2. Who 3D Prints What in 2033?Greek Euro Exit: A “Lose-Lose” Scenario
Contrary to conventional wisdom, there is no scenario in which either Greece or the rest of Europe “wins” the current
standoff over Greece’s bailout and debt repayments. If Greece must leave the Eurozone, there will only be losers. This
intriguing insight resulted from a week-long crowdsourced simulation conducted by Wikistrat in March 2015, in which
45 analysts collectively rendered the future of such a scenario.
Northern European governments especially believe that if Greece defaults on its debt obligations and is made to leave
the Euro, the damage could be contained. They argue that in contrast to 2012 – when the Eurozone crisis was at its peak
and Greece got a second €130 billion bailout on top of the €110 billion in financial support it had received two years
earlier – the risk of “contamination” is limited. Fears that a Greek exit from the currency union will trigger a domino
effect and force other countries (such as Portugal, Spain and Italy) to leave as well now seem overblown. Not only have
the fiscal conditions of these countries improved, the rest of the EU – specifically the European Central Bank – is ready to
offer enormous liquidity support to affected banks should a “Grexit” or “Graccident” (i.e. Greece going bankrupt within
the Eurozone) take place, preventing the crisis from spreading.
Nevertheless,therepercussionsfortheGreekeconomywouldremaingrave.Anewcurrencywouldhavetobeintroduced
and would be instantly depreciated. Limits would have to be placed on withdrawals from ATMs; companies could go
bankrupt. The price of imported goods, including food products, fuel and medicine, would skyrocket, leading to more
purchases on the black market. The subsequent rise of inflation, government debt and unemployment would cause a
deep recession and a sharp drop in the standard of living.
The counterargument that Greece would eventually benefit from cheaper exports and booming tourism is misleading
given that Greece’s shortcomings in these two areas have little to do with the euro. As long as structural reforms are
delayed in taxation, trade, transportation or land use, existing weaknesses and irregularities would not be relieved but
rather exacerbated in a time of recession.
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3. In addition, this counterargument presupposes a stable and consensual political environment. However, the experience
of the last few Greek elections, which have seen large and sudden swings in favor of and then against mainstream
parties, reveals this to be wishful thinking.
The current public debate, which focuses on the now-reduced and manageable risk of a Greek exit from the Euro,
underestimates the political implications of this scenario for both Greece and the EU as a whole. Greece has witnessed
riots and looting similar to those in Argentina when it defaulted on its debt 14 years ago, and the threat of economic
collapse and political chaos is no dystopian fantasy – it is a realistic outcome.
Since the outbreak of the financial crisis, the Greeks’ rising anger with their political elites and the prevalent national
narrative of self-victimization has allowed both left- and right-wing populism and extremism to take root. This would
only get worse in a context of self-imposed international isolation.
In the absence of a European orientation, Greece would probably seek alternatives in the East, such as support from
China or Russia. Voters’ desire to “punish” Europe for the deepening crisis could justify such unorthodox alliances. A
Greek exit from the Eurozone would thus quickly call the country’s EU membership into question as well.
The repercussions for the EU as a whole should not be underestimated either. Greece became a member of the European
Economic Community in the early 1980s for geostrategic reasons, and not much in the region has changed since then.
Southeastern Europe is tilting dangerously toward subtle forms of authoritarianism and ethnic tensions are waiting to
be revived and exploited, and Greece stands out as a relatively liberal democracy. Russia’s expansive tendencies in the
Black Sea region and the steady influx of migrants and refugees from Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia across
the Aegean Sea underscore the rest of Europe’s need to not turn an ally here into an enemy.
Europe is not prepared institutionally or politically to face a scenario of disintegration. Though the risk of a “domino
effect” is arguably lower than it was a few years ago, the EU still needs to find convincing alternatives for those member
states that cannot fully participate in European integration, while avoiding the emergence of a centrifugal, multispeed
Europe.
ATTRIBUTIONS
[COVER PHOTO] This work, “Cover”, is a derivative of “Athens” by runner310 / photo on flickr, is licensed under CC BY; by [Natalie Boyajian].
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4. June 2013
Request access to Wikistrat Simulations:
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Written by: Dr. Amanda Skuldt & James McGirk in consultation with
Dr. Thomas PM Barnett, Wikistratís Chief Analyst
Edited by: Steve Keller
There were more than 60 analysts participating.
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Who
3D PrintsWhat in 2033?