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2. The Ubiquitously Connected Consumer
Charles S. Golvin, Principal Analyst
Prepared for Gomez
May 25, 2011
2 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
2009
3. Agenda
The proliferation of connections
The changing smartphone market
Delivering mobile experiences
3 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
4. Agenda
The proliferation of connections
The changing smartphone market
Delivering mobile experiences
4 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
5. Think about these phrases
Dial a telephone
Sounds like a broken record
Watch your P’s and Q’s
Carriage return
Carbon copy (cc)
Ring up a sale
This too will fall into the same category:
Go online
5 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
6. The Net is rapidly becoming an
omnipresent, invisible source
for communication, content,
commerce, and comfort — a
different experience of online.
6 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
7. Three forces are at work
1. The expanding range of devices connected to the Net
2. Consumers’ growing reliance on the Net
3. Networks’ increasing ability to deliver the Net
7 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
9. New entertainment devices exploit the Net
Dumb stuff’s getting connected, too
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13. And all manner of new connections when on the go
13 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
14. Most online adults have multiple connected devices
Types of
connected devices
9+
8+
7+
6+
Millions of 5+
4.5 8.0 13.3 22.1 37.0 57.7 79.3 105.3
US adults 4+
3+
2+
Base: 3,990 US online adults
Source: North American Technographics® Consumer Technology Online Benchmark Recontact Survey, Q2 2010 (US)
14 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
15. Connections beget more desire for connections
Access wireless Internet on a PC outside of home or work
I like the idea of being connected to the Internet no matter where I am in town (Those
answering 4 or 5 on a scale of 1 Strongly disagree to 5 Strongly agree)
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9+
Number of types of connected devices the respondent owns
Base: 3,990 US online adults
Source: North American Technographics® Consumer Technology Online Benchmark Recontact Survey, Q2 2010 (US)
15 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
16. More devices on the network? Sounds great
$18 billion
$32 billion
So what?
16 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
17. Here’s the situation
An expanding range of devices that deliver the Net at home, in the car,
and everywhere else.
Consumers increasingly hungry for and expectant that the Net is available
any time, anywhere, on any device.
And wide-reaching, high-speed networks continuing to evolve and enrich
the experience of the Net, irrespective of location.
17 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
18. Agenda
The proliferation of connections
The changing smartphone market
Delivering mobile experiences
18 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
19. Our phone taxonomy has three components
Smartphones
– Defined by the software platform: iOS, Android and other Linux variants,
BlackBerryOS, Windows Phone, WebOS, PalmOS, and Symbian
– Profile: male, high income, tech optimist, career motivated (early adopter)
Quick messaging devices
– Has a hard QWERTY keyboard and/or a touchscreen, but not a high-level OS
– Profile: young, low income, tech optimist, heavy messaging user
Feature phones
– Everything left over
– Profile: older, tech pessimist
19 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
20. At YE 2009, 1 in 3 US adults had a high-end phone
The EU number was
“What kind of mobile phone do you own?” nearly identical
17% 17%
Quick Messaging Device (QMD)
Smartphone
11%
9%
7%
5%
YE 2007 YE 2008* YE 2009†
Base: 41,249 US adult mobile subscribers Base: 37,327 US adult mobile subscribers
*
†
Base: 30,453 US adult mobile subscribers
Source: North American Technographics® Benchmark Surveys, 2008-2010
20 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
22. Clearly this growth forecast implies some changes
In particular, this can’t be an accurate profile of a 2014 smartphone owner:
– male, high income, tech optimist, career motivated (early adopter)
This growth has to come from a migration of more mainstream mobile
subscribers, implying an emerging segmentation of smartphone owners
We already see this segmentation emerging…
22 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
23. There are three types of smartphone owners
23 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
24. Those upgrading from basic phones are less
advanced in their behavior
24 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
25. One-third of those upgrading from basic phones
haven’t used any apps in the past three months
Categories of applications used in the past 3 months
25 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
26. Agenda
The proliferation of connections
The changing smartphone market
Delivering mobile experiences
26 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
27. Apps versus the Web?
It’s a false dichotomy
With a range of different customers, different devices, different use
models, and different needs across each, both are necessary.
27 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
28. One framework for drawing the distinction
• One more measure: passion
28 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
29. One-third of subscribers access the mobile Net
“How frequently do you access the mobile Internet?”
87%
At least daily
10%
At least weekly
At least monthly 26%
36% 37%
6%
8%
52% 12%
13%
7%
19%
3% 15%
2%
2%
Feature phone QMD Smartphone All mobile
Base: 4,582 US online mobile phone owners
Source: North American Technographics® Online Omnibus Survey, Q1 2011 (US)
29 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
30. Most app users also employ other methods
“Thinking about the companies/brands you are able to interact with on your primary cell
phone, which methods of interactions have you used?”
6%
6%
7%
9% Browser and SMS
13% Browser only
App and browser
None One or more
20% App only
72% 28%
App and SMS
All three
SMS only
40%
69% of US and 78% of
EU subscribers say
they don’t use apps.
Base: 3,866 US adults who own a mobile phone
Source: North American Technographics® Benchmark Recontact Survey, Q3 2010 (US, Canada)
30 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
31. Apps and the browser are complementary
“What type of content do you access on your cell phone's browser?”
“What type(s) of applications do you have on your cell phone?”
Index of Web usage among app users vs non-app users
Index of app usage among Web users vs non-Web users
Index of app usage among Web users vs all
Geo-location games/services
Education
Health/Fitness
Finance
Travel An index value of 100
Shopping means that the two
Social networking groups are equally likely
Mapping/navigation to engage in the activity.
News
Weather
Games
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Base: 1,159 US online adults who own a mobile phone
Source: North American Technographics® Benchmark Recontact Survey, Q3 2010 (US, Canada)
31 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
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36. How’s that? Sensors!
1. GPS
2. Accelerometer
3. Gyroscope
4. Camera
5. Light sensor
6. Microphone
7. All them radios
36 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
37. And more are on the horizon
NFC facilitates connections between mobile devices and places/things in
the real world, providing orientation beyond location
Additional sensors will take in other aspects of meatspace, such as
barometric pressure, air quality
Personal health sensors too — blood alcohol level, blood sugar level
37 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
38. Sensors enable new mobile experiences
Interpret the visual world
Annotate the visual world
Inform and assist in context
Simulate an experience
38 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
39. Summary
Consumers are becoming ubiquitously connected.
The market is changing as smartphones go mainstream.
Apps and the Web are both critical to delivering mobile
experiences to this mainstream audience.
39 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
40. Thank you
Charles S. Golvin
+1 415.848.1311
cgolvin@forrester.com
www.forrester.com
© 2009 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
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