Global insights audio-slides-09-02-11
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Global insights audio-slides-09-02-11
- 1. This chart accompanies the podcast recordedSeptember 2nd, 2011 WEEKLY WRAP Listen to the original podcast for this slide at eitherwww.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsightsorwww.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 2. This chart accompanies the podcast recordedSeptember 2nd, 2011 WEEKLY WRAP SOURCE: The Telegraph Listen to the original podcast for this slide at eitherwww.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsightsorwww.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 3. This chart accompanies the podcast recordedSeptember 2nd, 2011 BANK OF AMERICA – Ticking Bomb! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at eitherwww.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsightsorwww.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 4. This chart accompanies the podcast recordedSeptember 2nd, 2011 WEEKLY WRAP Listen to the original podcast for this slide at eitherwww.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsightsorwww.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 5. This chart accompanies the podcast recordedSeptember 2nd, 2011 WEEKLY WRAP Listen to the original podcast for this slide at eitherwww.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsightsorwww.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 6. This chart accompanies the podcast recordedSeptember 2nd, 2011 WEEKLY WRAP Listen to the original podcast for this slide at eitherwww.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsightsorwww.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 7. This chart accompanies the podcast recordedSeptember 2nd, 2011 SLOWING GROWTH MEANS SLOWING PROFITS Listen to the original podcast for this slide at eitherwww.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsightsorwww.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 8. This chart accompanies the podcast recordedSeptember 2nd, 2011 MARKET OVER PRICED Listen to the original podcast for this slide at eitherwww.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsightsorwww.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 9. This chart accompanies the podcast recordedSeptember 2nd, 2011 EVERYBODY IS NOW A MOMENTUM TRADER Listen to the original podcast for this slide at eitherwww.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsightsorwww.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 10. This chart accompanies the podcast recordedSeptember 2nd, 2011 WEEKLY WRAP Listen to the original podcast for this slide at eitherwww.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsightsorwww.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 11. DISCLOSURE STATEMENT AND TERMS OF USE THE CONTENT OF THIS SLIDE PRESENTATION AND ITS ACCOMPANYING RECORDED AUDIO DISCUSSION ARE INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not a solicitation to trade or invest, and any analysis is the opinion of the author and is not to be used or relied upon as investment advice. Trading and investing can involve substantial risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns/results. Commentary is only the opinions of the authors and should not to be used for investment decisions. You must carefully examine the risks associated with investing of any sort and whether investment programs are suitable for you. You should never invest or consider investments without a complete set of disclosure documents, and should consider the risks prior to investing. This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not in any way a substitution for disclosure. Suitability of investing decisions rests solely with the investor. Your acknowledgement of this Disclosure and Term of Use Statement is a condition of access to it. Furthermore, any investments you may make are your sole responsibility. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING AND INVESTING OF ANY KIND. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Listen to the original recording for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
Hinweis der Redaktion
- REVERSE PURCHASE AGREEMENTSCentral banks and official bodies have parked record sums of dollars at the US Federal Reserve for safe-keeping, indicating a clear loss of trust in commercial banks. Data from the St Louis Fed shows that reserve funds from "official foreign accounts" have doubled since the start of the year, with a dramatic surge since the end of July when the eurozone debt crisis spread to Italy and Spain. "This shows a pervasive loss of confidence in the European banking system, Central banks are worried about the security of their deposits so they are placing the money with the Fed." These dollar accounts are just over $100bn (£62bn) and are small beer compared to the vast sums invested in bonds as foreign reserve holdings. Yet they serve as stress indicator, reflecting the operating decisions of the world's top insiders. European banks are reduced to borrowing dollar funds for "a week at a time" rather than the usual six to 12 months. "This closely resembles what happened in late 2008, though the difference this time is that the major central banks have dollar swap lines in place. If the dollar funding markets completely freeze up, the European Central Bank can act as a backstop." FUNDING GAPDollar deposits of US banks have increased by $400bn since mid-June, mostly offset by dollar reductions in Europe. "It is clear that the problem lies with the European banks. The credit default swaps on these banks are very high and provide a risk gauge." The Bank for International Settlements says European and British banks have a dollar "funding gap" of up to $1.8 trillion stemming from global expansion during the boom that relies on dollar financing and has to be rolled over. This is not normally a problem but funding can seize up in a crisis. European banks are still struggling to access America's $7 trillion money market funds. Fitch Ratings said last week that Spanish and Italian banks have been cut off altogether. MARK-TO-MARKETEuropean officials hotly disputed claims in a leaked document from International Monetary Fund claiming that a realistic "mark-to-market" of Italian, Spanish, Greek, Irish, Portuguese and Belgian sovereign debt would reduce the tangible equity of Europe's banks by €200bn (£176bn). "French banks passed stress tests which were extremely tough less than a month ago: there is no cause for worry," said Valerie Pecresse, France's budget minister. "It is ill advised to provoke alarm," said Michael Kummer, head of Germany's BdB bank federation. The IMF was attacked as a Cassandra when it warned early in the credit crisis that debt write-downs would reach $600bn, yet losses have since reached $2.1 trillion. HAIRCUTSInvestors do not fully believe EU pledges that the 21pc "haircut" agreed for private holders of Greek debt is the end of the story, or will remain confined to Greece, as the second Greek rescue is already unravelling. A Greek parliament report concluded that deep recession is pushing the country into a downward spiral, causing debt dynamics to fly "out of control". Public debt will reach 172pc of GDP next year. Germany, Holland, and Finland may balk at a third rescue in the current tetchy mood, implying bigger haircuts instead. That will set a precedent for Portugal, and others. Until markets can see an end to the blood-letting, Europe's banks will remain untouchables.
- One sign of worry is the increasing reluctance of banks to use their balance sheets to facilitate trades, which has hit sectors from corporate bonds to the short-term repurchase market, where there is $1.6 trillion in triparty loans.For example, banks have reduced activity in the intra-dealer Treasury repurchase agreement market by 63 percent since the end of June, according to Barclays Capital.
- Here's a chart from Markit Economics[via Roubini, who tweets: "Indeed a double dip in the EZ. Time 4 ECB 2 cut rates“]A continuing series of dismal PMI readings in Europe.Greece hit a six-month low of 43.3 -- remember, anything under 50 shows contraction. German PMI fell to 50.9, the lowest level since September 2009. France fell to 49.1 from 50.5. Italy fell to 47, worst in two years. Spain contracted severely at 45.3. UK manufacturing hit a 26-month low of 49.The DAX is down 1.4%, leading declines across Europe.Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/eurozone-pmi-2011-9#ixzz1WjuTP5pUEurozonePMI plunged to a two-year low this morning, indicating a worse-than-expected slowdown and triggering declines for the euro on easing expectations.Manufacturing PMI -- regarded as an early indicator of recession -- fell to 49.0 in August from 50.4 in July, indicating that while GDP is still expanding manufacturing is stalled.According to Credit Suisse, inventories are at their highest since December 2008, but the lack of demand for goods means that manufacturers will probably have to cut production to reduce overhead in the months ahead. If we regard this orders-to-inventories statistic as an early indicator for manufacturing PMI and ISM, then we're likely to see these numbers slip further over the next few months.Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-europe-grinds-to-a-halt-2011-9#ixzz1Wk3FyhRS
- The Institute for Supply Management reported that its August Composite Index of factory sector activity dropped slightly to 50.6 from an unrevised 50.9 in July. Nevertheless, the figure was nearly the lowest since the economic recovery began two years ago. It compared favorably to Consensus expectations for a greater decline to 48.8. The reading continued to indicate positive, but slower, factory growth. It was the twenty-fifth consecutive monthly figure above the break-even level of 50 and was up from the low of 32.5 reached in December '08.The performance of the index's five components was mixed last month. The production and employment series declined sharply and production was below break-evenThe weakness in activity continued to hold back firms' ability to raise prices. The price reading of 55.5 was its lowest since November 2009. Twenty-nine percent of firms raised prices, less-than half that four months ago, while eighteen percent lowered them, the most in more than one year. During the last ten years there has been an 83% correlation between the index and the m/m change in the core intermediate producer price index.
- Here's a chart that shows the trajectory of GDP and profit growth.The U.S. is seeing its weakest economic recovery and strongest profit cycles in the post-war period. But at some point these trends have to converge through faster revenue or wage growth, according to SocieteGenerale analyst AnetaMarkowska: "Typically at this stage of the cycle, cost cutting gives way to an acceleration in employment gains. Margins contract, but consumer demand rises and the impact on the bottom line is cushioned by faster revenue growth. In this cycle, it is not obvious that this normal mechanism will catch on. If it does not, the cycle is at risk of being choked....With nominal GDP growth expected to average around 3.7% in the next two years… this means that profit growth is likely to settle down in low single digits. Any margin contraction – even a modest one – could push non-financial profits into negative territory."Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/socgen-chart-divergence-between-corporate-profits-and-gdp-growth-2011-8#ixzz1WjsRwtZq
- The Q Ratio is a popular method of estimating the fair value of the stock market developed by Nobel Laureate James Tobin.It's a fairly simple concept, but laborious to calculate.The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies.Fortunately, the government does the work of accumulating the data for the calculation.The numbers are supplied in the Federal Reserve Z.1 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States, which is released quarterly.Bottom Line: The Message of QThe mean-adjusted charts above indicate that the market remains significantly overvalued by historical standards — by about 48% in the arithmetic-adjusted version and 60% in the geometric-adjusted version. Of course periods of over- and under-valuation can last for many years at a time, so the Q Ratio is not a useful indicator for short-term investment timelines. This metric is more appropriate for formulating expectations for long-term market performance. As we can see in the next chart, the current level of Q has been associated with several market tops in history — the Tech Bubble being the notable exception.Read more: http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Q-Ratio-and-Market-Valuation.php#ixzz1Wk4nTEWa
- According to AAII's weekly poll of investor sentiment, bullish sentiment rose to 38.62% in the latest week. This now represents the fourth straight week where bullish sentiment has improved. It's hard to believe, but since S&P downgraded the AAA debt rating of the United States on August 5th, bullish sentiment has done nothing but go up.