Foundations for a Future Orientation

Foundations for Strategic Foresight
Overview

“Acting while there is still a choice.”
–Bertrand de Jouvenal

“Planning from the future back to the present”
–Marsh, McAllum & Purcell

“Internal and external factors or trends that
will impact the institution.”
–McFarland & Moore, 2003

Identifying Driving Forces
S
T
E
E
P
ocial
echnological
nvironmental
conomic
olitical

Scenario:
“The description of a possible future and the
corresponding path to it.”
‒ Michel Godet

Get them to question their

Our Assumptions Encase us …
in the Past.

Assumption #1:
It’s impossible.

It’s irrelevant.
Assumption # 3:

Is it like a Hollywood movie?

Or more like an
interactive
video game?

“Has God put us here as contrarians, to
languish in discontent until the world ends?
Or has God placed us at the very heart and
soul of civilization to bring forth an entirely
different future, one that has never before
been possible, through the power of Christ's
Cross and Resurrection?”
–Christian Futurist, Jay Gary, 2003

“The constructive forces that can keep afloat in
the turbulent waters of globalization are those
whose gaze is fixed firmly on the future rather
than the past; those forces, in
other words, that regard opening
themselves up to the future as a
core element in their identity and
not as a threat.”
–Athanasios N. Papathanasiou, 2004

“The only useful knowledge we have
relates to the future.”
– Bertrand de Jouvenel

The choices we make and the
attitudes with which we approach life
affect the path.

• Not predictions
• Qualitative research
• No more than 4
• Used to multiply options

A tool that projects cause and effect
relationships between a driving force and
the changes that could ripple out from it.

Participants discuss with their group the driving
forces listed in a “Driving Forces” handout.
After reading each description, they choose one
driving force that their group wants to explore.

Participants draw a circle in the middle of their
poster. The wheel begins with this circle where
they write their group's selected driving force.

Participants are
encouraged to think about
the consequences that
might flow from that
driving force. What will
likely be the effects of this
driving force?

Participants select one first-
order effect for
brainstorming. What is likely
to happen as a result?
Continue this process until all
three first-order effects have
two second-order effects.

Repeat the procedure to get two third-order
effects for each second-order effect. When the
participants are done, their diagram should have
22 circles.

Participants are
encouraged to discuss
with their group any
conclusions or overall
lessons learned. They
should jot these down
so they can share
them with the larger
group.

• Organize and synthesize

• Uncover the layers of change

• Explore consequences

• Generate creative ideas

• Anticipate unforeseen consequences

• Test ideas before implementation

• Test ideas before implementation
• Create scenarios everyone can understand

“Would that they were wise, that they
understood this, that they would discern their
future!” – Deuteronomy 32:29

For more information, please contact . . .
Dr. Greg Waddell
Email: DrGregWaddell@LeadStrategic.com
Blog: http://www.LeadStrategic.com/
Twtter: @DrGregWaddell
FB: DrGregWaddell

Third
Order
Effects
How to Do
a Futures Wheel
OTHER FORECASTING TOOLS
• Environmental scanning
• Scenario analysis
• Cross-impact matrices
• Delphic surveys
• Strategic Planning
• Modeling
• QUEST
• Simulation
• Brainstorming
• Historical analogy
Second
Order
Effects
First
Order
Effects
WAR
DISASTERS
COUPS
MEDICAL
DISCOVERIE
S
Include some
wild cards
Go 10,
20, or 30
years out
Dr. Gregory S. Waddell
greg@envoycm.org
www.SpiritOfOrganization.com
Use colored
markers to indicate
serious threats and
promising
opportunities
Adapted from Coates, J. (2004). How to do a futures study. Washington, DC: Joseph Coates Consulting Futurist, Inc.

Works Cited
Dahle, K. (2003). “55 Key Works: A Guide to Futures Literature.” In R. A. Slaughter
(Ed.), Knowledge Base of Futures Studies CD-ROM (Vol. 1,). Queensland,
Australia: Foresight International.
de Jouvenel, B. (1972). “On the nature of the future.” In A. Toffler (Ed.), The Futurists
(pp. 277-83). NY: Random House.
Marsh, N., McAllum, M., & Purcell, D. (2002). “Why Strategic Foresight?” In The
Power of Standing in the Future. Victoria, Australia: Crown Content.
McFarland, D., & Moore, J. (2003). Stakeholder's Conference on Strategic Planning.
Arkansas State University. Accessed October 16, 2005 from
http://asunews.astate.edu/Oct%2020%202003%20Stakeholders%20Conf.htm
Michel Godet Cited in Dahle, K. (2003). “55 Key Works: A Guide to Futures
Literature.” In R. A. Slaughter (Ed.), Knowledge Base of Futures Studies CD-ROM
(Vol. 1,). Queensland, Australia: Foresight International.
Papathanasiou, A. N. (2004). “Anchored in the future, Globalization and church
consciousness: An orthodox perspective.” The Ecumenical Review, 56(2), 226-233.

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