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The Ubiquitously Connected Consumer
Charles S. Golvin, Principal Analyst



Prepared for Gomez
May 25, 2011




2   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
      2009
Agenda


The proliferation of connections
The changing smartphone market
Delivering mobile experiences




3   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
Agenda


The proliferation of connections
The changing smartphone market
Delivering mobile experiences




4   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
Think about these phrases

Dial a telephone
Sounds like a broken record
Watch your P’s and Q’s
Carriage return
Carbon copy (cc)
Ring up a sale
This too will fall into the same category:

                                                  Go online
5   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
The Net is rapidly becoming an
                         omnipresent, invisible source
                          for communication, content,
                         commerce, and comfort — a
                         different experience of online.




6   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
Three forces are at work


1. The expanding range of devices connected to the Net
2. Consumers’ growing reliance on the Net
3. Networks’ increasing ability to deliver the Net




7   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
Home connectivity’s evolution




8   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
New entertainment devices exploit the Net
Dumb stuff’s getting connected, too




9   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
The ultimate portable’s getting connected too




10   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
11   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
12   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
And all manner of new connections when on the go




13   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
Most online adults have multiple connected devices


                                                                                                              Types of
                                                                                                          connected devices
                                                                                                                   9+
                                                                                                                   8+
                                                                                                                   7+
                                                                                                                   6+
Millions of                                                                                                        5+
                 4.5 8.0 13.3 22.1                       37.0                57.7                79.3   105.3
US adults                                                                                                          4+
                                                                                                                   3+
                                                                                                                   2+




                                                                  Base: 3,990 US online adults
        Source: North American Technographics® Consumer Technology Online Benchmark Recontact Survey, Q2 2010 (US)
 14     © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
Connections beget more desire for connections
             Access wireless Internet on a PC outside of home or work

             I like the idea of being connected to the Internet no matter where I am in town (Those
             answering 4 or 5 on a scale of 1 Strongly disagree to 5 Strongly agree)
     80%


     60%


     40%


     20%


     0%
                   1      2       3       4       5       6       7      8                                 9+
                   Number of types of connected devices the respondent owns
                                                                Base: 3,990 US online adults

      Source: North American Technographics® Consumer Technology Online Benchmark Recontact Survey, Q2 2010 (US)
15    © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
More devices on the network? Sounds great

     $18 billion
     $32 billion
     So what?




16   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
Here’s the situation


     An expanding range of devices that deliver the Net at home, in the car,
     and everywhere else.
     Consumers increasingly hungry for and expectant that the Net is available
     any time, anywhere, on any device.

     And wide-reaching, high-speed networks continuing to evolve and enrich
     the experience of the Net, irrespective of location.




17   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
Agenda


 The proliferation of connections
 The changing smartphone market
 Delivering mobile experiences




18   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
Our phone taxonomy has three components


     Smartphones
       – Defined by the software platform: iOS, Android and other Linux variants,
         BlackBerryOS, Windows Phone, WebOS, PalmOS, and Symbian
       – Profile: male, high income, tech optimist, career motivated (early adopter)

     Quick messaging devices
       – Has a hard QWERTY keyboard and/or a touchscreen, but not a high-level OS
       – Profile: young, low income, tech optimist, heavy messaging user

     Feature phones
       – Everything left over
       – Profile: older, tech pessimist




19   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
At YE 2009, 1 in 3 US adults had a high-end phone
                                                                                  The EU number was
                                   “What kind of mobile phone do you own?”          nearly identical

                                                                           17%    17%
             Quick Messaging Device (QMD)
             Smartphone


                                                                    11%
                                                               9%
                               7%
               5%




                  YE 2007                                      YE 2008*      YE 2009†
         Base: 41,249 US adult mobile subscribers    Base: 37,327 US adult mobile subscribers
                                                       *
                              †
                               Base: 30,453 US adult mobile subscribers
     Source: North American Technographics® Benchmark Surveys, 2008-2010
20   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
Smartphones will become the US majority in 2014




21   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
Clearly this growth forecast implies some changes


     In particular, this can’t be an accurate profile of a 2014 smartphone owner:
       – male, high income, tech optimist, career motivated (early adopter)

     This growth has to come from a migration of more mainstream mobile
     subscribers, implying an emerging segmentation of smartphone owners
     We already see this segmentation emerging…




22   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
There are three types of smartphone owners




23   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
Those upgrading from basic phones are less
 advanced in their behavior




24   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
One-third of those upgrading from basic phones
 haven’t used any apps in the past three months
                               Categories of applications used in the past 3 months




25   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
Agenda


 The proliferation of connections
 The changing smartphone market
 Delivering mobile experiences




26   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
Apps versus the Web?


     It’s a false dichotomy
     With a range of different customers, different devices, different use
     models, and different needs across each, both are necessary.




27   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
One framework for drawing the distinction




 • One more measure: passion




28   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
One-third of subscribers access the mobile Net
                          “How frequently do you access the mobile Internet?”
                                                          87%
                 At least daily
                                                                          10%
                 At least weekly

                 At least monthly                                         26%




                                                         36%                                37%
                                                                                             6%
                                                          8%
                                                                          52%               12%
                                                         13%

                  7%
                                                                                            19%
              3%                                         15%
                 2%
              2%
        Feature phone                                    QMD           Smartphone         All mobile
                                              Base: 4,582 US online mobile phone owners
     Source: North American Technographics® Online Omnibus Survey, Q1 2011 (US)
29   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
Most app users also employ other methods
     “Thinking about the companies/brands you are able to interact with on your primary cell
                     phone, which methods of interactions have you used?”



                                                                                    6%
                                                                                    6%
                                                                                    7%
                                                                                    9%            Browser and SMS
                                                                                   13%            Browser only
                                                                                                  App and browser
      None                              One or more
                                                                                   20%            App only
      72%                                  28%
                                                                                                  App and SMS
                                                                                                  All three
                                                                                                  SMS only
                                                                                   40%
                                                                                               69% of US and 78% of
                                                                                                 EU subscribers say
                                                                                                they don’t use apps.

                                                Base: 3,866 US adults who own a mobile phone
      Source: North American Technographics® Benchmark Recontact Survey, Q3 2010 (US, Canada)
30    © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
Apps and the browser are complementary
                      “What type of content do you access on your cell phone's browser?”
                           “What type(s) of applications do you have on your cell phone?”

                                            Index of Web usage among app users vs non-app users
                                            Index of app usage among Web users vs non-Web users
                                            Index of app usage among Web users vs all

     Geo-location games/services
                                 Education
                          Health/Fitness
                                     Finance
                                        Travel                                           An index value of 100
                                  Shopping                                               means that the two
                    Social networking                                                    groups are equally likely
                 Mapping/navigation                                                      to engage in the activity.
                                         News
                                    Weather
                                      Games

                                                    0            200   400    600       800       1000     1200       1400
                                            Base: 1,159 US online adults who own a mobile phone
       Source: North American Technographics® Benchmark Recontact Survey, Q3 2010 (US, Canada)
31     © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
What is this?




32   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
33   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
34   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
35   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
How’s that? Sensors!


 1. GPS
 2. Accelerometer
 3. Gyroscope
 4. Camera
 5. Light sensor

 6. Microphone
 7. All them radios




36   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
And more are on the horizon


     NFC facilitates connections between mobile devices and places/things in
     the real world, providing orientation beyond location
     Additional sensors will take in other aspects of meatspace, such as
     barometric pressure, air quality

     Personal health sensors too — blood alcohol level, blood sugar level




37   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
Sensors enable new mobile experiences


     Interpret the visual world
     Annotate the visual world
     Inform and assist in context
     Simulate an experience




38   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
Summary

     Consumers are becoming ubiquitously connected.
     The market is changing as smartphones go mainstream.
     Apps and the Web are both critical to delivering mobile
     experiences to this mainstream audience.




39   © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
Thank you


Charles S. Golvin
+1 415.848.1311
cgolvin@forrester.com
www.forrester.com




  © 2009 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
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Top Tips To Deliver Quality Mobile Web And App Experiences To Smartphone Users

  • 1. d d d Y D t d ^ h K ^ ' ^ d W Z dK WD
  • 2. The Ubiquitously Connected Consumer Charles S. Golvin, Principal Analyst Prepared for Gomez May 25, 2011 2 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 2009
  • 3. Agenda The proliferation of connections The changing smartphone market Delivering mobile experiences 3 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 4. Agenda The proliferation of connections The changing smartphone market Delivering mobile experiences 4 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 5. Think about these phrases Dial a telephone Sounds like a broken record Watch your P’s and Q’s Carriage return Carbon copy (cc) Ring up a sale This too will fall into the same category: Go online 5 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 6. The Net is rapidly becoming an omnipresent, invisible source for communication, content, commerce, and comfort — a different experience of online. 6 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 7. Three forces are at work 1. The expanding range of devices connected to the Net 2. Consumers’ growing reliance on the Net 3. Networks’ increasing ability to deliver the Net 7 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 8. Home connectivity’s evolution 8 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 9. New entertainment devices exploit the Net Dumb stuff’s getting connected, too 9 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 10. The ultimate portable’s getting connected too 10 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 11. 11 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 12. 12 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 13. And all manner of new connections when on the go 13 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 14. Most online adults have multiple connected devices Types of connected devices 9+ 8+ 7+ 6+ Millions of 5+ 4.5 8.0 13.3 22.1 37.0 57.7 79.3 105.3 US adults 4+ 3+ 2+ Base: 3,990 US online adults Source: North American Technographics® Consumer Technology Online Benchmark Recontact Survey, Q2 2010 (US) 14 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 15. Connections beget more desire for connections Access wireless Internet on a PC outside of home or work I like the idea of being connected to the Internet no matter where I am in town (Those answering 4 or 5 on a scale of 1 Strongly disagree to 5 Strongly agree) 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9+ Number of types of connected devices the respondent owns Base: 3,990 US online adults Source: North American Technographics® Consumer Technology Online Benchmark Recontact Survey, Q2 2010 (US) 15 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 16. More devices on the network? Sounds great $18 billion $32 billion So what? 16 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 17. Here’s the situation An expanding range of devices that deliver the Net at home, in the car, and everywhere else. Consumers increasingly hungry for and expectant that the Net is available any time, anywhere, on any device. And wide-reaching, high-speed networks continuing to evolve and enrich the experience of the Net, irrespective of location. 17 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 18. Agenda The proliferation of connections The changing smartphone market Delivering mobile experiences 18 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 19. Our phone taxonomy has three components Smartphones – Defined by the software platform: iOS, Android and other Linux variants, BlackBerryOS, Windows Phone, WebOS, PalmOS, and Symbian – Profile: male, high income, tech optimist, career motivated (early adopter) Quick messaging devices – Has a hard QWERTY keyboard and/or a touchscreen, but not a high-level OS – Profile: young, low income, tech optimist, heavy messaging user Feature phones – Everything left over – Profile: older, tech pessimist 19 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 20. At YE 2009, 1 in 3 US adults had a high-end phone The EU number was “What kind of mobile phone do you own?” nearly identical 17% 17% Quick Messaging Device (QMD) Smartphone 11% 9% 7% 5% YE 2007 YE 2008* YE 2009† Base: 41,249 US adult mobile subscribers Base: 37,327 US adult mobile subscribers * † Base: 30,453 US adult mobile subscribers Source: North American Technographics® Benchmark Surveys, 2008-2010 20 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 21. Smartphones will become the US majority in 2014 21 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 22. Clearly this growth forecast implies some changes In particular, this can’t be an accurate profile of a 2014 smartphone owner: – male, high income, tech optimist, career motivated (early adopter) This growth has to come from a migration of more mainstream mobile subscribers, implying an emerging segmentation of smartphone owners We already see this segmentation emerging… 22 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 23. There are three types of smartphone owners 23 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 24. Those upgrading from basic phones are less advanced in their behavior 24 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 25. One-third of those upgrading from basic phones haven’t used any apps in the past three months Categories of applications used in the past 3 months 25 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 26. Agenda The proliferation of connections The changing smartphone market Delivering mobile experiences 26 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 27. Apps versus the Web? It’s a false dichotomy With a range of different customers, different devices, different use models, and different needs across each, both are necessary. 27 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 28. One framework for drawing the distinction • One more measure: passion 28 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 29. One-third of subscribers access the mobile Net “How frequently do you access the mobile Internet?” 87% At least daily 10% At least weekly At least monthly 26% 36% 37% 6% 8% 52% 12% 13% 7% 19% 3% 15% 2% 2% Feature phone QMD Smartphone All mobile Base: 4,582 US online mobile phone owners Source: North American Technographics® Online Omnibus Survey, Q1 2011 (US) 29 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 30. Most app users also employ other methods “Thinking about the companies/brands you are able to interact with on your primary cell phone, which methods of interactions have you used?” 6% 6% 7% 9% Browser and SMS 13% Browser only App and browser None One or more 20% App only 72% 28% App and SMS All three SMS only 40% 69% of US and 78% of EU subscribers say they don’t use apps. Base: 3,866 US adults who own a mobile phone Source: North American Technographics® Benchmark Recontact Survey, Q3 2010 (US, Canada) 30 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 31. Apps and the browser are complementary “What type of content do you access on your cell phone's browser?” “What type(s) of applications do you have on your cell phone?” Index of Web usage among app users vs non-app users Index of app usage among Web users vs non-Web users Index of app usage among Web users vs all Geo-location games/services Education Health/Fitness Finance Travel An index value of 100 Shopping means that the two Social networking groups are equally likely Mapping/navigation to engage in the activity. News Weather Games 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Base: 1,159 US online adults who own a mobile phone Source: North American Technographics® Benchmark Recontact Survey, Q3 2010 (US, Canada) 31 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 32. What is this? 32 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 33. 33 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 34. 34 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 35. 35 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 36. How’s that? Sensors! 1. GPS 2. Accelerometer 3. Gyroscope 4. Camera 5. Light sensor 6. Microphone 7. All them radios 36 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 37. And more are on the horizon NFC facilitates connections between mobile devices and places/things in the real world, providing orientation beyond location Additional sensors will take in other aspects of meatspace, such as barometric pressure, air quality Personal health sensors too — blood alcohol level, blood sugar level 37 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 38. Sensors enable new mobile experiences Interpret the visual world Annotate the visual world Inform and assist in context Simulate an experience 38 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 39. Summary Consumers are becoming ubiquitously connected. The market is changing as smartphones go mainstream. Apps and the Web are both critical to delivering mobile experiences to this mainstream audience. 39 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 40. Thank you Charles S. Golvin +1 415.848.1311 cgolvin@forrester.com www.forrester.com © 2009 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 41. d d d Y D t d ^ h ^ d dK WD
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  • 47. W D t W , d Z t ^ D W Z Z W ^ Z ^ • Z • / • W d Source: Gomez real user monitoring
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