HAITHCOAT-Developing a continental potential conflict landscape-ID1553-IDRC2014_b

5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Developing a Continental Potential
Conflict Landscape for Establishing
Response Context:
Case Study Africa
Timothy L. Haithcoat
Geographic Resources Center, University of Missouri, USA
Erik Mueller
Department of Geography, University of Missouri, USA

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• People get involved in conflicts because their interests or their values are
challenged, or because their needs are not met.
• There are several basic human needs that are typically met
– Food
– Water
– Shelter
Conflict is a natural and typical
phenomenon in every type of human
relationships, at every level
Intra-personal, local,
intra-state, inter-state,
global
Ayse Kudar, Social Assessment, Seminar presentation on conflict, 2002

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• People get involved in conflicts because their interests or their values are
challenged, or because their needs are not met.
• There are several basic human needs that are typically met
– Food
– Water
– Shelter
• There are several basic human needs that are especially pertinent to
conflict and conflict mitigation:
– Recognition
– Development (and self-actualization)
– Security
– Identity
– Community
Conflict is a natural and typical
phenomenon in every type of human
relationships, at every level
Intra-personal, local,
intra-state, inter-state,
global

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Major Proposition of Conflict Theories
• Society is not a system in equilibrium but a nebulous structure of
imperfectly coordinated elements
• Change and conflict are continuous and normal; inherent
predispositions to change vary in scope, nature, intensity and
degree
• Every society, at every moment, experiences social conflict
• Every element within a society contributes to its change
• Every society rests on constrain of some of its members by others
• Social universe is the setting within which the conflict of life are
acted out

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http://www.systemicpeace.org/conflicttrends.html

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http://www.systemicpeace.org/warlist.htm

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CONFLICT
The propensity of any two groups to have
conflict increases as social differences between
them (in language, religion, race, ethnicity, and
cultural style) increase

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Grain Size of Analysis
• Wanted a global model
• Needed a data construct / cataloging unit
• Created a Hexagon tessellation

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ACLED Database
• Armed Conflict Location & Event Data
• 1997 through 2013 – 17 years
• Split into 4 year increments for model development and
subsequent testing and refinement
Types of Conflict Evaluated

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VIOLENCE
• Direct violence --killing and beating--happens in
interpersonal and inter-group situation
• Structural violence--poverty, hunger, repression and social
alienation--is associated with uneven life chances and is
built into most society
– Oppression and discrimination are symptoms of structural
violence
– Absence of direct violence is no guarantee for the lack of
structural violence; not all forms of structural violence lead to
direct violence

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Case Study - Africa
Africa chosen: Available data for entire continent
Including:
Base Layers Derived Layers Validation
Land cover Roughness ACLED
Roads Accessibility
Ethnicity Isolation
Boundaries Opportunity
Population Quality of Life
Elevation Persecution
Resources Water
Hydrology English
Languages Development

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Road Density

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Ethnicity

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Language

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Geospatial Tools
• Topological Overlay: Identity; Union
• Network Analysis
• Interpolation
• Zonal Statistics
• Cross Tabulate
• Point Density; Line Density

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Cross Tabulate- Land Cover
……
……
……

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Zonal Statistics - Elevation
……
……
……

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Conflict Landscape Beta1

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ACLID Database

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Conflict Landscape B1-ACLID

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Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for
Disaster Risk Reduction
Research Gaps:
1) The need to initiate ongoing monitoring of the socio-cultural
parameters / dynamics to track areas of conflict concern.
2) The development of an understanding of the socio-cultural
context of the risk both in terms of the geophysical but also
the geopolitical
3) The development, integration, and use of geospatial models
and geostatistics to support decision making.
– In developing this understanding it is critical to gain perspective and
insight on model interactions through sensitivity analysis and the
understanding of error and its possible cascading effects.

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Education & Training:
It is critically important to systematically integrate:
1. Geospatial modelling and visualization within the education,
training and exercising environments to strengthen their
analytical capacity
2. Conflict and socio-cultural analysis into disaster management
and risk assessment
This will develop the skills and understanding of both geospatial and
socio-cultural data and its proper use to support decisions. This includes
the visualization of confidence in the resulting decision based on the
inputs used.

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Implementation & Training:
• Consideration of conflict reduction strategies for
countries with a high propensity for conflict
• Give water conflicts renewed operational focus
• Complement analyses of “vulnerable groups” with
“conflict groups”; introduce less static concepts to social
group analyses to include social, cultural, ethnic and
other cohesive groups
• Re-evaluate social dynamics of “border” issues and
ethnicity
• Re-assess role of cultural factors, especially religion, in
plans and implementations

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Policy:
In developing a more complete understanding of both the
physical and socio-cultural context a policy dialogue can
occur.
A statement can be developed to ensure that the socio-
cultural context (and its associated cascading ramifications)
are incorporated into the initial disaster response,
mitigation, and rebuilding plans so that stability (resiliency)
can be truly achieved and maintained.

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A final activity to be focused on?
The concept of
disaster risk
modeling should
be incorporated
into the stability
/ fragility indices
used by others to
assess a state’s
resiliency.

HAITHCOAT-Developing a continental potential conflict landscape-ID1553-IDRC2014_b

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