The Solar Tsunami is coming. If you have not been following recent progress, you may be astonished. The price of solar PV cells has fallen 1000-fold since 1977.
(This updates and replaces my older slide-show 'Our Solar Future.")
8. As we burn the fossil fuelsโฆ
Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007
www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com
As we burn this ancient solar energy
9. As we burn the fossil fuelsโฆ
Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007
www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com
we release its ancient carbon
into the atmosphere.
10. As we burn the fossil fuelsโฆ
Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007
www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com
11. As we burn the fossil fuelsโฆ
Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007
www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com
13. After 10,000 years of relative stability
at 280 ppm, this is how dramatically
CO2 is rising in the atmosphere.
14.
15. Around parts of Greenland, ocean surface temperatures rose
1.8ยฐ-3.6ยฐF between 1990-2011.
16.
17. The last time the world was
3ยฐC warmer, during the Pliocene,
the sea level was up to
25 metres
higher.
We are currently on track for
4ยฐC, 5ยฐC or 6ยฐC warmer
25. 2ยฐC of warming, Hansenโs team says,
will have consequences that will be
โdisastrous,โ and which will
โcause major dislocations for civilization.โ
2ยฐC of warming, Hansenโs team says,
will have consequences that will be
โdisastrous,โ and which will
โcause major dislocations for civilization.โ
26. Which of us is going to raise a hand and say,
โYes, itโs worth itโ?
38. The Age of Fossil Fuels has been the
LAUNCH RAMP
for the Solar Age
500,000 years
Firewood
300 years
Fossil Fuels
Science
Engineering
Enlightenment
Two billion years
Solar Energy
64. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.c
Average home electricity per year
BC home, baseboard heat: 20,000 kWh
BC home, gas heated: 11,000 kWh
Future, LED lights, super efficient: 5,000 kWh?
4 kW solar system: 4,400 kWh
65. BC Hydro generation 50,000 GWh a year
Zero-carbon (hydro & wind) 95%
Potential new wind, river 20,000 GWh
Price of run-of-river energy 7-15 cents kWh
Price of wind energy 10-12 cents kWh
Price of solar PV (2014) 30 cents kWh
Export price for surplus power 2-3 cents kWh
Why there will never be a Solar Feed-in Tariff
in British Columbia
66. Solar Economics in BC, 2014
4 kW PV system. No feed-in tariff
12 cents kwh, 3% per year increase
3% finance
Cost per watt $4
4 kW + tax $16,800
Finance @ 3%$29,300
kWh per year 4,400
25-year savings $21,900
Result -$7,400
67. The solar economics
of British Columbia
are among the
weakest in the world
โ so everywhere else
is better.
70. โOur research suggests that as they become
cheaper, the overall (solar) costs to
consumers are poised to fall to
$2.30 (a watt) by 2015
and to $1.60 by 2020.โ
The disruptive potential of solar power
McKinsey, April 2014
71. Solar Economics in BC, 2020
4 kW PV system. No Feed-in Tariff.
15 cents kwh, 3% per year increase
3% financing
Cost per watt $1.60
4 kW + tax $6,720
Finance @ 3% $9,900
kWh per year 4,400
25 year savings $25,600
Profit +$15,800
73. Solar Economics in BC, 2020
4 kW PV system
15.5 cents kwh, 3% per year increase
Cash down
Cost per kW $1,600
4 kW + 5% tax $6,720
kWh per year 4,400
25 year savings $25,600
Profit +$19,000
74. Solar Economics in Germany, 2020
4 kW PV system
35 cents kwh, 0% per year increase
Cash down
Cost per kW $1,600
4 kW + 0% tax $6,400
kWh per year 4,400
25 year savings $38,500
25 year profit +$32,000
75. To date, over 2,500 investors have used the Mosaic platform
to provide $8.5 million to finance solar projects in
California, Colorado, Florida, New Jersey, and Arizona,
receiving 4.5% โ 7% and 100% on-time payments.
76. 20 year loan, assumes 3% annual electricity price inflation.
77. โPay for power, not panels. You donโt need thousands to buy
a solar power system, you only need a good roof, because
solar panel installation is free.โ
78. Currently installs
1 in 3 residential solar systems
in the U.S.
Also businesses, governments,
schools
Clients include eBay, Walmart,
City of Sacramento,
Los Angeles School District
79. The unresolved solar problem: power storage
Elon Musk is Chairman and largest shareholder in SolarCity
And CEO of Teslaโฆ
and they are collaborating on industrial grade batteries
Tesla
Battery
Traditional
Battery
87. Natural gas:
5 jobs per $1 million
Solar:
14 5 jobs per $1
million
Mass Transit:
22 jobs per $1 million
88. $100 spent on imported oil
$70 leaves the country
$22 goes to the oil company
$3 to the credit card company, $8 to the gas station
$100 spent on renewable energy
may circulate and be spent
10 times before it leaves the country,
creating demand and jobs worth $1,000 in value.
89. Self-financing
Value for future purchasers
Reduced transmission losses
Resiliency against power outages, earthquakes
Creates more jobs per MWh than other kinds of energy
Positive climate response when electricity is gas or coal
90. Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
A billion years
The Sun will not begin to turn
into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
Thatโs 100,000 periods of 10,000 years
91. Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
A billion years
The Sun will not begin to turn
into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
And with every passing year,
solar technology will improve
and fall in price.
92. By 2020, every south-facing roof without 4 kW
will lose up to $1,000 a year
98. 5 million residents = 2 million residences.
1 million x 4 kw = 4,400 gigawatt-hours a year.
+ Commercial and Utility PV = 7,000 Gwh a year
Future demand: 70,000 GWh
Solar PV = 10% of BCโs future demand?
BC in the
Solar Future
99. Impact of snowโs high albedo on solar PV performance
= up to 100% increased yield
100. 100% increased PV yield
due to solar reflection off the snow
December 2010
Ann & Gord Bairdโs Eco-Sense house, Victoria, BC
www.eco-sense.ca
109. Thin Film: average module efficiencies 13.9%
US $0.49 per watt (First Solar)
Conventional multi-crystalline PV: $0.43 per watt
average conversion efficiency 15% - 19%
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115. Thin-film solar PV combined with solar thermal
Sydney, Australia (ARENA)
116. Thin-film solar PV with a solar thermal duct system. The heat
is trapped between the layers and distributed to the home.
120. For the same monthly
micro-loan repayment as
the cost of kerosene,
people in rural areas in the
developing world can
install a 50 watt solar PV
system for their lighting
needs.
www.self.org
126. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.c
Solar Freakinโ Roadways
Could they work? YES
Will they cost more than regular PV? YES
Is it likely that they will be built? NO
But 16 million people have watched the video
and 48,000 people donated $2.2 million to the cause
143. Flat plate solar thermal $5,000 to $9,000
Energy generated: 1,000 - 1,500 kwh a year
Savings @ 0.8 cents kWh = $80 - $120/year
144. CSIRO
China โ $220 per system
Very competitive environment - 800 different systems
Direct water to kitchen, no glycol heat transfer
Total installed: 66 million square metres
Target for 2015: 115 million homes
183. 254 sq km
Global electricity use
110 sq km
European Union
www.desertec.org
High-voltage DC can transmit electricity up to 3000 km.
90% of the worldโs people live within 3000 km
of the worldโs deserts and arid regions
187. Started Himin making solar thermal components in 1990
360 internal company standards
6,300 employees
60,000 partners throughout China
Combines all production steps
Ming Huang
188.
189. Solar Valley, Dezhou, China
Automated assembly line makes 40,000 tubes a day
6 vacuum tube factories
16 km of PV road lighting
Solar office and hotel complex
Solar university, 2000 students, no fees
Solar sports and entertainment complex.
Goal: to set a global example of solar
1,500-4,000 visitors a day
197. 504 solar tubes for central heating and cooling save up to
75% of annual energy costs.
In summer, solar field powers absorption chillers with
electric compression and gas absorption chillers.
Excess heat to seasonal storage area, 1,800 bore holes.
In winter, space heating from seasonal storage ground
source heat pumps, backed up by district heat system.
200. 70% solar energy conversion
1994 square meters solar heat collection
Solar water heating
Building integrated PV lighting
Energy-saving glass
Ceiling radiation
Intelligent sun-shading and building control
201. 90% less energy than conventional building
Solar thermal heating and cooling
Aquifuge trans-seasonal energy storage
Ground source heat pump.