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360 Degree Perspective of the Electric
           Vehicle Market
            White Paper for:




                   March, 2011
Contents



           Future Urban Mobility and Society Trends and Its
           Implications to Personal Mobility


           Electric Vehicle Market Status and Outlook



           Consumer Perceptions About Electric Vehicles



           Overview of Frost & Sullivan EV Research Program




                                                              2
Future Urban Mobility and Society Trends and
      Implications to Personal Mobility




                                               3
Cities Globally Will Become Networked, Integrated and Branded -
Polarization of Vehicle Sizes Is Creating Demand for EVs in Mega Cities

        1950s Urbanisation                                                            2020s : Branded Cities

                                                                                                                                     Living areas
                                                                                                                                   expanding well
                                                                                                                                    outside of the
                                                                                                                                  peninsular loop in
      Creation of the historic centre and districts                                                                                San Francisco

     2000s Suburbanisation




                                                                                                                       Source: Frost & Sullivan


     Urban sprawl, first highways and ring road       • Most offices moved to the first belt suburbs except non cost-sensitive activities: city centres
                                                        becoming shopping areas (small scale deliveries) for expensive goods and living areas for
         2015s Network City                             “double income, no kids” households.
                                                          cars needed to go to the working areas/malls outside first and second belt.
                                                      • Industry offices moved out to the first belt area as also medium income families while
                                                        manufacturing facilities and low-medium income families relocated in the second and third
                                                        belt areas with logistics centres created on 2nd belt periphery.
                                                      • ‘Green wave’ families living outside cities in outer suburban area. Hypermarkets and malls
                                                        mostly created inside the third belt low cost area (large scales deliveries).
  Third suburban area and cities along the highways       cars needed to go from outer suburban areas to join the intermodal public transport and
   created, ring road overblown by the urban sprawl
                                                        working areas in third and second belt.


                                                                                                                                                     4
Urbanisation Will Lead to Development of Mega Regions and Mega
Corridors – 30 Mega cities and 15 mega regions by 2025.




          MEGA CITY                    MEGA REGIONS                   MEGA CORRIDORS
  Urban area with more than 10     Region within the perimeter       The area alongside the
   million inhabitants and GDP    formed by the combination of    transport corridor connecting
   (PPP) more than 100 billion     two or more closely located     two or more major cities or
               USD.                 major cities or megacities,        business districts or
                                    over 15 million population             megacities.
  Urban area encompasses the
  areas of the suburbs and the    EXAMPLE: Johannesburg and           EXAMPLE: Hong Kong-
  outer business activity hubs.    Pretoria region called “Jo-    Shenhzen-Guangzhou in China
                                              Toria”                 (Population 120 Million)
   EXAMPLE: Greater Tokyo,
   Greater New York, Greater
            Mumbai




                                                                                                  5
Top 20 Megacities – Regional Transportation Policies
Congestion , low emission zones, road user charging and special EV incentives in the emerging economies will
have a major impact on electric mobility


                  Delhi          Mumbai           Beijing        Shanghai       Moscow       Seoul     New York   London          Tokyo


  Bus Rapid
                                                                   2011                      2011
  Transit Lanes


  Metro/Subway                     2011



  Congestion
                  Planned         Planned           2012           2012          Future                 Planned                   Future
  Charging


  Parking Cuts


  Road use                                        1 Week          1 week                     1 Week
                                    Yes                                                                                           Future
  Charging/Ban                                    Day Ban         Day Ban                   Day Ban*


  EV/Hybrid
  Incentives


  Bicycle Lanes


                                                                                                         CAFÉ
                                                                                 Euro 3                            Euro 4         25%
  Emission                                                                                             27.5mpg.
                  Euro 4          Euro 4           Euro 4          Euro 4       Euro 4 by    Euro 4               Euro 5 by     reduction
  Standard                                                                                             34.1 mpg
                                                                                  2012                              2011         by 2015
                                                                                                        by 2016

   Not planned     Existing currently     * Voluntary no road usage incentive
                                                                                                                        Source: Frost & Sullivan




                                                                                                                                            6
‘Smart’ is the new ‘Green’: Over 40 Global Cities to be SMART Cities in 2020 -
More than 50% of smart cities of 2025 will be from Europe and North America.
China and India to see over 50 New “Sustainable” Cities
                                                           Evolution of Megacities: Key Smart Cities (Global), 2009 - 2025




                                                                                               Amsterdam
                                                                      London
                                      Boulder
                                                                                                                                                 Tianjin
                                                                                                                                 GIFT
                San Francisco                                                     Göteborg
                                                                                               Stockholm
                                                                       Reykjavik    Oslo        Hammarby Sjöstad                                                   Songdo
                                                     Montreal            Clonburris          Copenhagen
                                   Vancouver
                                                                           St David's
                                  Seattle             Toronto                                Freiburg
                                         Portland
                                                                                           Paris                                Dongtan
                Treasure Island                                                    Barcelona                                 Changsha
                                                    Destiny
                       Coyote Springs                                                                                                      Meixi Lake
                                                                                                                             Khajuraho
                                Arcosanti       Babcock Ranch
                                                                                                                   Pune                                 Singapore City
                                                       Bogota                                                         Kochi




                                                                                                                                                         Waitakere, N.Z.
                                                           Curitiba
                                                                                     Cape Town                 Masdar
                                                                                                                                Moreland, Australia

 Legend
    Cities built from scratch
    Existing eco cities

    Existing eco megacities


                                                                                                                                                                 Source: Frost & Sullivan



                                                                                                                                                                                       7
Urban Planning : Snapshot of a SMART Mega City Plan in 2020

                                  SMART Infrastructure:
   SMART Buildings: At
                                  Multimodal Transport
   least 50% of buildings
                                  Hubs Providing Excellent
   will be Green and                                                              SMART Energy: 20%
                                  Air, Rail, Road
   Intelligent built with BIPV.                                                   of Energy Produced in
                                  Connectivity to Other
   20% of the buildings will                                                      the City will be
                                  Mega Cities.
   be Net Zero Buildings.                                                         Renewable (Wind,
                                                                                  Solar etc)


SMART Technology:
Intelligent
Communication
Systems Connecting
Home, Office,
iPhone and Car on a                                                                     SMART GRID:
Single Wireless IT                                                                      Infrastructure to
Platform.                                                                               Enable Real time
                                                                                        monitoring of
                                                                                        power flow and
                                                                                        Provide Energy
                                                                                        Surplus Back to
  Satellite Towns: Main City
                                                                                        the Grid
  Centre will Merge with
  Several Satellite Towns to
  form ONE BIG MEGA CITY
                                                             SMART Cars: At least 7% of
                                                             Cars will be Electric Vehicles.
 Source: Google Images



                                                                                                      8
SMART CITY CASE STUDY: Amsterdam - Ordering over 200 Leafs
from Nissan with key objective to reduce Particulate Matter in City

      SMART MOBILITY                                   SMART LIVING                             SMART WORKING PLACE


      • 39% commute by bicycle
      • 400+ Km of dedicated cycle
        route
      • To familiarize electric bicycle
        taxis

      • 200 charging stations by 2012;
      • 10,000 EVs By 2015                • 1200 homes to feature smart meters        • ITO tower is testing the use of smart
      • Encourage car sharing               and energy management systems.              meters and energy efficient appliances to
                                          • 14% reduction in energy use is              cut energy consumption.
                                            expected of this smart meter project      • Design aesthetics of building absorb
      • Cheaper parking slots at                                                        natural light and air from the environment
P+R     public transit stations to
        park cars and board trains                   SMART PUBLIC SPACE
                                                                                        thereby keep artificial lighting and HVAC
                                                                                        use to minimum.




x     • Yearly reduction of parking
        spaces and increase of tariffs
        inside the city.
                                                        *****                                SMART COMMUTE to WORK




      • 30 kmph speed limits on 80%       • Utrechtsestraat – the popular narrow
        of roads inside the city -          shopping street downtown is to feature
        makes bicycles faster by at                                                   • 25 MNCs have jointly signed to reduce
                                            energy efficient street lighting,
        least 50% on a A-B trip.                                                        home to work car miles by 10% by 2012.
                                          • Sustainable tram stops with solar
                                                                                      • Incentive/free bicycles to employees
                                            powered displays and billboards
      • 154 shore power connections                                                   • Free & protected bike parks at offices to
                                          • Solar powered garbage bins with built
        to charge inland cargo vessels                                                  encourage cycle use.
                                            in compacters will be installed on this
        and river cruisers to be                                                      • Work from home if necessary
                                            street
        installed by 2012


                                                                                                                                     9
Electric Vehicle Market Status and Outlook




                                             10
About 30% of global vehicle sales will be green cars (Hybrids, EVs and Alternate
fuels) by 2015 – More than 80% of the growth from Hybrids and Electric Vehicles


                                                                      Powertrain Sales Mix (World), 2017
                          25                                                                                                                                       85 – 90
                                                                                                                                                                   Million
                                                                                            Gasoline                              Diesel                              2-3%%
                                                                                            Hybrids                               Alternative Fuels                   9-11%
                          20                  4%                                            Electric Vehicles
54 million                                    8%
                                    4%                                 1%                                                                                             17-19%
                                    6-7%      14%                            1%
    1%                                                              3%
    8%                    15                                          9%
               Millions




    4%                                        10%                                                                                                                     14-16%
    17%

                                    55%
                          10


                                                                      86%
                                              64%                                                                                                                     53-55%
                                                    2%                            1-2%
    70%                                                        3%
                           5       17%                                                                                16%
                                                     24%                                                     3%
                                                                                  58%        13%
                                                           7%
                                                                                                    1%
                                                                                  13%        35%                      19%                 1%
                                    17%                  64%                                                                       7%                38%
                                                                                                            80%              6%          31%                 12%
                                                                                  28%        50%                                         60%         50%
                                                                                                                            75%
                           0
                               W.Europe
                                W. E uro pe   NA
                                              NA    Japan
                                                     J a pa n       China
                                                                    C hina    Latinin
                                                                                La t       India
                                                                                            India        Russia
                                                                                                          R us s ia    South h
                                                                                                                        S o ut          Southa
                                                                                                                                         Ko re     Middle
                                                                                                                                                   M iddle
                                                                             America a
                                                                              A m e ric                                Africa a
                                                                                                                        A f ric         Korea       East t
                                                                                                                                                     Eas           2017
 2009
                                                                                                                                           Source: Frost & Sullivan

 Notes:
 • Hybrids include Micro (Start-stop), Mild and Full Hybrids
 • Alternative Fuels include LPG and CNG; flex-fuel vehicles included under ‘Diesel’ and ‘gasoline’ in Europe
 • Hybrids include diesel and gasoline and to avoid double counting they are not included in only “Diesel” or “gasoline” categories
 • Total for 2009 and 2016 includes only regions mentioned here. Excludes rest of the world
 • All sales nos. represent volumes for the regions mentioned in the chart only




                                                                                                                                                                               11
Global Electric Vehicle Demand Analysis – Potential of 2.2mil in 2017

                       Electric Vehicle Market: Sales Forecasts Scenario Analysis (World), 2009-2017




                                                                                                                                   2020
 Scenario's    2009      2010      2011      2012      2013      2014        2015             2016              2017            (% of Total
                                                                                                                                Car Sales)

 Optimistic
               4,500     23,100   123,800   289,500   665,000   1060,400   1,714,500       2,220,300         3,202,000             10-12%
  Scenario

F&S Scenario   4,500    16,500    72,000    193,000   453,000   792,000    1,287,500       1,736,000         2,203,000              5-7%

Conservative
               4,500     13,500   35,600    82,500    150,300   195,100    300,500          450,000           670,000               3-4%
  Scenario
                                                                              Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan


                                                                                                                                                     12
EV Breakdown By Region - CEVs to Account for 60% of global EV sales in
2017

                                  EV Breakdown By Region – Sales Estimates (World), 2017

                                                                                                                         2.2 Million
                                                                                                                                1%
                                                       1%              2%                                                       3%
                                               2%                                  3%
                                                       22%
                 Unit Shipments




                                                                                                                               28%
                                                                      35%
                                                       6%
                                                                                                                                8%


                                                                      11%
    4,500
                                                       69%
      2%                                10%                                                                                    60%


                                         22%                                                1%
     83%                                         4%                   49%
                                                                                   5%                    20%
               7%                                                                           11%
      7%                                64%
                                                                                            63%
   2009                                                                                                                     2017

                                                                   Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009 Source: Frost & Sullivan


• Japan and China are the key markets for APAC=> likely 80% market share. China expects major share from the local
OEMs and potential for strong growth in India.

• eREV and PHEVs likely to account major share in the North American market driven by the virtue of
demographics and customer driving characteristics => GM & Chrysler OEMs for eREVs. On the other hand, CEVs suit
the demographics for the Europe.



                                                                                                                                          13
Over 62 OEMs expected to compete in the global EV market with over
124 models by 2015

                                              Global EV Market: EV Sales Breakdown by Vehicle Segments, 2017
                                                                               10.0%                                     A - Basic                   B - Small
                                                                                                                         C - Lower Medium            D - Upper Medium
Total Market Size (Sales Units)               2.2 Mn                                                                     MPV                         Quadra-cycle

  Total Number of EV OEMS                      >62                                                                       F - Luxury                  G - Sports
                                                                  23.9%                                                 SUV                          Unclassified
                                                                                                    43.9%
 Total Number of EV Models                    >124                                                                       Van




                                                                        7.6%                                 2.8%

                                                                               4.2%                   0.7%
                                                                                             2.5%
                                                                                      4.1%
                    (94%)                                                                                             (6%)
        TRADITIONAL OEMS – (Sales Unit)                                                                  NON – TRADITIONAL – (Sales Unit)



                                                                                                    15,000
                                                                                                                      THINK     City ZENN                         Heuiiez WILL
      iMEV           BMW Mini   Nissan Leaf    GM Volt                                                       14,800                         Pininfarina -Blue
                                                            Toyota IQ


                                                                                                             70,000


                                                                                                                                BYD F6DM         CODA           OPTIMAL ENERGY
  Subaru - R1e/G4e    VW UP     Volvo C30     Tata Indica    Smart                                                    ZAP


                                                                          2017                               2017

                                                                                                                                                                           14
North American Main Category of Electric Vehicles

      Electric Vehicle Market: Planned Electric Vehicle Product Offerings (North America), 2010-2017
                     2010                                    2011                             2012                                      2013                     Future
                                                                                              1
                                                                                                             Kestrel                    500 EV City Electric
A      City        Current Whip Tango               ED          Whip LiFe NXR P-NUT Hako          Isetta     EV
                                                                                                                       iQ based E-up!
                                                                                                                                        Fiat   Lotus GreenTech                                 17
                                           i                                                                           Toyota VW
       Th!nk       ECM Wheego CC                                Wheego REVA Honda Scion           BMW        Motive                                  Auto
                                                    Smart
                                           Mitsubishi



B                                          2E electric                                       i10 Blueon Subcompact     A2 e-tron
                                                                                                                                                                                               5
                                                                                  MiniE
                                           Aptera                                            Hyundai GreenTech         Audi
                                                                                  BMW

                                                                                    ?                                                                              ?                ?
C      Prius       Leaf       Volt
                                          Focus BEV      Sedan                                     e46                                    200C Sedan MegaCity                     i sedan
                                                                                                                                                                                               12
       Toyota                 Chevrolet                                           e63                                     Golf blue-e-motion                     Model EV
                   Nissan                 Ford           Miles                                                                            Chrysler
                                                                                  Detroit Electric Detroit Electric       VW                         BMW         Mazda            Mitsubishi



D                                         e6
                                                                                                                                                                                               3
                                                                                                                                                                  918 SpyderC-X75
                                                                                                                                                                             EV
                                          BYD                                                                                                                     Porsche   Jaguar

                                                                                   ?                                       ?
Sports
        Roadster
        Tesla          Elise Electric     Circuit EV
                                                                                 9.3 Cabrio                              Luxury EV R4 Electric                   Open                          7
                       Lotus              Dodge                                                                          Infiniti                                Th!nk
                                                                                 True Electric                                     Roadster
                                                                                 Saab                                              Audi

                                                                                                                                                                   ?
                                           9-3 ePower SUV                                                                                                         Van
                                                                                  Minivan                                                  Patriot e-REV
                                                                                                                           Wrangler Unlimited
                                           Sport Estate Phoenix Motors
MPV                                        Saab                                   Chrysler                                 Jeep            Jeep                   Electric City
                                                                                                                                                                  Motors
                                                                                                                                                                                               8
                                            RAV4 EV         Denki Cube EV
                                            Toyota          Nissan

                                                                                                                                                                     ?
LCV                  Transit Connect
                                            NV200 Electric SUT                                                                                                                                 5
       eMEGA         Electric                                                                                                                                        Truck
       EVI           Ford                   Nissan         Phoenix Motors                                                                                            Electric City Motors

        11                                  15                                   11                                      13                                      7                             57
                                                                                                                                                                         Source: Frost & Sullivan


                                                                                                                                                                                                    15
North American EV Low Speed and Medium Speed Vehicles Roll Out
Plan : About 34 models planned to be launched by 2015
      Electric Vehicle Market: Planned Electric Vehicle Product Offerings (North America), 2010-2017
                                                2010 - 15                                                                                                      Future (-2017)

                                                                                                                                                                          ?
                                                             Summit SM-4                         LT        XT safari
       e2          e4          e6            Summit SM-2                     XTo       Classic                           2Five 4Seat       2Five 2Seat                 Anvil HEV    Peapod
                                                             Columbia Parcar
       GEM         GEM         GEM           Columbia Parcar                 BB Bugies BB Bugies BB Bugies BB Bugies     E-Z-Go            E-Z-Go          Crossline   Tomberlin    Chrysler
                                                                                                                                                           Columbia                 GEM
                                                                                                                                                           Parcar
LSV
PC                                                                                                                                                                                              22

       E-merge 2 E-merge 4 E-merge       E-merge       Anvil                  Villager 2+2 Vilager 2+2 LX
                                                                 Villager 2
       Tomberlin Tomberlin Encompass     Classic       Tomberlin ClubCar      ClubCar      ClubCar
                           Tomberlin     Tomberlin




LSV   eS     eL        eL XD      Summit SUV-S       Summit SUV-L    Mega Cargo Bed Mega Drop Side Mega Van      Carryall 2   Carryall 6    Vanish E-UTV    Via Bomba Via Van      Via Fiesta
      GEM    GEM       GEM        Columbia Parcar    Columbia Parcar Columbia Parcar Columbia Parcar Columbia Parcar
                                                                                                                 Clubcar      Clubcar       Tomberlin       Via EV    Via EV       Via EV       14
LC


                       EVNoble         eroadster     NMG                                                                                                    NMG2        Mycar
MSV     Noble
                       RevolutionUSA   Noram Concept Myers Motor
                                                                                                                                                                                  Land Glider
                                                                                                                                                            Myers Motor GreenTech Infiniti
                                                                                                                                                                                                  7
        Mik Go Green




        34                                                                                                                                                 9                                      43




                                                                                                                                                                       Source: Frost & Sullivan


                                                                                                                                                                                                  16
Roadmap of Charging Station Infrastructure for EVs: Inductive and DC
charging are the next technologies for vehicle charging
                         EV Charging Infrastructure Market: Technology Roadmap (Global), 2007-2017

                     Adaptive On-board/In-Plug Charging
Mode of                                     Fast Charging (Level 2) – mostly off-board
Charging                                                               DC - DC Charging (Level 3)
                                                                                          Contactless/Inductive Charging
                     Bollard/Ground Fixed
Type of                            Wall Mounted
Charging                                                   Pole Mounted
Station
                                                                              Dedicated charging station with lounge

                     Socket Type
Charging                                                                 Retractable Arm
Mechanism                                                                                  Automatic/Inductive Charging
                                                                                                                   On-the-
                                                                                                                   Move
                     All weather proof body with connectors and cord
                                                              Integrated safety control
Safety
                                                                                Emergency handling
                                                                                     Roadside Restraint System




                                                                                                                                  Source: Frost & Sullivan
                     Transition between modes
System
Integration and                                                         Solar panels for energy generation
Extended                                                         Vehicle diagnosis and data collection
Functionality
                                                                                                    two-way communication

                  2007                             2010                    2013                  2015               2017

  M616-18                                                                                                                    17
Consumer Perceptions About Electric Vehicles




                                               18
Method Details: Sample

       Screening
       Sample includes 69% of people that are 'very interested', 'interested' and 'unsure' in terms of considering buying an electric
       vehicle with the remaining 31% 'not interested at all' and 'not interested.’ Mix of owners of vehicles (since 2002) and those
       looking to purchase a new vehicle within the next 3 years. Consumers were selected based on the type of vehicles owned.

                                     Total Sample                         Regions
                                                                                                              Gender Segmentation
      Vehicle Segments                                Northeast   Midwest       South       West
      Small Car                              24%          27%      22%          22%          25%                                        Male
      Medium and Large Car                   18%          20%      21%          14%          16%
                                                                                                                                       Female
      Specialty Car                          6%           3%        5%              8%       7%
                                                                                                                                     44%
      Luxury Car                             17%          15%      11%          21%          21%
                                                                                                              56%
      SUV/CUV                                12%          14%      14%              9%       12%
      Luxury SUV/CUV                         6%           8%        5%              6%       5%
      Pickup Truck                           6%           5%        4%              8%       7%
      Minivan                                12%          8%       18%          13%          8%

      Age Segmentation                              Regions                                    Household Income

         9%        6%                                                                                               9%
                               66 or older          25%             27%                                                     $30,000 or less
                                                                              Northeast           25%
                         16%
                               56 to 65 years
22%                                                                           Midwest                                       $30,001-$60,000
                               46 to 55 years                                                                            27%
                               36 to 45 years                                                                               $60,001-$100,000
                                                                              South
                          21% 26 to 35 years
                                                    26%             22%       West                                          More than
                               18 to 25 years                                                                               $100,000
       26%                                                                                              39%


                                                                                                                                          19
Analysis Methodology: Market Size Using Driving and
Performance Characteristics Data From the Study

 Considering consumer’s interest in purchasing an electric vehicle, dwelling unit they live in, their current driving
 characteristics, and performance expectations of EVs, it is possible to apply analysis from the consumer study to
 understand the potential EV market size. The key driving characteristics and performance criteria considered in the
 analysis are:


                                   1.    Driving range on full charge

                                   2.    Battery charging time

                                   3.    Top speed

                                   4.    Acceleration compared to current vehicle

                                   5.    Vehicle size and style

 It was found that of the 48% interested in purchasing an Electric Vehicle, 38.5% qualified the dwelling
 and performance criteria, resulting in total electric vehicle forecast of 2.3 Million vehicles.
     •Please note that the forecast for 2015 is based on only performance criteria. When cost criteria is applied the forecasted demand will
     reduce significantly.

Key Driving and Performance Criteria for the forecasted demand are:
  Driving range on full charge: 150 mi
  Battery charge time: 4 Hours (with Level II charger)
   Top Speed: 100 mph
  Acceleration: comparable to current vehicle (conventional IC engine vehicle)


                                                                                                                                               20
Similar to Awareness Results, Unaided Future Purchase Intentions
   Toward Alternative Fuel Vehicles is Highest for Hybrid Electric
   Vehicles
    Yet, roughly one-third of Americans are unsure or undecided regarding future purchase intentions of any alternative fuel
    vehicles.
                                                                         Note: During the screening process, American drivers were asked about their
                                                                          future purchase intentions toward alternative fuel vehicles. This question was
                                                                            posed prior to surveyed drivers being exposed to pictures, attributes, etc. of
                                                                     electric vehicles, thus, this question represents an “unaided” perspective of future
                                                                                                                                    purchase intentions.
    S13. How likely is it that you would consider the following types of vehicles for your next vehicle purchase?


         9%              11%                              8%              9%              10%              6%              6%
                                         21%                                                              13%             13%
         16%                                             16%             19%
                         21%                                                              23%
                                                                                                                                       Very Likely

                                         33%                                                              37%             37%          Likely
         35%                                             40%
                         33%                                             38%                                                           Unsure or
                                                                                          38%                                          Undecided
                                                                                                                                       Not Likely
                                         28%                                                              26%             26%
         24%                                                                                                                           Not at all
                         21%                             21%             20%                                                           Likely
                                                                                          17%
                                          9%
         16%             15%                             15%             15%                              18%             18%
                                          9%                                              12%

       Battery     Plug-in Hybrid      Hybrid          Fuel Cell        Bio-fuel     Flexible Fuel    CNG Vehicle     LPG Vehicle
       Electric       Vehicle          Electric         Vehicle         Vehicle         Vehicle
       Vehicle                         Vehicle

Base: Total Sample N=1769


                                                                                                                                                     21
                                                                                                                                                     21
Profile of “Early Adopters”

       Early Adopters are interested in the latest and greatest in addition to being concerned about the environment.
             Q1. & Q11. Please rate your level of agreement with the following statements …
             (Strongly Disagree; Disagree; Somewhat Agree; Agree; Strongly Agree)
          EARLY ADOPTERS                                               SKEPTICS                                                          BUDGET MINDED

                              Want to appear                                                 Traditional vehicles                                           Single-minded focus
                              technologically                                                with known reliability                                         on cost of ownership.
                              savvy/trendy. The                                              are the first priority.                                        Aware of vehicles &
                              environment is a                                               Do not accept the                                              impact on
                              concern. EVs                                                   environment                                                    environment, but
                              represent the future!                                          argument.                                                      costs are salient to
                                                                                                                                                            the decision making.


    Who are they…


 Profile (high values)                  Share
                                                              58%
                                                                                                                               55%
 Location       Suburban                 58%                                                                                           45%


 Age            36-45                    26%           28%                                   26%
                                                                                     24%             22%                                                             24%
                                                                                                             16%                              18%     19%
                                                                     14%                                                                                                                    12%
                                                                                                                                                                             10%
 Gender         Male                     55%                                  6%                                       6%                                     6%                    6%


 Segment        Luxury                   24%          Urban Suburban Rural   18-25   26-35   36-45   46-55   56-65   66 or >   Male   Fem ale Sm all MediumSpecialtyLuxury   SUV   Pickup Minivans
                                                                                                                                                     & Large Car


  30% of the sample

                                         Analyst notes: To highlight the differences between segments, each individual was classified as belonging to only one (index mean average). Same
Base : n=1,769, Early Adopter n=522      average Index were removed, has such the eliminated cases as result of previous factorial analysis.



                                                                                                                                                                                          22
Nearly All Americans Consider Information Regarding a Battery’s
Charge Important
  The most important feature related to batteries that an electric vehicle manufacturer can provide is a gauge, similar to a
  fuel gauge. Having this feature may decrease concerns about being stranded.
  Furthermore, Americans are likely to more easily transition to electric vehicles if charging stations are similar to current
  gasoline and diesel fuelling stations: easy/convenient access, compatibility, and visible display of charges.
  Considering that all the above features are seen to be important by the majority of Americans, vehicle makers should
  consider offering them as standard features on electric vehicles.
Q15. Since the driving distance in electric mode depends on the state of charge of your vehicle’s batteries, how important is it that
your vehicle has a device that provides you information about…

                             Not at all Important   Unimportant     Neither     Important     Very Important
                                                                                                                                 Standard
                                                                                                                               Deviation
        Battery charge gauge 1% 6%
                              1%                    31%                                       61%
                                                                                                                                   .70


  Compatibility of battery with
                                1% 7%
                                 1%                       40%                                       51%
     charging stations                                                                                                             .72

  Location of battery charging
   stations along your travel 1% 9%
                               1%                           42%                                      47%
            corridor                                                                                                               .75


     Charging rates at charge
                              1%
                               1%   12%                           49%                                      37%
     stations by day and time                                                                                                      .76




                                                                                                                                        23
Winning concept from ACBC BYO exercise – EV considering
  consumers

   Feature                                Winning concept                                Share
                                                                                                 Key take aways…
                                                                                                  One-third want midsize car
   Vehicle size and type                  Midsize car (+ $30,000)                        33.9%      (23% want compact)

   Vehicle acceleration                   Same as current vehicle (+ $2,000)             40.2%    US Consumers don’t want to
                                                                                                     give up acceleration
                                          50% lease, $150/mo for 5 yrs (no change in
   Battery & charging package
                                          price)                                         30.6%

   Battery charging time                  8 hours (no change in price)                   43.3%    100% battery ownership also
                                                                                                       appeals to 30%
   Travel distance on full charge         100 miles (+ $5,000)                           37.7%

   Heating & A/C                          Yes, heating and air conditioning (+ $1,000)   95.4%    100 miles driving distance is
                                                                                                        very appealing
   Luggage capacity                       12 cubic feet (no change in price)             53.7%
                                                                                                    For $1,000 heating & air
                                          Yes, internal combustion range extending                   conditioning are “must
   Range extender engine                                                                                     haves”
                                          engine (+ $3,500)                              59.5%

   Maximum speed                          75 mph (no change in price)                    55.3%    US drivers concerned about
                                                                                                    being stranded – strong
                                                                                                   desire for extended range
                                                                                                               ICE


                                                                                                    75 mph provides highly
                                                                                                     acceptable top speed

Base : Total EV Aided Considerers N=856


                                                                                                                               24
Overview of Frost & Sullivan EV
      Research Program




                                  25
Frost & Sullivan’s Electric Vehicles Global Research Program (2011)
Providing a 360° Overview of the Market
     Urbanization




                                                                             Technology
                       Global Urbanization Trends                                            Electronic Corner Module




                                                                             EV Related
                                                                                             Assessment of Hybrid Market
       Trends



                       Mega City Trends
                       PESTLE ANALYSIS                                                       Assessment of Fuel Cell Market
                       Effects on personal, Urban & rural mobility                           Analysis of Green Automotive Technologies
                       EV infrastructure                                                     Industrial opportunities in EV Segment
                       Development of public transport systems
   Legislations




                                                                           Consumer
                                                                            Voice of
                       Country / City specific legislation                                   EV Fleets (Drivers / Managers) – EU+NA+APAC
                                                                                             EV Consumers – EU+NA
                       EV Attractiveness / Ranking for key EU cities
                                                                                             Consumer acceptability towards new Business Models
                       Local Incentives for electric vehicle adoption
                                                                                             Tracking Analysis
                       Specifications



                       Market / Technology Trends & Roadmaps
                       Competitive Structure                                                 Electric Vehicles Forecasts By OEM – (Global)




                                                                             Database
   Batteries




                       Global Market Forecasts                                               Hybrid Electric Vehicle – (Global)
                       Pricing trends                                                        Battery Technology
                       Who supplies whom Database                                            Technical Specs of EV – (Global)
                       Technical specifications of competitors solutions                     Who Supplies Whom – (Forthcoming)
      Infrastructure




                       Charging Station Roadmap                                              360° Market Overview




                                                                             Electric - 2
                       Technical Specs by Type & Mode of charging                            Market Size and Forecast




                                                                              Wheeler
                       Evolution of Charging Stations                                        Infrastructure and Legislative Trends
                       Forecasts for installation by Cities                                  Technology Analysis
                       Pricing Analysis                                                      Business Model Assessment
                       Energy Infrastructure and Role of Utilities                           Cost of Ownership
                       ROI for charging station and Utility business                         Consumer Adoption Trends
                                                                            EV Commercial


                       Cash flows and ROI for integrators
                                                                            Vehicle Market


                       Business Model assessment for OEMs
  Business
   Models




                       Cost of Ownership Assessment                                          Hybrid & Electric Commercial Vehicle – Global
                       ROI for Charging Station Manufacturers                                Customer and Market Analysis of Fleets -Global
                       ROI for Utilities                                                     Light CVs
                       ROI for Battery Swapping Business                                     Medium and HCVs (Hybrids and Electric)
                       Analysis of Key Potential Industries



                                                                                                                                              26
Electric Vehicles Research Planned for 2011

                                            Planned Topic                                    Regional Scope Deliverable Type

1    360 Degree Analysis of the Eastern European Passenger Electric Vehicles Market            Russia CEE      Megatrend

2    Strategic Analysis of the Market for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in Brazil                 LATAM         Megatrend
     Strategic Analysis of Electric Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in
3                                                                                                 NA           ME Research
     North America
     Strategic Analysis of Electric Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in
4                                                                                                 EU           ME Research
     Europe
     Strategic Analysis of Electric Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in
5                                                                                                China         ME Research
     China
     Strategic Technology and Market Analysis of Electric Vehicle Charging Station
6                                                                                                 NA           Megatrend
     Infrastructure in North America

7    Executive Report on Global Electric Vehicle Forecasts and Trends                            Global        Megatrend

     Comparative Analysis of North American OEMs Electric Vehicles Launch Strategy and
8                                                                                                 NA           Megatrend
     Product and Price Positioning

9    Analysis of Make or Buy OEM Strategies around Electric Vehicle Components                   Global        ME Research

10   Analysis Electric Vehicle Platform Strategies of OEMs                                       Global        ME Research

11   2011 Global Electric Vehicles 360 Degree Perspective of the Market                           EU           ME Research

12   Strategic Analysis of Hybrid Electric Vehicles Market in Turkey                             Turkey        ME Research

13   Strategic Analysis of EV IT Infrastructure and Billing Systems                              EU NA         ME Research

14   Strategic Analysis of Global Market for Range Extenders                                     Global        ME Research

15   European Voice of Customer Study on Adoption and Interest in Electric Vehicles               EU           Megatrend


                                                                                                                           27
Electric Vehicles Research Published in 2010

                                                  Published Title                                   Research Code

 1   Global Electric Vehicles Lithium-ion Battery Second Life and Recycling Market Analysis           M5B6-18

     Electric Vehicles Unplugged 2010 New Business Models and Infrastructure Development Trends
 2                                                                                                    M67A-18
     Presentations from Frost & Sullivan’s Interactive 2 Day Workshop and Networking Event 2010

 3   Strategic Analysis of the Chinese Electric Vehicle Market                                        M65D-18

 4   Electric Vehicles: European Voice of the Consumer Study- Fleet Managers and Drivers              M48B-18

 5   Electric Vehicles: European Voice of the Customer Study- Private User Passenger Vehicle          M444-18

 6   360 Degree Perspective of the Global Electric Vehicle Market - 2010 Edition                      M5B7-18

 7   Strategic Dashboard of Global Electric Vehicle Specifications                                    M5BF-18

 8   Global Electric Vehicle Associations and Incentives Database                                     M546-18

 9   Global Electric Vehicles Market Forecast Database                                                M648-18

10   Strategic Analysis of the European EV Charging Station Infrastructure                            M616-18

11   Global Electric Vehicles Incentives Database Q4 2010 Update                                       9832-18
     Comparative Analysis of European OEMs Electric Vehicle Launch Strategy and Product and Price
12                                                                                                    M682-18
     Positioning
13   Strategic Analysis of European and North American Market for Electric Commercial Vehicles        M4DE-18

14   Strategic Analysis of APAC Market for Neighborhood Electric Vehicles                              P41D-18

15   Strategic Analysis of Battery Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in Korea              P4CA-18

16   Strategic Analysis of Electric Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in Korea       P475-18



                                                                                                                 28
Highlights of Frost & Sullivan’s 2010 Electric Vehicle Unplugged
 Event Held at House of Lords Terrace and the SMMT on 22nd and 23rd
 June 2010
The 2010 workshop Themes: New Business Models
                                                             Panel Debate at
and Infrastructure Development Trends.
                                                           the House of Lords
                                                            Terrace – Sharon
Event Website - http://gil-global.com/electricvehicle/     Hodgson MP, Lord
                                                                 Palmer
Parliamentarians, Heads of Electric Vehicle programs of
PSA, Ford and Modec, Financial Institutions, OEMs,
Supplier Infrastructure companies and Major Fleet                                Peugeot Ion and
Managers all joined together to provide unique insights                          Citroen C-Zero on
into the structure of new business models and their                                Display at the
implications to industry stakeholders.                                            House of Lords
                                                                                     Courtyard

A number of stunning electric cars and two-wheelers
                                                          The Tesla Roadster
were on display, including the Tesla Roadster, Peugoet     on Display at the
Ion, Citroen C-Zero, Mistsubishi iMiev, Zero X, Zero DS     SMMT on Day 2
and the Vectrix.

116 Attendees from 79 organisations across industries
including automotive, energy and infrastructure
                                                                                Participants Busy
      Including 26 Lords and Members of Parliament                              Networking at the
                                                                                 SMMT on Day 2
      And at least 70 senior executives


                                                                                                     29
2011 Urban Mobility and Electric Vehicle Workshop Agenda to be Held
on 15th and 16th June ’11 in House of Parliament, London

                            Day 1 at the Palace of     Day 2 (venue to be decided) will
                            Westminster will           be a full day interactive
                            compromise a 2 hour        workshop, providing a unique
                            debate and networking      platform to discuss and
                            opportunity on Urban       evaluate Growth
                            Mobility                   Opportunities for e-
                                                       Infrastructure Platforms and
                                                       Business Models for Next
 • Debate will be opened by a distinguished UK         Generation Smart Mobility
   Political Figure
                                                       • Presentations from OEMs, Technology Platform
 • Panel will be a unique mix of Parliamentarians,       providers, Energy Companies, Government
   Industry and Academic experts                         representatives, and other industry stakeholders
 • Event will be attended by 20-40 MPs                 • Separate tracks in the afternoon – one focussed on
                                                         e-Mobility and second on IT Infrastructure for urban
 • Includes a networking opportunity before and
                                                         mobility
   after the debate
                                                       • Exhibition opportunities before workshop and during
 • Exhibition of Electric Vehicles and Technology by     intervals, Lunch break where vehicle demonstrations
   companies (subject to security approval)              will take place and Networking Drinks following the
 • VIP Networking lunch event for selected C-level       workshop
   Executives                                          • Workshop sessions throughout the day to review
 • Unique high tea networking opportunity with MPs       opportunities and challenges in the market
   and other VIPs                                      • IP Handouts covering global market potential,
                                                         infrastructure developments, business models and
 • Tour and Dinner for selected 15 guests at the         market opportunities
   House of commons (by invitation only)               ATTENDEES: Approximately 160 delegates
 ATTENDEES: Approximately 100 delegates (by
   invite only)



                                                                                                                30
Contacts




           Veerender Kaul
           Research Director, North America
           Automotive & Transportation
           P: 650 346 8937
           vkaul@frost.com




M35F-18                                       31

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Electric Vehicle Market Perspectives

  • 1. 360 Degree Perspective of the Electric Vehicle Market White Paper for: March, 2011
  • 2. Contents Future Urban Mobility and Society Trends and Its Implications to Personal Mobility Electric Vehicle Market Status and Outlook Consumer Perceptions About Electric Vehicles Overview of Frost & Sullivan EV Research Program 2
  • 3. Future Urban Mobility and Society Trends and Implications to Personal Mobility 3
  • 4. Cities Globally Will Become Networked, Integrated and Branded - Polarization of Vehicle Sizes Is Creating Demand for EVs in Mega Cities 1950s Urbanisation 2020s : Branded Cities Living areas expanding well outside of the peninsular loop in Creation of the historic centre and districts San Francisco 2000s Suburbanisation Source: Frost & Sullivan Urban sprawl, first highways and ring road • Most offices moved to the first belt suburbs except non cost-sensitive activities: city centres becoming shopping areas (small scale deliveries) for expensive goods and living areas for 2015s Network City “double income, no kids” households. cars needed to go to the working areas/malls outside first and second belt. • Industry offices moved out to the first belt area as also medium income families while manufacturing facilities and low-medium income families relocated in the second and third belt areas with logistics centres created on 2nd belt periphery. • ‘Green wave’ families living outside cities in outer suburban area. Hypermarkets and malls mostly created inside the third belt low cost area (large scales deliveries). Third suburban area and cities along the highways cars needed to go from outer suburban areas to join the intermodal public transport and created, ring road overblown by the urban sprawl working areas in third and second belt. 4
  • 5. Urbanisation Will Lead to Development of Mega Regions and Mega Corridors – 30 Mega cities and 15 mega regions by 2025. MEGA CITY MEGA REGIONS MEGA CORRIDORS Urban area with more than 10 Region within the perimeter The area alongside the million inhabitants and GDP formed by the combination of transport corridor connecting (PPP) more than 100 billion two or more closely located two or more major cities or USD. major cities or megacities, business districts or over 15 million population megacities. Urban area encompasses the areas of the suburbs and the EXAMPLE: Johannesburg and EXAMPLE: Hong Kong- outer business activity hubs. Pretoria region called “Jo- Shenhzen-Guangzhou in China Toria” (Population 120 Million) EXAMPLE: Greater Tokyo, Greater New York, Greater Mumbai 5
  • 6. Top 20 Megacities – Regional Transportation Policies Congestion , low emission zones, road user charging and special EV incentives in the emerging economies will have a major impact on electric mobility Delhi Mumbai Beijing Shanghai Moscow Seoul New York London Tokyo Bus Rapid 2011 2011 Transit Lanes Metro/Subway 2011 Congestion Planned Planned 2012 2012 Future Planned Future Charging Parking Cuts Road use 1 Week 1 week 1 Week Yes Future Charging/Ban Day Ban Day Ban Day Ban* EV/Hybrid Incentives Bicycle Lanes CAFÉ Euro 3 Euro 4 25% Emission 27.5mpg. Euro 4 Euro 4 Euro 4 Euro 4 Euro 4 by Euro 4 Euro 5 by reduction Standard 34.1 mpg 2012 2011 by 2015 by 2016 Not planned Existing currently * Voluntary no road usage incentive Source: Frost & Sullivan 6
  • 7. ‘Smart’ is the new ‘Green’: Over 40 Global Cities to be SMART Cities in 2020 - More than 50% of smart cities of 2025 will be from Europe and North America. China and India to see over 50 New “Sustainable” Cities Evolution of Megacities: Key Smart Cities (Global), 2009 - 2025 Amsterdam London Boulder Tianjin GIFT San Francisco Göteborg Stockholm Reykjavik Oslo Hammarby Sjöstad Songdo Montreal Clonburris Copenhagen Vancouver St David's Seattle Toronto Freiburg Portland Paris Dongtan Treasure Island Barcelona Changsha Destiny Coyote Springs Meixi Lake Khajuraho Arcosanti Babcock Ranch Pune Singapore City Bogota Kochi Waitakere, N.Z. Curitiba Cape Town Masdar Moreland, Australia Legend Cities built from scratch Existing eco cities Existing eco megacities Source: Frost & Sullivan 7
  • 8. Urban Planning : Snapshot of a SMART Mega City Plan in 2020 SMART Infrastructure: SMART Buildings: At Multimodal Transport least 50% of buildings Hubs Providing Excellent will be Green and SMART Energy: 20% Air, Rail, Road Intelligent built with BIPV. of Energy Produced in Connectivity to Other 20% of the buildings will the City will be Mega Cities. be Net Zero Buildings. Renewable (Wind, Solar etc) SMART Technology: Intelligent Communication Systems Connecting Home, Office, iPhone and Car on a SMART GRID: Single Wireless IT Infrastructure to Platform. Enable Real time monitoring of power flow and Provide Energy Surplus Back to Satellite Towns: Main City the Grid Centre will Merge with Several Satellite Towns to form ONE BIG MEGA CITY SMART Cars: At least 7% of Cars will be Electric Vehicles. Source: Google Images 8
  • 9. SMART CITY CASE STUDY: Amsterdam - Ordering over 200 Leafs from Nissan with key objective to reduce Particulate Matter in City SMART MOBILITY SMART LIVING SMART WORKING PLACE • 39% commute by bicycle • 400+ Km of dedicated cycle route • To familiarize electric bicycle taxis • 200 charging stations by 2012; • 10,000 EVs By 2015 • 1200 homes to feature smart meters • ITO tower is testing the use of smart • Encourage car sharing and energy management systems. meters and energy efficient appliances to • 14% reduction in energy use is cut energy consumption. expected of this smart meter project • Design aesthetics of building absorb • Cheaper parking slots at natural light and air from the environment P+R public transit stations to park cars and board trains SMART PUBLIC SPACE thereby keep artificial lighting and HVAC use to minimum. x • Yearly reduction of parking spaces and increase of tariffs inside the city. ***** SMART COMMUTE to WORK • 30 kmph speed limits on 80% • Utrechtsestraat – the popular narrow of roads inside the city - shopping street downtown is to feature makes bicycles faster by at • 25 MNCs have jointly signed to reduce energy efficient street lighting, least 50% on a A-B trip. home to work car miles by 10% by 2012. • Sustainable tram stops with solar • Incentive/free bicycles to employees powered displays and billboards • 154 shore power connections • Free & protected bike parks at offices to • Solar powered garbage bins with built to charge inland cargo vessels encourage cycle use. in compacters will be installed on this and river cruisers to be • Work from home if necessary street installed by 2012 9
  • 10. Electric Vehicle Market Status and Outlook 10
  • 11. About 30% of global vehicle sales will be green cars (Hybrids, EVs and Alternate fuels) by 2015 – More than 80% of the growth from Hybrids and Electric Vehicles Powertrain Sales Mix (World), 2017 25 85 – 90 Million Gasoline Diesel 2-3%% Hybrids Alternative Fuels 9-11% 20 4% Electric Vehicles 54 million 8% 4% 1% 17-19% 6-7% 14% 1% 1% 3% 8% 15 9% Millions 4% 10% 14-16% 17% 55% 10 86% 64% 53-55% 2% 1-2% 70% 3% 5 17% 16% 24% 3% 58% 13% 7% 1% 13% 35% 19% 1% 17% 64% 7% 38% 80% 6% 31% 12% 28% 50% 60% 50% 75% 0 W.Europe W. E uro pe NA NA Japan J a pa n China C hina Latinin La t India India Russia R us s ia South h S o ut Southa Ko re Middle M iddle America a A m e ric Africa a A f ric Korea East t Eas 2017 2009 Source: Frost & Sullivan Notes: • Hybrids include Micro (Start-stop), Mild and Full Hybrids • Alternative Fuels include LPG and CNG; flex-fuel vehicles included under ‘Diesel’ and ‘gasoline’ in Europe • Hybrids include diesel and gasoline and to avoid double counting they are not included in only “Diesel” or “gasoline” categories • Total for 2009 and 2016 includes only regions mentioned here. Excludes rest of the world • All sales nos. represent volumes for the regions mentioned in the chart only 11
  • 12. Global Electric Vehicle Demand Analysis – Potential of 2.2mil in 2017 Electric Vehicle Market: Sales Forecasts Scenario Analysis (World), 2009-2017 2020 Scenario's 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (% of Total Car Sales) Optimistic 4,500 23,100 123,800 289,500 665,000 1060,400 1,714,500 2,220,300 3,202,000 10-12% Scenario F&S Scenario 4,500 16,500 72,000 193,000 453,000 792,000 1,287,500 1,736,000 2,203,000 5-7% Conservative 4,500 13,500 35,600 82,500 150,300 195,100 300,500 450,000 670,000 3-4% Scenario Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan 12
  • 13. EV Breakdown By Region - CEVs to Account for 60% of global EV sales in 2017 EV Breakdown By Region – Sales Estimates (World), 2017 2.2 Million 1% 1% 2% 3% 2% 3% 22% Unit Shipments 28% 35% 6% 8% 11% 4,500 69% 2% 10% 60% 22% 1% 83% 4% 49% 5% 20% 7% 11% 7% 64% 63% 2009 2017 Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009 Source: Frost & Sullivan • Japan and China are the key markets for APAC=> likely 80% market share. China expects major share from the local OEMs and potential for strong growth in India. • eREV and PHEVs likely to account major share in the North American market driven by the virtue of demographics and customer driving characteristics => GM & Chrysler OEMs for eREVs. On the other hand, CEVs suit the demographics for the Europe. 13
  • 14. Over 62 OEMs expected to compete in the global EV market with over 124 models by 2015 Global EV Market: EV Sales Breakdown by Vehicle Segments, 2017 10.0% A - Basic B - Small C - Lower Medium D - Upper Medium Total Market Size (Sales Units) 2.2 Mn MPV Quadra-cycle Total Number of EV OEMS >62 F - Luxury G - Sports 23.9% SUV Unclassified 43.9% Total Number of EV Models >124 Van 7.6% 2.8% 4.2% 0.7% 2.5% 4.1% (94%) (6%) TRADITIONAL OEMS – (Sales Unit) NON – TRADITIONAL – (Sales Unit) 15,000 THINK City ZENN Heuiiez WILL iMEV BMW Mini Nissan Leaf GM Volt 14,800 Pininfarina -Blue Toyota IQ 70,000 BYD F6DM CODA OPTIMAL ENERGY Subaru - R1e/G4e VW UP Volvo C30 Tata Indica Smart ZAP 2017 2017 14
  • 15. North American Main Category of Electric Vehicles Electric Vehicle Market: Planned Electric Vehicle Product Offerings (North America), 2010-2017 2010 2011 2012 2013 Future 1 Kestrel 500 EV City Electric A City Current Whip Tango ED Whip LiFe NXR P-NUT Hako Isetta EV iQ based E-up! Fiat Lotus GreenTech 17 i Toyota VW Th!nk ECM Wheego CC Wheego REVA Honda Scion BMW Motive Auto Smart Mitsubishi B 2E electric i10 Blueon Subcompact A2 e-tron 5 MiniE Aptera Hyundai GreenTech Audi BMW ? ? ? C Prius Leaf Volt Focus BEV Sedan e46 200C Sedan MegaCity i sedan 12 Toyota Chevrolet e63 Golf blue-e-motion Model EV Nissan Ford Miles Chrysler Detroit Electric Detroit Electric VW BMW Mazda Mitsubishi D e6 3 918 SpyderC-X75 EV BYD Porsche Jaguar ? ? Sports Roadster Tesla Elise Electric Circuit EV 9.3 Cabrio Luxury EV R4 Electric Open 7 Lotus Dodge Infiniti Th!nk True Electric Roadster Saab Audi ? 9-3 ePower SUV Van Minivan Patriot e-REV Wrangler Unlimited Sport Estate Phoenix Motors MPV Saab Chrysler Jeep Jeep Electric City Motors 8 RAV4 EV Denki Cube EV Toyota Nissan ? LCV Transit Connect NV200 Electric SUT 5 eMEGA Electric Truck EVI Ford Nissan Phoenix Motors Electric City Motors 11 15 11 13 7 57 Source: Frost & Sullivan 15
  • 16. North American EV Low Speed and Medium Speed Vehicles Roll Out Plan : About 34 models planned to be launched by 2015 Electric Vehicle Market: Planned Electric Vehicle Product Offerings (North America), 2010-2017 2010 - 15 Future (-2017) ? Summit SM-4 LT XT safari e2 e4 e6 Summit SM-2 XTo Classic 2Five 4Seat 2Five 2Seat Anvil HEV Peapod Columbia Parcar GEM GEM GEM Columbia Parcar BB Bugies BB Bugies BB Bugies BB Bugies E-Z-Go E-Z-Go Crossline Tomberlin Chrysler Columbia GEM Parcar LSV PC 22 E-merge 2 E-merge 4 E-merge E-merge Anvil Villager 2+2 Vilager 2+2 LX Villager 2 Tomberlin Tomberlin Encompass Classic Tomberlin ClubCar ClubCar ClubCar Tomberlin Tomberlin LSV eS eL eL XD Summit SUV-S Summit SUV-L Mega Cargo Bed Mega Drop Side Mega Van Carryall 2 Carryall 6 Vanish E-UTV Via Bomba Via Van Via Fiesta GEM GEM GEM Columbia Parcar Columbia Parcar Columbia Parcar Columbia Parcar Columbia Parcar Clubcar Clubcar Tomberlin Via EV Via EV Via EV 14 LC EVNoble eroadster NMG NMG2 Mycar MSV Noble RevolutionUSA Noram Concept Myers Motor Land Glider Myers Motor GreenTech Infiniti 7 Mik Go Green 34 9 43 Source: Frost & Sullivan 16
  • 17. Roadmap of Charging Station Infrastructure for EVs: Inductive and DC charging are the next technologies for vehicle charging EV Charging Infrastructure Market: Technology Roadmap (Global), 2007-2017 Adaptive On-board/In-Plug Charging Mode of Fast Charging (Level 2) – mostly off-board Charging DC - DC Charging (Level 3) Contactless/Inductive Charging Bollard/Ground Fixed Type of Wall Mounted Charging Pole Mounted Station Dedicated charging station with lounge Socket Type Charging Retractable Arm Mechanism Automatic/Inductive Charging On-the- Move All weather proof body with connectors and cord Integrated safety control Safety Emergency handling Roadside Restraint System Source: Frost & Sullivan Transition between modes System Integration and Solar panels for energy generation Extended Vehicle diagnosis and data collection Functionality two-way communication 2007 2010 2013 2015 2017 M616-18 17
  • 18. Consumer Perceptions About Electric Vehicles 18
  • 19. Method Details: Sample Screening Sample includes 69% of people that are 'very interested', 'interested' and 'unsure' in terms of considering buying an electric vehicle with the remaining 31% 'not interested at all' and 'not interested.’ Mix of owners of vehicles (since 2002) and those looking to purchase a new vehicle within the next 3 years. Consumers were selected based on the type of vehicles owned. Total Sample Regions Gender Segmentation Vehicle Segments Northeast Midwest South West Small Car 24% 27% 22% 22% 25% Male Medium and Large Car 18% 20% 21% 14% 16% Female Specialty Car 6% 3% 5% 8% 7% 44% Luxury Car 17% 15% 11% 21% 21% 56% SUV/CUV 12% 14% 14% 9% 12% Luxury SUV/CUV 6% 8% 5% 6% 5% Pickup Truck 6% 5% 4% 8% 7% Minivan 12% 8% 18% 13% 8% Age Segmentation Regions Household Income 9% 6% 9% 66 or older 25% 27% $30,000 or less Northeast 25% 16% 56 to 65 years 22% Midwest $30,001-$60,000 46 to 55 years 27% 36 to 45 years $60,001-$100,000 South 21% 26 to 35 years 26% 22% West More than 18 to 25 years $100,000 26% 39% 19
  • 20. Analysis Methodology: Market Size Using Driving and Performance Characteristics Data From the Study Considering consumer’s interest in purchasing an electric vehicle, dwelling unit they live in, their current driving characteristics, and performance expectations of EVs, it is possible to apply analysis from the consumer study to understand the potential EV market size. The key driving characteristics and performance criteria considered in the analysis are: 1. Driving range on full charge 2. Battery charging time 3. Top speed 4. Acceleration compared to current vehicle 5. Vehicle size and style It was found that of the 48% interested in purchasing an Electric Vehicle, 38.5% qualified the dwelling and performance criteria, resulting in total electric vehicle forecast of 2.3 Million vehicles. •Please note that the forecast for 2015 is based on only performance criteria. When cost criteria is applied the forecasted demand will reduce significantly. Key Driving and Performance Criteria for the forecasted demand are: Driving range on full charge: 150 mi Battery charge time: 4 Hours (with Level II charger) Top Speed: 100 mph Acceleration: comparable to current vehicle (conventional IC engine vehicle) 20
  • 21. Similar to Awareness Results, Unaided Future Purchase Intentions Toward Alternative Fuel Vehicles is Highest for Hybrid Electric Vehicles Yet, roughly one-third of Americans are unsure or undecided regarding future purchase intentions of any alternative fuel vehicles. Note: During the screening process, American drivers were asked about their future purchase intentions toward alternative fuel vehicles. This question was posed prior to surveyed drivers being exposed to pictures, attributes, etc. of electric vehicles, thus, this question represents an “unaided” perspective of future purchase intentions. S13. How likely is it that you would consider the following types of vehicles for your next vehicle purchase? 9% 11% 8% 9% 10% 6% 6% 21% 13% 13% 16% 16% 19% 21% 23% Very Likely 33% 37% 37% Likely 35% 40% 33% 38% Unsure or 38% Undecided Not Likely 28% 26% 26% 24% Not at all 21% 21% 20% Likely 17% 9% 16% 15% 15% 15% 18% 18% 9% 12% Battery Plug-in Hybrid Hybrid Fuel Cell Bio-fuel Flexible Fuel CNG Vehicle LPG Vehicle Electric Vehicle Electric Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Base: Total Sample N=1769 21 21
  • 22. Profile of “Early Adopters” Early Adopters are interested in the latest and greatest in addition to being concerned about the environment. Q1. & Q11. Please rate your level of agreement with the following statements … (Strongly Disagree; Disagree; Somewhat Agree; Agree; Strongly Agree) EARLY ADOPTERS SKEPTICS BUDGET MINDED Want to appear Traditional vehicles Single-minded focus technologically with known reliability on cost of ownership. savvy/trendy. The are the first priority. Aware of vehicles & environment is a Do not accept the impact on concern. EVs environment environment, but represent the future! argument. costs are salient to the decision making. Who are they… Profile (high values) Share 58% 55% Location Suburban 58% 45% Age 36-45 26% 28% 26% 24% 22% 24% 16% 18% 19% 14% 12% 10% Gender Male 55% 6% 6% 6% 6% Segment Luxury 24% Urban Suburban Rural 18-25 26-35 36-45 46-55 56-65 66 or > Male Fem ale Sm all MediumSpecialtyLuxury SUV Pickup Minivans & Large Car 30% of the sample Analyst notes: To highlight the differences between segments, each individual was classified as belonging to only one (index mean average). Same Base : n=1,769, Early Adopter n=522 average Index were removed, has such the eliminated cases as result of previous factorial analysis. 22
  • 23. Nearly All Americans Consider Information Regarding a Battery’s Charge Important The most important feature related to batteries that an electric vehicle manufacturer can provide is a gauge, similar to a fuel gauge. Having this feature may decrease concerns about being stranded. Furthermore, Americans are likely to more easily transition to electric vehicles if charging stations are similar to current gasoline and diesel fuelling stations: easy/convenient access, compatibility, and visible display of charges. Considering that all the above features are seen to be important by the majority of Americans, vehicle makers should consider offering them as standard features on electric vehicles. Q15. Since the driving distance in electric mode depends on the state of charge of your vehicle’s batteries, how important is it that your vehicle has a device that provides you information about… Not at all Important Unimportant Neither Important Very Important Standard Deviation Battery charge gauge 1% 6% 1% 31% 61% .70 Compatibility of battery with 1% 7% 1% 40% 51% charging stations .72 Location of battery charging stations along your travel 1% 9% 1% 42% 47% corridor .75 Charging rates at charge 1% 1% 12% 49% 37% stations by day and time .76 23
  • 24. Winning concept from ACBC BYO exercise – EV considering consumers Feature Winning concept Share Key take aways… One-third want midsize car Vehicle size and type Midsize car (+ $30,000) 33.9% (23% want compact) Vehicle acceleration Same as current vehicle (+ $2,000) 40.2% US Consumers don’t want to give up acceleration 50% lease, $150/mo for 5 yrs (no change in Battery & charging package price) 30.6% Battery charging time 8 hours (no change in price) 43.3% 100% battery ownership also appeals to 30% Travel distance on full charge 100 miles (+ $5,000) 37.7% Heating & A/C Yes, heating and air conditioning (+ $1,000) 95.4% 100 miles driving distance is very appealing Luggage capacity 12 cubic feet (no change in price) 53.7% For $1,000 heating & air Yes, internal combustion range extending conditioning are “must Range extender engine haves” engine (+ $3,500) 59.5% Maximum speed 75 mph (no change in price) 55.3% US drivers concerned about being stranded – strong desire for extended range ICE 75 mph provides highly acceptable top speed Base : Total EV Aided Considerers N=856 24
  • 25. Overview of Frost & Sullivan EV Research Program 25
  • 26. Frost & Sullivan’s Electric Vehicles Global Research Program (2011) Providing a 360° Overview of the Market Urbanization Technology Global Urbanization Trends Electronic Corner Module EV Related Assessment of Hybrid Market Trends Mega City Trends PESTLE ANALYSIS Assessment of Fuel Cell Market Effects on personal, Urban & rural mobility Analysis of Green Automotive Technologies EV infrastructure Industrial opportunities in EV Segment Development of public transport systems Legislations Consumer Voice of Country / City specific legislation EV Fleets (Drivers / Managers) – EU+NA+APAC EV Consumers – EU+NA EV Attractiveness / Ranking for key EU cities Consumer acceptability towards new Business Models Local Incentives for electric vehicle adoption Tracking Analysis Specifications Market / Technology Trends & Roadmaps Competitive Structure Electric Vehicles Forecasts By OEM – (Global) Database Batteries Global Market Forecasts Hybrid Electric Vehicle – (Global) Pricing trends Battery Technology Who supplies whom Database Technical Specs of EV – (Global) Technical specifications of competitors solutions Who Supplies Whom – (Forthcoming) Infrastructure Charging Station Roadmap 360° Market Overview Electric - 2 Technical Specs by Type & Mode of charging Market Size and Forecast Wheeler Evolution of Charging Stations Infrastructure and Legislative Trends Forecasts for installation by Cities Technology Analysis Pricing Analysis Business Model Assessment Energy Infrastructure and Role of Utilities Cost of Ownership ROI for charging station and Utility business Consumer Adoption Trends EV Commercial Cash flows and ROI for integrators Vehicle Market Business Model assessment for OEMs Business Models Cost of Ownership Assessment Hybrid & Electric Commercial Vehicle – Global ROI for Charging Station Manufacturers Customer and Market Analysis of Fleets -Global ROI for Utilities Light CVs ROI for Battery Swapping Business Medium and HCVs (Hybrids and Electric) Analysis of Key Potential Industries 26
  • 27. Electric Vehicles Research Planned for 2011 Planned Topic Regional Scope Deliverable Type 1 360 Degree Analysis of the Eastern European Passenger Electric Vehicles Market Russia CEE Megatrend 2 Strategic Analysis of the Market for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in Brazil LATAM Megatrend Strategic Analysis of Electric Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in 3 NA ME Research North America Strategic Analysis of Electric Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in 4 EU ME Research Europe Strategic Analysis of Electric Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in 5 China ME Research China Strategic Technology and Market Analysis of Electric Vehicle Charging Station 6 NA Megatrend Infrastructure in North America 7 Executive Report on Global Electric Vehicle Forecasts and Trends Global Megatrend Comparative Analysis of North American OEMs Electric Vehicles Launch Strategy and 8 NA Megatrend Product and Price Positioning 9 Analysis of Make or Buy OEM Strategies around Electric Vehicle Components Global ME Research 10 Analysis Electric Vehicle Platform Strategies of OEMs Global ME Research 11 2011 Global Electric Vehicles 360 Degree Perspective of the Market EU ME Research 12 Strategic Analysis of Hybrid Electric Vehicles Market in Turkey Turkey ME Research 13 Strategic Analysis of EV IT Infrastructure and Billing Systems EU NA ME Research 14 Strategic Analysis of Global Market for Range Extenders Global ME Research 15 European Voice of Customer Study on Adoption and Interest in Electric Vehicles EU Megatrend 27
  • 28. Electric Vehicles Research Published in 2010 Published Title Research Code 1 Global Electric Vehicles Lithium-ion Battery Second Life and Recycling Market Analysis M5B6-18 Electric Vehicles Unplugged 2010 New Business Models and Infrastructure Development Trends 2 M67A-18 Presentations from Frost & Sullivan’s Interactive 2 Day Workshop and Networking Event 2010 3 Strategic Analysis of the Chinese Electric Vehicle Market M65D-18 4 Electric Vehicles: European Voice of the Consumer Study- Fleet Managers and Drivers M48B-18 5 Electric Vehicles: European Voice of the Customer Study- Private User Passenger Vehicle M444-18 6 360 Degree Perspective of the Global Electric Vehicle Market - 2010 Edition M5B7-18 7 Strategic Dashboard of Global Electric Vehicle Specifications M5BF-18 8 Global Electric Vehicle Associations and Incentives Database M546-18 9 Global Electric Vehicles Market Forecast Database M648-18 10 Strategic Analysis of the European EV Charging Station Infrastructure M616-18 11 Global Electric Vehicles Incentives Database Q4 2010 Update 9832-18 Comparative Analysis of European OEMs Electric Vehicle Launch Strategy and Product and Price 12 M682-18 Positioning 13 Strategic Analysis of European and North American Market for Electric Commercial Vehicles M4DE-18 14 Strategic Analysis of APAC Market for Neighborhood Electric Vehicles P41D-18 15 Strategic Analysis of Battery Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in Korea P4CA-18 16 Strategic Analysis of Electric Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in Korea P475-18 28
  • 29. Highlights of Frost & Sullivan’s 2010 Electric Vehicle Unplugged Event Held at House of Lords Terrace and the SMMT on 22nd and 23rd June 2010 The 2010 workshop Themes: New Business Models Panel Debate at and Infrastructure Development Trends. the House of Lords Terrace – Sharon Event Website - http://gil-global.com/electricvehicle/ Hodgson MP, Lord Palmer Parliamentarians, Heads of Electric Vehicle programs of PSA, Ford and Modec, Financial Institutions, OEMs, Supplier Infrastructure companies and Major Fleet Peugeot Ion and Managers all joined together to provide unique insights Citroen C-Zero on into the structure of new business models and their Display at the implications to industry stakeholders. House of Lords Courtyard A number of stunning electric cars and two-wheelers The Tesla Roadster were on display, including the Tesla Roadster, Peugoet on Display at the Ion, Citroen C-Zero, Mistsubishi iMiev, Zero X, Zero DS SMMT on Day 2 and the Vectrix. 116 Attendees from 79 organisations across industries including automotive, energy and infrastructure Participants Busy Including 26 Lords and Members of Parliament Networking at the SMMT on Day 2 And at least 70 senior executives 29
  • 30. 2011 Urban Mobility and Electric Vehicle Workshop Agenda to be Held on 15th and 16th June ’11 in House of Parliament, London Day 1 at the Palace of Day 2 (venue to be decided) will Westminster will be a full day interactive compromise a 2 hour workshop, providing a unique debate and networking platform to discuss and opportunity on Urban evaluate Growth Mobility Opportunities for e- Infrastructure Platforms and Business Models for Next • Debate will be opened by a distinguished UK Generation Smart Mobility Political Figure • Presentations from OEMs, Technology Platform • Panel will be a unique mix of Parliamentarians, providers, Energy Companies, Government Industry and Academic experts representatives, and other industry stakeholders • Event will be attended by 20-40 MPs • Separate tracks in the afternoon – one focussed on e-Mobility and second on IT Infrastructure for urban • Includes a networking opportunity before and mobility after the debate • Exhibition opportunities before workshop and during • Exhibition of Electric Vehicles and Technology by intervals, Lunch break where vehicle demonstrations companies (subject to security approval) will take place and Networking Drinks following the • VIP Networking lunch event for selected C-level workshop Executives • Workshop sessions throughout the day to review • Unique high tea networking opportunity with MPs opportunities and challenges in the market and other VIPs • IP Handouts covering global market potential, infrastructure developments, business models and • Tour and Dinner for selected 15 guests at the market opportunities House of commons (by invitation only) ATTENDEES: Approximately 160 delegates ATTENDEES: Approximately 100 delegates (by invite only) 30
  • 31. Contacts Veerender Kaul Research Director, North America Automotive & Transportation P: 650 346 8937 vkaul@frost.com M35F-18 31