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the green delusion
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        urbanization
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        10%
              20%
                    30%
                          40%
                                50%
                                      60%
                                            70%
19
  60
19
  62
19
  64
19
  66
19
  68
19
  70
19
  72
19
  74
19
  76
19
  78
19
  80
19
  82
19
  84
19
  86
19
  88
19
  90
19
  92
19
  94
19
  96
19
  98
20
   00
20
   02
20
   04
                                                  urbanization rate of China




20
   06
20
   08
20
   10
20
   12
20
   14
20
   16
20
   18
20
   20
20
   22
20
   24
20
   26
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        +350.000.000

          350 million people will be added to the cities by 2025   source: china statistical yearbook 2009
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    2.000.000.000 m                                               2




        square meters of building are built in China every year
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        cities with more than a million inhabitants in China in 2000
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        221 cities with more than a million inhabitants in China in 2000
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        modernization

          uprgading infrasturcture, improving living conditions,
                       changing social structures
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                       GDP and energy production (1978-2010)


        50000                                                                                                        300000



                                                                                                                     250000
        40000


                                                                                                                     200000

        30000

                                                                                                                     150000


        20000
                                                                                                                     100000


        10000                                                                                                        50000




                                                                                                         08
                                                                             00




                                                                                                  06
                                                                                           04
                                                                                    02
                                           88
                       80




                                                                                                               10
                                                                      98
                                                90
                                      86
                                 84
                            82




                                                                 96
                                                           94
                                                      92
                  78




                                                                           20


                                                                                  20


                                                                                         20


                                                                                                20


                                                                                                       20


                                                                                                              20
                19


                       19


                            19


                                 19


                                      19


                                           19


                                                19


                                                     19


                                                           19


                                                                19


                                                                      19
                 GDP (100 million yuan)     Energy Production (10,000 tons of SCE)




                                      economic growth & energy consumption                                          source: china statistical yearbook 20111
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        Shanghai air
        pollution now the
        worst on record

        Pollution in the southern
        Chinese city of Shanghai has
        reached record levels, pushing
        air quality levels to ‘severe’ or
        ‘hazardous,’ the highest level
        on the Air Quality Index Scale.

                           May 5th 2011




                             source: Shanghai Daily
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                          environmental impact of the building sector




              40%                      30- 40%                                        30%
        of the worlds concrete and     of urban waste come from          of total energy is consumed by
         steel are used in China’s          construction sites                  buildings in China
                construction


                                                                  source: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2010-04/06/content_9687627.htm
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        “Green building will continue its rapid expansion
        globally in 2013 in spite of ongoing economic
        difficulties. More people are building green
        each year, and there is nothing on the horizon
        that will stop this MegaTrend or its constituent
        elements.“
                                   Jerry Yudelson for Sustainable Industries - January 1st 2013
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                            LEED and China 3 Star Projects in China

             300




             200




             100




                       2005     2006   2007   2008   2009   2010          2011

           LEED         2       6       6      14     45      109         194*
        China 3 Star                           10     30      113         297

                                                            *) September 2012: 226
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        7.500.000 m                                           2




          sqm of LEED certified buildings in China in total
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    2.000.000.000 m                                               2




        square meters of building are built in China every year
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        221 cities with more than a million inhabitants in China in 2000
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        green building
        market




                mass market
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                 green building
                 market




                         mass market




        2.000.000.000
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        a green
        mass market
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        “built it and sell it”

           lack of long-term interests in a developer dominated market
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        88%
          of households
        live in self-owned
              housing




            source: economist Intelligence Unit 2012
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                            age of home buyers in China



                               26.2%                                      5.3%
                               30 - 39 years                           40-49 years
        72.5%
        of home buyers
        are between
        20 and 39                                                        14.2%
        years old. The                                                50-59 years
        reason for this
        high number is
        the materialistic
        approach to            46.3%                                      8.0%
        marriage.              20 - 29 years                              60+ years




                                                      source: China Index Academy and sofun http://fdc.soufun.com/report/4930.htm
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                        the Chinese way of life




buy an appartment   get married          buy a car   have a child




                                                       source: china statistical yearbook 2009
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                                                     factors for apartment purchase

                 price                                                                                            49.4 %
                 location                                                              39.3 %
                 transport                                                  33.1 %
                 compound                                                  32.6 %
                 facilities                                 9.9 %
                 apartment type                         7.6 %

                 quality                              6.9 %
                 management                  2.1 %

                 developer                  1.8%
                 others                   0.3 %




energy efficiency is not even in the list, quality is a minor criterium         source: source: China Index Academy and sofun http://fdc.soufun.com/report/4930.htm
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        fast and cheap


                         source: china statistical yearbook 2009
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        building quality
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                                   building durability




            25-30
                years
                                             74
                                             years
                                                                           132
                                                                             years




        “   Our buildings can only stand 25 to 30 years on average.
                                                                      “
                                              Chou Baoxing, vice-minister of MOHURD
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        buildings in China use twice as much energy for heating



                                    source: http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/2011/11/09/building-energy-efficient-homes-for-low-carbon-cities-in-china
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        “Green buildings will continue its rapid
        expansion globally in 2013 in spite of ongoing
        economic difficulties. More people are building
        green each year, and there is nothing on the
        horizon that will stop this MegaTrend or its
        constituent elements.“
                                  Jerry Yudelson for Sustainable Industries - January 1st 2013
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        Technology




               Behavior




                      Design
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        Kunshan
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        source: china statistical yearbook 2009
energy efficiency by design: Kunshan Software Park
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        Jining
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        source: china statistical yearbook 2009
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        Jiaxing
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logon
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        energy efficent design
                   is
            good design
The Green Delusion

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The Green Delusion

  • 2. logon urbanization
  • 3. logon 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 19 60 19 62 19 64 19 66 19 68 19 70 19 72 19 74 19 76 19 78 19 80 19 82 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 urbanization rate of China 20 06 20 08 20 10 20 12 20 14 20 16 20 18 20 20 20 22 20 24 20 26
  • 4. logon +350.000.000 350 million people will be added to the cities by 2025 source: china statistical yearbook 2009
  • 5. logon 2.000.000.000 m 2 square meters of building are built in China every year
  • 6. logon cities with more than a million inhabitants in China in 2000
  • 7. logon 221 cities with more than a million inhabitants in China in 2000
  • 8. logon modernization uprgading infrasturcture, improving living conditions, changing social structures
  • 9.
  • 10. logon GDP and energy production (1978-2010) 50000 300000 250000 40000 200000 30000 150000 20000 100000 10000 50000 08 00 06 04 02 88 80 10 98 90 86 84 82 96 94 92 78 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 GDP (100 million yuan) Energy Production (10,000 tons of SCE) economic growth & energy consumption source: china statistical yearbook 20111
  • 11. logon
  • 12. logon Shanghai air pollution now the worst on record Pollution in the southern Chinese city of Shanghai has reached record levels, pushing air quality levels to ‘severe’ or ‘hazardous,’ the highest level on the Air Quality Index Scale. May 5th 2011 source: Shanghai Daily
  • 13. logon environmental impact of the building sector 40% 30- 40% 30% of the worlds concrete and of urban waste come from of total energy is consumed by steel are used in China’s construction sites buildings in China construction source: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2010-04/06/content_9687627.htm
  • 14. logon
  • 15. logon
  • 16. logon
  • 17. logon “Green building will continue its rapid expansion globally in 2013 in spite of ongoing economic difficulties. More people are building green each year, and there is nothing on the horizon that will stop this MegaTrend or its constituent elements.“ Jerry Yudelson for Sustainable Industries - January 1st 2013
  • 18. logon LEED and China 3 Star Projects in China 300 200 100 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 LEED 2 6 6 14 45 109 194* China 3 Star 10 30 113 297 *) September 2012: 226
  • 19. logon 7.500.000 m 2 sqm of LEED certified buildings in China in total
  • 20. logon 2.000.000.000 m 2 square meters of building are built in China every year
  • 21. logon 221 cities with more than a million inhabitants in China in 2000
  • 22. logon green building market mass market
  • 23. logon green building market mass market 2.000.000.000
  • 24. logon a green mass market
  • 25.
  • 26. logon “built it and sell it” lack of long-term interests in a developer dominated market
  • 27. logon 88% of households live in self-owned housing source: economist Intelligence Unit 2012
  • 28. logon age of home buyers in China 26.2% 5.3% 30 - 39 years 40-49 years 72.5% of home buyers are between 20 and 39 14.2% years old. The 50-59 years reason for this high number is the materialistic approach to 46.3% 8.0% marriage. 20 - 29 years 60+ years source: China Index Academy and sofun http://fdc.soufun.com/report/4930.htm
  • 29. logon the Chinese way of life buy an appartment get married buy a car have a child source: china statistical yearbook 2009
  • 30. logon
  • 31. logon factors for apartment purchase price 49.4 % location 39.3 % transport 33.1 % compound 32.6 % facilities 9.9 % apartment type 7.6 % quality 6.9 % management 2.1 % developer 1.8% others 0.3 % energy efficiency is not even in the list, quality is a minor criterium source: source: China Index Academy and sofun http://fdc.soufun.com/report/4930.htm
  • 32. logon fast and cheap source: china statistical yearbook 2009
  • 33. logon building quality
  • 34. logon
  • 35. logon
  • 36. logon building durability 25-30 years 74 years 132 years “ Our buildings can only stand 25 to 30 years on average. “ Chou Baoxing, vice-minister of MOHURD
  • 37. logon buildings in China use twice as much energy for heating source: http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/2011/11/09/building-energy-efficient-homes-for-low-carbon-cities-in-china
  • 38. logon
  • 39. logon “Green buildings will continue its rapid expansion globally in 2013 in spite of ongoing economic difficulties. More people are building green each year, and there is nothing on the horizon that will stop this MegaTrend or its constituent elements.“ Jerry Yudelson for Sustainable Industries - January 1st 2013
  • 40. logon Technology Behavior Design
  • 41. logon
  • 42. logon Kunshan
  • 43. logon
  • 44. logon source: china statistical yearbook 2009
  • 45. energy efficiency by design: Kunshan Software Park
  • 46. logon
  • 47. logon
  • 48. logon Jining
  • 49. logon
  • 50. logon
  • 51. logon source: china statistical yearbook 2009
  • 52. logon Jiaxing
  • 53. logon
  • 54. logon
  • 55. logon
  • 56. logon
  • 57. logon energy efficent design is good design