2. Cadre des Résultats – Logique externe Activités Extrants Effets Impact Hypothèses Indicateurs de Risque Hypothèses Indicateurs de Risque Hypothèses Indicateurs de Risque Hypothèses initiales Si si si Si Et Et Et Alors Alors Alors Alors
3.
4. Hypothèses et Analyse des Risques Activités Extrants Effets Impact Hypothèses Hypothèses Hypothèses Risque bas Risque Modéré Risque Elevé Niveau de gestion/contrôle diminuant
5. Pourquoi faire une analyse des risques? Pour envisager des stratégies qui peuvent réduire le niveau des risques. Pour décider sur la réallocation des Ressources
Hinweis der Redaktion
« Hypothèse » est aussi parfois désignée « supposition ».
The assumptions describe the necessary conditions that must exist for the cause-effect relationship between the different levels of results to behave (happen) as expected. It also describes the necessary conditions for ensuring that the activities will produce results. The assumptions include both internal and external conditions to the program.
Generally, the assumptions related to the transformation of activities into outputs, present a low level of risk, considering that managers have a greater control on the achievement of the activities. The assumptions related to the transformation of the outputs into outcomes present a higher level of risks, considering that various elements may interfere on the achievement of results, throughput programme implementation. The assumptions ensuring the transformation of the outcomes into impact present an even higher level of risk, since these assumptions are related to the context and often involve interventions external to the programme.
Resources may need to be reallocated to reduce risk or to ensure the sustainability of a programme.