According to the most recent estimates, 2014 emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), the main contributor to global climate change, are projected to be 2.5 percent higher than 2013 levels, which translates into the release of 37 billion additional tons of CO2 into the atmosphere. As negotiators wrap up their talks at the international climate conference in Lima, Peru, there is no indication that this trend will change soon. Scientists estimate that future emissions should not exceed 1,200 billion tons of CO2, in order to keep Earth's temperature increase to no more than 2 degrees Celsius and to avoid severe and irreversible environmental effects. Yet at the current rate of emissions, this remaining “quota” would be used up in less than a generation, writes Joel Stronberg, contributing author for the Worldwatch Institute’s (www.worldwatch.org) Vital Signs Online.

1. Vital Signs
TEXT HERE
Can we avoid the two
degree threshold?

2. TEXT HERE
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is the main
contributor to global climate change
It is believed that warming the earth by 2
degrees Celsius will have severe and
irreversible global environmental effects
"CO2 Emissions Set to Reach New 40 Billion Tonne Record High in 2014," press release
(Norwich, U.K.: Tyndall Center for Climate Research, 22 September 2014).

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To prevent this temperature increase, total
future emissions cannot exceed 1,200
billion tons
"CO2 Emissions Set to Reach New 40 Billion Tonne Record High in 2014," press release (Norwich,
U.K.: Tyndall Center for Climate Research, 22 September 2014).

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In 2013, global combustion of fossil fuels
and the production of cement resulted in
the emission of 36.1 billion tons of CO2.
2014 emissions are projected to be 2.5%
over 2013 levels
Global Carbon Project, "Global Carbon Budget 2014," Power Point Presentation, 21 September 2014. Note
that all figures cited are in metric tons.

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Without more aggressive global mitigation
actions, the 2 degrees threshold could be
crossed before 2041

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Reaching carbon net neutrality
between 2055 and 2070 is essential
to minimizing the risk of severe,
pervasive, and in some cases,
irreversible climate change impacts
U.N. Environment Programme, “UN Says Global Carbon Neutrality Should be Reached
by Second Half of Century, Demonstrates Pathways to Stay Under 2°C Limit,” press
release (Nairobi: 19 November 2014).

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The United States ranks first in
per person emissions from the
combustion of fossil fuels. China
is ranked second.
Stefan Nicola, “China Surpasses EU in Per-Capita Pollution for First Time,” Bloomberg
News, 22 September 2014.

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Carbon Dioxide is the most
prevalent greenhouse gas but
methane is the most potent,
trapping 86 times the heat of CO2
Joe Romm, “Methane Leaks Wipe Out Any Benefit of Fracking, Satellite Observations
Confirm,” Thinkprogress.org, 22 October 2014.

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Greenhouse gas emissions mainly
come from energy supply,
industrial processes, forestry,
agriculture, and transportation.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), “Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Data,” at www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html, based on IPCC
data.

10. Failure to meet previously
established climate goals is due to
the falling prices of coal, natural
gas and petroleum, among other
things
REN21, Renewables Global Status Report 2014 (Paris: 2014), p. 15.

11. TEXT HERE
Slowdown in global economic
growth causes industrial nations
to limit support for clean energy
alternatives

12. TEXT
HERE
Expanding world population and
the growth of developing-
country economies also
contributes to the rising
greenhouse gas emissions

13. TEXT HERE
Halving the rate of deforestation
and restoring significant acres of
deforested lands worldwide by
2030 could reduce carbon
emissions by between 4.5 billion
and 8.8 billion tons of CO2
“UN Climate Summit Pledges to Halt Loss of Natural Forests by
2030,” (London) Guardian, 23 September 2014.

14. TEXT HERE
Clean energy alternatives,
like solar and wind power, are
available and are decreasing
in cost
REN21, Renewables Global Status Report 2014 (Paris: 2014), p. 28

15. TEXT HERE
Many larger developing nations are
investing in sustainable energy
industries. China invested $56.3 billion in
renewable energy in 2013
REN21, Renewables Global Status Report 2014 (Paris: 2014), p. 68

16. Full analysis, sources,
and data available at:
http://bit.ly/1uUrKTB

17. about us
WORLDWATCH
INSTITUTE
VITAL SIGNS
ONLINE
Through research and outreach that
inspire action, the Worldwatch
Institute works to accelerate the
transition to a sustainable world that
meets human needs.
Vital Signs Online provides
business leaders, policymakers,
and engaged citizens with the latest
data and analysis to understand
critical global trends.
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