A comprehensive presentation about the climate crisis, and the available solutions. Updated on September 19th, 2016.
Guy Dauncey is a futurist who works to develop a positive vision of a sustainable future, and to translate that vision into action. He lives on Vancouver Island, in Canada.
He is founder of the BC Sustainable Energy Association, co-founder of the Victoria Car Share Cooperative, and the author or co-author of ten books, including The Climate Challenge: 101 Solutions to Global Warming and most recently Journey to the Future: A Better World Is Possible.
He is an Honorary Member of the Planning Institute of BC, a Fellow of the Findhorn Foundation in Scotland, and a Fellow of the Royal Society for the Arts, founded in Britain in 1754.
His websites are www.earthfuture.com, www.journeytothefuture.ca and www.thepracticalutopian.ca.
2. Guy Dauncey is a futurist who works to develop a
positive vision of a sustainable future, and to
translate that vision into action. He lives on
Vancouver Island, in Canada.
He is founder of the BC Sustainable Energy
Association, co-founder of the Victoria Car Share
Cooperative, and the author or co-author of ten
books, including The Climate Challenge: 101
Solutions to Global Warming and
Journey to the Future: A Better World Is Possible.
He is an Honorary Member of the Planning
Institute of BC, a Fellow of the Findhorn
Foundation in Scotland, and a Fellow of the Royal
Society for the Arts, founded in Britain in 1754.
(Old photo. Add ten years.)
www.earthfuture.com
www.journeytothefuture.ca
www.thepracticalutopian.ca
3. A NOTE TO TUTORS
If you are using the slides to teach
a course, please note that the first
200 are mostly about the
problem; the rest are about the
solutions.
So be sure to time yourself. If
students only get the “OMG” side,
they may become alarmed and
depressed. People need the
solutions too, to understand that
change is possible.
Including discussion, the full
presentation needs 3-5 hours.
32. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
1. Earth has a very thin
atmosphere, which traps heat,
protecting us from being roasted
by day and frozen by night.
33. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
2. There are two important
greenhouse gases that trap heat in
the atmosphere, keeping us warm:
water vapor and
carbon dioxide
35. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
3. When there is very low water vapor and
carbon dioxide, Earth enters an Ice Age
37. How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
Ice ageIce age
Over 700,000 years, carbon dioxide (blue) and
temperature (red) tracked each other very closely.
38. How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
Ice ageIce age
39. How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
Ice
age
Ice
age
40. How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
The last 10,000 years
41. How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
The last 150 years,
burning fossil fuels
& deforestation
42. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
4. The fossil fuels that power our world
come from ancient fossil carbon
43. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
4. The fossil fuels that power our world
come from ancient fossil carbon
44. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
4. The fossil fuels that power our world
come from ancient fossil carbon
45. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
4. The fossil fuels that power our world
come from ancient fossil carbon
46. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
4.
4. The fossil fuels that power our world
come from ancient fossil carbon
48. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
As we burn the fossil fuels…
Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007
www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com
5. When we burn fossil fuels, we release their
ancient carbon into the atmosphere
49. 27% of the carbon is going into the ocean,
where it is increasing acidity,
poisoning shellfish and corals
50. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
6. When we destroy forests, we release their
carbon into the atmosphere
How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
52. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
7. The livestock industry – meat & dairy –
is causing 15% of global warming
How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
60. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
9. When there is too much CO2
Earth warms, oceans warm, ice
melts, and the sea level rises
62. The last time the world was 3C warmer,
the sea level was 25 metres higher.
74. If global warming exceeds
1.6°C
up to
31%
of Earth’s species
will be committed to
extinction,
having nowhere to go
to escape the rising heat
76. 10. We need urgent and rapid change
to end these harmful historical habits,
and build a green, sustainable future
How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
95. Why do people really deny
the climate science?
1. If people come to believe it’s true, it will threaten our
corporate profits from fossil fuels.
2. I don’t like big government, and if it was true,
governments would have to act, and they’d need more
powers, so I believe it’s all a government plot.
3. I am a confident, well-educated older male, and I think I
know how the world works. I don’t like being wrong, and
I really don’t like tree-huggers telling me I’m wrong.
4. I’m very comfortable, and I don’t like change - and this
climate thing has got change written all over it.
107. The five fundamental solutions
to the climate crisis
tithe climate crisis
1. 100% renewable energy
108. The five fundamental solutions
to the climate crisis
tithe climate crisis
1. 100% renewable energy
2. Phase out industrial meat
109. The five fundamental solutions
to the climate crisis
tithe climate crisis
1. 100% renewable energy
2. Phase out industrial meat
3. Restore Earth’s forests
110. The five fundamental solutions
to the climate crisis
tithe climate crisis
1. 100% renewable energy
2. Phase out industrial meat
3. Restore Earth’s forests
4. Eco-sequestrate carbon
111. The five fundamental solutions
to the climate crisis
tithe climate crisis
1. 100% renewable energy
2. Phase out industrial meat
3. Restore Earth’s forests
4. Eco-sequestrate carbon
5. A restorative economy
117. 2°C is the boundary between
‘dangerous’ and ‘very dangerous.’
James Hansen, NASA Chief Climate Scientist
2°C is the boundary between
‘dangerous’ and ‘very dangerous.’
James Hansen, NASA Chief Climate Scientist
133. A Global Carbon Cap
A firm global cap
on fossil fuel emissions,
agreed to by all nations,
motivated by real alarm,
and a clear positive vision
of a future green
economy.
By 2015, a global cap of
493 Gt of future CO2
134. for a 75% chance
that the global temperature will not rise by 2°C
The 2015
Global Carbon Budget
493Gigatonnes of CO2
135. = a 25% chance
that we’ll crash right through the 2°C barrier
The 2015
Global Carbon Budget
493Gigatonnes of CO2
140. Annual
reduction in
CO2
emissions
% of
Canada’s
2015
emissions
Year by when
zero
emissions is
achieved
Mt of CO2
released
before before
reaching
zero
Achieved
emissions
reduction
below the
2015 level
Year by when
6,000 Mt
carbon budget
is exhausted
5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028
10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029
15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030
20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033
25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a
33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a
50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a
CANADA’S CHOICES
151. Why so big?
N2O from manure
Methane from manure
Methane from
anaerobic digestion
(burping)US Data
Each molecule of methane traps 34 x more heat
than CO2 over 100 years; 84 x more over 20 years.
153. Here’s the
small print on
GHGs from
livestock.
Livestock’s
Long Shadow.
FAO, 2006.
= 14=18%
163. National Carbon Caps
1. Each nation is allocated a cap, agreed by
negotiation.
2. Every producer or importer of fossil fuels bids for
a permit in a national annual auction.
3. The auction puts a price on carbon and brings
income to the government.
193. The Ten Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
1. Promote climate leadership, engagement,
education and adaptation
194. The Ten Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
2. Create targets, policies and regulations to achieve
100% renewable energy for electricity by 2030
195. The Ten Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
3. Create targets, policies and regulations to achieve
a transition to sustainable transportation
196. The Ten Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
4. Create targets, policies and regulations to achieve
a transition to sustainable buildings
197. The Ten Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
5. Put an annually increasing effective
price on carbon
198. The Ten Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
6. Build a green, cooperative, caring,
entrepreneurial economy for the 21st century
199. The Ten Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
7. Create targets, policies and regulations
to reduce fossil fuel industry emissions
and leave most fossil fuels in the ground
200. The Ten Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
8. Create targets, policies and regulations to help
Canada’s emissions-intensive industries reduce their
emissions and shift to 100% renewable energy
201. The Ten Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
9. Create targets, policies and regulations to help
Canada’s farmers, ranchers and foresters to reduce
their emissions and sequestrate carbon
202. The Ten Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
10. Work with other nations
to accelerate global progress
203. 65%
of British Columbians want a commitment to
phase out coal, oil and gas, replacing them
with renewable energy.
Oracle Poll, November 2015
204. 73 %
of British Columbians want to see a legally
enforced cap or limits on carbon pollution.
Oracle Poll, November 2015
205. 75%
of British Columbians think protecting the
climate is more important than building
pipelines and further developing the tar sands.
Oracle Poll, November 2015
206. 92%of British Columbians
want to see a plan
to develop jobs in
the renewable energy
sector.
Oracle Poll, November 2015
209. So how are
we going to
do this?
So how are
we going to
do this?
210. It will take everyone – you, me,
non-profits, schools, colleges,
governments, businesses, banks,
- and global cooperation
219. For example:
•Revenue-neutral carbon tax, rising each year, balanced by
tax reductions
•Revenue positive carbon tax, income to climate solutions
•Carbon fee and dividend, everyone gets an annual cheque
•Carbon cap-and-trade, caps for industry, trading for carbon
allowances
221. For example:
•Auto-emissions – eg zero emissions (eg all EVs) by 2030
•Electricity – eg zero coal-fired by 2025, gas-fired by 2030
•Low carbon fuel standard applied to freight
•Biofuel sustainability regulations, incl upstream emissions
•Industry – declining GHGs emissions per unit of output,
exemptions for export-vulnerable industries
•Coal, oil and gas production emissions caps
•All new buildings energy net-zero (Passive House) by 2025
•All condos mandatory efficiency audits and retrofits
227. Think of the Age of Fossil Fuels as the
LAUNCH RAMP
for the Solar Age
30,000 years
Firewood
300 years
Fossil Fuels
Science
Engineering
Enlightenment
Two billion years
Solar Energy
228. The Sun will not begin to turn
into a Red Giant for more than
a billion years,
and with every passing year,
solar technologies will improve
and fall in price.
229. Neolithic Era
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
The last 10,000 yearsThe last 10,000 years
232. Neolithic Era
Ancient Egypt
Roman Empire
Islamic Golden Age
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
The Age of Fossil Fuels
The last 10,000 yearsThe last 10,000 years
233. Neolithic Era
Ancient Egypt
Roman Empire
Islamic Golden Age
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
The Age of Fossil Fuels
……………………………………….
The next
1,000,000,000 years
The next
1,000,000,000 years
The Solar Age
252. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
If phased out by 2040: 22,000 jobs
disappear each year.
If phased out by 2050: 16,000 jobs
disappear each year.
555,000
Direct and Indirect
Fossil Fuel Jobs
253. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
Where will the new jobs be?
1.Renewable Electricity
2.Building Retrofits
3.Railway Electrification
4.Cycling
5.Electric Vehicles
6.Transit
7.Farming
If by 2040:
Can they create 22,000 new jobs a year?
If by 2050:
Can they create 16,000 new jobs year?
326. 10,000 lives could be saved and 76,600 job opportunities
created if people in major European cities cycled
as much as they do in Copenhagen.
World Health Organization, 2014
327. 655,000 people work in cycling in the EU, most in cycle
tourism. If cycling’s modal share were doubled, more
than 400,000 new jobs could be created.
Cycling has a higher employment intensity per million of
turnover than other transport sectors.
332. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
Year 1 Year 25
1% Trip Share 160 jobs 4,000 jobs
25% Trip Share 4,000 jobs 103,000 jobs
12.5% Trip Share 2,000 jobs 50,000 jobs
344. Transit Expansion Jobs
Installation Jobs Operational Jobs
Year 1 28,000 13,000
Year 25 28,000 338,000
Extrapolated for all of urban Canada from the
Metro Vancouver Mayors’ Transportation Plan
378. I M A G I N E
An Electric Vehicles
Climate Solutions Treaty
40 nations agree to
A Zero Emissions Standard
for all new cars by 2025
All light trucks by 2030
414. Solar on a Condo, Victoria, BC
www.bcsea.org/solar-on-strata
415. Average BC home electricity per year
Using baseboard heat: 20,000 kWh
Using gas heat: 11,000 kWh
LED lights, super efficient: 5,000 kWh
4 kW solar system: 4,400 kWh
417. Solar Economics in BC (1)
4 kW @ $4.00 per watt
13 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase
3% finance
4 kW + tax $16,800
3% finance $24,000
kWh per year 4,400
Hydro savings pa $572 and rising
Cost per year $960
418. Solar Economics in BC (1)
4 kW @ $4.00 per watt
13 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase
3% finance
Cost per year $960
Savings per year 2016: $572
2020: $695
2025: $887
2030: $1132
419. Solar Economics in BC (2)
4 kW @ $2.70 per watt
13 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase
3% finance
4 kW + tax $11,340
3% finance $16,200
kWh per year 4,400
Hydro savings pa $572 and rising
Cost per year $648
420. Solar Economics in BC (2)
4 kW @ $2.70 per watt
13 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase
3% finance
Cost per year: $648
Savings per year 2016: $572
2020: $695
2025: $887
2030: $1132
421. Average EV: 18 kWh per 100 km
20,000 km = 3,600 kWh a year
3,600 kWh a year = 3.3 kW PV
453. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
Installation Operation/Maintenance
Per Year Year 1 Year 25
Solar 101,000 1,700 42,000
Wind 29,000 700 15,000
Geothermal 15,000 600 14,000
TOTAL 145,000 3,000 71,000
454. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
Canada Electricity Demand 2014
511 TWh
Canada Electricity Demand 2040
750 TWh
Canada Renewable Electricity 2013
330 TWh
New Renewables Needed by 2040
420 TWh
456. BUILDINGS
Zero emissions for all new buildings starting in 2020.
Zero emissions from existing buildings by 2040.
Nationwide program to retrofit every building
for energy efficiency and renewable energy.
458. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
Building Retrofit Jobs
90% of
buildings
$ investment
per building
$
billion per
year
Jobs per
year
Residential 11,250,000 $10,000 $4.5 67,500
C & I 432,000 $50,000 $1.7 25,500
Total 93,000
Total, assuming 90% of buildings
93,000 jobs a year
459. Canada, population 35 million
500
6.6 73,000 26,000
Canada-wide
1.75
A very approximate sense of Canada’s gain
blog.floridaenergycenter.org
471. Marstal, on the Danish island of Aero
100% solar district heat + 23.4 MWth solar thermal storage
+ Biomass cogeneration plant
Stored Solar District Heat
472. Six Sources of Renewable Heat
Air-source heat Ground-source heat Stored solar heat
Biomass/Biogas Heat exchange ventilator Dog-source heat
473. Where cars dominates, people connect less.
Less sense of neighbourhood.
Less mutual support.
484. Energy positive homes. High-yield organic food production.
Mixed renewable energy and storage. Water and waste
recycling. Empowerment of local communities.
489. ALBERTA OIL SANDS
Plan Zero by 2040 into all NEB decisions.
Freeze production at current level.
Deny licenses for all new pipelines.
Close down the last oil sands operation by 2040.
Firm up requirements for boreal forest restoration.
491. Organic yields match conventional yields.
Organic outperforms conventional in years of drought.
Organic farming uses 45% less energy.Conventional systems
produce 40% more greenhouse gases.Organic farming is
more profitable than conventional.
Rodale Institute, 30-year trials.
504. The five fundamental solutions
to the climate crisis
tithe climate crisis
1. 100% renewable energy
2. No more industrial meat
3. Restore Earth’s forests
4. Eco-sequestrate carbon
5. A restorative economy
505. The five fundamental solutions
to the climate crisis
tothe climate crisis
1. 100% renewable energy
2. No more industrial meat
3. Restore Earth’s forests
4. Eco-sequestrate carbon
5. A restorative economy
513. In the Pacific Northwest, at its maximum, a 160-year
rotation cycle will store 590 tonnes of carbon per hectare,
compared to 363 tonnes in a 490-year cycle.
514. In the Pacific Northwest, at its maximum, a 160-year
rotation cycle will store 590 tonnes of carbon per hectare,
compared to 363 tonnes in a 490-year cycle.
+ 1 Gt of carbon a year
522. The transition from a capitalist economy
to a green, entrepreneurial cooperative economy
could be one of the defining achievements
of the 21st
century.
538. Chapter 11 allows corporations to sue governments
if they feel they have not been treated as a domestic
company would be treated.
539. After Obama rejected the Keystone Pipeline,
TransCanada filed a $15 billion lawsuit under NAFTA.
540. Where will the money come from?
1. Private & Utility Investors
2. Carbon taxes and pricing
3. Climate Bonds
4. Public Banking Credit Creation
5. Green Quantitative Easing
548. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps
549. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax
• Carbon Rationing
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps
550. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax
• Carbon Rationing
• All new cars EV by 2025
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps
551. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax
• Carbon Rationing
• All new cars EV by 2025
• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps
552. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax
• Carbon Rationing
• All new cars EV by 2025
• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020
• Widespread local mobilization
• Huge local food initiative
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps
553. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax
• Carbon Rationing
• All new cars EV by 2025
• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020
• Widespread local mobilization
• Huge local food initiative
• Tax on meat and dairy
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps
554. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax
• Carbon Rationing
• All new cars EV by 2025
• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020
• Widespread local mobilization
• Huge local food initiative
• Tax on meat and dairy
• Solar electrification of railways
• Rapid transition to 100% Renewable Energy
• All coal-fired power plants shut down by 2018
• All gas-fired power plants shut down by 2025
• All fossil fuel exports ended… and a whole lot more
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps
555. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax
• Carbon Rationing
• All new cars EV by 2025
• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020
• Widespread local mobilization
• Huge local food initiative
• Tax on meat and dairy
• Solar electrification of railways
• Rapid transition to 100% Renewable Energy
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps
556. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax
• Carbon Rationing
• All new cars EV by 2025
• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020
• Widespread local mobilization
• Huge local food initiative
• Tax on meat and dairy
• Solar electrification of railways
• Rapid transition to 100% Renewable Energy
• All coal-fired power plants shut down by 2018
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps
557. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax
• Carbon Rationing
• All new cars EV by 2025
• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020
• Widespread local mobilization
• Huge local food initiative
• Tax on meat and dairy
• Solar electrification of railways
• Rapid transition to 100% Renewable Energy
• All coal-fired power plants shut down by 2018
• All gas-fired power plants shut down by 2025
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps
558. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Price
• Carbon Rationing
• All new cars EV by 2025
• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020
• Widespread local mobilization
• Huge local food initiative
• Tax on meat and dairy
• Solar electrification of railways
• Rapid transition to 100% Renewable Energy
• All coal-fired power plants shut down by 2018
• All gas-fired power plants shut down by 2025
• All fossil fuel exports ended… and a whole lot more
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps