5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

1. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Complex Systems Thinking:
An Integral Feature of Disaster
Preparedness for Unexpected
Interdependent Risks
Antonella Cavallo
University of Adelaide, Australia
antonella.cavallo@adelaide.edu.au

2. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
1. What’s problematic about existing DRR practices? – Focused on known
and knowable risks
2. Why is Complex Systems Thinking required? – To build general
resilience in the community
3. What’s the key message for the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk
Reduction? – Encourage ambidextrous approaches to DRR to tackle
known and unexpected interdependent risks
Outline

3. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
1. What’s problematic about existing DRR practices? – Focused on known
and knowable risks
2. Why is Complex Systems Thinking required? – To build general
resilience in the community
3. What’s the key message for the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk
Reduction? – Encourage ambidextrous approaches to DRR to tackle
known and unexpected interdependent risks
Outline

4. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Complex Complicated
Chaos Simple
HFA has focused mainly on known and knowable risks
Snowden 2003
KnowableUnknown

5. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Specified resilience: identified risks
South Australian State Emergency Management Plan (under review) after ISO 31000

6. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Interdependent risks are difficult to identify

7. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
A macro-view of Fukushima Daiichi risk network
Earthquake
Tsunami
Nuclear disaster
TEPCO
mismanagement
NISA
inadequate
guidelines
NSC inadequate
regulations
Effects are reported beyond causal borders of individual systems
Cavallo 2012

8. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
A system of systems to build community resilience
Schools
National Consortiums
Private Sector
Business
Associations
Media
Disaster resilience -
A System of Systems Approach
Non profit
organizations
ARC
Medical Associations
Aboriginal and Torres
Strait Island
communities
Citizen corps
Emergency
Volunteers
Churches
Neighborhoods
PopulationSpecial Needs
Local
Governments
Jurisdiction
Port Authorities
State
Emergency
Services
Domestic
Security
Executive Group
Emergency
Management
Council
Emergency
Management
Australia
Government
Cavallo 2014

9. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
1. What’s problematic about existing DRR practices? – Focused on known
and knowable risks
2. Why is Complex Systems Thinking required? – To build general
resilience in the community
3. What’s the key message for the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk
Reduction? – Encourage ambidextrous approaches to DRR to tackle
known and unexpected interdependent risks
Outline

10. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
How do we prepare for the instability of the back
loop?
Fore loop
Back loop
Walker & Salt 2006

11. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Many disaster risks are unexpected
Complex
Systems
Thinking
Unforeseen
Unexpected
Unprepared
General resilience = resilience to unknown
shocks

12. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Specified and general resilience need to be integrated
General resilience
Specified resilience
Resilience requires a holistic approach in place and time
Complicated
Complex

13. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
The need for ambidexterity in DRR
SPECIFIED RESILIENCE GENERAL RESILIENCE
Known / knowable risks Unexpected interdependent risks
Complicated: cause-effect relationship can be
established before the disaster
Complex: cause-effect relationship can only be
established in hindsight
Top-down approaches Bottom-up approaches and guided self-organization
Identified risks Unforeseen, unanticipated risks or unprepared
community
Linear thinking System thinking
Exploitation of knowledge: Sense and respond Exploration: Probe, sense and respond
Mitigate risk of negative events Keep a safe operating space
General approach Context specific
Written protocols Flexible, adaptable frameworks
Standardized Customized
Cavallo 2014

14. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Interdependent risks in a hyper-connected world
The World Economic Forum, Global Risks 2011
In complex systems the sum of the components exceeds the whole

15. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
A complex challenge to face with silos?
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16. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Slide 18
Focus groups with the South Australian DRR System of
Systems
Cavallo 2013

17. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
1. What’s problematic about existing DRR practices? – Focused on known
and knowable risks
2. Why is Complex Systems Thinking required? – To build general
resilience in the community
3. What’s the key message for the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk
Reduction? – Encourage ambidextrous approaches to DRR to tackle
known and unexpected interdependent risks
Outline

18. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
– 1st priority: Ensure that disaster risk reduction (DRR) is a national and a local
priority with a strong institutional basis for implementation
• Why doesn’t DRR have a strong institutional basis? Is not a priority at local and
national level?
– 3rd priority: Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of
safety and resilience at all levels
Complex Systems Thinking can help communities and institutions to
develop and sustain a culture of safety and resilience
Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for
Disaster Risk Reduction

19. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for
Disaster Risk Reduction
Main gaps, needs and further steps to be addressed in the Post
2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction in
– Research: general resilience
– Education & Training: learning to acknowledge complexity
– Implementation & Practice: implement ambidexterity / get
help from complex thinkers while still valuing complicated
thinkers (integration)
– Policy: design ambidextrous policies to encourage ABCDRR
(‘asset based community disaster risk reduction’)

20. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Antonella Cavallo
University of Adelaide - Australia
antonella.cavallo@adelaide.edu.au