The document is a program for an economic outlook luncheon hosted by the Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce on January 15, 2014. It features three panelists - Mr. Dennis Delay, Mr. Charlie Arlinghaus, and Mr. Paul M. Provost - who will discuss New Hampshire economic trends. The document provides background on the panelists and outlines the agenda for presentations on topics like employment, housing market recovery, and forecasts for New Hampshire's economy. Upcoming chamber events are also advertised at the end.
2. Today’s Panelists
Mr. Dennis Delay
Mr. Charlie Arlinghaus
Mr. Paul M. Provost
Economist, NH Center for
Public Policy
President of The Josiah
Bartlett Center
CFP, Senior Vice President
of Merrimack County
Savings Bank
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
2
3. Board of Directors
William H. Dunlap, Chair
David Alukonis
Eric Herr
Dianne Mercier
James Putnam
Stephen J. Reno
Todd I. Selig
New Hampshire Economic
Trends
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
Economic Outlook Luncheon
Michael Whitney
Daniel Wolf
January 15, 2014
Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus
Directors Emeritus
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek
Brian F. Walsh
“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”
Kimon S. Zachos
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
3
4. Anecdotal evidence from Fed Bank of
Boston, December 4, 2013
• Expanding economy in New England.
• Most respondents in manufacturing, retail and tourism, software
and IT services, and the staffing industry report year-over-year
increases in revenue
• Residential and commercial real estate contacts indicate that
market conditions continue to improve.
• Most firms are holding headcounts level; wages are steady or
increasing modestly.
• Upward price pressures remain minimal.
• Many firms are cautiously optimistic about the outlook, a more
upbeat tally than in the October round of calls.
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
4
5. Calculated Risk has the clearest picture of
the problem we face:
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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6. NH – Less of a decline, but a slower
recovery
Index of Total NonFarm Employment
(Seasonally Adjusted)
101.0
100.0
Dec 2007 =100
99.0
New England
New Hampshire
98.0
97.0
96.0
95.0
94.0
United States
93.0
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92.0
US
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
NE
NH
6
7. Many NH Employment Sectors Have
Still Not Recovered
Change in New Hampshire Jobs
10000
5000
0
-5000
Jul 07 to Jul10
Jul 10 to Jul 13
-10000
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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-15000
7
8. Job Quality is Mediocre
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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9. Nashua growth in Financial and
Business Services
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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10. State averages mask wide regional
variation
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
37.6%
36.5%
35.1%
35.0%
31.4%
31.1%
28.4%
26.9%
as
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14.7%
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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11. Did too many people own homes who could
not afford them, at 69%?
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
11
12. NH Real Estate Has Finally Hit
Bottom and Price (MLS)
NH Single-Family Residential Home Sales
Source: NH Association of REALTORS
25,000
20,000
Decline from the Peak:
Sales -40% from 2004
Price -25% from 2005
$300,000
Median Home Price
$250,000
$200,000
15,000
Number of Units Sold
$150,000
10,000
$100,000
5,000
$50,000
0
$0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Units sold
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
Median Price
2013 YTD thru November
12
12
13. Home Prices Return to the Long Term Trend:
NH Single-Family Residential Home Price (MLS)
Source: NH Association of REALTORS
$300,000
Median Home Price
$250,000
$152,054
$154,410
$169,787
$170,164
$50,000
$187,954
$216,598
$226,354
$237,976
$227,807
$188,089
$170,158
$141,372
$134,749
$100,000
$152,500
$150,000
$206,266
$200,000
Inflation Adjusted Price
Median Price
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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20
11
20
10
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
20
99
19
19
98
$0
2000 Inflation Adjusted
13
14. Another sign of life returning to local
real estate markets:
Real Estate Transfer
New Hampshire State Revenue
$180
$160
$140
Millions
$120
$100
$80
$60
$40
$20
Jul-13
Jul-12
Jul-11
Jul-10
Jul-09
Jul-08
Jul-07
Jul-06
Jul-05
Jul-04
Jul-03
Jul-02
Jul-01
Jul-00
Jul-99
$0
12 Month Running
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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16. New Hampshire Home Building Below
Normal
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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17. Declines in Prices and Interest
Rates Affect Affordability
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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18. But…….
• NH’s Young households are burdened by highest level
of student debt in the Nation;
• Lending standards are more rigorous—Qualifying
Mortgage, 43% debt to income limit, etc.;
• With rents rising and mediocre job quality, more
difficult to save and qualify;
• Nearly 20,000 foreclosed units in past several years
in the state—some will not qualify;
• Lack of liquidity is keeping boomers in larger houses
than they need;
• Prices and interest rates are rising in past several
months, blunting recent affordability improvements.
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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19. This Recovery Not Supported by
Migration
Net Migration Into and Out of New Hampshire
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
-5,000
-10,000
-15,000
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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11
20
09
20
07
20
05
20
03
20
01
19
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
19
83
19
81
19
79
19
77
19
75
19
73
19
71
-20,000
19
21. NEEP Forecast for New Hampshire
November 2013
• Growth in the economy is close to 2% and
improving.
• Housing causes acceleration in growth.
• A failure to raise the debt ceiling (in 2014)
would be serious, likely sparking a
financial crisis and a sharp recession.
• We are close to finally breaking free from
the black hole of the Great Recession. All
it takes is for Washington to come
together.
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
21
22. New Hampshire Center for
Public Policy Studies
Board of Directors
William H. Dunlap, Chair
David Alukonis
Eric Herr
Dianne Mercier
James Putnam
Stephen J. Reno
Todd I. Selig
Michael Whitney
Daniel Wolf
Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus
Directors Emeritus
Sheila T. Francoeur
Want to learn more?
• Online: nhpolicy.org
• Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
• Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
• Our blog: policyblognh.org
• (603) 226-2500
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek
Brian F. Walsh
Kimon S. Zachos
“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
22
23. Budgets and Jobs
Charlie Arlinghaus
Josiah Bartlett Center
arlinghaus@jbartlett.org
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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24. Apples to Apples "general fund"
1600000
1500000
1400000
1300000
1200000
1100000
1000000
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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25. Priorities: 2015 vs. 2013
$1,470.6M
General Fund*
(+9.8%)
$681.2M
HHS
(+5.7%)
$215.7M
DD & BH
(+16.6%)
$668M
Non-HHS
(+14.4%)
$121.4M
Debt Service
(+9.1%)
$465.5M
Other HHS
(+1.4%)
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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