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July 1, 2010
The Outlook for the Las Vegas Locals Casino Market
Economic Challenges Dominate the Environment
Gregg Carlson
Advisor
702.506.0475 x540
gcarlson@apertorhospitality.com
©2010 Apertor Hospitality, LLC.
All Rights Reserved.
2. 2
Overview
„ Recent commentary regarding the Las Vegas economy „ Based on data we have analyzed and antedoctal evidence we have
is mixed as some commentators point to a near term collected in Las Vegas, we believe that optimism of a significant
recovery, while others point to a lack of recovery. near–term recovery in the Las Vegas locals market is premature.
„ Boyd Gaming (Boyd) recently forecasted a near term recovery in „ Our view is that the locals market is highly dependent
the Las Vegas locals market, pointing to recent improvements on overall conditions in the local economy in a way that
in headline national economic metrics including, consumer is only partially influenced by the Las Vegas Strip.
confidence, consumer spending, and new home sales, as
well as Las Vegas visitor volume. Boyd pointed to improving „ Our view is that a locals casino market recovery is dependent
trends in their Las Vegas locals business and forecasted y/y upon a local economic recovery that stimulates job and
growth in the 2nd half of 2010. Boyd essentially make’s population growth, as well as improvement in the local housing
case that near-term improvement on the Las Vegas Strip market. We also believe the locals market is significantly
will positively impact their Las Vegas locals franchise. influenced by trends in retiree population growth as the
market is highly dependent upon the 55+ age group.
„ MGM continues to make the Las Vegas Strip recovery
case based on the assertion that trends in their group „ As a result of poor near and intermediate term prospects for
business bookings are improving in the back half of 2010 job and population growth and ongoing negative issues in the
into 2011. According to Boyd, this recovery would help local housing market, we are not predicting a near term recovery
their business recover in the Las Vegas locals market. in the Las Vegas economy and therefore the locals gaming
market. We also believe that the significant historic driver of 55+
„ On the other hand, commentary made by the Nevada Department population growth is not present in the current environment.
of Employment Training and Rehabilitation (DETR) suggests
that while the worst of the recession may be over, Nevada „ We therefore believe that recovery in the market
continues down a long bumpy road to economic recovery. will be bumpy, slow and protracted.
„ The most recent readings of UNLV’s leading local economic
indicators also provide no visibility for improvement in
the Las Vegas economy over the next six months.
©2010 Apertor Hospitality, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
3. 3
Las Vegas Locals Market Major Properties At 12/31/09
Dimensioning the market Property Slots Tables
Total
positions
Market
Share
BOYD
The Orleans 2,812 60 2,872 5.2%
„ The Las Vegas locals market is one of the largest gaming Sam’s Town 2,370 30 2,400 4.3%
markets in the U.S., generally ranked behind the Las Vegas Suncoast 2,217 36 2,253 4.1%
Gold Coast 2,058 49 2,107 3.8%
Strip and Atlantic City based on gaming revenue.
Jokers Wild Casino 484 7 491 0.9%
„ The market is dominated by 26 properties. At Boyd Subtotal 9,941 182 10,123 18.2%
12/31/09, approximately 60% of the gaming positions STATION
are controlled by Boyd (18% within 5 properties) Red Rock Station 2,989 64 3,053 5.5%
and Station (41% within 10 properties). Sante Fe Station 2,825 47 2,872 5.2%
Boulder Station 2,749 41 2,790 5.0%
„ The most recent significant additions to the market include, Green Valley Ranch 2,392 55 2,447 4.4%
South Point - 2005, Red Rock Station - 2006, Eastside Sunset Station 2,463 41 2,504 4.5%
Aliente Station 2,013 44 2,057 3.7%
Cannery - 2008, Aliante - 2008 and M Resort -2009.
Texas Station 1,994 31 2,025 3.6%
Palace Station 1,722 46 1,768 3.2%
„ Overall revenue in the market declined in 2009 on a y/y basis Fiesta Henderson 1,628 19 1,647 3.0%
despite the supply increases that occurred in late 2008 to early Fiesta Rancho 1,412 16 1,428 2.6%
2009 associated with the Aliante Station and M Resort openings. Station Subtotal 22,187 404 22,591 40.7%
BOYD & STATION subtotal 32,128 586 32,714 58.9%
„ Historically the Las Vegas locals market market has been
driven by general population and consumer spending OTHER MAJOR PROPERTIES
growth tied to the Las Vegas Strip, real estate and South Point 2,270 71 2,341 4.2%
construction growth as well as an influx of retirees. Silverton 2,221 35 2,256 4.1%
Cannery Casino 2,010 37 2,047 3.7%
„ Boyd and Station have traditionally dominated the market. Eastside Cannery 1,963 25 1,988 3.6%
M Resort 1,893 72 1,965 3.5%
Rampart Casino 1,265 28 1,293 2.3%
„ The most recent property openings were bets on the Arizona’s Charlie’s - Decatur 1,200 12 1,212 2.2%
growth of rooftops in the immediate surrounding areas. Arizona Charlie’s - Boulder 1,000 12 1,012 1.8%
Rooftop growth currently does not exist. There is little Terrible’s LV 960 9 969 1.7%
visibility that housing construction will commence in Jerry’s Nugget 728 9 737 1.3%
a significant way for the foreseeable future as a whole Club Fortune 560 12 572 1.0%
or in areas that support recent property additions. OTHER MAJOR PROPERTIES subtotal 48,198 908 49,106 88.4%
Other properties 6,357 111 6,468 11.6%
Total 54,555 1,019 55,574 100.0%
Source: Company filings and Nevada Gaming Commission
©2010 Apertor Hospitality, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
4. 000 omitted
$2,600,000
$2,800,000
$3,000,000
$3,200,000
$3,400,000
$3,600,000
$3,800,000
Jan 06
Feb 06
Mar 06
Apr 06
May 06
Jun 06
Jul 06
Aug 06
Sep 06
Oct 06
Nov 06
Source: Nevada Gaming Commission, Apertor Hospitality
Dec 06
Jan 07
Feb 07
Mar 07
Apr 07
May 07
Jun 07
Jul 07
Aug 07
Sep 07
Oct 07
Nov 07
Dec 07
Jan 08
Total slot volume
Feb 08
Mar 08
Apr 08
May 08
Jun 08
Jul 08
Aug 08
Sep 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Volume continues to decline as the “great recession” swamps the industry
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Sep 09
Oct 09
Nov 09
Dec 09
Jan 10
Feb 10
Mar 10
Apr 10
4
©2010 Apertor Hospitality, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
5. 5
Core industry metrics plummet on a y/y basis
Daily volume per slot - negatively impacted since late 2008
$2.5
$2.4
$2.3
$2.2
$2.1
$'s in thousands
$2.0
2006
$1.9
2007
$1.8 2008
2009
$1.7 2010
$1.6
$1.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Nevada Gaming Commission, Apertor Hospitality
©2010 Apertor Hospitality, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
6. 6
National and local economic trends severely impact the locals gaming market
„ The largest industry in terms of local employment is the „ Forecasts we have viewed indicate that Las Vegas employment
gaming industry, followed by retail, government, construction conditions will not likely improve until 2012 or later tied
and health care. During 2008 these industries employed to an overall improvement in the U.S. economy, forecasted
68% of the total workforce in Las Vegas as follows: improved conditions on the Las Vegas Strip and improvement
− gaming 29%, retail 11%, government 11%, in the U.S. housing market, among other factors.
construction 10% and health care 7%.
„ While the worst may be over in the local housing market,
risks remain, owing to the ongoing high unemployment
„ Broad based employment declines have occurred in the gaming, rate, negative loan to value and an overhang tied to
retail and construction industries. Government employment is potential mortgage resets over the next two years.
set to decline as well due to local government budget issues.
„ Residential construction in Las Vegas is expected to
„ Prior to the recession, spending in the locals market was remain non-existent for the foreseeable future owing
also driven by the significant increase in housing values. to a variety of negative economic factors as well as
During 2008 and 2009, the housing market collapsed and a significant overhang of foreclosed houses.
housing-driven consumer spending declined as well.
„ Government emergency home ownership programs (i.e.
„ The housing market collapse and significant volume declines on HAMP) could help the local housing market some. So far we
the Las Vegas Strip now places Las Vegas near the top of negative believe the impact from these programs has been minimal.
economic statistics in terms of unemployment (currently near Local forecasters do not expect these programs to turn
14%) and housing negative loan to value (approximately 80%). the Las Vegas residential real estate market around.
©2010 Apertor Hospitality, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
7. 7
Las Vegas locals gaming revenue declined during the recession
$3.0
$2.5
$2.0
$1.5
$’s in billions
$1.0
$0.5
$0.0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Nevada Gaming Commission
„ The locals market consistently grew along with the overall growth
of the Las Vegas economy and then collapsed during the recession.
©2010 Apertor Hospitality, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
8. 8
……While supply increased just prior to and during the recession
LV locals market number of gaming devices
60,000
55,000
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Nevada Gaming Commission
„ Capacity grew along with the growth of the local economy. „ There has been a significant increase in major property
supply since 2006 tied to the Aliante Station, Eastside
Cannery, M Resort, Red Rock and South Point openings.
©2010 Apertor Hospitality, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
9. 9
Win per slot declined in face of new supply
$120
$110
$100
$90
$80
$70
$60
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Nevada Gaming Commission, Apertor Hospitality
„ The market is primarily a slot market as slot revenue is the
largest revenue source in a typical Las Vegas locals casino
operation. Slot win per unit has significantly declined since
2007 due to the recession and overall supply increase.
©2010 Apertor Hospitality, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
10. 10
Population declined in 2009 after years of growth
Clark County population
2,000,000
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
1980
1981
1982
1983
1985
1986
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2005
2006
2008
2009
1984
1987
1994
1997
2004
2007
Source: UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research
„ After years of increases, the population declined during
2009 due to the recession. This was the first decline
since 1980 (the period we tracked in our research).
©2010 Apertor Hospitality, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
11. 11
Local personal income declined in 2009
Total personal income LV locals gaming revenue ($'s in billions)
$90,000 $3.0
$80,000
$2.5
$70,000
$60,000 $2.0
$50,000
$1.5
$40,000
$30,000 $1.0
$20,000
$0.5
$10,000
$0 $0.0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research, Nevada Gaming Commission and Apertor Hospitality
„ The decline in locals gaming revenue preceded the
decline in personal income as the locals market has
proven to be susceptible to the recession.
©2010 Apertor Hospitality, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
12. 12
Housing permits fall below 1980s levels
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
0
81
82
83
85
86
88
89
90
91
92
93
95
96
98
99
00
01
02
03
05
06
08
09
84
87
94
97
04
07
8
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
20
20
Source: UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research
„ The housing market is a significant driver of the local economy. „ Our local contacts suggest that national builder local land
After years of increases tied to market growth, housing permits acquisition activity has increased some. At the same time, a
plummeted during the recession. During 2009, issued permits fell significant amount of shadow inventory exists in bank REO activity.
below the 1982 level (the lowest level of the period we tracked
between 1980 and 2009). Recent 2010 monthly permitting activity „ Construction activity and employment are not
has improved over 2009, but remains at overall low levels. expected to return for several years.
©2010 Apertor Hospitality, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
13. 13
Las Vegas employment trends have been negative since 2008
employment unemployment rate
16% 950,000
14%
900,000
12%
850,000
10%
800,000
8%
750,000
6%
700,000
4%
650,000
2%
0% 600,000
Jul 01
Jul 07
Jul 08
Jul 09
Jan 00
Apr 00
Jul 00
Oct 00
Jan 01
Apr 01
Oct 01
Jan 02
Apr 02
Jul 02
Oct 02
Jan 03
Apr 03
Jul 03
Oct 03
Jan 04
Apr 04
Jul 04
Oct 04
Jan 05
Apr 05
Jul 05
Oct 05
Jan 06
Apr 06
Jul 06
Oct 06
Jan 07
Apr 07
7-Oct
Jan 08
Apr 08
Oct 08
Jan 09
Apr 09
Oct 09
Jan 10
Apr 10
Source: UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research, DETR and Apertor Hospitality
„ Employment consistently grew in each and „ Employment in the construction industry declined approximately
every year between 1980 and 2007. 60% on a peak to trough basis between 2006 and 2010.
„ Employment reached a peak in 2008 and has subsequently declined. „ Employment in the gaming industry on the Las Vegas Strip
and Downtown Las Vegas declined approximately 13%
on a peak to trough basis between 2006 and 2010.
©2010 Apertor Hospitality, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
14. 14
…..Las Vegas employment trends continue to decline into 2010
employment unemployment rate
920,000 16%
14%
900,000
12%
880,000
10%
860,000 8%
6%
840,000
4%
820,000
2%
800,000 0%
Jan 08
Feb 08
Mar 08
Apr 08
May 08
Jun 08
Jul 08
Aug 08
Sep 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Sep 09
Oct 09
Nov 09
Dec 09
Jan 10
Feb 10
Mar 10
Apr 10
Source: DETR and Apertor Hospitality
„ Recent monthly data points remain extremely negative. „ We estimate that the actual unemployment rate is
approximately 20% as the published rate does not
include discouraged and under-employed workers.
©2010 Apertor Hospitality, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
15. 15
Negative Las Vegas employment trends hurt gaming revenues
employment LV locals gaming revenue ($'s in billions)
1,000,000 $3.0
900,000
$2.5
800,000
700,000
$2.0
600,000
500,000 $1.5
400,000
$1.0
300,000
200,000
$0.5
100,000
- $0.0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research, Nevada Gaming Commission and Apertor Hospitality
©2010 Apertor Hospitality, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
16. 16
Negative Las Vegas employment trends hurt gaming revenues (continued)
„ Forecasts by the DETR suggest that there will be „ The March 2010 employment data point
no employment growth during 2010. declined by 5.7% on a y/y basis.
„ Virtually all major industry sectors have significantly decreased „ The most recent unemployment rate (April 2010) reached an all time
employee headcounts. The gaming industry has aggressively high for the period we reviewed (the year 2000 forward) suggesting
reduced headcounts and has indicated that they plan to that employment conditions in Las Vegas remain challenged.
minimize headcount increases in the face of a recovery.
„ The most recent April 2010 locals gaming market data
„ Our polling of local major employers suggests that the citywide point continued to be negative on a y/y basis.
hiring freeze remains intact in all major industry sectors.
„ The bottom line is that substantial ongoing negative
„ The shoe that is in the process of dropping is government. employment issues will continue to negatively
State and local budget deficits will continue to play a big role affect gaming spend in the locals market.
in reducing the headcount in this sector going forward.
„ Local researchers suggest that employment conditions
will not meaningfully improve until 2013 based on an
overall improvement in the local economy that will
depend on and lag a national economic recovery.
©2010 Apertor Hospitality, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
17. „
Case Shiller Index
100
150
200
250
300
50
0
January 1987
July 1987
January 1988
July 1988
January 1989
Source: Case Shiller Index
July 1989
January 1990
July 1990
January 1991
July 1991
January 1992
CA-Los Angeles
July 1992
January 1993
July 1993
on a peak to trough basis between 2006 and 2010.
After years of stability, the Las Vegas housing market
January 1994
and 2010. Housing values declined approximately 55%
experienced a significant boom and bust between 2003
July 1994
January 1995
July 1995
January 1996
July 1996
January 1997
Las Vegas housing market boomed and went bust
July 1997
January 1998
July 1998
„
January 1999
NV-Las Vegas
July 1999
January 2000
July 2000
January 2001
July 2001
January 2002
July 2002
January 2003
July 2003
January 2004
July 2004
meaningful signs of improvement.
Recent data points have yet to show
January 2005
July 2005
January 2006
CA-San Diego
July 2006
January 2007
July 2007
January 2008
July 2008
January 2009
July 2009
January 2010
17
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18. 18
Housing market distress negatively impacts locals market
Y/Y Shiller Las Vegas housing index y/y locals gaming revenue
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
2007 2008 2009
0%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
Source: Case Shiller Index, Nevada Gaming Commission and Apertor Hospitality
„ Gaming revenue significantly declined during 2008 „ Our research suggests that part of the locals market gaming
and 2009 along with local housing values. revenue decline was directly and indirectly tied to a negative
housing value adjustment that occurred during 2008 and 2009.
Our regression analysis suggests that approximately 60% of
overall U.S. consumer spending may be explained by changes in
housing values on an approximate one year lag basis. The local
trend appears to be aligned with this national research finding.
©2010 Apertor Hospitality, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
19. 19
Housing market distress negatively impacts locals market (continued)
„ Based on our research and discussions with local real estate „ Southern Nevada also faces ARM mortgage reset risk
professionals and researchers, we expect the recovery over the next 24 months as approximately 30% of
in local housing market to be weak and protracted, Nevada Alt-A ARM loans are subject to reset.
extending over a multi-year period of time pending
an improvement in the employment outlook. „ Data supplied by the New York Federal Reserve suggests
that the Clark County 90 day delinquency rate was
„ Current estimates suggest that 70% to 80% of homes located in well above the national average at 12/31/09.
Las Vegas are in a negative loan to value position. At 12/31/09
the Las Vegas region had an aggregate 133% negative loan to
value, one of the highest rates in the U.S. High negative loan
to value relationships tend to increase the foreclosure rate.
©2010 Apertor Hospitality, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
20. 20
Southern California housing market premium that drove Las Vegas
migration was eliminated during the recession
Southern CA Home Prices Las Vegas New Home Prices Annual population growth
$600 10%
$500 8%
$400 6%
$'s in thousands
$300 4%
$200 2%
$100 0%
$0 -2%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research, Station Casinos 2008 investor presentation and Apertor Hospitality.
Note: Southern CA home prices are based on a weighted average of Southern California 5 County new and existing home prices
©2010 Apertor Hospitality, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
21. 21
Southern California housing market premium that drove Las Vegas
migration was eliminated during the recession (continued)
„ California is the number one point of origin for Las Vegas „ The premium has significantly shrunk since 2007
retirees at 31% of total retirees which is approximately and now approximates 2001 levels.
5x greater than the 2nd ranked state, Arizona.
„ We believe this is a negative influence on California retiree
„ Las Vegas population growth has long been migration and population growth to Las Vegas looking forward.
influenced by retiree migration.
„ While the premium has recently expanded some, most of the
„ Between 2001 and 2007, a large premium developed recent increase is attributable to ongoing decreases in Las Vegas
between Southern California and Las Vegas home values in home values, which we view as a negative population driver.
spite of the strong increase in Las Vegas home values.
„ Migration to Las Vegas has also been negatively impacted by
„ This premium, low taxes and other factors, drove retiree population near retirees that have postponed retirement due to economic
growth as Southern California residents in retirement or nearing stress and inability to sell their residence in their home market.
retirement cashed out of homes in Southern California and acquired
homes in Las Vegas with lesser debt levels/higher equity levels.
©2010 Apertor Hospitality, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
22. 22
LV Locals Market impacted by negative population and income growth
y/y total personal income y/y locals gaming revenue y/y change in population
20%
15%
10%
2008
5%
2009
0%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-5%
-10%
Source: UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research, Nevada Gaming Commission and Apertor Hospitality
„ The chart shows that the Las Vegas locals market
has contracted along with negative changes in
personal income and population trends.
©2010 Apertor Hospitality, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
23. 23
LV locals market impacted by negative population and income growth (continued)
population growth + per capita income growth locals gaming revenue growth
20%
15%
10%
2008
5%
2009
0%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-5%
-10%
Source: UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research, Nevada Gaming Commission and Apertor Hospitality
„ The Las Vegas locals market has been defined as a derivative of „ We believe the 2008 to 2009 locals market gaming
the combination of population and per capita income growth. revenue decline was also influenced by a significant
The relationship between population plus per capita income decline in local housing values during this period.
growth and locals gaming market spending (revenue) growth
was strong between 1996 to 2007 and then weakened during
2008 and 2009 as locals gaming growth significantly declined.
©2010 Apertor Hospitality, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
24. 24
LV locals market impacted by negative per capita income
per capita income (left axis) Gaming spend per person (right axis)
45,000 $1,600
40,000 $1,400
35,000
$1,200
30,000
$1,000
25,000
$800
20,000
$600
15,000
$400
10,000
5,000 $200
- $0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research, Nevada Gaming Commission and Apertor Hospitality
„ The Las Vegas economy and locals market declined from a per
capita income and spend vantage point as the decline in gaming
spend per person preceded the decline in per capita income.
©2010 Apertor Hospitality, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
25. 25
Per capita gaming spend also declined at a greater rate than per capita income
y/y change in gaming spend per person y/y change in per capita income
15%
10%
5%
2009
0%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008
2001 2007
-5%
-10%
-15%
Source: UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research, Nevada Gaming Commission and Apertor Hospitality
„ During 2008 and 2009, per capita gaming spend declined at a
greater rate than per capita income as the recession intensified.
©2010 Apertor Hospitality, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
26. 26
Taxable sales head south from 2006 peak to current trough
$3.6
$3.4
$3.2
$3.0
$’s in billions
$2.8
$2.6
$2.4
$2.2
$2.0
6
7
6
07
08
09
6
10
7
8
9
6
7
8
9
0
8
9
6
7
8
9
06
07
08
09
l-0
l-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-1
l-0
l-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
n-
n-
n-
n-
p-
p-
p-
p-
n
ay
ay
ay
ay
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ov
ov
ov
ov
Ju
Ju
Ju
Ju
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Se
Se
Se
Se
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
N
N
N
N
Source: Nevada Department of Taxation
„ Clark county taxable sales have generally been in decline since the
2006 to 2007 peak. Recent numbers remain comparatively weak.
©2010 Apertor Hospitality, LLC. All Rights Reserved.