Richard Cuerden, Chief Scientist and Research Director, Transport Research Laboratory (TRL)

The potential for vehicle safety standards to
prevent deaths and injuries in Latin America
An assessment of the societal and economic impact of inaction
Authors: C. Wallbank, K. McRae-McKee, L. Durrell & D. Hynd
Presented by: Richard Cuerden
27 October 2016

© Copyright 2016 TRL Ltd
 About TRL
 Background
 Method
 Results
 Conclusions
 Recommendations
 Acknowledgments
2
The potential for vehicle safety standards to prevent
deaths and injuries in Latin America
An assessment of the societal and economic
impact of inaction

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4
Background
 According to the World Health Organisation (WHO):
 over 1.25 million people died due to road collisions in 2013
 up to 50 million more people were seriously injured
 > 90% road casualties occur in low- and middle-income countries
 Economic growth and increasing motorisation is predicted to
cause more road casualties, particularly in emerging economies
 The Decade of Action for Road Safety (2011-2020) was adopted
by the United Nations (UN) General Assembly in 2010 in
response to this predicted rise
 The UN Member States have adopted a target to halve road
traffic deaths and injuries by 2020 (relative to 2010)
 part of the Global Goals for Sustainable Development (UN 2016)

 The Global Plan for the Decade of Action is organised around the
5 pillars of the ‘Safe System’ approach
 Safer vehicles: Only 40 countries worldwide apply all of the most
important (minimum) vehicle safety standards:
 Approved seat belts and anchorages for all seating positions (UN
Regulations 14 and 16)
 Occupant protection in frontal collision (UN Regulation 94)
 Occupant protection in side or lateral collisions (UN Regulation 95)
 Pedestrian protection (GTR 9; UN Regulation 127)
 Electronic Stability Control (ESC) (GTR 8; UN Regulation 13H)
5
Background
Road Safety
Management
Safer
Roads and
Mobility
Safer
Vehicles
Safer Road
Users
Post-Crash
Response

 Quantify how many car user fatalities and
serious injuries could be prevented in Argentina,
Chile and Mexico if:
 Minimum secondary safety measures (UN
Regulations 14, 16, 94 and 95) were adopted
 The New Car Assessment Programme for Latin
America and the Caribbean (Latin NCAP)
stimulates further vehicle improvements
 Incorporate the results from the Brazil study
(Cuerden et al. 2015; TRL PPR766)
 Quantify the economic burden for Argentina,
Brazil, Chile, and Mexico associated with not
adopting minimum car secondary safety
standards
6
Aims of the study

7
3
Predict the benefits of car secondary in the emerging markets:
Estimate the number of fatalities that would be saved in the emerging
markets if the secondary safety benefits seen in GB are experienced (based
on the likely fleet growth and baseline year, from 2016 to 2030)
4
Monetise the preventable casualties:
The human life savings are quantified economically using the Value of
Statistical Life method associated with GDP (Bhalla et al. 2013)
2
Establish a baseline year in the emerging markets:
Identify the equivalent ‘car secondary safety’ age (year) in the current
vehicle fleet in the emerging markets compared to the EU (GB)
1
Quantify the effectiveness of car secondary safety in GB:
Assess the reduction in car user fatalities due to car secondary safety
Method

8
Results – 1. Car secondary safety in GB
Non built up roadsBuilt up roads
Modelled fatality proportion by registration year for car drivers
(males 25-59, small family cars, 2013)
Data from GB is used to quantify how many car users would have been killed if
secondary safety had not improved (EU Regulation + Euro NCAP)

9
(Vehicle Manufacturers)
Vehicle design and casualty prevention
Results – 2. Establish a baseline year

10
EURO NCAP (1997 test)Latin NCAP (2010 test)
3
Examples of car residual crush damage comparisons and classifications
98

11
Baseline year for 2015
Actual
(estimated)
casualty
numbers
Estimated
casualty
numbers if
secondary
safety had
not
improved
Estimated
reduction in
casualties due to
secondary safety
improvements
2002 (Argentina) 11,961 12,610 650
2003 (Chile) 11,078 11,790 712
2000 (Mexico) 13,469 14,419 950
1995 (Alternative baseline) 16,275 18,951 2,676
Based on an engineering visual assessment of the
performance of cars in Latin and Euro NCAP,
frontal impacts only, we considered:
 Structural integrity of the passenger compartment
at the A-pillar and sill
 Degree of deformation of the A-pillar and/or sill
 Stability of the steering column
 Provision of front airbags
 Stability of airbag contact (for the driver)
Conservative assumptions for ‘Baseline years’:
 Many cars not subject to side impact test
 Different safety features and technologies e.g. no
side curtain airbags

12
Baseline year for 2015
Actual
(estimated)
casualty
numbers
Estimated
casualty
numbers if
secondary
safety had
not
improved
Estimated
reduction in
casualties due to
secondary safety
improvements
Proportional
casualty saving
over 15 years
assuming vehicle
secondary safety
remained at
baseline year
2002 (Argentina) 11,961 12,610 650 5.2%
2003 (Chile) 11,078 11,790 712 6.0%
2000 (Mexico) 13,469 14,419 950 6.6%
1995 (Alternative baseline) 16,275 18,951 2,676 14.1%
Estimated car driver fatality numbers over a 15 year period in GB
if secondary safety had remained at level of the baseline year

13
Results – 3. Predicting the benefits
Car occupant fatality rate (per million registered cars) for Chile, 2005-2014)

The possible baseline scenarios for car registration growth in Chile
from 2015 to 2030 have been devised as:
A. The trend in car registrations continues to grow linearly at the
current rate: an average annual rate of 5.2% relative to 2014
B. The trend in car registrations continues to grow linearly at an
average annual rate of 0.9% relative to 2014
C. The trend in car registrations continues to grow linearly at an
average annual rate of 6.0% relative to 2014
D. The trend in car registrations continues to grow linearly as in
scenario (A), but also encompasses a gradual move from
motorcycles to cars. This is equivalent to an annual average
increase of 5.7%
14

15
Predicted growth in registered cars (Chile)
Motorisation rate
(B) Annual rate of 0.9%

16
Predicted fatalities (Chile) based on modelled fleet growth and no car
secondary safety improvements
(B) Annual rate of 0.9%
(C) Annual rate of 6.0%

17
Scenario
Number of
fatalities
predicted
without vehicle
safety
developments
Similar timescale Quicker timescale
Saving in
fatalities
Proportional
saving
Saving in
fatalities
Proportional
saving
A 8,312 569 6.8% 711 8.6%
B 6,313 394 6.2% 492 7.8%
C 8,680 601 6.9% 752 8.7%
D 8,542 589 6.9% 737 8.6%
Potential fatality savings in Chile between 2016 and 2030 due to
secondary safety developments from the baseline of 2003
If minimum vehicle standards were applied now (2016), by 2030 we predict:
 Between 390 and 750 fatalities in Chile would be prevented (2003 baseline)
 Between 690 and 1,320 fatalities in Chile would be prevented (1995 baseline)

 If minimum vehicle standards were applied now (2016), by 2030
we predict that the following fatalities could be saved:
 Between 570 and 1,400 fatalities in Argentina
 Between 390 and 750 fatalities in Chile
 Between 900 and 3,500 fatalities in Mexico
 Between 12,000 and 34,000 fatalities in Brazil (Cuerden et al. 2015)
 Between 14,000 and 40,000 car occupant fatalities could be
prevented across the Latin American region
 The number of killed or seriously injured car user casualties
prevented by improvements to secondary safety could be in the
region of 160,000 to 440,000
18

19
Results – 4. Monetise the preventable casualties
GDP per capita
(2014)
(current USD)
(World Bank Group,
2016a)
Economic loss of
one death due to
traffic collision
(current USD,
thousands)
Economic loss of
one serious injury
due to traffic
collision
(current USD,
thousands)
Argentina 12,509.5 876 – 1,721 213
Chile 14,528.3 1,017 – 1,999 247
Mexico 10,325.6 723 – 1,421 176
Brazil 11,726.8 821 – 1,614 199
UK 46,297.0 3,241 – 6,370 787
Economic loss of death and serious injury using VSL method

20
Results – 4. Monetise the preventable casualties
Potential economic savings between 2016 and 2030 due to
secondary safety improvements
Car occupant fatalities
prevented
Economic saving as a result
of the fatalities prevented
(current USD, millions)
Argentina 570 - 1,400 500 - 2,500
Chile 390 - 750 400 - 1,500
Mexico 900 - 3,500 700 - 5,000
Brazil 12,500 - 34,200 10,300 - 55,200
Total 14,000 - 40,000 11,900 - 64,200
When serious injury savings are also considered, the benefit could
be an additional 79 billion USD – total of 143 billion USD

This study concludes that if the car secondary safety benefits seen in Great
Britain over the past decade were efficiently applied to the Latin American
region between 2016 and 2030:
 40,000 car user fatalities could be prevented
 440,000 killed or seriously injured car user casualties prevented
 The total monetary benefit could be up to 143 billion USD
We estimate that:
 Today’s Latin American cars are performing approximately 15 years
behind cars in Great Britain
 However, due to the absence of side impact tests and differences in
the fitment of safety features, it is possible that cars in these emerging
markets are actually up to 20 years behind those in Great Britain in
terms of performance in a crash
The benefits expressed represent conservative estimates
21
Conclusions

TRL report PPR797 quote:
“The lessons that have been learnt from the development and
evaluation of vehicle safety standards and assessment programmes
in industrialised regions should be quickly and cost effectively
applied in emerging markets, so that vehicle safety is a right for all,
regardless of wealth”
22
Conclusions

Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico have successfully
started the legislative process, but are at different
stages and to achieve the casualty reductions
predicted, they must all:
 Mandate UN Regulations 94 & 95
 Continue to develop Latin NCAP to ensure cars
are designed to exceed the minimum regulatory
thresholds
Other candidates for urgent regulatory action
include:
 Pedestrian protection (GTR 9; UN Regulation 127)
 Electronic Stability Control (ESC) (GTR 8; UN
Regulation 13H)
23
Recommendations

 This study has considered vehicle safety, which is
one of the five UN pillars of action
 It is important to emphasise that a “Safe
System” approach requires action with respect
to safer roads, vehicles and road users
 For example, car users must wear seat belts for
the vehicle safety engineering improvements to
be effective
 Finally, there is a global requirement for better
and more harmonised data on road traffic
fatalities and injuries
 Road casualty data is essential to evaluate
progress, identify priorities and to develop
tailored prevention measures
More details: TRL Report PPR797
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Recommendations

This research was funded by Global NCAP and the
authors are indebted to David Ward and Jessica
Truong from Global NCAP for their support and
guidance.
The authors are grateful to Alejandro Furas and
Carolina Pereira from Latin NCAP, Stephan Brodziak
at El poder del Consumidor and Alberto Escobar
Poblete at Automóvil Club de Chile for contributing
their knowledge and data to this research.
Finally, the authors would like to thank Louise Lloyd
and Richard Cuerden from TRL for their assistance
and technical review of the work.
25
Acknowledgements

Thank you
Any questions?
Richard Cuerden
Chief Scientist & Research Director
rcuerden@trl.co.uk

Richard Cuerden, Chief Scientist and Research Director, Transport Research Laboratory (TRL)

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