IDRC14-ppp-template_Berariu

Applying the SD Approach to
Cascading Effects in Case of Flood
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Events
1st Romana Berariu
2nd Christian Fikar
3rd Manfred Gronalt
4th Patrick Hirsch
University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna
Institute of Production and Logistics

Fig. 2 Overall losses in billion Euro of recorded events from 1998 - 2009
EEA, 2011
Fig. 1 Events recorded from 1998 – 2009
EEA, 2011
www.grforum.org
Introduction
Focus on Flood Events
• high amount of damages
– 1970 - 2006 floods caused an annually loss of 3.8 billion US$ in Europe
• total damage of a 100-year flood for the Upper Danube will increase

www.grforum.org
Critical Infrastructure
• Basis of economy, security, and health & refers to assets, systems, and
networks.
• Sectors included are exemplarily:
– transport systems,
– water and wastewater systems,
– energy sectors,
– information technologies,
– government facilities,
– food and agriculture,
U.S. Department of Homeland Security (2014)
 healthcare and public health,
 financial service sectors,
 emergency services,
 communication sectors,
 chemical industries, … .

www.grforum.org
Cascading Effects
• A sequence of events in which each produces the circumstances necessary
for the initiation of the next
• Fukushima accident (March 2011)
initial event was a 9.0-magnitude earthquake
 14-meter tsunami
 nuclear power plant situated on the coast
 high temperatures within the reactor units
 series of explosions
 radioactive steams were released into the environment

www.grforum.org
Visualization of Cascading Effects
• Usually modelled as sequences
• System Dynamics
– first applied by Forrester (1961)
– enables to capture the complexity of disasters
– feedback thinking through Causal-Loops (CLDs)
• Example: May (2007)
– cascading effects resulting from flash floods
– cascading effects displayed as a cascading tree
Interdependencies have to be considered!

www.grforum.org
Comparison of Visualization Approaches
Fig. 3 Cascading effects in a sequencing (left) and in a dynamic way (right) based on an example of May (2007)

www.grforum.org
Advantages of the SD Approach
Fig. 4 Cascading effects of flash floods as CLD based on an example of May (2007), extended to the transport sector

www.grforum.org
Disaster Management Circle
Fig. 5 Disaster Management Circle

www.grforum.org
Applying the SD Approach to the Transport Sector
in Case of Flood Events
Fig. 6 Consequences of the flood on the transport infrastructure
Fig. 7 Example of consequences of the flood on the transport
infrastructure

www.grforum.org
Simplified CLD – Disaster Relief
Fig. 8 Example of CLD concerning disaster relief

www.grforum.org
Conclusion
• CLDs enable to understand the complex dimensions of
disaster events.
• Cascading effects and relations of the different impacts of
floods have been detected.
• Through identification and comprehension of these dynamic
interactions and cascading effects, disaster management is
supported.
• Ensuring best possible conditions for the victims
– requires well-planned disaster management
– including cascading effects in the decision-making process

www.grforum.org
Further Steps
• Further research is required
with respect to quantitative
considerations.
• Stock-and-flow diagrams will
be developed to generate
deeper understanding through
scenario analyses.
Fig. 9 Example of a Stock-and-Flow model

www.grforum.org
System Dynamics
Stock-and-flow model
“System dynamics deals with how things
change through time, which includes
most of what most people find
important.”
Quote from Jay Forrester

www.grforum.org
Further steps
• Data collection
– Literature review
– Case study analyses
– Interviews concerning disaster response to the European flood in 2013
have already been conducted
• federal armed forces
• the voluntary fire brigade
• emergency medical organization
– Further interviews with executive staff in case of a flooding event are
planned

www.grforum.org
Further steps
• Show how short-term response measures and long-term
preventive measures (including time delays) influence the
disaster evolution process.
• Simulating different scenarios, by changing the exogenous
variables and parameters.
• It is planned to develop the prototype of a software tool that
can be used for educational purposes of (future) decision-makers.

www.grforum.org
References
• Allaby, Michael (2004). A Dictionary of Ecology, Oxford University Press Inc., New York, NY.
• Barredo, José I. (2009). Normalised flood losses in Europe: 1970–2006. Natural Hazards and Earth System
Sciences, 9 (1), 97–104.
• EEA (2011). Mapping the impacts of natural hazards and technological accidents in Europe — An overview of
the last decade, Technical Report, No 13/2010, European Environment Angency Copenhagen, 12 Jan
available at: http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/mapping-the-impacts-of-natural (accessed 15 May
2014).
• EOS Project Science Office (2014). The Impact of Climate Change on Natural Disasters, available at:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/RisingCost/rising_cost5.php (accessed 15 May 2014).
• European Commission (2013). Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection – Prevention, available at:
http://ec.europa.eu/echo/policies/prevention_preparedness/prevention_en.htm (accessed 15 May 2014).
• Feyen, Luc; Dankers, Ruger; Barredo, José I.; Kalas, Milan Bódis, Katalin.; de Roo, Ad; Lavalle, Carlo (2006).
Flood risk in Europe in a changing climate, available at:
http://www.preventionweb.net/files/2800_EUR22313EN.pdf (accessed 29 May 2014).
• Forrester, Jay Wright (1961). Industrial Dynamics, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
• Funabashi Y, Kitazawa K (2012). Fukushima in review: A complex disaster, a disastrous response. Bulletin of
the Atomic Scientist,. Published online 1 March 2012. DOI: 10.1177/0096340212440359.
• May, Fred (2007). Cascading Disaster Models in Postburn Flash Flood. In Butler, Bret W.; Cook, Wayne, The
fire environment-innovations, management, and policy; conference proceedings. 26-30 March, Destin, FL,
U.S Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 443-464.
• U.S. Department of Homeland Security (2014). Critical infrastructure, available at: http://www.dhs.gov/what-critical-
infrastructure (accessed 20 May 2014).

www.grforum.org
Acknowledgments
Financial support of the programme KIRAS provided by the Federal Ministry for Transport, Innovation,
and Technology, is gratefully acknowledged.

IDRC14-ppp-template_Berariu

Empfohlen

Empfohlen

Weitere ähnliche Inhalte

Was ist angesagt?

Was ist angesagt? (20)

Andere mochten auch

Andere mochten auch (20)

Ähnlich wie IDRC14-ppp-template_Berariu

Ähnlich wie IDRC14-ppp-template_Berariu (20)

Mehr von Global Risk Forum GRFDavos

Mehr von Global Risk Forum GRFDavos (20)

IDRC14-ppp-template_Berariu