1. Business Continuity
Management within the
Concept of Integrative Risk
and Disaster Management – A
Holistic Approach
Walter J. Ammann,
President Global Risk Forum GRF Davos
Davos, Switzerland
BCM IDRC Post -Conference
www.grforum.org Walter J. Ammann
31 August 2012 1

2. RISKS – THE VALUE AT RISK SIDE
Values exposed to hazards
Damage potential
BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann
31 August 2012 2

3. RISKS - VALUES EXPOSED TO HAZARDS
Damage Potential (what can be affected?)
• Human lives and health
• Live-stock (urbanisation)
• Critical Infrastructures and Services
(Hospitals, schools, transportation, energy,
food, water, waste-water, etc.)
• Communication (IT infrastructure)
• Production (Industry)
• Image, reputation
• Etc
BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann
31 August 2012 3

4. RISK – THE THREAT SIDE
Processes
BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann
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5. RISK – THE POTENTIAL INTERATCTION SIDE
Values exposed to hazards Processes
Damage potential
RISK
BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann
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6. (MATHEMATICAL) DEFINITION OF RISK
RISK = Hazard x Values at Risk x Vulnerability
Climate Change Humans, All values are
will increase the Animals, Assets, vulnerable.
frequency and Infrastructures, Vulnerability can
intensity Services, be reduced with
Environment measures
Resilience
BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann
31 August 2012 6

7. CHARACTERISTICS OF CASCADING EFFECTS
Uncertainties:
Primary Event • Intensity
cause and effect • Effects
• Interactions
• response
Secondary
Secondary
Secondary
Event Event Event
Intentional
(external)
threats/attacks
Subsequent Interactions Secondary
Event Event
Subsequent Secondary
Event Event
BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann
31 August 2012 7

8. Water
treatment works Railway station
Fire station Broadband antenna
Electricity sub-station
Hospital
Supermarket
Power station
Waste water
treatment works
FLOOD SITUATION
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Walter J. Ammann

9. RISK MANAGEMENT (RISK MATRIX)
frequent
possible Technical
Probability
Other
rare
very rare
Natural
improbable
insignificant small perceptible critical catastrophic
IMPACT
BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann
31 August 2012 9

10. IRM - RISK REDUCTION & DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Integrative Risk Management IRM concentrates
equally on all phases of the risk circle - on prevention,
intervention and recovery
System approach
BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann
31 August 2012 10

11. IRM – THE RISK REDUCTION STAIR-CASE
Prevention
Technical measures
Organisational measures
Avoiding, eliminiating Recovery
Education
Rehabilitation Training
Total original risk level
risk situations Insurance
Intervention
Risk reduction Organizational measures
Emergency/ Crisis Management
by preventive
measures
Emergency
Management
Risk Transfer (Micro-)
Insurance
Self-Responsibility
(Residual Risk)
mitigate, adopt, share, suffer,
BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann
31 August 2012 11

12. THE HUMAN FACTOR - RESILIENCE
Damage as a result of human
actions and behaviour
Timely and appropriate
intervention influences extent of
damage and human behaviour
Robustness- redundancy –
resilience: A resilient system
helps to recover faster and to
keep secondary damage
contained
BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann
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13. Schematic of Resilience
Event
Resilience is high if A is small
100%
(Vulnerability)
Functionality
A
Functionality
Loss in
Robustness
Recovery Time
Time
t event t recovery
BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann
31 August 2012 13

14. Resilience
100% Vulnerability
Resilience
Service Level
Functionality,
Recovery Time Time
t event t recovery
BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann
31 August 2012 14

15. SUMMARY – SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES
• All hazards approach for risk analysis and
assessment, (cascading effects!) – Risk
Matrix.
• Integrative risk management (prevention,
preparedness, intervention/ response,
recovery)
• Resilience, robustness, redundancy
• Proportionality, cost effectiveness, cost-
efficiency
• Communication, awareness raising
BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann
31 August 2012 15

16. FROM THOUGHTS TO ACTION!
Vision without action – a day-dream
Action without vision – a nightmare
Jan Egeland, Kobe 2005
THANK YOU FOR YOUR
ATTENTION!
CONTACT INFORMATION
walter.ammann@grforum.org
Global Risk Forum GRF Davos
Promenade 35
CH-7270 Davos
Phone: +41 (0) 81 414 1600
Fax: +41 (0) 81 414 1610
info@grforum.org
www.grforum.org
BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann
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