High Yield Investments and best short term investments for 2014

February 24, 2014
High Return Investments
Market Strategies Newsletter Sample Issue

For Free High Return Investments Trade Alerts

CLICK HERE
Princeton Research Market Strategies Newsletter

Page 1

Covering High Return Balanced Investing Strategies To
Make Money In Up Or Down Markets
A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)
Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz

Market Strategies High Return Investments
$10,000 Trading Account
Traders Comments
There are three open positions:
GRPN March 11 Calls
LUV March 22 Calls
PM March 80 Calls
Funds in Use $ 1,390

In 2013 YTD gains were $28,479
Over 284% Returns
A $10,000 Portfolio would be worth $38,479
The last 3 years our gains have gotten progressively greater year over year.

284% Returns for $28,400 Profits In 2013
171% Returns for $17,100 Profits In 2012
77% Returns for $7,700 Profits In 2011 (only 33 weeks)
NOTE: This is a Sample Issue Only!
TO GET OUR TRADE ALERTS BY TEXT MESSAGE AND
THE COMPLETE VIP MEMBERS ONLY
MARKET STRATEGIES NEWSLETTER ISSUES
Visit:

PrincetonResearch.com/investment-strategies.htm
To Lock In Your SPECIAL Low Subscription Rate

Page2

This week we had a gain of $450 lowering our YTD loss to $1,579.
We continue to test the highs of 12/31/13 of 1848.36 and 1,848.38 on January 15 th of this year.
As I mentioned last week, the move off 1,742 to current levels can have a normal and expectable
pullback, but as yet we continue to be supported well above the 1,800 breakout and support
near 1,820.
The economic numbers have been lackluster at best with some downright disappointing.
The market has shrugged off the bad ones including several earnings misses. While we got
hurt on GRPN (traded up to $12.10 +$2.00 after reporting), the conference call gave disappointing
guidance, I sent out a text to ignore the 50% Down rule since we would only receive $40.00 in
proceeds. I don't like to make these type of exceptions but in a strong market these gaps down
(30% lower open) we generally see some bounce. I will text the sell order when appropriate.
The metals markets are showing some very impressive action. A look at the GLD and the
SLV ETFs on a weekly basis show good bottoming formations. The SLV has a test of the
June/July lows without making a new low. I am looking for a place to use the AGQ ( 3XSilver ETF ),
which gapped up on the weekly chart. We have been quite successful trading silver related
options in the past. Remember that if things are getting better for the economy we will have some
healthy inflation. We have a position in the $100,000 account in HL as well as the GSG
(Goldman commodity index). Since we cannot trade either in the $10,000 Account I will look for
the acceleration of a move to participate.
… CAM

CLICK HERE
$10,000 Trading Account
Trade Table
DATE
02/20

TRADES

This Information
Is For Members Only

PRICE COST PROCEEDS RESULTS
1.24
496

For Free Trade Alerts
CLICK HERE
02/19
02/18
02/18
02/18
02/14
02/14

1.54
0.35
0.68
1.61
1.16
1.09

924

270 Gain

644

180 Gain

350
544
464
654

Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
Subscriber Members Only

Page3

TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
VIP Subscribers Members Area.
Options Trading Strategies Notes: In Texting we have a limited amount of words. In the interest of
brevity: we use 8=August , 9=September . The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific.
We may trade weekly options and they are noted: SPY 1/25 147 for SPY Jan 25th 147 calls or puts.

Visit:

Market Strategies
High Return Investments
MARKET LABORATORY
WEEKLY CHANGES FOR MARKET INDICATORS
Dow
16,103.30
-51.09
-0.32%

Nasdaq
4263.41
+19.38
+0.46%

S&P 500
1836.25
-2.38
-0.13%

Transportation
7308.60
+1.91
+0.03%

Russell 2000
1164.63
+15.42
+1.34%

Nasdaq 100
3662.60
-1.27
-0.03%

Gold (spot)
1323.90
+4.90
+0.4%

Silver (Dec )
2178.2
+36.1
+1.7%

Crude
102.20
+1.90
+1.9%

Heating Oil
303.89
+2.23
+0.7%

Natural Gas
6.135
+.921
+17.7%

Put/Call Ratios
S&P 100
96/100’s
-7/100’s

Put/Call Ratios
CBOE Equity
57/100’s
-3/100’s

Bonds
132-03 +06
3.70% Unch

Unleaded
Gas
3.0030
+0.0308
+1.1%
10 Yr Note
125-194 -01
2.73%-0.02%

Barron’s
Confidence
72.3%
+0.04%

S&P100
807.33
-5.24
-0.64%

5 Yr Note
120-20 -007
1.53%+0.01%

Dollar
80.15
+0.12
+0.2%

DJ Utilities
523.47
+3.96
+0.76%

Bullish
42.2%

Bearish
22.8%

Neutral
35.0%

VIX
14.68
+1.11
+7.6%
CRB Inflation
Index
301.58
+8.34
+2.8%
AAII
Confidence


M1 Money
Supply
Page4

Copper
329.10
+2.65
+0.8%

M-2 Money
Supply

Index

+2.0%

-4.5%

+2.5%

+9.43%
February 10th

+6.35%
February 10th

M1...all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler's Checks, Demand Deposits
M2.. adds Savings and Money Market Accounts both compared with the previous year.

CLICK HERE
New Stock Recommendations
$100,000 Trading Portfolio
Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.
Stock

Purchase
Price

Purchase
Date

59.97

02/07
01/29
01/28
01/28
01/16
01/10
12/30
12/30
12/23
12/23
12/23
8/12
7/11
5/23
3/04
11/08/12

Price/Date Sold

Profit/(Loss)

02/19

12.52
15.37
10.40
11.79
15.37
10.06
7.85
0.78
16.22
32.64
4.31
4.08
6.56
12.10
4.10
538

This
Information
Is For
Members Only

Stop/Loss

For Free
Trade Alerts
CLICK HERE


2.64sco

Page5

636
0.22

10/9/12
10/22/12

.12 sco

Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.
Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies
Newsletter issues available in the Subscriber Members Area.
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF's that are the
inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the
DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double
when gold goes down.

Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Portfolio
Recommendations And Overall Comments
Last week we gained $900 bringing our total loss for the year to $ 4,777.
The SPXU’s ( a negative ETF ) were bought for balance.
For the full year 2013 we had realized gains of $ 53,556.
We have open position losses of about $ 5,506 most of which are held over from last year.
We also have not counted dividends received on stocks like Apple, Nordic American ( NAT )
and JP Morgan.
We have three long options positions:
GRPN March 11 Calls; LUV March 22 Calls; PM March 80 Calls
The Stock table has the following 20 positions:
AA(2), AAPL (2), ACI, BAC B Warrants, DSX, GRPN, GSG, HL,
INSM, KEG, NBG (2), OSIR, REPR, RPTP, SPXU, TEXQY, WLT
The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires
$5,000 unless specifically stated.

We are basing money management on a hypothetical $ 100,000 and are using
$ 2,780 in three options positions and
$ 83,580 in 20 stock positions
totaling $ 86,380 with
$ 13,640 in cash.
These figures are approximate.
We do not count commission costs and there may be errors.

Page6

Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from
our actual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price,
we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes results in
a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.

Previous Week’s Recommendations and
Rules for the Market Strategies
$100,000 Portfolio Trading Account
 All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless otherwise stated
 When the option has doubled sell half the position
 Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade
 The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask, whichever is
more realistic)
 The options will be followed until closed out.
 Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price
Option

Trades

Date

Calls
1.24

Date

Profit/(Loss)

02/20/14

Calls
0.35
Calls
0.68
Calls
1.09
Calls
1.16

This
Information
Is For
Members Only

Sold

02/18/14

For Free
Trade Alerts
CLICK HERE
02/18/14
02/14/14

1.54

02/19/14

$ 540

02/14/14

1.61

02/18/14

$ 360

Note: Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies
Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.

CLICK HERE


Page7

This Weeks' Market Strategies
Economic Numbers and Media Data
MONDAY

Magnum Hunter ( MHR ) reports earnings before the open
Expecting a loss of 20 cents vs a nickel profit.

TUESDAY

09:00 hrs Case-Shiller 20-city Index
Dec ( 13.6% s 13.7% )
09:00 hrs FHFA Housing Price Index
Dec ( NA vs 0.1% )
Consumer Confidence Feb ( 80.8 vs 80.7 )

WEDNESDAY

Lowe’s ( 0.31 vs 0.26 )
CHK ( .39 vs .26)
DLTR ( 1.06 vs 1.01)
07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Index 02/22 ( NA vs -4.1% )
10:00 hrs New Home Sales Jan ( 400K vs 414K )
10:30 hrs Crude Inventories 02/22 ( NA vs +0.973 Mln bbls )
BIDU ( 1.36 vs 1.28 )
JCP -0.85 vs -1.95
RIG ( 0.75 vs 0.91 )

THURSDAY

Best Buy BBY (1.01 vs 1.64)
Kohls KSS ( 1.55 vs 1.66 )
NuSkin NUS 1.97 vs 0.97
SHLD ( - 1.60 vs 1.12 )
08:30 hrs Initial Claims 02/22 ( 335K vs 336K )
Continuing Claims 02/15 ( 2975K vs 2981K
08:30 hrs Durable Goods Jan ( -1.1% vs -4.2% )
Durable Goods Ex-Transportation ( -0.3% vs -1.3% )
10:30 hrs Natural Gas Inventories 02/22 ( NA vs -250bcf )
DECK ( 3.78 vs 2.77 )
BAGL ( 0.35 vs 0.33 )

FRIDAY

08:30 hrs GDP – 2nd estimate 4th Qtr ( 2.6% vs 3.2% )
Implicit Price Deflator ( 1.3% vs Same )


Page8

09:45 hrs Chicago PMI Feb ( 56.0 vs 59.6 )
09:55 hrs Michigan Sentiment Feb Final ( 81.5 vs 81.2 )
10:00 hrs Pending Home Sales Jan ( 0.8% vs -8.7% )

Visit:

Market Strategies Economic Data
The housing market is under-performing. The annualized rate of 4.62 million units existing home
sales which declined 5.1% in January is now the lowest since July 2012 and well below the highs of
last summer and the 5.2 million unit years at the turn of the century. Existing Home Sales have now
been down five of the past six months. The main problem is lack of credit and new rules improperly
implemented during the past financial crisis requiring income tax returns and an appropriate amount
of income required to qualify. Sales were down sharply in the West where weather is not a factor.
This year is surprisingly off to a terrible start even with the huge amount of money in circulation that
seems untouchable by prospective home buyers.
Next week could be challenging with Home Price Data as well as sales of newly built homes plus
earnings from Home Depot Tuesday before the open and Lowes Wednesday before the open. That
means each day there will be negative news on the housing sector. Regardless of the poor current
fundamentals, last week the Homebuilding stocks held well. The XHB Homebuilder’s ETF looks
promising in the light of such deleterious numbers.

Market Strategies Trading Fundamentals
Equities finished the week with selling after flirting with all-time highs for the third time in a month.
The Dow was down 50 points and the S&P 500 was off 2.38. Nasdaq was ahead by 19 points
after having risen to its highest level since the year 2000 led by Under Armour ( UA: $ 112.68 )
up $ 30 since January 27th.
There were six winners out of the ten Dow Industrial Groups. Health Care rose most although
just a modest 1.25%. Utilities continued their torrid strength rising 0.68%, but up 5.2% in the
Month of February and up nine of the last ten days. Oil and Gas shares rose 0.44%;
Basic Materials 0.24%; Telecommunications 0.17% and Consumer Services 0.14%
rounding out the winners. There four losing groups all down small. Industrials fell 0.02%;
Consumer Goods 0.07%; Technology 0.21% and Financials 0.70%.

Page9

Compass Minerals International ( NYSE: CMP $ 85.80 ) sells salt that municipalities have
bought to spread on icy roads. They had a great winter as the stock is up 7% while the
S&P is relatively flat.
The table below shows the propensity for the market to rally into Spring.

Market Strategies Technical Information
Support Levels S&P 500
Resistance S&P 500

1818
1853

Support Levels DOW
Resistance DOW

16,080
16,440

Support Levels QQQ
Resistance QQQ

86.86
90.70

Support Levels NASDAQ
Resistance NASDAQ

4118
4297

Market Strategies Cycles
Xinergy ( XRG.TO ) appears to be a low cost opportunity with a big upside potential.
Current inventory levels are not sustainable to deliver required tons needed for current coal
generation in the US without having a major price spike as witnessed by past cycles.
Current production can’t be increased like in the past due to burdensome US environmental and
permitting policy that has caused many mines to be idled or shut for good. The projected price spike
is expected to have longer legs due to the lack of incremental production.

P a g e 10

Stockpiles fell 7.78 mm tons in Dec to 147.97 mm tons, 2.03 mm tons well below every estimate.
Consumption was up 5.55% YoY. Favorable weather and supply disruptions caused us to lower our
forecast for end of Feb stockpiles to 129.97 mm tons. The accelerating stockpile decline should push
utilities into the spot market for coal as inventories fall below targeted levels, though some expect the
wave of utility purchases will come this spring. Additional commentary on both inventories and
generation is below.
EIA Utility Inventories for December 2013
mm
Seq Chg YOY Chg
tons
Bituminous
72.96
(2.5%)
(15.6%)
Sub70.00
(7.5%)
(25.4%)
bituminous
Lignite
5.01
(4.6%)
3.5%
Total
147.97
(5.0%)
(20.1%)
Source: EIA

Seq Chg
(mmt)
(1.90)

YoY Chg
(mmt)
(13.47)

(5.64)

(23.84)

(0.24)
(7.78)

0.17
(37.14)

Stockpile Correction Accelerates: After a bigger than forecast drawdown in Dec, and more
aggressive declines forecasted for Jan and Feb, we are on pace to see stockpiles fall approx. 26 mm
tons over Dec – Feb, the second largest winter decline in the past 10-years and putting stockpiles to
approx. 130 mm tons at the end of February. We think this is towards the low end of the range at
which utilities will reenter the market for tons.

Will Utilities Wait Until Spring? Despite rumblings of spot activity, demand for spot coal has been
slower than some have expected, particularly since utilities went into the year leaving a larger
percentage of their forecasted burn open for the spot market. We’ve heard some speculation that
buyers will wait until peak winter burn ends to reevaluate their position, suggesting more robust
buying activity.
Consumption: A strong 77.28 mm tons, up 5.55% YoY. Actual burn came in just shy of our forecast
of 78.5 mm, as higher quality coal was consumed.

P a g e 11

Implied Deliveries: Producers continue to show discipline, and deliveries of 69.50 were the weakest
for the month of Dec since 2000. Producer discipline and weather related transportation disruptions,
are to blame.

Jan/Drawdown of 12 mm: Our January forecast calls for an aggressive drawdown of 12 mm tons,
sending stockpiles to 135.97 mm tons (versus the 10-year average drawdown of just 4.94 mm tons).
Yes, we know this is huge, but such a big drawdown is not unprecedented (the drawdown in Jan
2010 was 11.38 mm). We experienced significantly higher natgas prices and record cold temps.
Not only does this bolster coal demand, but disrupts mining, rail delivery, barge delivery, and coal
unloading (coal freezing in rail cars). We think the aggressive drawdown is merited, though nuclear
capacity factor of 97% in Jan (vs average of 94% normally) could buffer the upside from, strong
burn.
Feb/Drawdown of 6 mm: We increased our forecast to a drawdown of 6 mm (from 4 mm). Weather
was extreme, rail service and mining were disrupted, and natgas moved significantly higher. The
forecast sends stockpiles to 129.97 mm tons, the lowest level for the month of February since 2006.
March/Flat: We forecast stockpiles will stay flat in March, versus the 10-year average build of 6.06
mm tons. Weather looks favorable going into the month, and the natgas curve is very supportive of
coal gen. This forecast may prove to be conservative, particularly after a 3.81 mm ton drawdown last
March, but we will see how March unfolds and revise our forecast as needed.
Utility Inventories by Month (mmt)
Chg
(mmt FEB
)
139.4
143.1
2002 987.58
0.90
0
5
Annual
Year
JAN
Cons.

Chg
(mmt MAR
)
146.4
3.75
4


Chg
(mmt APR
)
153.3
3.29
8

Chg
(mmt MAY
)
155.3
6.93
1

Chg
(mmt JUN
)
152.1
1.94
3

P a g e 12

Chg
(mmt
)
-3.18

2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

1014.0
6
1020.5
2
1041.4
5
1030.5
6
1046.8
0
1042.3
4

2009 934.68
2010 979.68
2011 934.94
2012 825.74
2013

862.00
(est)

134.7
130.3
133.5
-6.95
-4.39
6
7
4
111.7
107.7
113.1
-9.81
-4.05
6
1
3
105.2
97.51 -9.16 98.06 0.55
3
105.4
105.9
112.1
4.26
0.59
0
9
4
136.3
133.4
141.3
-4.59
-2.91
8
7
9
146.9
142.7
146.5
-4.25
-4.19
7
8
0
156.0
160.6
174.2
-5.51
4.53
8
0
2
178.0 171.0
177.7
-7.07
9
11.38 3
4
164.5 161.0
166.2
-3.51
8
10.34 6
6
180.0
186.8
195.3
7.70
6.78
9
7
8
178.7
175.3
171.5
-6.37
-3.42
5
3
2
135.9 129.9
129.9
-6.00
7
12.00 7
7

140.7
1
121.1
5.42
0
115.9
7.17
2
125.1
6.16
0
149.6
7.92
6
154.0
3.72
3
185.7
13.62
9
189.2
6.72
6
173.4
5.19
3
202.2
8.51
7
172.6
-3.81
5
3.16

7.17
7.97
10.69
12.96
8.27
7.53
11.57
11.52
7.17
6.89
1.14

146.1
0
123.7
4
119.9
0
133.8
4
154.7
4
159.4
1
195.1
0
191.6
7
174.0
9
203.1
4
176.6
7

5.40
2.64
3.98
8.74
5.08
5.38
9.31
2.41
0.67
0.87
4.02

2014
876.00
0.00
(est)
10145.5
144.2
150.3
158.9
163.2
yr
987.08
-4.94
-1.27
6.06
8.57
4.31
6
9
5
2
3
Avg
10-yr Avg calculated from 2004 - 2013 for Jan - Nov and 2003 - 2012 for Dec
Chg
Chg
Chg
Chg
Chg
Annual
Year
JUL (mmt AUG (mmt SEP (mmt OCT (mmt NOV (mmt
Cons.
)
)
)
)
)
142.6
137.1
135.9
140.8
144.6
2002 987.58
-9.50
-5.50
-1.17
4.84
3.81
3
3
6
0
1
1014.0 134.9
126.7
124.5
127.6
126.6
2003
-9.29
-8.22
-2.23
3.13
-0.95
6
7
5
2
4
9
1020.5 111.6
108.0
106.2
111.1
113.3
2004
-8.64
-3.56
-1.85
4.94
2.15
2
3
6
1
5
0
1041.4 105.6
101.2
106.5
2005
-9.89 98.88 -6.75 98.19 -0.69
3.03
5.36
5
3
2
7
1030.5 127.8
123.8
126.8
134.9
140.4
2006
-7.84
-4.01
2.99
8.07
5.50
6
9
8
7
4
4
1046.8 145.4
140.6
142.6
150.0
154.2
2007
-9.36
-4.78
2.00
7.41
4.22
0
5
7
7
8
9
1042.3 142.5
139.3
143.9
155.6
163.3
2008
-9.97
-3.22
4.55
11.76
7.73
4
7
5
0
6
9


144.2
6
120.2
6
115.5
2
135.7
3
154.8
1
152.5
4
195.6
6
181.4
9
165.1
5
197.9
2
170.5
3

-1.85
-3.48
-4.38
1.89
0.08
-6.87
0.55
10.18
-8.94
-5.21
-6.14

158.9
-4.27
6

DEC
141.7
1
121.5
7
106.6
7
101.1
4
140.9
6
151.2
2
161.5
9

P a g e 13

Chg
(mmt
)
-2.89
-5.12
-6.63
-5.44
0.52
-3.07
-1.80

2009 934.68
2010 979.68
2011 934.94
2012 825.74
2013

862.00
(est)

193.5
6
169.5
0
147.3
0
183.9
6
159.5
4

-2.09
11.99
17.85
13.97
11.00

191.5
3
159.9
9
138.5
3
178.5
4
154.1
2

-2.03
-9.52
-8.77
-5.42
-5.42

197.2
1
163.7
8
143.7
1
182.0
2
152.1
9

199.4
8
175.6
3.79
9
156.2
5.18
0
186.4
3.48
0
153.3
-1.93
5
5.68

2014
876.00
(est)
10yr
148.7 143.3
145.6
Avg 987.08
-5.35
2.32
0
10.26 5
7
*
Source: EIA and DTC estimates

203.7
7
183.3
11.91
9
167.7
12.49
5
188.2
4.38
9
155.7
1.17
5
2.27

152.4
6.74
1

189.4
7
174.9
7.70
2
172.3
11.56
9
185.1
1.90
2
147.9
2.40
7
131.0
0
4.29

157.6
5.28
9

14.30
-8.47
4.63
-3.18
-7.78

153.1
-4.55
4

Quality Breakdown: Bituminous coal accounts for a larger percentage of overall stockpiles in Dec
‘13 than Dec ’12.

Coal Burn/Days of Supply: Coal burn in December was 77.28 mm tons (up 17.27% seq and 5.55%
YoY). December inventories represent 64 days of supply (vs 66 days seq and 81 days YoY).


P a g e 14

Stockpile by Coal Type and Region: Bituminous stockpiles fell in all regions on a seq basis, with
the biggest loss being in the Northeast, down 28.06%. On a days-of-burn basis, bituminous coal in
the Northeast dropped 35.48% representing 40 days of supply and its sub bit coal dropped 50.00%
representing only 19 days of supply.

Bituminous Coal Inventory By Region
Stocks (K tons)
Seq
YoY
Dec-13
Chg
Chg
Northeast 5,224
-33.42%
28.06%
South
41,646 -3.70% -18.49%

Days of Burn
Seq
Dec-13
Chg
40
35.48%
71
-5.33%
Midwest
14,211 -5.43% -15.30% 54
11.48%
West
5,637
-6.75% -23.41% 94
-3.09%
Subbituminous Coal Inventory By Region
Stocks (K tons)
Days of Burn
Seq
YoY
Seq
Dec-13
Dec-13
Chg
Chg
Chg
Northeast 282
-48.63% 19
17.06%
50.00%
South
3,790
-44.06% 34
34.69%
38.18%
Midwest
30,973 -33.17% 45

YoY
Chg
-27.27%
-21.98%
-15.63%
-27.69%

YoY
Chg
-38.71%
-47.69%
-35.71%
P a g e 15

West

25,233

15.22%
-6.79%

-25.05% 58

15.09%
-6.45%

-29.27%

EIA Data for December Generation: December was a solid month for coal, which accounted
for 40.4% of total gen in the month compared to 39.1% for the year. Cold weather combined with
natgas prices at $4.24/mmBtu, put coal (including Capp) in the money at many units. Total HDDs
were up 20% YoY at 824 and natgas prices were up $0.90/mmBtu YoY. Nuclear units ran hard at
94% for Dec compared to Nov at 89%. Only 14 units had an outage of some sort compared to 24 in
Nov.
EIA Generation Data
Total Generation
YoY Change
Seq Change
Dec 2013 (billion KWh)
352.4
5.30%
12.30%
Jan - Dec 2013 (billion KWh)
4,058.2
0.26%
n/a
2012 Total (trillion KWh)
4.048
-1.28%
n/a
Total Gen in Dec was up 5.30% YoY and 12.30% seq (while Nov was up 2.54% YoY
and down 0.30% seq). In the demand breakdowns, we noted that Industrial demand
was down 3.1% YTD in Dec (vs. down 3.2% YTD in Nov); Commercial demand was flat
in Dec (vs. up 0.5% YTD in Nov); Residential demand was up 1.2% YTD in Dec (vs. flat
in Nov). YTD through Dec, total gen is up 0.26% YoY vs being down 0.20% in Nov.
DTC Read: Cold weather and gains in industrial production have pushed total gen up in
Dec. HDD in Dec at 824 were 20% higher than last year and 17% higher than the
average of the last two years. Industrial capacity is up 2.9% YoY.
Coal Generation
YoY Change
Seq Change
142.3
6.13%
17.19%
1,586.0
4.75%
n/a
2012 Total (trillion KWh)
1.514
-12.66%
n/a
The 6.13% YoY gain in coal generation compared to the 5.30% YoY gain in total gen
means that coal's share of the generation mix was greater in Dec 13 vs Dec 12. DTC
Read: Coal generated 40.4% of electricity in Dec and 39.1% of 2013 total generation.
Dec natgas prices were $4.24/mmBtu, up $0.90/mmBtu YoY, pushing more coal in the
money for generation. Even units scheduled for retirement ran hard as evidenced by
AEP's statement that 7150 MWs of soon-to-retire coal units ran at 89% capacity factor.
Utility Coal Consumption
YoY Change
Seq Change
Dec 2013 (million tons)
77.3
5.55%
17.27%
Jan - Dec 2013 (million tons)
860.8
4.25%
n/a
2012 Total (billion tons)
0.826
-11.68%
n/a
The 17.27% seq increase in coal consumption vs the 17.19% increase in coal
generation means that the coal burned in Dec was lower in Btu content than in Nov.
Total utility coal consumption in Dec was 77.3 mm tons, up 5.55% from Dec 2012. YTD
consumption of 860.8 mm tons was up 4.25% YoY (compared to up 4.12% in Nov).
DTC Read: YoY change in utility coal consumption was lower than YoY change in coal
generation indicating that proportionally more high heat content coals are being
consumed YoY. With natgas prices in Dec at $4.24/mmBtu, ILB, Napp, and even some
Capp were dispatching more often.
Hydro Generation
YoY Change
Seq Change

P a g e 16

21.3
-7.23%
20.25%
269.1
-2.57%
n/a
2012 Total (billion KWh)
276.2
-13.50%
n/a
Dec hydro gen was down 7.23% YoY and up 20.25% seq (vs. down 5.34% YoY and up
2.46% seq in Nov). Hydro gen is important because it dispatches before both coal and
natgas. DTC Read: Drought conditions affect 51.76% of the nation, down from 56.18%
in November. The Pacific Northwest is experiencing abnormally dry to severe drought
conditions with CA in extreme drought conditions.
Nuclear Generation
YoY Change
Seq Change
71.3
3.95%
9.73%
789.0
2.56%
n/a
769.3
-2.64%
n/a
Nuclear gen in Dec was up 3.95% YoY and 9.73% seq (vs. up 14.57% YoY and 2.83%
seq in Nov). Nuclear gen is important because it dispatches before coal. DTC Read:
Nuclear capacity factor rose to 94% from 89% in Nov. The 10-year average for Dec is
93%. Nine nukes had unplanned outages, four were out for refueling and one had
scheduled maintenance.
Natgas Generation
YoY Change
Seq Change
91.8
9.27%
10.43%
1,113.7
-9.15%
n/a
1,225.9
20.93%
n/a
Natgas generation is up 9.27% YoY (vs. up 3.67% last month) and up 10.43% seq (vs
down 5.61% in Nov). YTD natgas gen is down 9.15% vs being down 10.51% last month.
DTC Read: Natgas prices jumped 16.5% from Nov and are up 26.9% YoY. Natgas gen
in 2013 dropped 9.15% YoY.
Other Generation (Solar, wind, biomass &
geothermal)
YoY Change
Seq Change
25.7
2.64%
-3.18%
300.4
14.54%
n/a
262.3
7.72%
n/a
Solar, wind and other non-oil generation is highly volatile, mostly because it is
dependent on the wind blowing or the sun shining. It is a small but important
component because it dispatches before coal and natgas. Dec generation is up 2.64%
YoY and down 3.18% seq (vs up 22.51% YoY and 7.44% in Nov).
Source: EIA, DTC Commentary

Visit:


P a g e 17

CLICK HERE
Rule 17B Attestations
Princeton has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them
for I.R.. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from
RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought 81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products. Princeton will
be engaged by Target Energy. No contract is currently in place. When there is no movement in penny
stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate ( sold AIVN on stop ) even
though we like the company, if money is needed for better opportunities. We now believe REPR
represents upside opportunity. The Target ADR trades at about $ 4.50 in U.S. vs 0.045 in Australia.
Princeton owns 400,000 Australia shares and about 500 U.S. ADR’s. Princeton is paid about 500,000
shares of Leo Motors.
Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should
recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the
performance of any recommendations referred to in this e-mail issue. Princeton may buy or sell its
free-trading shares in companies it represents at any time.

CONTACT
Please Direct All Inquiries To:

Mike King
(702) 650-3000
mike@princetonresearch.com

Princeton Research
3887 Pacific Street, Las Vegas, Nevada 89121
Visit: PrincetonResearch.com


P a g e 18

High Yield Investments and best short term investments for 2014

Empfohlen

Empfohlen

Weitere ähnliche Inhalte

Andere mochten auch

Andere mochten auch (8)

Kürzlich hochgeladen

Kürzlich hochgeladen (20)

High Yield Investments and best short term investments for 2014