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[Updated Lecture Note-4] Not for Circulation
Dr. Park, Jin
Executive President, Asia Future Institute
Seoul, Korea
November 2012

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 By Year 2050 by ADB
 Scenario A (Asia’s Era)
◦ 52% of the World GDP
◦ USD40,800 per capita income
 Scenario B (Asia in pitfall)
◦ 31% of the World GDP
◦ USD20,600 per capita income
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea

3. 3
 By Year 2050 by Goldman Sachs
◦ China ahead of US in GDP
during 2030s
◦ Next 11: Korea, Mexico (OECD)
Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia,
Iran, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines,
Turkey, Vietnam
 Criteria by GES (Growth Environment Score)
Source: Goldman Sachs Paper No. 134 (2005. 12)
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea

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 However…
 Unpredictable future
 Trilateral power competition
among China, Japan
and India
Source: Bill Emmott, RIVALS: How the Power Struggle
Between China, India and Japan will Shape Our Next Decade
(Penguin Books, revised Ed. 2009).
 Competition and cooperation between U.S. and
China (G2 Partnership)
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea

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Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea

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○ Five Key Areas
1. Sustainable economic growth
2. Regional cooperation
3. Democracy and human rights
4. Green growth and energy
5. Cultural communication
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea

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Image Source: TIME Magazine
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea

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Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea

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New Delhi, India
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea

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▶ Total GDP: $ 1.8 trillion
(2010)
▶ Trade Volume: $ 1.4
trillion
Source: CIA The World Factbook
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea

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Image Source: Yonhap News Agency
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea

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1950 (Korean
War)
2012
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea

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Japan (1987) Germany (1991)
$46,973 $42,625
127.33 M 81.61 M
U.S. (1989) U.K. (1996)
$49,601 $38,891
314.70 M 63.06 M
France (1990)
$42,793 South Korea
63.37 M
(2012)
Italy (1990) $23,680 per
$33,942 capita
60.89 M 50 M population
Sources: The Chosun Ilbo, IMF
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea

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 Korea in 2012:
- USD23,680 per capita and 50M population
 Korea in 2025
- World’s No. 3 per capita income
with USD51,923
 Korea in 2050:
- World’s No. 2 per capita income
with USD81,462
Source: Goldman Sachs Paper No. 134
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea

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 Economic Growth: Sustainable?
 Socio-Economic bipolarization
 Aging society / low birth rate
 Demand for social welfare: Populism?
 Energy security
 North Korea: Korean unification?
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea

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Source: The Straits Times(2012. 8. 15) , Wealth Report 2012
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea by Knight Frank and Citi Private Bank

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 A hub country of global FTA Network
◦ The only country having FTA both with US and EU
 Free trade within Asia
◦ FTA with Singapore, India and ASEAN
◦ FTA negotiations with China, Vietnam
◦ FTA discussion with Japan
◦ Trilateral FTA talks with China and Japan
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea

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EFT Cana
A
(4)
Chin da
U.S.
European
a A
Mexic
Union KOREA Japa o
(27) Turkey n
Columb
Per ia
ASEA
Gulf Indi N
u
Chil
Countrie
s a (10) e
(6) Australi New
Zealand
a
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea

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ASEAN +3
TPP
ASEAN+6
(RCEP)
Source: Ajoo news
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea

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 From beneficiary to aid donor
 KSP: Knowledge Sharing Program
 Cooperation with ADB and World Bank
 17th country for ODA support through
KOICA
(From GNI 0.15% to 0.25%)
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea

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① Vietnam (41)
-The Export-Import Bank
-Industry-Univ. Collaboration
China ② Indonesia (25)
Korea Japan
-Bond Market Roadmap
-Promoting Export-Oriented
Enterprise
③ Cambodia (19)
-Issuing Government Bonds
Pacific
-Introducing Life Insurance
Ocean
④ Laos (8)
-Crisis Management
-Private capital inducement
⑤ Philippines (3)
-Financial Management
-Accrual Method of Accounting
⑥ Myanmar (3)
-Rural Development Plan
-Exclusive Industrial Zone
Source: KDI
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea Image Source: Dong A Ilbo

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(ITCC)
(ITCC)
Source: National Information Society Agency
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea

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Source: National Information Society Agency
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea

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North Korea: The Military First Policy
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea

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North Korea: Nuclear Programs
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea

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North Korea: Dynasty Continues
Grandson as New Commander-in-Chief
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea

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Window of Opportunity
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea Image Source: prof. Rudiger Frank, University of Vienna

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· Gradual and peaceful unification pursued
-German model may not be applicable
· Step by Step economic and cultural integration
desirable
-through trade, investments, and human exchanges
· Political and military confidence building process
necessary
-through high-level dialogues and arms reduction
initiatives
· Meanwhile, refugees from North Korea keep growing
- a small-scale unification is already happening in the
South
· Still, lessons to be learned from German
experience….
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea Image Source: Dong A Ilbo

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World in 2050 and United Korea
· Population: 68M
· GDP: $6,056 billion
· Per Capita Income:
$86,000
Source: Goldman Sachs Paper No. 188 ‘
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea A United Korea? Reassessing North Korea Risks (Part I), (2009.

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 Asia: Diversity of cultural heritages
 Asia: complexity of historical legacies
 Are there “Asian values”?
-Confucian values: Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan,
Singapore and Vietnam
 1997 financial crisis and criticism on Asian Values
 Still, family values, social harmony, benign leadership,
morals and ethics count in Asia
-China: spreading Confucian Academy
-Japan: reflecting Confucian Culture
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea

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Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea

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Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea

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PSY’s ‘GangNam Style’ music video hits over 810 million
YouTube views / Clinching Top Ranking in Billboard Hot 100
N. America
Europe
Asia 23 mil
21 mil
49 million S. America
4 mil
Oceania
3 mil
Unknown Africa
.7 mil .3 mil
Source: Joong Ang Ilbo
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea

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Marriages Jobs
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea

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 New Middle Power in Asia (G20)
 Successfully Transformed Economy and Democracy
 Strong Soft Power: to promote regional cooperation,
to facilitate green growth, and
to expand cultural communication
 Divided Nation
 Aging society
 BUT…Much to share experience with
and contribute to Asia for peace and prosperity
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea

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Challenges for Asia Korea’s Roles Vision for Future
Sustainable -Growth Stimulator
economic growth -Free Trade Openness / Prosperity
Promoter
Regional cooperation -Regional Integrator Integration /
-Development Community Building
-Peace Maker
Supporter
Democracy and -Democratic Pioneer Transparency /
Human Rights -Human Rights Good Governance
Green Growth and Advocator
-Green Growth Innovation /
Energy Facilitator Social Welfare
Cultural -Energy Reformer
-Cultural
Communication Communicator Sharing / Soft Power
-Multicultural
Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea

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