An analysis of data concerning the progress of digital radio broadcasting in the UK radio market, by Grant Goddard in August 2010.

1. The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom
Digital Radio Progress Report’
Report
®
Grant Goddard
radio specialist
www.grantgoddard.co.uk
August 2010

2. Contents
Grant Goddard
radio specialist
 UK DAB & digital radio forecasts
 UK radio receiver hardware data
 UK digital radio listening data
The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010
2

3. Grant Goddard
radio specialist
UK DAB & digital radio forecasts
The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010
3

4. Grant Goddard
UK DAB receiver forecast – Digital Radio Development Bureau
radio specialist
DAB receiver penetration (% adults, % households)
55
34.5
35.3
2010Q2
32.3
2009Q3
33.4
33.0
29.7
2008Q4
2009Q2
28.7
22.3
2007Q4
2008Q3
21.7
20.3
2007Q2
16.0
2006Q4
19.5
15.3
2006Q3
2007Q1
15.3
13.6
11.1
5.3
2004Q4
2005Q4
4.5
2004Q3
10.5
4.4
2004Q2
5
3.9
2004Q1
10
9.1
8.1
15
2005Q3
20
2006Q2
25
2007Q3
30
27.3
27.3
35
32.1
40
2009Q1
DAB receiver
penetration falls
below forecast
45
2010Q1
50
RAJAR actual (% adults)
2010Q4
2010Q3
2009Q4
2008Q2
2008Q1
2006Q1
2005Q2
2005Q1
0
DRDB 2007 forecast (% households)
[source: RAJAR, Digital Radio Development Bureau]
The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010
4

5. Grant Goddard
UK DAB receiver forecast – Digital Radio Development Bureau
radio specialist
Cumulative DAB receiver unit sales (million at year-end)
25
20
15
10
10.52
8.53
6.45
5
actual
2004 DRDB forecast
2005 DRDB forecast
2006 DRDB forecast
2007 DRDB forecast
4.44
2.72
0
1.29
2004
2005
2006
2007
DAB
receiver
sales
lower
than all
industry
forecasts
2008
2009
2010
[source: Digital Radio Development Bureau]
The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010
5

6. UK DAB receiver forecast – Digital Radio Working Group
Grant Goddard
radio specialist
DAB radio receiver sales (% of total radio receiver sales)
55%
50%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
22%
20%
20%
18%
15%
10%
21%
Government
forecast of DAB
radio receiver
sales very unlikely
to be achieved
13%
8%
actual (DRDB four-quarter m oving average)
DRWG aspirational tim etable (January 2009)
5%
trendline
0%
2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1
[source: Digital Radio Development Bureau, Digital Radio Working Group]
The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010
6

7. Grant Goddard
UK digital radio listening forecast - Ofcom
radio specialist
Radio listening via digital platforms (% of radio listening at year-end)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
Radio listening
via digital much
lower than
Ofcom forecast
30
16.6
20
11.0
10
18.3
20.9
12.5
5.9
actual (RAJAR year-end)
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
0
Ofcom forecast (Novem ber 2006)
[source: RAJAR, Ofcom]
The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010
7

8. Grant Goddard
UK digital radio listening forecast – Digital Radio Working Group radio specialist
Radio listening via digital platforms (% of radio listening at year-end)
55
50
actual (RAJAR year-end)
50
DRWG aspirational tim etable (Jan 2009)
trendline
45
Government
forecast of digital
listening unlikely
to be achieved
40
35
30
25
20.9
18.3
20
16.6
15
11.0
12.5
10
5.9
5
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
0
[source: RAJAR, Digital Radio Working Group]
The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010
8

9. Grant Goddard
UK digital radio listening forecast – Digital Britain
radio specialist
Radio listening via digital platforms (% of radio listening at year-end)
68%
58%
50%
50%
43%
26%
24%
31%
28%
36%
33%
56%
49%
43%
38%
Trendline
predicts 50%
criterion to be
achieved yearend 2018,
rather than
2013 or 2015
20.9%
Digital Britain ('organic grow th' forecast June 2009)
Digital Britain ('drive to digital' forecast June 2009)
2018 Q4
2017 Q4
2016 Q4
2015 Q4
2014 Q4
2013 Q4
2012 Q4
2011 Q4
2010 Q4
2009 Q4
2008 Q4
2007 Q4
2006 Q4
2005 Q4
2004 Q4
0%
historical data (RAJAR)
historical data trendline
[source: RAJAR, Digital Britain, Value Partners]
The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010
9

10. UK digital commercial radio listening target - RadioCentre
Grant Goddard
radio specialist
Commercial radio listening via digital platforms (% of commercial radio listening at year-end)
50%
50%
actual (RAJAR year-end)
RadioCentre target (Jan 2007)
40%
30%
30%
20%
18.1%
19.0%
19.7%
2008
2009
Commercial radio
listening via
digital much
lower than
RadioCentre
target
16%
14.0%
11.0%
10%
5.0%
0%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2010
2011
[source: RAJAR, RadioCentre]
The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010
10

11. Grant Goddard
radio specialist
UK radio receiver hardware data
The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010
11

12. Grant Goddard
UK DAB radio receiver sales
radio specialist
964
Quarterly DAB receiver sales (‘000 units per quarter)
1,000
796
162
828
863
179
200
750
121
119
160
681
153
140
120
38
335
366
358
299
17
40
363
382
308
287
338
294
134
102
111
183
34
18
13
5
21
100
Year-on-year
growth in DAB
80
radio receiver
sales negative
during 60
2009
28
40
20
4
20
1
-1
-10
53
39
205
245
500
483
489
510
101
250
180
-4
-6
0
0
quarterly DAB receiver sales ('000) [left axis]
2009 Q4
2009 Q3
2009 Q2
2009 Q1
2008 Q4
2008 Q3
2008 Q2
2008 Q1
2007 Q4
2007 Q3
2007 Q2
2007 Q1
2006 Q4
2006 Q3
2006 Q2
2006 Q1
2005 Q4
2005 Q3
2005 Q2
2005 Q1
2004 Q4
2004 Q3
2004 Q2
2004 Q1
2003 Q4
2003 Q3
2003 Q2
-20
year-on-year change (%) [right axis]
[source: Digital Radio Development Bureau]
The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010
12

13. Grant Goddard
UK radio receiver sales
radio specialist
UK radio receiver sales – four quarter moving average (‘000 units per annum)
7,101
1,899
1,988
2,070
7,284
8,030
Q3 2008
22% 21%
Only 21% of
new radios
sold in the
UK are DAB
2,180
8,227
Q2 2008
2,174
8,209
Q1 2008
2,114
8,140
Q4 2007
2,006
7,906
Q3 2007
1,824
7,854
Q2 2007
9,495
Q3 2006
7,978
9,892
Q2 2006
Q1 2007
10,169
Q1 2006
8,062
10,550
Q4 2005
4,000
Q4 2006
10,657
Q2 2005
Q3 2005
10,611
Q1 2005
6,000
10,678
8,000
1,761
1,734
1,680
1,575
10,000
1,566
1,493
1,407
1,208
1,051
951
12,000
DAB receivers as percentage of total receiver sales
8% 9% 10% 12%13%14% 14%17%18%18% 19% 20%20% 21%21%
22%
Unit sales of
DAB radios
declining
from 2008
peak
2,000
analogue radio unit sales ('000)
Q1 2010
Q4 2009
Q3 2009
Q2 2009
Q1 2009
Q4 2008
0
DAB radio unit sales ('000)
[source: GfK/Digital Radio Development Bureau]
The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010
13

14. Grant Goddard
UK DAB radio receiver ownership
radio specialist
Percentage of adults (15+) who own a DAB radio receiver at home
Take-up of DAB
hardware is slowing
41
45
10.5
35.3
34.5
33.4
33.0
32.3
29.7
28.7
22.3
20.3
16.0
15.3
15.3
13.6
5.3
4.5
4.4
5
3.9
10
9.1
8.1
15
11.1
18
20
19.5
22
25
21.7
30
27.3
27.3
32
35
32.1
40
RAJAR
2010Q2
2010Q1
2009Q4
2009Q3
2009Q2
2009Q1
2008Q4
2008Q3
2008Q2
2008Q1
2007Q4
2007Q3
2007Q2
2007Q1
2006Q4
2006Q3
2006Q2
2006Q1
2005Q4
2005Q3
2005Q2
2005Q1
2004Q4
2004Q3
2004Q2
2004Q1
0
Ofcom
[source: RAJAR, Ofcom]
The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010
14

15. Grant Goddard
UK DAB radio receiver consumer likelihood to purchase
radio specialist
“How likely is it that your household will get a DAB radio in the next 12 months?” (“6 months” in 2006
and 2007) - % of responses
80
76
74
64
60
55
No evident increase
in intention to
purchase DAB radio
receivers
40
28
20
17
20
19
16
17
7
7
0
likely
[source: Ofcom]
2006
unlikely
2007 Q1
The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010
2009 Q1
don't know
2010 Q1
15

16. Grant Goddard
UK consumer access to digital radio
radio specialist
Access to digital radio platforms (% of UK households)
100
92
90
80
73
Consumer
accessibility to
digital radio
much higher
for platforms
other than DAB
70
60
50
40
35
30
20
10
0
internet
digital TV
DAB radio
[Source: Ofcom & RAJAR, Q1 2010]
The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010
16

17. Grant Goddard
radio specialist
UK digital radio listening data
The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010
17

18. Grant Goddard
UK radio listening by platform
radio specialist
8.5%
24.6%
20.9%
66.6%
67.0%
21.1%
66.1%
9.3%
12.7%
21.1%
66.2%
24.0%
12.5%
20.1%
67.5%
66.7%
13.0%
18.3%
68.6%
12.5%
12.9%
18.7%
68.4%
12.8%
12.6%
17.9%
9.5%
17.8%
72.7%
69.5%
9.4%
13.9%
16.6%
12.9%
80%
15.0%
21.1%
100%
74.0%
UK radio listening by platform - hours listened (% of total adult hours listened)
66.1%
40%
71.1%
60%
Analogue platform
is two-thirds of
radio listening
20%
0%
2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2
analogue
digital
unspecified
[source: RAJAR]
The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010
18

19. Grant Goddard
UK radio listening by platform
radio specialist
80%
66.1%
71.1%
74.0%
72.7%
69.5%
68.4%
68.6%
67.5%
66.2%
66.1%
66.6%
66.7%
67.0%
UK radio listening by platform - hours listened (% of total adult hours listened)
60%
Digital platforms listening is recorded as
increasing, partly because less ‘unspecified’
listening is being recorded
20%
21.1%
13.9%
9.4%
9.5%
12.6%
12.9%
13.0%
12.5%
12.7%
12.8%
12.5%
9.3%
8.5%
12.9%
15.0%
16.6%
17.8%
17.9%
18.7%
18.3%
20.1%
21.1%
21.1%
20.9%
24.0%
24.6%
40%
0%
ANALOGUE
2007 Q2
2007 Q3
2007 Q4
2008 Q1
TOTAL DIGITAL
2008 Q2
2008 Q3
2008 Q4
2009 Q1
UNSPECIFIED
2009 Q2
2009 Q3
2009 Q4
2010 Q1
2010 Q2
[source: RAJAR]
The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010
19

20. Grant Goddard
UK radio listening by platform
radio specialist
UK radio listening by platform - hours listened (% of total adult hours listened)
80%
60%
RAJAR definition of internet listening
excludes on-demand, ‘listen again’,
podcasts, internet-only radio and
online music (Last.fm, Spotify, etc.)
2.6%
2.9%
3.0%
3.2%
3.3%
3.2%
3.2%
3.4%
3.6%
3.6%
3.4%
4.0%
4.1%
1.5%
1.6%
1.9%
2.1%
2.0%
2.2%
2.0%
2.2%
2.2%
2.2%
2.1%
2.9%
2.9%
1.7%
1.9%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.9%
1.7%
1.8%
2.1%
2.0%
1.7%
1.9%
1.8%
20%
7.0%
8.6%
9.9%
10.8%
11.0%
11.3%
11.4%
12.7%
13.1%
13.3%
13.7%
15.1%
15.8%
40%
LISTENING VIA TV
LISTENING VIA INTERNET
DIGITAL UNSPECIFIED
0%
LISTENING VIA DAB
2007 Q2
2007 Q3
2007 Q4
2008 Q1
2008 Q2
2008 Q3
2008 Q4
2009 Q1
2009 Q2
2009 Q3
2009 Q4
2010 Q1
2010 Q2
[source: RAJAR]
The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010
20

21. Grant Goddard
UK commercial radio listening by platform
radio specialist
UK listening to commercial radio by platform (% of adult 15+ listening)
Commercial
radio platform
share:
DAB = 13%
digital: internet,
2.6%
digital: unspecified,
3.4%
digital: DTV, 5.0%
digital: DAB, 13.4%
unspecified, 8.5%
all analogue, 67.1%
[source: RAJAR, Q2 2010]
The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010
21

22. Grant Goddard
UK BBC radio listening by platform
radio specialist
UK listening to BBC radio by platform (% of adult 15+ listening)
BBC radio
platform share:
DAB = 18%
digital: internet,
2.5% digital: unspecified,
0.7%
digital: DTV, 3.3%
digital: DAB, 17.9%
unspecified, 8.3%
all analogue, 67.3%
Dial-up
[source: RAJAR, Q2 2010]
The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010
22

23. 0
The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010
1.7
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
talkSPORT
Total LBC (UK)
Total Absolute Radio
Gold Network (UK)
BBC Radio 3
BBC 6 Music
BBC World Service
BBC Radio 7
Total Kerrang!
Planet Rock
Total XFM (UK)
The Hits
Smash Hits Radio
Sunrise Radio National
Heat
1Xtra from the BBC
BBC Asian Network UK
Jazz FM
Absolute 80s
Five Live Sports Extra
Absolute Classic Rock
0.1
1.9
Total Kiss Network
Chill
2.1
Total Smooth Radio
0.1
2.1
Total Real Radio
Panjab Radio
2.4
Total Magic
8
0.1
2.7
2
Galaxy Network (UK)
UK listening to national radio stations
NME Radio
4.8
3.8
4
Classic FM
BBC Radio Five Live
5.8
6
Heart Network (UK)
9.3
10
BBC Radio 1
12.5
14
BBC Radio 4
16
15.9
18
BBC Radio 2
Grant Goddard
radio specialist
Share of UK radio listening (% of adult 15+ hours listened)
12
Listening to digital radio stations
[red] remains at low levels
[source: RAJAR, Q2 2010]
23

24. Grant Goddard
UK digital radio stations on ‘Digital One’ national DAB platform
radio specialist
National digital radio stations
internet
business model
commercial
commercial
donations
donations
unsigned music
government
commercial
commercial
commercial
commercial
commercial
commercial
commercial
commercial
commercial
commercial
FreeSat
station
Freeview
owner
1999
Planet Rock
2010
TIML
Absolute 80s
2009
Premier Christian Radio
2009
UCB UK
2009
Amazing Radio
2008
BFBS Radio
2009
IPC
NME Radio
2009
Panjab Radio
2009
Folder Media Fun Kids
2006
GCap Media TheJazz
2000
GCap Media Capital Life
2000
C4 + UBC
Oneword Radio
1999
GCap Media Core
2000
Saga
PrimeTime Radio
2000
Bloomberg
Talkmoney
2000
ITN
ITN News
% SHARE OF ALL RADIO LISTENING
% SHARE OF LISTENING VIA DIGITAL PLATFORMS
% SHARE OF LISTENING VIA DAB PLATFORM
local DAB
launched on
national DAB
national DAB
digital platforms
RAJAR Q2 2010
trial period
(expired)
% share of
total radio
listening
(adults)
weekly
reach
(adults)
0.50
0.15
closed 2010
closed 2008
closed 2008
closed 2008
closed 2008
closed 2006
closed 2003
6 months
3 months
8 months
6 months
4 months
718,000
288,000
0.13
0.07
253,000
155,000
Many
commercial
digital radio
stations have
closed
closed 2002
0.85
3.48
5.43
[source: RAJAR]
The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010
24

25. Grant Goddard
UK radio listening to digital stations
radio specialist
UK listening to digital-only radio stations - ‘000 hours per week (adults 15+)
Listening to digitalonly radio stations
boosted in 2010 by
BBC Radio 6 Music
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
Satellite
TOTAL (com m ercial + BBC)
COMMERCIAL RADIO
2010Q2
2010Q1
2009Q4
2009Q3
2009Q2
2009Q1
2008Q4
2008Q3
2008Q2
2008Q1
2007Q4
2007Q3
2007Q2
2007Q1
2006Q4
2006Q3
2006Q2
2006Q1
2005Q4
2005Q3
2005Q2
2005Q1
2004Q4
2004Q3
Dial-up
2004Q2
2004Q1
2003Q4
2003Q3
2003Q2
2003Q1
0
BBC RADIO
[source: RAJAR]
The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010
25

26. Only 5% of commercial Goddard
Grant
radio listening is to
exclusively digital radio specialist
content
UK commercial digital-only radio station listening
UK listening to commercial digital-only radio stations (adults 15+)
50%
5.4
5.2
5.2
4.3
4.5
4.6
4.7
3.6
3.9
4.0
3.3
3.5
3.2
3.0
30%
33%
28%
29%
26%
2.3
2.1
40%
36%
27%
26%
24%
24%
23%
22%23%22% 20%
Only 22% of
commercial radio
listening via digital
platforms is to
exclusively digital
content
0.7
0.6
2
1.9
2.1
2.1
2.7
3
3.0
3.4
4
5.2
5.4
5.2
5.0
5
1
5.1
5.5
6
10%
0%
2010Q2
2010Q1
2009Q4
2009Q3
2009Q2
2009Q1
2008Q4
2008Q3
2008Q2
2008Q1
2007Q4
2007Q3
2007Q2
2007Q1
2006Q4
2006Q3
2006Q2
2006Q1
2005Q4
2005Q3
2005Q2
2005Q1
2004Q4
2004Q3
2004Q2
2004Q1
2003Q4
2003Q3
2003Q2
2003Q1
0
listening to com m ercial digital-only radio stations as % of all com m ercial radio listening [left axis]
listening to com m ercial digital-only radio stations as % of digital listening to com m ercial radio [right axis]
[source: RAJAR]
The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010
26

27. Only 4% of BBC
Grant Goddard
radio listening is to
radio specialist
exclusively digital
content
UK BBC digital-only radio station listening
UK listening to BBC digital-only radio stations (adults 15+)
40%
4.0
5
3.5
2.8
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.2
2.0
2.0
20%
19%
1.6
1.4
1.7
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.1
22%
30%
16%16%16%
17%
16%
15%14%15%15%
14%
13%
10%
Only 16% of BBC radio
listening via digital
platforms is to exclusively
digital content
2010Q2
2010Q1
2009Q4
2009Q3
2009Q2
2009Q1
2008Q4
2008Q3
2008Q2
2008Q1
2007Q4
2007Q3
2007Q2
2007Q1
2006Q4
2006Q3
2006Q2
2006Q1
2005Q4
2005Q3
2005Q2
2005Q1
2004Q4
2004Q3
2004Q2
2004Q1
2003Q4
0%
2003Q3
2003Q2 0.0
0
2003Q1 0.0
1
1.0
0.8
1.1
1.5
2
1.9
2.6
3
2.7
3.2
4
listening to BBC digital-only radio stations as % of all BBC radio listening [left axis]
listening to BBC digital-only radio stations as % of digital listening to BBC radio [right axis]
[source: RAJAR]
The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010
27

28. 23.1
26
20.6
20.5
20.4
2009 Q2
2009 Q3
2009 Q4
18.9
17.8
14.0
17.5
9.3
12
2008 Q2
11.9
14
13.3
13.5
16
17.9
15.3
18
16.8
20
2008 Q1
22
19.9
24
23.5
Weekly reach of radio platforms (% of adults 15+)
2010 Q2
UK radio listening by platform
2010 Q1
Grant Goddard
A separate RAJAR ‘MIDAS’ survey (that includes
non-linear radio consumption) demonstrates that
radio specialist
internet-delivered radio reaches almost as much
of the UK adult population as the DAB radio
platform
7.3
10
8
2.7
4
3.6
6
2
internet platform
2009 Q1
2008 Q4
2008 Q3
2007 Q4
2007 Q3
2007 Q2
2007 Q1
2006 Q4
2006 Q3
2006 Q2
2006 Q1
2005 Q4
2005 Q3
2005 Q2
2005 Q1
2004 Q4
2004 Q3
2004 Q2
2004 Q1
2003 Q4
2003 Q3
2003 Q2
2003 Q1
2002 Q4
2002 Q3
0
DAB platform
[source: RAJAR MIDAS]
The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010
28