25 nov pi planning using hdm moldova

Design and Implementation of Road Maintenance Reform. Republic of Moldova
Hamid Zarghampour
2010-11-25
Moldova
Planning using HDM

Asset Management today
 Set Goals and Objectives
 Collect Inventory and Condition Data
 Rates of Deterioration
 Performance Standards & Measures
 Life-Cycle Cost Analysis
 Investment Strategies
 Programs, Projects, and Practices
 Monitoring Feedback and Adjustments

Management
Organisation
Information/
Data
Road works
Effect
Road
Deterioration
HDM 4
1 5432

Requirements
Needs
Prioritized needs Programme Annual
Activities
Existing plans, Strategies
Policies
Government, Users, Interested parties, etc.
Needs
PDS
Requirements and
Prioritized Needs
This is what RA
attempt to do
Programme
These are RA’s
modes/Procedures
Action Plan
RA Activities
this year
Management Information PresentationPlanningCompetences
1 5432
Goals and Objectives
“Doing things right”
“Doing right things”

Management
Organisation
Information/
Data
Presentation
Technique
Case StudiesHDM 4
1 5432

HDM 4
 Management cycle
 HDM 4
Maintenance Management
Management Function and HDM4
Structure of HDM4
Technical analysis tools within HDM 4
 Road Engineering from Art to Science
Road Deterioration concept and models in HDM 4
Road Works Classification in HDM 4
Road works Effects
 Economy
DHM 4, Economical Indicators

0-500 500-1500 1500-4000 4000-7000 7000-
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Important Elements in the plan:
 Name of section
 Geographical location
 Length
Type of works
 Cost estimates
 Timing of work
Traffic
Packaging appropriate
mix of Road works
with regards to
available budgetV ä g m a r k e r in g
V ä g t r u m m o r
B e r g a r b e t e n , b o r r n in g
s p r ä n g n in gM ä tn in g a v
v ä g y ta n s tills tå n d
S lä n te r
E r o s io n s s k y d d
B e lä g g n in g
B ä r la g e r
B ä r ig h e ts m ä tn in g
F a llv ik ts d e f le k t o m e t e r
April- September
August
October
December- March
March - October
September- November
New plan
November- December
August-
October
Road Class
Paved Roads Unpaved Roads
Good Fair Poor Bad Good Poor Bad
National Roads 4 6 8 >8 - - -
Secondary 5 7 9 >9 6 8 10

HDM 4, Tool for Road AM
 Maintenance Management
 Planning:
 Estimation of expenditure
 Forecasting of various budget vs. road development
 Policy making, dialog with financier (Government)
 Programming:
 Estimation of expenditure for different works and activities
 Key aspect of programming is prioritization of work
 Find the best use of the constrained budget
 Multi-year works and expenditure program
 Cost-benefit analysis are required

HDM 4, Tool for Road AM
 Maintenance Management
 Preparation:
 Short term planning
 Road schemes are packaged for implementation
 Designs are refined and prepared in more detail
 Bills of quantities and detail costing are made
 Detailed cost-benefit is carried out to confirm the feasibility project
 Operation:
 Refers to the on-going activities
 scheduling of works such as monitoring in terms of: labour,
equipment and materials and recording of works completed, etc...

Change in Management Process
Activity Time horizon Spatial Coverage Information Mode of
computer
Operation
Planning Long term
(Strategic)
Network Wide Coarse
Summary Automatic
Programming Medium term
(Tactical)
Network
Sub Network
Preparation Budget Year Scheme Level
Section
Operation Immediate/
Short term
Scheme Level
Sub Section
Fine/detailed Interactive
IQL

Information, Data
 What kind of information do we need?
 It is always dependent on:
What decisions do we need to make?
What information/data are required to make these decisions?
Can we afford to collect the data?
If it needs updating, can we afford to keep data current over time?
 Guiding Principle
 Collect only the data you need!
 Collect it only when you need to!
 The level of detail should be appropriate for the decisions being
made:
Network level data for network level analyses
project level for project level analyses

Management function and HDM 4
Management
Function
Common description HDM 4 Application
Planning - Strategic Analysis System
- Network Planning
- Pavement Management System
- Programme analysis System
HDM 4
Strategy Analysis
Programming -Pavement Management System
-Budgeting System
HDM 4
Programme Analysis
Preparation - Project Analysis System
. Pavement Management System
- Pavement/Overlay design System
- Contract procurement System
HDM 4
Project Analysis
Operation - Project Management System
- Maintenance Management System
- Equipment Management System
- Financial Management/Accounting System
Not addressed by
HDM

Structure of HDM 4
 Core Data Objects in HDM 4 are defined in the
following data managers:
 HDM-4 Configuration
 Defines the default data to be used in the applications
 Road Network
 Defines the characteristic of road sections
 Vehicle fleet
 Defines the characteristic of the vehicle fleet
 Road works
 Defines Maintenance and improvement standards incl. unit costs

Technical analysis within HDM
4 Road Deterioration (RD)
 Predicts pavement deterioration for:
 Bituminous
 Concrete and
 Unsealed roads
 Works Effects (WE)
 Simulates:
 The effects of road works on pavement condition
 Determine the corresponding costs

Technical analysis within HDM
4.. Road User Effects (RUE)
 Determines:
 Costs of vehicle operation
 Travel time
 Road accidents (only in the CBA)
 Social and Environment Effects (SEE)
 Determines:
 The effects of vehicle emissions
 Energy consumption

HDM 4 processes for analysis
Calculate
Annual effects and
costs
Calculate
Road
deterioration
Calculate
Road
User Effect
VOC, time, etc
Calculate
Social and
Environmental
Effects
Calculate
Road Works
Effect s
Add Exogenous
Costs and
Benefits
Return

Road Deterioration

Road Engineering from Art to Science
q
Experience
1900-1960
CBR
60-
AASHTO
70-
Mechanistic
approach80-
HDM III
90-
FEM ”Pavement history”
“Homogenous sections”

V ä g m a r k e r in g
s p r ä n g n in gM ä t n in g a v
v ä g y t a n s t ills t å n d
S lä n t e r
B e lä g g n in g
B ä r la g e r
F ö r s t ä r k n in g s la g e r
T jä ls s k y d d
U p p f r y s a n d e b lo c k
Ö v e r b y g g n a d
m a t e r ia lv a l o c h d im e n s io n e r in g
T e r r a s s m a t e r ia l
A v v a t t n in g
D r ä n e r in g
B ä r ig h e t s m ä t n in g
F a llv ik t s d e f le k t o m e t e r
Road Construction today

V ä g m a r k e r in g
s p r ä n g n in gM ä t n in g a v
v ä g y t a n s t ills t å n d
S lä n t e r
B e lä g g n in g
B ä r la g e r
F ö r s t ä r k n in g s la g e r
T jä ls s k y d d
U p p f r y s a n d e b lo c k
Ö v e r b y g g n a d
m a t e r ia lv a l o c h d im e n s io n e r in g
T e r r a s s m a t e r ia l
A v v a t t n in g
D r ä n e r in g
B ä r ig h e t s m ä t n in g
F a llv ik t s d e f le k t o m e t e r
Climate
Traffic
 Design Criterion
Wear
Stability
Deformation, (plastic)
Fatigue
Frost heave action, etc…
Road Construction today

Road Deterioration concept in HDM 4:
 is a function of:
 original design
 material types
 construction quality
 traffic volume and axle loading
 road geometry
 pavement age
 environmental condition
 maintenance policy pursued

Rate of wear:
 is a function of:
 Mix design
 Material quality (BM value)
 Studded tires
 Speed
 Carriage width

Fatigue:
 is mostly caused by:
 heavy vehicles
 Other reasons:
 If it is occurred on early stage after reconstruction, construction
service life is ended
not good enough mix design
inadequate bearing capacity
etc…

Frost heave action

Bearing Capacity

Plastic deformation

Bleeding

Ravelling

Cracking

Separation

HDM-4 Deterioration Models

Scope of modeling road deterioration
 Physical environments
 Climatic Zones
 Pavement
 Rigid concrete
 wide range of flexible pavements
 Unsealed pavement
 Drainage effects
 shoulders deterioration, (effects on pavement strength)

Classes of Models
 Mechanistic
 use sound fundamental theories of soil mechanic to predict pavement
behavior
 Empirical
 based on statistical analysis of locally deterioration trends
 Structural mechanistic-empirical approach
 based on identifying the functional form and primary variables from
external sources
statistical techniques to quantify their impact

Pavement Classification System (Bituminous Pavement)
 Pavement Type
 Asphalt Mix on Asphalt Base
 Asphalt Mix on Granular Base
 Asphalt Mix on Stabilized Base
 Asphalt Mix on Pavement Base
 Surface Type
 Asphalt Concrete
 Hot Rolled Asphalt
 Polymer Modified asphalt dressing
 Rubberized Asphalt Concrete
 Cold Mix
 Porous Asphalt
 Stone Mastic Asphalt

Pavement Classification System (Bituminous Pavement)
 Pavement Type
 Surface Treatment on Asphalt Base
 Surface Treatment on Granular Base
 Surface Treatment on Stabilized Base
 Surface Treatment on Pavement Base
 Surface Type
 Single Bituminous Surface Dressing
 Double Bituminous Surface Dressing
 Cold Mix
 Cape Seal
 Slurry Seal
 Penetration MacAdam

Modeling Framework
 For each pavement type:
 a generic model applies to describes the pavement deterioration
 After maintenance treatments:
 the generic pavement type can change
 Pavement Strength:
 is characterized by “Adjusted Structural Number” (SNP)
 The SNP applies a weighting factor (prevent over-prediction of
pavement strength with increase of depth)
 Construction Quality:
 Construction Defect Indicators: CDS (surface) and CDB (Base)
CDS: 0.5-1,5 from brittle to soft depending on Binder content
CDB: 0-1,5, No defects or several defects

Concrete
Joint spalling

Road Works
Bituminous
Pavement

Road Works classification
 Routine Maintenance
 Periodic Maintenance
 Special Works
 Improvement Works
 Construction Works

Routine Maintenance
 Routine Pavement
 Patching
 Edge-repair
 Crack sealing
 Spot-re-gravelling
 Shoulders repair, etc.
 Drainage
 Culvert repairs
 Clearing side drains, etc…
 Routine Various
 Vegetation control
 Markings
 Sign, etc…

Periodic Maintenance
 Preventive Treatment
 Fog seal
 Rejuvenation
 Rehabilitation
 Thick overlay
 Mill and replace
 Inlay
 Resurfacing
 Surface dressing
 Slurry seal
 Cape seal
 Thin overlay, re-gravelling
 Reconstruction
 Partial reconstruction
 Full pavement
reconstruction

Special
 Winter
 Snow removal
 Salting/gritting, etc…
 Emergency
 Cleaning debris
 Traffic accident removal, etc..
 Repairing/washout

Improvement
 Widening
 Partial widening
 Lane addition
 Realignment
 Horizontal and vertical geometric
improvement
 Junction improvement
 Off-carriageway
 Shoulders addition
 Shoulders upgrading
 NMT lane addition
 Side drain improvement, etc…

Construction
 Upgrading
 Chang of surface Class
Unsealed surface to Bituminous
Bituminous to Concrete Pavement
 New Section

Outputs
 Pavement deterioration and road works
 Summary of annual pavement condition
 Quantities of road works
 Details of annual road work costs
 Schedule of road works
 Road user effects
 Summary of Road User Cost
 Average traffic speed
 Vehicle speed and capacity ratio
 Vehicle emission
 Energy consumption

Outputs
 Economical Indicators
 Annual cost streams
 Discounted cash flows
 Net Present Value (NPV)
 Economic Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
 Benefit Cost Ration (BCR)
 First Year Benefit (FYB)

Outputs…
 Net Present Value (NPV)
 The higher NPV the higher Benefit
 Without budget constrain, shall the alternative with highest NPV be chosen
 Comments
 Larger investment tends to have higher NPV
 NPV is proportional to the project cost if IRR is the same
 Economic Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
 IRR = the discounted rate at which the NPV is equal to 0
 Gives no indications of the size of costs or benefits of an investment
 Acts as a guide to the profitability of the investment
 The higher the better
 If IRR > Discount rate, the investment is said to be economically justified

Outputs…
 Benefit Cost Ration (BCR)
 Ratio indicating the profitability of one option relative to base option
 Gives no indications of the size of costs or benefits of an investment
 First Year Benefit (FYB)
 FYB is defined as the ratio in present of the net benefit realized in
the first year after construction
 Rough guide to project timing
 If FYB > discounted rate, the project should go ahead
 If FYB < discounted rate the project should be delayed until it satisfies
the criterion

For any kind of planning (programme, Project)!
We need Data/Information:
Road Network
Work standards
Traffic data (Vehicle Fleet)

1 december 2010
We need to prepare
- More than 1? If så:
- SPECIFY
- Visualising section’s conditions
- Map (GIS)
-
-Veify
-Cost estimates
-Maintenance activities
-Routine
-Periodic
- Rehabilitation
- Terminology
- VF available
- Previous studies?

GIS
Data collection
Evaluation
0-500 500-1500 1500-4000 4000-7000 7000-
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Systems
Asset Evaluation
Cost-Benefits
Ministry, RA, RU
Condition Data and analysis
Visual inspections

0-500 500-1500 1500-4000 4000-7000 7000-
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Condition Data and analysis
Need for Inspection Manual
- Will be recommended
IRI
-For this study:
- 900 km of:
-National and Secondary roads
- Analysis tool
- HDM 4
- Overview next week:
- Programme
- Project
•Modelling RN
•Review results
•Writing report
Next week
Script for selection of
Homogenous sections
is available

25 nov pi planning using hdm moldova

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