Halifax Index Presentation 2013
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The Halifax Index is a definitive look at Halifax's economic and community progress. It tells our city’s story – the strength of our economy, the health of our community, and the sustainability of our environment – and provides insights for actions that will strengthen and grow our city.
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Halifax Index Presentation 2013
- 1. The Halifax Index An economic gut check with insights for action May 22nd, 2013 Fred Morley Executive Vice-President and Chief Economist
- 2. The Halifax Index • A gut check on our performance • Share timely and relevant information in narrative form • Create a dialogue that allows us to ask the right questions • Affirm actions and suggest course corrections to our Economic Strategy
- 3. The Halifax Index Approach • Broadening the definition of economic progress; • Working with research capable organizations to find the most accurate measures of success; • Benchmarking our progress against others; • Don’t point fingers, build partnerships.
- 5. People
- 8. 2011-12 Migration, Benchmarks 3288 1473 3250 3286 4970 1913 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 International Interprovincial Intraprovincial International Interprovincial Intraprovincial International Interprovincial Intraprovincial International Interprovincial Intraprovincial International Interprovincial Intraprovincial International Interprovincial Intraprovincial Halifax St. John's Quebec City London Regina Victoria
- 9. Education University Enrolment Community College Enrolment
- 10. Labour Force Labour Force Size Employment
- 12. Workforce Stability 10.2 10.4 9.6 8.2 10.0 11.1 Halifax St. John's Quebec City London Regina Victoria 2010 2011 Absence rates of full-time employees – illness, Disability, personal or family responsibility 0.021 0.007 0.027 0.010 0.000 0.034 NovaScotia Newfoundland Quebec Ontario Saskatchewan BritishColumbia 2011 2012 Per capita days lost due to strike
- 13. Economy
- 15. GDP Real GDP, Winter Publication ($2002) Per capita real GDP ($2002)
- 16. GDP Forecast – Conference Board
- 17. Sectors
- 18. Which city is Halifax’s diverse sector mix closest to?
- 19. Answer: Toronto
- 20. Consumer Behaviour Retail sales - $ millions Housing Starts and Sales
- 22. Commercial Space Commercial inventory and vacancy rates
- 23. Gateway 3,594,164 243,577 3,605,701 252,847 Air Passengers (En/Deplaned) Cruise Passengers 2011 2012 410,649 29,263 416,572 29,569 TEUs Air Cargo 2011 2012 Air and cruise passengers Air cargo and twenty-foot equivalents
- 25. Business Confidence 15% 64% 16% 5% 19% 59% 18% 4% Above Average Just Average Below Average Don't Know/No Answer Spring 2012 Spring 2013 Rating of Halifax as a place to do business 12% 74% 10% 2% 2% 10% 77% 11% 1% 1% Extremely Optimistic Moderately Optimistic Not Very Optimistic Not at all Optimistic Don't Know/No Answer Spring 2012 Spring 2013 Optimism of current economic prospects in Halifax
- 26. Quality of Place
- 28. Safety Total and violent crime indices
- 29. Safety 15% 76% 2% 4% 2% 19% 65% 2% 7% 1% Completely Satisfied Mostly Satisfied Neither Satisfied nor Dissatisfied Mostly Dissatisfied Completely Dissatisfied Spring 2012 Spring 2013 Business satisfaction with police services
- 30. Affordability Personal income per capita Market basket measure threshhold
- 31. Affordability Persons in low income – below market basket measure
- 32. Health Perceived health – good or excellent Perceived mental health – good or excellent
- 33. Community Sense of belonging to local community Somewhat or very strong Life satisfaction Satisfied or very satisfied
- 34. Arts, Culture and Recreation HRM registrations in library and Recreation programs
- 35. Sustainability
- 37. Density Persons per km2 , urban areas # of permits and value, Regional Centre And rest of HRM, 2012-13 Regional Centre Residual HRM Total Value Permits Total Value Permits 2011 $112,138,880 313 $366,145,609 495 2012 $274,183,327 321 $334,241,514 360 % of Value in RC - 2011 23.40% % of Value in RC - 2012 45.10%
- 38. Transportation % of riders satisfied with transit Total riders and hours of service
- 39. Environment NovaScotia Newfoundland Quebec Ontario Saskatchewan BritishColumbia Drinking water quality A- B B- A B- C+
- 40. Environment Waste per capita (tonnes) and diversion rate
- 41. Municipal Fiscal Sustainability Residential/Commercial Tax Split, Municipal Revenues by Source, HRM
- 43. Special Analysis Is Halifax’s labour market sustainable? David Fleming – Economist
- 44. Labour Force Analysis • An expanded labour force analysis against 12 other Canadian cities • Outcomes by – gender and age • In 2014 – ethnicity and immigration outcomes (with NHS release)
- 45. Overall – Labour Force & Employment Change – 2006 to 2012 -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Canada Halifax St. John's Quebec City Montreal London Toronto Ottawa Winnipeg Regina Edmonton Calgary Vancouver Victoria Halifax Growth Labour Force 11.1% - 9th Employment 9.8% - 8th
- 46. Participation/Unemployment Rates 2012 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% Canada Halifax St. John's Quebec City Montreal London Toronto Ottawa Winnipeg Regina Edmonton Calgary Vancouver Victoria Halifax Participation 69.8% - 7th Unemployment 6.1% - 7th
- 47. Gender
- 48. Population 2012 – 000’s 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Halifax St. John's Quebec City Montreal London Toronto Ottawa Winnipeg Regina Edmonton Calgary Vancouver Victoria Male Female Halifax Growth 2006-2012 Female: 9.4% - 7th Male: 10% - 8th
- 49. Labour Force – 000’s 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Halifax St. John's Quebec City Montreal London Toronto Ottawa Winnipeg Regina Edmonton Calgary Vancouver Victoria Male Female Two cities with more women than men in labour force (Halifax and Victoria) Halifax Growth 2006-2012 Female: 13.7% - 4th Male: 8.5% - 10th
- 50. Employment - 000’s 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 Halifax St. John's Quebec City Montreal London Toronto Ottawa Winnipeg Regina Edmonton Calgary Vancouver Victoria Female Male Two cities with more women than men with Jobs (Halifax and Victoria) Halifax Growth 2006-2012 Female: 13.7% - 4th Male: 8.5% - 10th
- 51. Unemployment/Participation Rates 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% Halifax St. John's Quebec City Montreal London Toronto Ottawa Winnipeg Regina Edmonton Calgary Vancouver Victoria Female Male Participation, 2012 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Halifax St. John's Quebec City Montreal London Toronto Ottawa Winnipeg Regina Edmonton Calgary Vancouver Victoria Female Male Unemployment, 2012
- 52. Unemployment/Participation Overall Halifax 2012 Participation Rates: Male: 72.5% - 7th Female: 67.5% - 6th Overall Halifax 2012 Unemployment Rates: Male: 6.8% - 7th Female: 5.5% - 5th Spread between male/female participation rate in Halifax lowest among cities; highest spread between unemployment rates
- 53. Why are women doing comparatively better in Halifax? One possible reason – alignment of education and growth sectors Program % of enrolled who are female in Maritime universities Health care, social assistance and education made up over 50% of new jobs since 2006 Health professions Social sciences Education 81% 62% 71%
- 54. Age
- 55. 15-24 – Labour Force and Employment Change 2006-2012 -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Canada Halifax St. John's Quebec City Montreal London Toronto Ottawa Winnipeg Regina Edmonton Calgary Vancouver Victoria Employment Labour Force Halifax Growth Labour Force -0.3%- 6th Employment -3.4%- 6th
- 56. 15-24 Unemployment/Participation Rates 2012 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% Canada Halifax St. John's Quebec City Montreal London Toronto Ottawa Winnipeg Regina Edmonton Calgary Vancouver Victoria Unemployment Rate Participation Rate Halifax Participation 67.8% - 6th Unemployment 12.3% - 6th 6th highest spread Between UE of 15+ and UE of 15-24
- 57. 25-44 – Labour Force and Employment Change 2006-2012 Halifax Growth Labour Force 0.9%- 11th Employment -1.2%- 12th -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% Canada Halifax St. John's Quebec City Montreal London Toronto Ottawa Winnipeg Regina Edmonton Calgary Vancouver Victoria Employment Labour Force
- 58. 25-44 Unemployment/Participation Rates 2012 Halifax Participation 88.7% - 5th Unemployment 6.2% - 8th Halifax had 2nd highest increase in UE since 2006 – 4.2% to 6.2% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% Canada Halifax St. John's Quebec City Montreal London Toronto Ottawa Winnipeg Regina Edmonton Calgary Vancouver Victoria Unemployment Rate Participation Rate
- 59. 45+ – Labour Force and Employment Change 2006-2012 Halifax Growth Labour Force 30.1% - 1st Employment 30.3% - 1st Halifax also ranks 1st in 55+ and 65+ LF growth 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% Canada Halifax St. John's Quebec City Montreal London Toronto Ottawa Winnipeg Regina Edmonton Calgary Vancouver Victoria Employment Labour Force
- 60. 45+ Unemployment/Participation Rates 2012 Halifax Participation 57.9% - 5th Unemployment 3.5% - 4th Halifax had 2nd highest spread Between 45+ UE and 15+ UE – 2.6% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Canada Halifax St. John's Quebec City Montreal London Toronto Ottawa Regina Calgary Vancouver Victoria Unemployment Rate Participation Rate
- 61. Halifax Labour Force and Employment 2006-2012 15-24 25-44 45+ Labour Force – Actual (000’s) -0.1 0.9 23.1 Employment – Actual (000’s) -1.2 -1.1 22.4 Labour Force - % of Total -0.4% 3.8% 96.7% Employment - % of Total -6.0% -5.5% 111.4%
- 62. Steps towards ensuring a sustainable workforce • Labour market education for youth • Flexible work strategies to maximize productivity • Workforce development through partnership • Young and foreign student entrepreneurship
- 63. Special Analysis A Halifax Innovation Agenda
- 64. Canada’s Innovation Problem Conference Board of Canada’s annual How Canada Performs Publication Canada particularly struggles in: exports, venture capital, patents, ICT investment and connectivity, business R & D Spending Scientific research and creation of new business is high, however they lack the follow through towards commercial products and services
- 65. Why does innovation matter? “Innovation is essential to a high-performing economy. Overall, countries that are more innovative are passing Canada on measures such as income per capita, productivity, and the quality of social programs. It is also critical to environmental protection, a high-performing education system, a well-functioning system of health promotion and health care, and an inclusive society. Without innovation, all these systems stagnate and Canada’s performance deteriorates relative to that of its peers.” – CBOC • These critical systems are at the heart of our broader definition of economic and community progress – and why the Halifax Index was developed.
- 66. Nova Scotia’s R & D Investment Deficit Per capita investment in R & D -2009 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 Federal Government Provincial Government Business Enterprise Higher Education Private Non-Profit Foreign British Columbia Ontario Quebec Newfoundland Nova Scotia Canada Compared to national average: • Foreign: 15% • Business: 23% • Provincial: 29%
- 67. Business Intentions - Halifax
- 68. R & D – Relationship to other outcomes
- 69. Developing a Halifax Innovation Agenda • Develop more industry-driven university and college partnerships aimed at commercialization • Mitigate the risk of new entrepreneurship through support for cluster incubation and acceleration • Foster the development of private-sector led regional business clusters around industries that are already succeeding • Adjust our culture from risk-adverse to one with an abundance of support for new ideas, opportunities and partnerships - making winning bets