A model for predicting market penetration speed and market potential for innovations is proposed.

1. 06-11-2011

2. •
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3. Some historical data analysis
•
•
•
•

4. Some historical data analysis
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

5. Some historical data analysis
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

6. 50000
Some historical data analysis
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

7. Some historical data analysis

8. Some historical data analysis

9. Some historical data analysis
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

10. 8000
Some historical data analysis
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

11. Some historical data analysis
2,5E+09
2E+09
1,5E+09
1E+09
500000000
0
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

12. Some historical data analysis
2
Miljarden
1,8
1,6
1,4
1,2
1
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

13. Some historical data analysis
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980

14. Some historical data analysis
30,00%
25,00%
20,00%
15,00%
10,00%
5,00%
0,00%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

15. Predicting markets: Model for
predicting market penetration time
160
140
Global Nespresso
120 25 years
Global McDonalds
40 years
100
80 Global Internet
41 years NL Van Dobben
Global Cars, kroket 15 years
60 128 years
40
20 US Televisions
17,5 years Global Starbucks
22 years
0
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

16. Predicting markets:

17. Predicting markets: Facebook
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
17
0
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
2004

18. 2,5E+09
Predicting markets: Facebook
2E+09
1,5E+09
1E+09
500000000
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

19. Predicting markets: Facebook

20. Predicting markets: Facebook
2500
Miljoenen
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

21. Predicting markets: photovoltaic Si cells
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
29
20
0
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
1977

22. Predicting markets: photovoltaic Si cells
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

23. Predicting markets: photovoltaic Si cells

24. Predicting markets