible, a simpli-
and data standards increase the ability to fied underlying infrastructure, increasingly
simplify systems and organizational structures. formalized risk management activities can be
Technologies and the associated delivery implemented. Tools like predictive analyses
models help maintain global standards while or embedded process controls become
providing greater flexibility and speed to adapt common. And as Figure 6 shows, C&P outper-
to change. The integrated risk management forming companies are much more likely to
respondents were 2.5 times more likely to have use formal risk management techniques than
simplified their operations infrastructure than under performers.
non-integrated companies in the areas of:
fewer enterprise resource planning instances Merging performance and risk management
or data warehouses, reduced the number of as part of daily operations enables compa-
other supporting applications, encouraged nies to prioritize risk within the context of the
the use of shared services for repetitive or company’s overall key performance indicators.
transactional activities, provided centers of It combines risk analyses into a single defini-
excellence for decision support and created tion of performance and drives intelligent,
the opportunity for greater focus on core busi- informed business decisions based on those
ness performance. business performance indicators. Insight
into risk provides the visibility to act when
warranted.

FIGURE 6.
C&P outperformers are more likely to formalize and integrate risk processes into their businesses.
Percent
Formal risk ID institutionalized within organization’s 8 15 35
responsibilities
Routine management monitor/report of risk factors 10 18 35
19
Specific risk thresholds (e.g., formal triggers) 3 14 28

Historical compare of KRI and KPI (variance) 5 15 24

Risk-adjusted forecast and plan 4 7 24

Economic capital and allocation 2 7 22
Predictive analytics/modelling for measuring and
monitoring risk 3 11 19

Access/process controls fully embedded in risk systems 1 5 18

Share risk data with value network 1 4 12

We don’t have a formalized risk framework 2 4 4

Underperformer Middle performer Outperformer


The risk aware culture Orchestrating and communicating risk
management from the top
“Our plan is to evolve to full board As companies elevate risk management to
accountability. The chief risk officer the enterprise level and combine risk and
has a direct line to both the CFO performance metrics, they have an oppor-
tunity to push accountability for action and
and the board chairman.” overall direction up the corporate ladder. In
“People tend to chase profit over fact, our survey shows that “C”-level execu-
tives in outperforming companies are 83
safety, giving the wrong messages percent more likely to consider themselves
to operations.” the owners of risk as a part of their leadership
– Chemical products and services company role, compared with 64 percent of par and
executive underperformers. Companies pushing risk
responsibility to the top levels of the corpora-
Once employees have the visibility to act in a tion sometimes assign a C-level executive,
risk situation, how can a company make sure create a strategic team of executives led by a
people make the best choices? What causes CFO or COO, or create a new chief risk officer
an experienced person to ignore a safety role to lead enterprise risk management.
practice “just this once?” Despite the advan-
Top leadership should assume the role of chal-
tages of enterprisewide risk management,
lenging and prioritizing the risk management
most executives we interviewed recognize that
plan on a regular basis. Top executives can act
numerous people-related challenges stand in
as leaders between the board level to middle
the way of implementation. Prominent among
management to communicate the enterprise’s
those identified are the overall culture of the
official position on risk appetite and toler-
company, resistance to change and lack of
ance. As these areas are resolved, companies
executive sponsorship.
should make sure appropriate resources are
Executives in risk management leadership allocated and progress is measured regularly.
roles are critical to the success of managing
enterprise risk and must be both aware of the
Creating an adaptive organizational model
Once defined, risk behaviors need to be
risk environment and empower employees
managed and adapted as conditions change
to act. Companies promoting empowerment
over time. Companies need to create a
should orchestrate and communicate risk
common, yet flexible approach to match
management from the top and create an
specific situations and adapt to various
adaptive organizational model.
cultures and areas within the business.
Linkages in the various aspects of human
behavior can be characterized by a causal
model of organizational learning. (such as


As enterprise risk Burke-Litwin). System views capture cultural Looking Forward: How to anticipate
management becomes elements such as strategy, communication, rather than react
leadership, empowerment, motivation and
more sophisticated,
others to guide organizational analysis and
“We are very opportunistic in com-
risk and performance adoption.
2
bining compliance with profits and
converge. capital planning and consider our
Using a common framework linked to
performance metrics provides quantifiable approach a best practice.”
organizational information and trends to – Petroleum company executive
evaluate risk decision making and enhance
corporate learning. It can enable identifica- Creating a forward-looking risk management
tion, for instance, of why people at one refinery approach – one that anticipates risk rather
approach safety differently to another. Do their than reacting to it – requires a dedicated
managers set a different example? Are they approach that factors where your company
from a different legacy business looking at currently stands in the process with where you
safety in a different way? Have they interpreted want it to go (see Figure 7). Most companies
the mission and strategy differently? initially focus on regulatory compliance, the
price of entry for any industry. As they become
People require normalization of behaviors to
35 25 adept at standardizing practices, they can
reduce variability and, therefore, risk. The key
then move to the next phase of simplifying
element is to create and maintain a risk aware-
operations. As enterprise risk management
ness culture and environment that eliminates
becomes increasingly sophisticated, risk
variability of results wherever possible.
and performance converge to drive deci-
sion making. And last, the knowledge of risks
acquired can then be used to make forward-
looking business decisions.

FIGURE 7.
The risk management value curve: a shift from cost to growth based business decisions.
Sustainable
growth
Maximized Performance-based
efficiency decisions
Standard
practices Integrates risk
Aligns risk into forward
Simplifies the
Compliance performance via looking business
Standardizes company’s
convergence with decisions
business processes,
technologies overall business
Adheres to laws processes and
and organization objectives and
in the countries information
structures business metrics
for health, safety across enterprise
and reliability


As our research clearly shows, companies with Department or site based approaches of
broader integrated risk management charac- the past have often been too incremental or
teristics tend to be well positioned to improve isolated. Elevating risk management to the
reliability, resilience and predictability. What are enterprise level – much like ERP – will enable
these factors that successful companies have systematic, enterprisewide continuous improve-
in common? Our research shows those with ments in the integration of HSE and beyond.
effective integrated risk management systems This broader approach allows the integration
tend to: of risk mitigation into daily activities across the
• Focus on what risks are important to their breadth of a company’s lifecycle – and encom-
company’s success passes the depth of risk, from health and safety
to product, market and financial. And like ERP ,
• Create a common business language the more you do, the more you will be able to
across their enterprises through common do – the culture adapts and the rate of change
processes and technologies – one that will accelerates. No doubt, creating integrated
ultimately reduce complexity enterprise risk management is a significant,
• Assign enterprise risk responsibility to the transformative – and sometimes daunting –
highest levels of the corporation undertaking. But those that succeed often
• Provide the visibility to employees to know become the industry’s top performers.
when to act There’s still room at the top. Where do you
• Allow and encourage their people to do the want to be?
right thing
• Grow and share lessons learned so that
their companies and their people can adapt
as conditions change
• Integrate risk into their forward-looking
business decisions.


About the authors Penny Koppinger is a Senior Managing
Steve Edwards is the IBM Global Industry Consultant and IBM Institute for Business
Leader for the chemical and petroleum Value Leader for Chemical, Petroleum and
industries. He is based in London and can be Industrial Products. She has worked in
reached at steve.edwards@uk.ibm.com. business consulting and industry, focusing
on the impact of technology on business
Stephen Williamson is an Associate Partner in strategy. She has published recent articles
the IBM Global Business Services Chemicals on automotive strategies and tactics, such
and Petroleum Practice. He works with oil as “Changing lanes for success: Flexible
majors and chemical companies to improve automotive business models in times of
operational processes and business systems. accelerated change.” She recently received an
He is currently working with an oil major to invention award for her first patent submission
develop and implement a global maintenance for Component Business Modeling. Penny can
management system and recently led the be contacted at pkopping@us.ibm.com.
development of the IBM point of view on
safe and reliable operations. Stephen can be About IBM Global Business Services
contacted at stephen.l.williamson@uk.ibm. With business experts in more than 160
com. countries, IBM Global Business Services
Jacquie Glass is a Global Industry provides clients with deep business process
Consultant for IBM Global Business and industry expertise across 17 industries,
Services and has more than 30 years health, using innovation to identify, create and deliver
safety and environmental experience in value faster. We draw on the full breadth of IBM
manufacturing, construction, nuclear, rail, capabilities, standing behind our advice to
utilities, facilities management, upstream help clients innovate and implement solutions
offshore and downstream onshore oil and designed to deliver business outcomes with
gas, chemical and petroleum processing and far-reaching impact and sustainable results.
pharmaceuticals. She has recently focused
efforts on end-to-end integration of safety and References
reliability with business process. Jacquie can 1 BASF Web site. http://www.corporate.basf.
be contacted at jacquie.glass@uk.ibm.com. com/en/sustainability/oekologie/?id=V00-
J9Kk-CbK_bcp2GK
Michel Anderson in a Partner in the Plant 2 National Institutes of Health Web site. http://
Operations Practice for IBM Global Business www.nida.nih.gov/about/organization/
Services. He has more than 30 years DESPR/HSR/da-tre/DeSmetAdaptiveModels.
experience in designing, building and html#part2burke
operating Chemical and Petroleum complexes
with national and global corporations in
Europe, the Middle East, Asia and the
Americas. Additionally, he has worked for
operating companies and software companies
that focus on operational excellence programs
for the Chemical and Petroleum complex.
He holds a Bachelor of Science degree from
Auburn University. Michel can be contacted at
cmanders@us.ibm.com.


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