GRF 2nd One Health Summit 2013: Presentation by VANWAMBEKE, Sophie O, Université catholique de Louvain

1. One health as a tool to strengthen
interactions between risk modelling and
veterinary and human public health
Sophie O. Vanwambeke, UCLouvain
Katrien Tersago, Uantwerp
Luigi Sedda, UOxford

3. Needs for public health
• Accurate info in summarized form, eg: early warning,
risk vs. non risk,… accounting for changing human
behaviour
• Rapid and excellent interconnections between all
actors: practitioners, PH agencies, modellers

4. Modelling today
AUC? ROC?
GLM? GWR?
AIC? BIC?
• Modellers absorbed by modelling
• Entry points into modelling often diverse
• Modelling methods and data sets, while more
broadly accessible, are also getting more complex.
• Diversity of outcomes (eg maximise info vs.
Minimise error)

5. An example: hantavirus
Minimize error strategy: prediction
Sedda and Tersago, in progress
Maximise information: explore environmental
determinants
Zeimes et al, 2012
EDENext steering committee meeting, Budapest, 31 March 2011
5

6. How can one health help
• Support interpretation of factors and complex
processes represented in models for zoonotic
diseases
• Facilitate communication across disciplines
• Optimise use of resources for surveillance and
control
• EDENext!

7. Lessons learned
• Modellers should
communicate better, from
the onset, on PH
knowledge of the system,
and on information content
of modelling results.
• Modellers should highlight
better the PH relevant
information of model
outputs
Questions asked
• How do modellers need to
change their modelling
practice?
• What does risk -as a
modelling output- mean?
How to come up with
model outputs relevant to
risk assessment?