PD Dr. Jörn Birkmann, United Nations University (UNU-EHS), Germany

1. Rio+20 and The Future of Sustainability
and Disaster Risk Reduction
Global Risk Forum Davos
The IPCC SREX Report
Content, Process, Knowledge and Outlook
PD Dr. Joern BIRKMANN

2. The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks
of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance
Climate Change Adaptation

3. Selected Questions
•What are extreme events?
•Do extreme events cause extreme impacts?
•What is the present knowledge regardingt the relation between
climate change and extreme events?
•What are key determinants of (disaster) risk?
•Which management options do exist to reduce disaster risk and
promote resilience or transformation?
•Which knowledge is taken into account for the IPCC SREX report?

4. A changing climate leads to changes in extreme
weather and climate events
4

5. Impacts from weather and climate events depend on:
nature and severity of event
vulnerability
exposure
5

6. Since 1950, extreme hot days and heavy precipitation
have become more common
There is evidence that anthropogenic influences, including increasing
atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, have changed these extremes
6

7. Climate models project more frequent hot days
throughout the 21st century
In many regions, the time between “20-year” (unusually)
warm days will decrease
7

8. Starting point:
Climate models versus vulnerability perspective

9. Increasing vulnerability, exposure, or severity
and frequency of climate events increases
disaster risk
(Source: IPCC 2012, slightly modified by Birkmann)

10. Vulnerability has to be addressed
in different dimensions (IPCC 2012, p. 70-88)
Vulnerability Dimensions Capacities
 Social dimension (e.g.  Coping
housing conditions, poverty, capacities
lack of social networks)  Adaptive
 Economic dimension capacities
(property loss, lack of  Resilience
insurances)
building
 Environmental dimension
(e.g. environmental services)
 Cultural dimension
(risk perception)
 Institutional dimension
(e.g. governance)
(Photos: Birkmann 2008)

11. Increasing exposure of people and assets has been the
major cause of changes in disaster losses
Pakistan floods, 2010
6 million left homeless
11

12. Language of the report
•It is very likely that there has been an overall decrease in the number
of cold days and nights, and an overall increase in the number of warm
days and nights at a global scale. (...)
In many regions over the globe with sufficient data, there is medium
confidence that the length or number of warm spells or heat waves has
increased. (Chap. 3)
IPCC 2012
•Virtually certain (99-100%)
Very likely (90-100%)
Likely (66-100%)....
..IPCC 2012

13. Managing the risks: heat waves in Europe
Risk Factors Risk Management/
Adaptation
 lack of access
to cooling  cooling in public
facilities
 age
 warning systems
 pre-existing
health  social care
problems networks
 poverty and  urban
isolation green space
France, August 2003 (over 14,000 dead)
 infrastructure  changes in urban
infrastructure
Projected: likely increase in heat wave frequency and very likely
increase in warm days and nights across Europe
13

14. There are strategies that can help manage
disaster risk now and also help improve
people’s livelihoods and well-being
The most effective strategies offer development benefits in the relatively near
term and reduce vulnerability over the longer term

15. Conclusions
•The Special IPCC report SREX is a prime example of an emerging
cooperation between Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change
Adaptation. This cooperation has also to be strengthened in various countries,
e.g. between different ministries.
•Exposure and vulnerability are dynamic. Hence we need also to develop
different scenarios for vulnerability and risks (in addition to climate change
scenarios).
•Vulnerability and risk assessment as well as adaptation strategies need to
combine different data and knowledge sources as well as methodologies.
People are already adapting to climate change and climate variability with
very different measures.
•Lastly, we have to critically review structural adaptation measures that might
have worked in the past, but might not work in the future.

16. Thank you very much
References
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2012) : Managing the Risks of
Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation; Special
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; [Field, C.; Barros, V.;
Stocker, T.F.; Qin, D.; Dokken, D.; Ebi, K.L. Mastrandrea, M.D. Mach, K.; Plattner, G.-K.;
Allen, S.K.; Tignor, M. and P.M. Midgley (eds.)], Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge
Birkmann, J.; Welle, T.; Krause, D.; Wolfertz, J.; Suarez, D.C.; Setiadi, N. (2011):
WorldRiskIndex: Concept and Results. In: Alliance Development Works (ed.): The
WorldRiskReport 2011, Berlin: 13-42
Birkmann, J; Garschagen, M.; Von Van, T.; Nguyen Thanh, B. (2012): Vulnerability,
Coping and Adaptation to Water Related Hazards in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. In:
Renaud, F.G.; Kuenzer, C. (eds.): The Mekong Delta System: Interdisciplinary Analyses PD Dr. Joern Birkmann
of a River Delta, Springer, New York: 245-289 Head of Section
Birkmann, J. (2011): First and Second-Order Adaptation to Natural Hazards and Extreme
Events in the Context of Climate Change. Natural Hazards 58(2): 811-840; United Nations University
Institute for Environment
Birkmann, J.; Buckle, P., Jaeger, J.; Pelling, M.; Setiadi, N.; Garschagen, M.; Fernando, and Human Security
N.; Kropp, J. (2010): Extreme Events and Disasters: A Window of Opportunity for
Change? Analysis of Changes, Formal and Informal Responses After Mega-Disasters, Bonn, Germany,
Natural Hazards 55(3): 637-655
Garschagen, M.; Diez, J.R; Nhan, D.K.; Kraas, F. (2012): Socio-Economic Development
birkmann@ehs.unu.edu
in the Mekong Delta: Between the Prospects for Progress and the Realms of Reality, In:
Renaud, F.G.; Kuenzer, C. (eds.): The Mekong Delta System: Interdisciplinary Analyses www.ehs.unu.edu
of a River Delta, Springer, New York: 83-132