Assure Ecommerce and Retail Operations Uptime with ThousandEyes
Climate impacts on food and farming
1. Integrated modelling of climate
impacts on food and farming at
regional to supranational scales
Session 212
2. Schedule
16:40 Banse et al.: MACSUR
17:00 Dono et al.: Economic & uncertainty
17:20 Gutierrez et al.: Climate & grain prices
17:40 Podhora et al.: Science & stakeholders
18:00 Brouwer (cancelled after Brazil meeting)
3. A European network of crop, livestock and
trade modelling — activities for assessing
impacts of climate change on food security
M. Banse1, M. Köchy1, R. Tiffin2
1 ThünenInstitute, Braunschweig, DE
2 University of Reading, UK
4. Challenges
• Change in climate
— CO2, drought (temp. ×
precip.),
extremes, spatial and temporal
correlation
• Growing world population
— increasing food demand
• Increasing prosperity
— change in lifestyle, more meat
5. FACCE MACSUR
Modelling European Agriculture with
Climate Change for Food Security
• “Knowledge Hub” initiated by 17
European countries + Israel
— within the FACCE Joint Programming Initiative
• started 1 June, 2012; runs 3 yrs
6. Project questions
• Will there be enough food in
the future?
• What’s the effect of climate
change on food security?
• What’s the contribution of
Europe to global food security?
• How can the uncertainty of
model projections be reduced?
MA K A A Y E
RTN LS
7. MACSUR’s aims
• bolster European capacity
in responding to the challenges of
global change for agriculture and food
security
• assist countries outside Europe
in their endeavors towards sustainable
agriculture and food security in the
face of climate change
9. Inventories of models
B PE L G
C
YS
IM AI ICS CA Jm E-B IC CS
• 6 grassland models
aS AR ST IS P M E P A
P C AD L
BI
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• 86 crop models rs ers ers ers ers ers ers ers ers ers ers ers IC
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Jm
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LP im
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AC ICS DE
LU Y
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ST EN DA WO PJ-
M L
T
S FOS UE
G
SS
• 26 economic models D D D D
O O O O IE IOM RI O
D
A A
FI RIA O
D O
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EM EM EM EM GP OB AP M SM M M EM
M M M M A C AR PA E O S
A P A4 AG
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AG A G A G AG M G
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SF DR
10. Different scales ~ different models
• point or plot models: crops, grassland
• farm-level models, diverse approaches
— farm investment models, land allocation
• regional and national models
— country as one farm
• international and global models
— international trade and policies,
expected production and prices
12. Integration and scaling
• ensemble simulations
— benchmarking
— estimate of model uncertainty
• several regional foci
• linking of models via on-demand
coupled output/input
• integration for stakeholders,“tool box”
13. MACSUR int’l cooperation
Sharing of scenarios, MACSUR emphasizes
protocols, and data • crop rotations
• integration across themes
— AgMIP
• micro and macro levels
— AgTrials • European diversity in soil,
— FoodSecure climate, and systems.
— AnimalChange • knowledge exchange &
— MultiSward collaboration
• training of integrative
— CCAFS
modellers
14. MACSUR Mission
• improve and integrate models
of crop and livestock production, farms,
and national & international agri-food
markets l i nk ed
m odel s
• demonstrate the integration
of these models tools for selected farming
systems and regions
• provide hands-on training
to young and experienced researchers in
integrative modeling
15. European contribution to
global food security
• develop methods for linking models
• develop training for (young) scientists
• assess contribution of crop production
to global food supply
