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Time Until Fire Arrival
(TUFA) modeling
Mark McLean, Ph.D.
October 9, 2013
Anchor Point Company Profile
• Wildfire hazard and risk mitigation – solutions from
pre-planning through mitigation management
• Company formed by firefighters
• Clients both private and government
–
–
–
–

•
•
•
•

Other consulting firms
Home owner associations
Fire departments
Local, State and Federal Government

Hazard and risk assessments
Community Wildfire Protection Plans (CWPPs)
Fuel treatment project management
National Hazard and Risk Model (No-HARM)
Background
•

Important for many reasons to know when a potential fire will arrive
– Suppression trigger points
– Evacuation concerns
– Production shutdown (oil and gas)

•
•

Excellent fire behavior modeling tools available (FlamMap,
FARSITE, BehavePlus) but none appropriate for this particular task
Fire rate of spread is available – why not turn this into time?

http://news.yahoo.com/thousands-flee-colo-wildfire-92homes-destroyed-084723709.html

http://www.isciencetimes.com/articles/5392/20130612/colorado-firesforce-2-000-homes-4.htm
TUFA – What is it?
• Modeling technique that
makes lines of equal time
(isochrones) for a fire to
arrive at a given location
• Works for fires located
anywhere on the map
• Worst case scenario
– Wind blowing toward focus
area
– 97th percentile weather
scenario (adjustable)
– Shortest time until fire
arrives
Methodology Overview

• Prepare input data
– Fuel (LANDFIRE)
– Weather
– Topography

•
•
•
•
•
•

Run FlamMap
Export Rate of Spread
Convert to time
Adjust for vectoring
Run cost distance
Visualize outputs
Fire Behavior Modeling
Fuel

Weather

Topography

Flame Length

Rate of Spread

Crown Fire
Model Builder
• Great for nonprogrammers!
• Visual nature makes it
easy to follow
• Readily available in
basic ArcMap
• Once built, the model
can be run quickly
• NOT magic (see next
slide)
Challenges
• Vectoring
– Reconciling wind
and slope direction
– Cyclic nature of
directional data

• Input data
– Projection is crucial
– Input data are
sometimes cranky
(focus as point vs.
polygon)
Limitations
• Only takes flaming
front into account
(not
spotting/embering)
• Worst case scenario
might be too extreme
• Difficult to relate
model conditions to
those experienced
on the particular day
of a fire

jalcornphoto.photoshelter.com
Case Study 1 – Future Housing
Development
• Access route as
focus
• Mostly one way in
and out
• Negotiations with
county for
mitigation
requirements
– Second access
road?
– Landscape fuel
treatment?
– Treat fuel along
road?
Case Study 2
• Theme park with a
large number of
visitors
• Aerial tram as main
access
• Shelter-in-place vs.
full scale evacuation
(depends on time)
Future Directions/Applications
• Other disasters?
• Better handling of
slope
• Address multiple
source problem
• Refine fire behavior
modeling

http://www.listal.com/list/pets-steal-show
Questions or Comments?

?
http://www.jimmyfungus.com/2012/11/epic-facepalm-compilation-most-epic.html

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2013 ASPRS Track, Modeling the Time Until a Wildfire Arrives by Mark McLean

  • 1. Time Until Fire Arrival (TUFA) modeling Mark McLean, Ph.D. October 9, 2013
  • 2. Anchor Point Company Profile • Wildfire hazard and risk mitigation – solutions from pre-planning through mitigation management • Company formed by firefighters • Clients both private and government – – – – • • • • Other consulting firms Home owner associations Fire departments Local, State and Federal Government Hazard and risk assessments Community Wildfire Protection Plans (CWPPs) Fuel treatment project management National Hazard and Risk Model (No-HARM)
  • 3. Background • Important for many reasons to know when a potential fire will arrive – Suppression trigger points – Evacuation concerns – Production shutdown (oil and gas) • • Excellent fire behavior modeling tools available (FlamMap, FARSITE, BehavePlus) but none appropriate for this particular task Fire rate of spread is available – why not turn this into time? http://news.yahoo.com/thousands-flee-colo-wildfire-92homes-destroyed-084723709.html http://www.isciencetimes.com/articles/5392/20130612/colorado-firesforce-2-000-homes-4.htm
  • 4. TUFA – What is it? • Modeling technique that makes lines of equal time (isochrones) for a fire to arrive at a given location • Works for fires located anywhere on the map • Worst case scenario – Wind blowing toward focus area – 97th percentile weather scenario (adjustable) – Shortest time until fire arrives
  • 5. Methodology Overview • Prepare input data – Fuel (LANDFIRE) – Weather – Topography • • • • • • Run FlamMap Export Rate of Spread Convert to time Adjust for vectoring Run cost distance Visualize outputs
  • 6. Fire Behavior Modeling Fuel Weather Topography Flame Length Rate of Spread Crown Fire
  • 7. Model Builder • Great for nonprogrammers! • Visual nature makes it easy to follow • Readily available in basic ArcMap • Once built, the model can be run quickly • NOT magic (see next slide)
  • 8. Challenges • Vectoring – Reconciling wind and slope direction – Cyclic nature of directional data • Input data – Projection is crucial – Input data are sometimes cranky (focus as point vs. polygon)
  • 9. Limitations • Only takes flaming front into account (not spotting/embering) • Worst case scenario might be too extreme • Difficult to relate model conditions to those experienced on the particular day of a fire jalcornphoto.photoshelter.com
  • 10. Case Study 1 – Future Housing Development • Access route as focus • Mostly one way in and out • Negotiations with county for mitigation requirements – Second access road? – Landscape fuel treatment? – Treat fuel along road?
  • 11. Case Study 2 • Theme park with a large number of visitors • Aerial tram as main access • Shelter-in-place vs. full scale evacuation (depends on time)
  • 12. Future Directions/Applications • Other disasters? • Better handling of slope • Address multiple source problem • Refine fire behavior modeling http://www.listal.com/list/pets-steal-show