Living on a Renewable Energy Budget - Is it possible to run the global economy entirely on renewable energy?

1. Living on a Renewable Energy Budget Is it possible to run the global economy entirely on renewable energy? Guy Dauncey Victoria, BC, Canada www.earthfuture.com

2. The Four Challenges

3. The Four Challenges

4. The Four Challenges

5. The Four Challenges

6. The Four Challenges

7. G ross D omestic P roduct

8. G ross D epletion of the P lanet

9. In 200 years, we are burning the ancient solar energy that’s been stored as fossil fuels for 300 million years.

10. As we burn the fossil fuels… Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com

11. The carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is rising

12. Carbon dioxide traps

13. Under business as usual: Temperature Increase by 2011: 7ºF (4ºC)

14. Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com The Arctic sea ice is melting

15. Greenland is melting

16. Antarctica is melting

17. The last time the world was 3°C warmer the sea level was 25 metres higher

18. 2 metres 10 metres 18 metres 25 metres

19. If all polar ice melted 70 metres sea-level rise 92 metres 70 metres

20. Will the reality of Peak Oil make the climate crisis go away?

21. The Causes of Climate Change Fossil fuels 53% Farming 32%* Deforestation 17% F gases 9% Cement 3% * * Farming = methane + nitrous oxide

22. The Causes of Climate Change Fossil fuels 53% Farming 32% Deforestation 17% F gases 9% Cement 3% Coal 40% Oil 40% Gas 20%

23. The Causes of Climate Change Fossil fuels 53% Farming 32% Deforestation 17% F gases 9% Cement 3% Coal 40% Oil 40% Gas 20% Oil = 21% of cause of climate change

24. The Causes of Climate Change Fossil fuels 53% Farming 32% Deforestation 17% F gases 9% Cement 3% Coal 40% Oil 40% Gas 20% Oil = 21% of cause of climate change 5% per year oil depletion rate

25. The Causes of Climate Change Fossil fuels 53% Farming 32% Deforestation 17% F gases 9% Cement 3% Coal 40% Oil 40% Gas 20% Oil = 21% of the cause of climate change 5% per year depletion rate = = <1% per year impact on cause of climate change Source: The Climate Challenge, page 29

27. NASA Annual Global Primary Energy Use 140,000 TWh 502 ExaJoules

28. NASA Six Recent Publications Explore the Challenge

29. 2010

30. “ All renewable energy resources provide 3,078 times the current global energy needs” WBGU German Advisory Council on Global Change

31. How Europe can go 100% renewable and phase out dirty energy “ Large-scale integration of renewable electricity in the European grid is both technically and economically feasible with a high level of security of supply, even under the most extreme climatic conditions with low wind and low solar radiation.” 2011

32. Renewable Energy 68% by 2030 99.5% by 2050 Greenpeace, 2011

33. 2011

34. WWF/Ecofys, April 2011

35. May 2011. 1,000 pages, 125 authors 2011

36. Technical Potential: ExaJoules Geothermal: 118 - 1109 Hydropower: 50 - 52 Ocean energy: 7 - 331 Wind onshore: 70 - 450 Wind offshore: 15 - 130 Direct solar: 1,575 - 49,837 Total: 1,728 - 51,909 Global demand 2008: 492

37. Dr. Gregor Czisch physicist and energy systems expert Transnational Renewables Consulting Kassel Germany 2005 English Translation 2011

38. 100% Renewable Electricity Future HVDC Supergrid

39. October 2011

47. Integrates Technology + Policy + Design + Strategy Trans-ideological Transformation, not incrementalism Practice, not theory

48. Ota Solar City, Japan The Power of Renewable Energy

49. Kurzweil- Earth Policy Institute

51. Solar market penetration SOLAR

52. Source: unknown

54. 1850 GW @ 15% = 2,430 TWh/year = 8.7 Exajoules

55. John Farrell 2009 www.energyselfreliantstates.org

56. John Farrell 2009 www.energyselfreliantstates.org

57. 2004 Solar PV 27 10 13 EROI 8

58. Pal Town Ota Solar City, Japan

59. Vauban, Freiburg, Germany

60. BedZED Zero Energy Village, London UK

61. Solar Stadium, Taiwan

62. Solar railway Paris to Amsterdam 16,000 panels 3.4 kilometres 3,300 MWh a year

63. Les Mees, southern France

64. Thin film solar production

65. Thin film solar

66. Transparent solar windows

67. Gemosolar, Seville, Spain

68. Solar Millennium AG Concentrating Solar Thermal Energy

69. 254 sq km = current world electricity use 110 sq km = current European Union use www.trecers.org

70. Wind Energy

71. (1) German Advisory Council on Global Change Wo rld in Transition - Towards Sustainable Energy Systems (2003) Global technical potential for energy production from onshore and offshore wind = 278,000 TWh per year (1,000 EJ) 10-15% could meet the global electricity demand (20,000 TWh) twice over. Excluded: all urban areas, forests, wetlands, nature reserves, glaciers and sand dunes.

72. (2) Stanford University ’s Global Climate and Energy Project 7,500 surface and 500 balloon-launch monitoring stations 13% had average Class 3 wind speed sufficient for economical wind power generation. 20% of this potential could meet global electricity demand (20,000 TWh) 7 times over = 500 EJ

73. Offshore = 6.8 months Onshore = 6.6 months Lifespan 20-30 years EROI = 35 to 55 Energy Balance Analysis

74. GEOTHERMAL US technical potential < 3000 GW = 10 times capacity of all installed coal power plants in US. Baseload power 3,000 GW = 18,000 TWh/year = 64 EJ EROI up to 18 Google, October 26, 2011

75. OIL EROI 20

76. OIL EROI 20 Air Pollution $$

77. OIL EROI 20 Air Pollution $$ Imports costs to economy

78. OIL EROI 20 Air Pollution $$ $$ Imports costs to economy $$ Military Costs

79. OIL EROI 20 Air Pollution $$ $$ Imports costs to economy $$$ Military Costs GLOBAL WARMING DANGER $$$$

80. SOLAR EROI 8-27 No global warming, pollution military or import costs,

81. WIND EROI 35-50 No global warming, pollution military or import costs,

82. GEO THERMAL EROI <18 No global warming, pollution military or import costs,

83. 9 million barrels of oil a day cars and light trucks

84. 8 million barrels oil/day 10% shift to electric bikes 35 mile range

85. 8 million barrels oil/day + Safe Bike Lanes

86. 8 million barrels oil/day + City Bike Sharing Programs

87. 7 million barrels oil/day 15% shift to modern Electric Buses & LRT

88. 7 million barrels oil/day 15% shift to modern Electric buses & LRT + Real-time electronic displays

89. 6 million barrels oil/day 10% shift to easy ride-sharing

90. 3 million barrels oil/day 50% shift to green electric vehicles

91. 0.75 million barrels oil/day 50% Plug-in Hybrid EVs 100 mpg 75% liquid fuel reduction

92. 0.4 million barrels oil/day Ultralight vehicle design 50% fuel need reduction (Mercedes Biome)

93. 0.4 million barrels oil/day + Easy car-sharing

94. 0.4 million barrels oil/day + Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing

95. 0.4 million barrels fuel/day + More walking

96. 0.4 million barrels fuel/day + More teleworking

97. 0.4 million barrels fuel /day Result 95% less liquid fuel needed

98. 0.4 million barrels fuel /day 2nd generation biofuel from wastes

99. 0.4 million barrels fuel /day 3rd generation biofuel from algae

100. 0.4 million barrels fuel /day Result Sustainable Transport with 1/20th liquid fuel impact

101. So what’s needed? What’s holding things up?

108. Every Amazing Human Body 100,000 trillion trillion atoms All self-organized into one coherent whole

109. Every Human Brain 100 billion neurons 100 trillion synapses All self-organized into one coherent whole

110. There are 7 billion of us humans…

111. Can we self-organize ourselves into one peaceful coherent nature-loving sustainable whole…?

113. We have been building our cumulative collective intelligence for millions of years

125. Our technology is the expression of our cumulative collective intelligence

126. Our technology is the expression of our cumulative collective intelligence assisted by energy

127. We have made our recent evolutionary journey over ten million years

128. We have made our total evolutionary journey on Earth over 4.5 billion years

129. We have 5 billion years ahead of us before the Sun runs out of fuel and becomes a black dwarf

130. Five billion years We are here 4.5 billion past 5 billion future

131. Five billion years We are here 4.5 billion past 5 billion future This is the potential miracle that awaits us

132. Firewood 1.5 million years Cumulative Intelligence The Carbon Years…

133. The Carbon Years could be seen as the launch-ramp… Firewood 1.5 million years Cumulative Intelligence Fossil Fuels 200 years

134. … for the Solar Years Firewood 1.5 million years Cumulative Intelligence Fossil Fuels 200 years Renewable Energy 5 billion years

135. … for the Solar Years Renewable Energy - 5 billion years

136. That can last … sustainably … forever………..

139. Guy Dauncey www.earthfuture.com