Are we about to see the can kicked down the road yet again on Greece? The current debt obligations will come to a head this week and we will find out whether Greece will default, which would dramatically increase the chances of a Eurozone “Grexit”. Around €6bn of capital has taken flight from Greek banks in the past week (around €44bn in the year to date).

1. Weekly Outlook
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22nd June 2015 by Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Macro Commentary
Are we about to see the can kicked down the road yet again on Greece? The current debt obligations will come to a head
this week and we will find out whether Greece will default, which would dramatically increase the chances of a Eurozone
“Grexit”. Around €6bn of capital has taken flight from Greek banks in the past week (around €44bn in the year to date).
Greek banks are facing serious liquidity issues that the ECB will need to support. On the 30th June Greece is due to repay
€1.6bn to the IMF for its debts due in June. Today, the Eurozone countries are holding an emergency leaders summit in
an attempt to finally accept that Greece has done enough to allow the release of a €7.2bn final tranche of bailout money
that it needs to pay its debts. The Greeks have put together a proposal over the weekend, that supposedly includes a
series of spending cuts and tax rises. Initial signs are promising, especially if you look at the market reaction with the
German Bund yield reversing its track lower (suggesting less of a flight to safety), whilst the DAX is also sharply higher. If
something concrete is agreed then markets could fly in the coming days. For several weeks sentiment has been hit by
Greece, finally we could be ready for the relief rally. Let’s see if there’s a deal first though.
have
WHEN: Wed, 25th June, 1330BST
LAST: 1.2%
FORECAST: 1.1%
Impact: At the latest FOMC press conference, Fed
Chair Janet Yellen suggested that the committee
needed to see further evidence that inflation was
on a sustainable path back towards the 2% target.
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is
Personal Consumption Expenditure which has
been stubbornly low in recent months and the
expectation of +0.1% for the month is not going to
show an improvement again. The dollar traders
will be keenly watching the PCE data this week as
any improvement will add to the FOMC hawks’
argument. Treasury yields will also react whilst
“good news is bad” for Wall Street still.
Must watch for: Personal Consumption Expenditure
Key Economic Releases
Date Time Country Indicator Consensus Last
Mon 22nd Jun 15:00 US Existing Home Sales 5.26m 5.04m
Tue 23rd Jun 02:45 China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.4 49.1
Tue 23rd Jun 10:00 UK BoE Inflation Report Hearings
Tue 23rd Jun 13:30 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) +0.6% +0.5%
Tue 23rd Jun 15:00 US New Home Sales 530,000 520,000
Wed 24th Jun 09:00 Eurozone German Ifo Business Climate 108.1 108.5
Wed 24th Jun 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -2.68m
Thu 25th Jun 13:30 US Personal Consumption Expenditure (core) +1.1% +1.2%
Fri 26th Jun 03:30 Japan CPI (core) 0.0% +0.3%
Fri 26th Jun 15:00 US UoM Consumer Sentiment (final) 94.6 94.6
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1
US core Personal Consumption Expenditure
N.B. Please note all times are BST (GMT+1), data source Reuters

2. Weekly Outlook
22nd June 2015
by Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Foreign Exchange
Looking at the longer term chart of the Dollar Index could instantly give dollar bulls a case of the wobbles. Having
previously broken the long term 10 month uptrend, support at 93.25 has the potential to turn out to be the neckline of a
huge head & shoulders top. This chart has clear links the to bull move on EUR/USD (the euro accounts for around 57% of
the Dollar Index) that has resulted in a move back towards the key resistance band at $1.1465. The fact that Cable has
already broken out may add to the jitters of the dollar bulls though. My expectation is that EUR/USD will continue to
trade in the range, which would mean that the top pattern on Dollar Index will remain intact. Furthermore, there are the
bullish setups for the dollar versus the Japanese yen, the Aussie and the Kiwi, with the Kiwi surely weighed down by
continued dovish rhetoric from the RBNZ. The outlook on the Canadian Loonie remains rangebound and whilst the Swissy
has drifted higher in the past few weeks, the assertion from the SNB that the Swissy is overvalued should help to keep a
cap on any gains. A deal for Greece could though drive the euro higher. Resistance at $1.1460 on EUR/USD is crucial.
WATCH FOR: Forex market will move off sentiment driven from the progress of the Greek negotiations.
The batch of US data will add further weight to arguments over the Fed’s monetary policy in the coming
months. The UK inflation report hearings will have a big impact on sterling.
EUR/USD
Watch for: The euro remains supported and
pressure is growing for a test of $1.1465
Outlook: Despite the uncertainty over
Greece, a dovish lean from the Fed has
helped to support EUR/USD and this means
that the key resistance at $1.1460 remains
under pressure. This is an absolutely critical
resistance (see above). Interestingly the
momentum indicators do not point towards
an imminent breakout, with the RSI
continuing to languish under 60. This still
makes me believe that even if there were to
be a breakout then it is still likely to be a
false breakout.
USD/JPY
Watch for: A higher low forming around the
key 122.00 breakout
Outlook: For a few weeks I have been talking
about a retreat on USD/JPY back towards the
old breakout at 122.00. Along with the fact
that the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the
118.86/125.85 bull run comes in at 122.35
and has been holding for the past couple of
weeks as a basis of support suggests to me
that this is part of the process of building for
the next key low. Although momentum
indicators are still in correction mode I still
see Dollar/Yen as a medium to longer term
bullish outlook and despite any safe haven
flows that could be seen this week we may
also see the next low too.
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FX Outlook
2

3. Weekly Outlook
22nd June 2015
by Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Indices
Finally, Wall Street had something domestic to drive sentiment rather than just bothering about the “will they, won’t
they” of Greece. The dovish lean from the Fed boosted sentiment last week, leading to an upside break to an all-time
high on the NASDAQ. The S&P 500has been a touch more reserved as it still has a Greek twitch, but still it is clear that
Wall Street continues to weather the storm of uncertainty far better than its European counterparts. The DAX volatility
remains high and has been growing in June. With the increased prospect of a Greek deal the DAX has flown higher and
you can expect that this week the volatility will be ramped up even more, with every rumour of progress or lack thereof
(of which there have been a load) being leapt upon by day traders. The DAX has already corrected over 10% from the
12,390 all time high in mid-April and there will be debate over how much of a potential Greek default has already been
priced in. If a deal goes through then you can expect a continuation of the relief rally. However further disappointments
will drive investors into the safe haven of German Bunds yet again which would certainly weigh significantly on sentiment
for the DAX. The French CAC has been trading almost stride for stride with the DAX recently, whilst FTSE 100 remains the
market’s equivalent of the lost puppy, seemingly chasing the DAX’s tail wherever it goes but in a less volatile fashion.
WATCH FOR: Eurozone leaders summit will impact on market sentiment as will any subsequent newsflow.
Wall Street will focus on the inference that US data flow has on the Fed with good news bad for equities
DAX Xetra
Watch for: A move above 11,453 is a
technical upside break, but Greece is key
Outlook: The DAX has been trading between
the 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement
levels of the 8355/12390 bull run between
10,850/11,438 for the past few weeks as
newsflow has shifted back and forth on
Greece. Unless there is something concreted
coming out of today’s Eurozone leaders
summit this volatility is likely to continue.
Key resistance comes in the reaction high at
10,453 and a break would open further
upside towards 11,920. Support comes in at
10,979.
FTSE 100
Watch for: Resistance at 6870 being tested
on a successful Greece deal
Outlook: A sharp rally early on Monday is
looking to turn around sentiment that had
been increasingly concerning. It is clear that
Greece has been a sizable drag on equities
whilst the flip-side of that means that if
there is a deal agreed between Greece and
its creditors then a significant rally can be
expected. The initial resistance is the lower
reaction high at 6870 and a break above this
level would be a key sign of a confirmed
change in sentiment. Support is now at
6625.
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INDEX Outlook
3

4. Weekly Outlook
22nd June 2015
by Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Other Assets: Commodities & Bonds
The precious metals had a double shot in the arm last week amid the possibility of a Greece default (flight to safety) and
a dovish Federal reserve (negative for the dollar), however with heightened prospects of a deal for Greece, the safe
haven trade is beginning to unwind. However, sensitivity is likely to remain elevated as the negotiations with Greece as
yet unresolved. US data will continue to be poured over for implications for a possible Fed rate hike in September which
will have a negative correlation to the prices of precious metals. The oil prices continue to trade rangebound which on
WTI is now over two months old.
The safe haven flows that had dragged the yields on the 10 year German Bund back below 0.800% last week are
beginning to reverse once more as the prospects of a Greece deal have picked up. This is causing big volatility and a
retracement on the core/periphery Eurozone spread (measured as Spanish versus German). The dovish Fed has resulted
in a “bull flattening” across the US yield curve, with the 10 year yield back below the support around 2.30%.
WATCH FOR: Focus remains squarely on Greece for the safe haven trades and the announcement of key US
data (this week predominantly core PCE and Durable Goods Orders).
Gold
Watch for: A neutral near term outlook
driven by US data
Outlook: The bearish outlook has been
neutralised by a sharp rally and now we
are back in the position where gold is
increasingly sensitive to US data
announcements and also the progress on
Greece. Technically the indicators are
increasingly neutral once more with the
RSI back to seemingly trading between
40/60 and moving averages flat again. A
close above $1205 would suggest a rally
within the range towards the
$1225/$1232 resistance again.
German 10 year Bund yield
Watch for: Recent correction to find
support if a Greece deal is confirmed
Outlook: Although the volatility on the Bund
yield had been looking to calm down, the
technicals have been correcting. However
trading is moving off Greek developments
now this could leave support in place at
0.727%. This comes just above the support
at 0.681% and with the RSI having unwound
towards 50 before picking up again this
could be a chance to buy potentially.
Essentially though it will be a news driven
more with Greece so prominent in the safe
haven flows. The German Bund yield can be
expected to pick up should hold the support
if a deal is agreed.
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COMMODITIES & BONDS Outlook
4

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Weekly Outlook
22nd June2015
by Richard Perry, Market Analyst