Quarterly overview of the Business confidence monitor produced by the ICAEW in association with Grant Thornton UK LLP.

1. Q4 2013 ICAEW / Grant Thornton Business
Confidence Monitor results
28 October 2013
Contact: Caroline Florence
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE
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2. Outline
• Confidence index top lines
• Financial performance indicators
– Growth indicators
– Inflation & labour market indicators
• Regional & sector stories
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE
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Source: ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2011 Business Confidence Monitor

3. Business confidence continues to climb
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Business Confidence Index
40
30
31.7
25.8
24.6 25.5
21.5
21.9
20
8.1 9.4 6.4
10
5 5.5
1.4
0
8.8
13.7
11.9
9.6
8.1
11.5
6.4
4.8
2.1
24
4.8
16.7
12.8
12
1.1
-1.3
-5.4
-3.9
-7.2
4.2
-9.7-9.3
-10
-19.7
-20
-25.7
-30
-28.2
-36.3
-40
-45.3
UK Average
-50
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE
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Q4 2013
Q2 2013
Q4 2012
Q2 2012
Q4 2011
Q2 2011
Q4 2010
Q2 2010
Q4 2009
Q2 2009
Q4 2008
Q2 2008
Q4 2007
Q2 2007
Q4 2006
Q2 2006
Q4 2005
Q2 2005
Q4 2004
Q2 2004
-60
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Slide number 3
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

4. Confidence has now been rising for five consecutive
quarters
Quarterly change to Confidence Index
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE
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Q4 2013
Q2 2013
Q4 2012
Q2 2012
Q4 2011
Q2 2011
Q4 2010
Q2 2010
Q4 2009
Q2 2009
Q4 2008
Q2 2008
Q4 2007
Q2 2007
Q4 2006
Q2 2006
Q4 2005
Q2 2005
-20
Q4 2004
-15
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Slide number 4
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

5. Confidence has been increasing since August
42
UK BCM CI TREND - 3 WEEK ROLLED
40
(Each point based on c.230)
38
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
Where the line passes thru 4 vertical
grid boxes the change is significant.
8
6
4
2
0
THREE WEEKS BEGINNING ……..
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Slide number 5
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

6. Economic growth expected to accelerate again in Q4 2013 –
expanding by 1.3%
Quarter on quarter real GDP growth, per cent
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
QQ growth actual
QQ growth estimate
-2.0%
-2.5%
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE
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Q4 2013
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
Q4 2012
Q3 2012
Q2 2012
Q1 2012
Q4 2011
Q3 2011
Q2 2011
Q1 2011
Q4 2010
Q3 2010
Q2 2010
Q1 2010
Q4 2009
Q3 2009
Q2 2009
Q1 2009
Q4 2008
Q3 2008
Q2 2008
Q1 2008
Q4 2007
Q3 2007
Q2 2007
Q1 2007
Q4 2006
-3.0%
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Slide number 6
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

7. Outline
• Confidence index top lines
• Financial performance indicators
– Growth indicators
– Inflation & labour market indicators
• Regional & sector stories
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE
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Source: ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2011 Business Confidence Monitor

8. Reported turnover growth and expectations pick up
Turnover, annual percentage change
8
6
4
2
0
… over last 12 months
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE
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Q4 2013
Q2 2013
Q4 2012
Q2 2012
Q4 2011
Q2 2011
Q4 2010
Q2 2010
Q4 2009
Q2 2009
Q4 2008
Q2 2008
Q4 2007
Q2 2007
-4
Q4 2006
-2
… expected next 12 months
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Slide number 8
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

9. Reported profit growth has also increased this quarter
Gross profits, annual percentage change
8
6
4
2
0
… over last 12 months
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE
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Q4 2013
Q2 2013
Q4 2012
Q2 2012
Q4 2011
Q2 2011
Q4 2010
Q2 2010
Q4 2009
Q2 2009
Q4 2008
Q2 2008
Q4 2007
Q2 2007
-4
Q4 2006
-2
… expected next 12 months
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Slide number 9
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

10. Expected domestic sales growth has increased for five
consecutive quarters
Domestic sales, annual percentage change
8
6
4
2
0
… over last 12 months
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Q4 2013
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
Q4 2012
Q3 2012
Q2 2012
Q1 2012
Q4 2011
Q3 2011
Q2 2011
Q1 2011
Q4 2010
Q3 2010
Q2 2010
Q1 2010
Q4 2009
Q3 2009
Q2 2009
Q1 2009
Q4 2008
Q3 2008
Q2 2008
Q1 2008
-4
Q4 2007
-2
… expected next 12 months
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Slide number 10
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

11. Next year should see a relatively favourable environment
for UK exporters
Annual real GDP growth. Cebr forecasts for 2013 and 2014
15
13
11
9
7
5
3
1
-1
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2014f
2013f
2012
Eurozone
2011
2010
2009
US
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE
2008
2007
2006
2005
-5
2004
-3
China
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Slide number 11
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

12. Reported export growth has increased for two consecutive
quarters
Exports, annual percentage change
8
6
4
2
0
… over last 12 months
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE
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Q4 2013
Q2 2013
Q4 2012
Q2 2012
Q4 2011
Q2 2011
Q4 2010
Q2 2010
Q4 2009
Q2 2009
Q4 2008
Q2 2008
Q4 2007
Q2 2007
-4
Q4 2006
-2
… expected next 12 months
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Slide number 12
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

13. Signs starting to emerge that businesses are becoming
more willing to invest
Capital investment, annual percentage change
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
… over last 12 months
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Q4 2013
Q2 2013
Q4 2012
Q2 2012
Q4 2011
Q2 2011
Q4 2010
Q2 2010
Q4 2009
Q2 2009
Q4 2008
Q2 2008
Q4 2007
Q2 2007
-4
Q4 2006
-3
… expected next 12 months
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Slide number 13
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

14. Sharp fall in the share of businesses reporting customer
demand to be a greater challenge
Share of businesses reporting customer demand as greater challenge
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE
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Q4 2013
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
Q4 2012
Q3 2012
Q2 2012
Q1 2012
Q4 2011
Q3 2011
Q2 2011
Q1 2011
Q4 2010
Q3 2010
Q2 2010
Q1 2010
Q4 2009
Q3 2009
Q2 2009
Q1 2009
Q4 2008
Q3 2008
Q2 2008
Q1 2008
0%
Q4 2007
10%
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Slide number 14
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

15. Decline in net share of businesses with stocks above
normal levels
Net share* of businesses** with stock levels above normal
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Raw materials
Q4 2013
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
Q4 2012
Q3 2012
Q2 2012
Q1 2012
Q4 2011
Q3 2011
Q2 2011
Q1 2011
Q4 2010
Q3 2010
Q2 2010
Q1 2010
Q4 2009
Q3 2009
Q2 2009
Q1 2009
Q4 2008
Q3 2008
Q2 2008
Q1 2008
-20%
Q4 2007
-15%
Finished goods *Share of businesses with stock levels above normal minus ** Manufacturing, Construction,
share of businesses with stock levels below normal
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE
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Transport & Storage
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Slide number 15
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

16. Still signs of spare capacity in the economy
Share of businesses operating at and below capacity
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
Below capacity
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE
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Q4 2013
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
Q4 2012
Q3 2012
Q2 2012
Q1 2012
Q4 2011
Q3 2011
Q2 2011
Q1 2011
Q4 2010
Q3 2010
Q2 2010
Q1 2010
Q4 2009
Q3 2009
Q2 2009
Q1 2009
Q4 2008
Q3 2008
Q2 2008
Q1 2008
30%
Q4 2007
35%
At capacity
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Slide number 16
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

17. Outline
• Confidence index top lines
• Financial performance indicators
– Growth indicators
– Inflation & labour market indicators
• Regional & sector stories
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE
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Slide number 17
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

18. Uptick in selling price increases but growth remains below
pre-crisis norms
Selling prices, annual % change
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
… over last 12 months
Q4 2013
Q2 2013
Q4 2012
Q2 2012
Q4 2011
Q2 2011
Q4 2010
Q2 2010
… expected next 12 months
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Q4 2009
Q2 2009
Q4 2008
Q2 2008
Q4 2007
Q2 2007
-1
Q4 2006
-0.5
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Slide number 18
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

19. Input price inflation continues to hold steady
Input prices, annual % change
5
4
3
2
1
… over last 12 months
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Q4 2013
Q2 2013
Q4 2012
Q2 2012
Q4 2011
Q2 2011
Q4 2010
Q2 2010
Q4 2009
Q2 2009
Q4 2008
Q2 2008
Q4 2007
Q2 2007
-1
Q4 2006
0
… expected next 12 months
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Slide number 19
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

20. Employment growth rising and expected to pick up further
Employment, annual percentage change
3
2
1
0
-1
… over last 12 months
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Q4 2013
Q2 2013
Q4 2012
Q2 2012
Q4 2011
Q2 2011
Q4 2010
Q2 2010
Q4 2009
Q2 2009
Q4 2008
Q2 2008
Q4 2007
Q2 2007
-3
Q4 2006
-2
… expected next 12 months
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Slide number 20
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

21. FTSE 350 companies expected to stop shedding jobs
Employment, annual percentage change
3
FTSE 350 Listed
Large Private Companies
SME Private Companies
2
1
0
-1
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Expected
12 months
from Q4 2013
Q4 2013
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
Q4 2012
Q3 2012
Q2 2012
Q1 2012
Q4 2011
Q3 2011
Q2 2011
Q1 2011
-3
Q4 2010
-2
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Slide number 21
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

22. Staff turnover and skill availability becoming more of an
issue as the economy recovers
Net percentage balance of firms reporting factors to be a greater challenge to
business performance
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
Availability of management skills
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE
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Availability of non-management skills
Q4 2013
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
Q4 2012
Q3 2012
Q2 2012
Q1 2012
Q4 2011
Q3 2011
Q2 2011
Q1 2011
Q4 2010
Q3 2010
Q2 2010
Q1 2010
Q4 2009
Q3 2009
Q2 2009
Q1 2009
Q4 2008
Q3 2008
Q2 2008
Q1 2008
-15%
Q4 2007
-10%
Staff turnover
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Slide number 22
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

23. Salary growth remains weak and below consumer price
inflation
Average total salary, annual percentage change
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
… over last 12 months
Q4 2013
Q2 2013
Q4 2012
Q2 2012
Q4 2011
Q2 2011
Q4 2010
Q2 2010
… expected next 12 months
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE
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Q4 2009
Q2 2009
Q4 2008
Q2 2008
Q4 2007
Q2 2007
-2
Q4 2006
-1
Consumer price index (CPI) inflation
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Slide number 23
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

24. Outline
• Confidence index top lines
• Financial performance indicators
– Growth indicators
– Inflation & labour market indicators
• Regional & sector stories
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE
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Slide number 24
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

25. Trend of Business Confidence by Region
UK AVERAGE
London
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
South East (excl
London)
Q4 2012
UK AVERAGE
North West
Q1 2013
Northern
England
South West
Q2 2013
East of England
Q3 2013
Yorks & Humber
East Midlands
West Midlands
Q4 2013
England
Scotland
Wales
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
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Slide number 25
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

26. Trend of Business Confidence by Sector
ALL
PRODUCTION
UK
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Q4 2012
ALL
SERVICES
Retail
& Wholesale
Q1 2013
Transport
& Storage
Energy, Water &
Mining
Q2 2013
Banking,
Finance
& Insurance
Manufacturing
& Engineering
Q3 2013
Property
CONSTRUCTION
Q4 2013
Business
Services
IT &
Communications
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
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Slide number 26
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

27. A broad-based recovery
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Business Confidence Index – construction sector
60
All Production industries
Construction
All Service industries
40
20
0
-20
-40
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE
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Q4 2013
Q2 2013
Q4 2012
Q2 2012
Q4 2011
Q2 2011
Q4 2010
Q2 2010
Q4 2009
Q2 2009
Q4 2008
Q2 2008
Q4 2007
Q2 2007
Q4 2006
-60
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Slide number 27
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

28. Confidence of retail & wholesale firms now
keeping pace with business services
40
Retail & Wholesale
Business services
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE
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Q4 2013
Q2 2013
Q4 2012
Q2 2012
Q4 2011
Q2 2011
Q4 2010
Q2 2010
Q4 2009
Q2 2009
Q4 2008
Q2 2008
Q4 2007
-60
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Slide number 28
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

29. Services sector output is now past its pre-crisis
peak
ONS index of economic output, by sector, 2007 = 100
105
100
95
90
85
Production industries
Construction
Services
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE
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2013 Q3
2013 Q1
2012 Q3
2012 Q1
2011 Q3
2011 Q1
2010 Q3
2010 Q1
2009 Q3
2009 Q1
2008 Q3
2008 Q1
2007 Q3
2007 Q1
2006 Q3
80
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Slide number 29
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

30. Profit growth – last 12 months
ALL
PRODUCTION
UK
Energy, Water &
Mining
Manufacturing
& Engineering
CONSTRUCTION
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
Q4 2012
-2
ALL
SERVICES
Retail
& Wholesale
Q1 2013
Transport
& Storage
Q2 2013
Banking,
Finance
& Insurance
Q3 2013
Property
Q4 2013
Business
Services
IT &
Communications
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
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Slide number 30
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

31. Profit growth – next 12 months
ALL
PRODUCTION
UK
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
Q4 2012
ALL
SERVICES
Retail
& Wholesale
Q1 2013
Transport
& Storage
Energy, Water &
Mining
Q2 2013
Banking,
Finance
& Insurance
Manufacturing
& Engineering
Q3 2013
Property
CONSTRUCTION
Q4 2013
Business
Services
IT &
Communications
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
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Slide number 31
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

32. Capital investment growth – last 12 months
ALL
PRODUCTION
UK
Energy, Water &
Mining
Manufacturing
& Engineering
CONSTRUCTION
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
Q4 2012
-2
ALL
SERVICES
Retail
& Wholesale
Q1 2013
Transport
& Storage
Q2 2013
Banking,
Finance
& Insurance
Q3 2013
Property
Q4 2013
Business
Services
IT &
Communications
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
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Slide number 32
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

33. Capital investment growth – next 12 months
ALL
PRODUCTION
UK
Energy, Water &
Mining
Manufacturing
& Engineering
CONSTRUCTION
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
Q4 2012
-2
ALL
SERVICES
Retail
& Wholesale
Q1 2013
Transport
& Storage
Q2 2013
Banking,
Finance
& Insurance
Q3 2013
Property
Q4 2013
Business
Services
IT &
Communications
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
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Slide number 33
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

34. Export growth – last 12 months
ALL
PRODUCTION
UK
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
Q4 2012
ALL
SERVICES
Retail
& Wholesale
Q1 2013
Transport
& Storage
Energy, Water &
Mining
Q2 2013
Banking,
Finance
& Insurance
Manufacturing
& Engineering
Q3 2013
Property
CONSTRUCTION
Q4 2013
Business
Services
IT &
Communications
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
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Slide number 34
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

35. Export growth – next 12 months
ALL
PRODUCTION
UK
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
Q4 2012
ALL
SERVICES
Retail
& Wholesale
Q1 2013
Transport
& Storage
Energy, Water &
Mining
Q2 2013
Banking,
Finance
& Insurance
Manufacturing
& Engineering
Q3 2013
Property
CONSTRUCTION
Q4 2013
Business
Services
IT &
Communications
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
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Slide number 35
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

36. Employee growth – last 12 months
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Banking, Finance & Insurance
IT & Communications
All Service Industries
Manufacturing & Engineering
UK National Average
Retail & Wholesale
All Production Industries
Property
Construction
Transport & Storage
Business Services
Energy, Water & Mining
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE
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Slide number 36
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

37. Employee growth – next 12 months
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Banking, Finance & Insurance
Transport & Storage
Energy, Water & Mining
All Production Industries
Manufacturing & Engineering
All Service Industries
UK National Average
Construction
Retail & Wholesale
Property
Business Services
IT & Communications
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Slide number 37
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

38. Trend of Business Confidence by Company
Type
UK Confidence
Index
ALL UK LISTED
FTSE 350
ALL PRIVATE
COMPANIES
Private Companies Private Companies
Large (250+ staff)
SME (<250 staff)
40
30
20
10
0
-10
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
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Q2 2013
Q3 2013
Q4 2013
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Slide number 38
ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor

39. Conclusions
• Business confidence continued to rise in Q4 2013, suggesting that the
economic recovery is gaining further momentum.
• Confidence has now increased for five consecutive quarters.
• Financial performance indicators such as reported turnover and profit
growth have picked up and are expected to grow faster over the next
12 months.
• Tentative signs are emerging that businesses are becoming more
inclined to invest.
• Pay restraint remains the order of the day, with expected growth in
employee earnings standing below current rates of consumer price
inflation.
• Confidence has increased across all three main broad industry
sectors – Construction, Production Industries and Services.
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40. A world leader of the
accountancy and finance profession
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE
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