Intro to course module: How do new Technologies Become Economically Feasible

A/Prof Jeffrey Funk
Division of Engineering and Technology Management
National University of Singapore
For more information, see: http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations

Basic Course Objectives
 How and when do new technologies, new forms of
existing technologies, or new combinations of existing
technologies become economically feasible?
 For which technologies, are the economics of them
becoming better? Why are they getting better?
 How can we find these technologies? either as an
 entrepreneur or an
 employee of a large company
 This module helps you
 find these technologies
 analyze them and present your findings in an end-of year
presentation

Change Provides Opportunities
 It provides opportunities for new products and
services
 It also provides opportunities for new firms
 New entrants
 Incumbents with low shares
 Types of changes
 Technology
 Political and regulatory rules
 Social and demographic factors
 Industry structure

Looking at this Change in More Detail
 Technology
 Magnitude of change is important (e.g., changes in the concepts or
architectures that form basis of technology)
 General changes (Integrated Circuits, magnetic storage, Internet) provide
more opportunities than do changes in special technologies
 Political and regulatory rules
 Licenses
 Environmental and safety rules
 Social and demographic factors
 Changes in customer taste
 Increased incomes
 Demographic changes such as more women in the workforce or longer life
spans
 Industry structure
 Vertical disintegration
 Lower capital intensity

Example of How Changes Led to Entrepreneurial
Opportunities in Tablet Computers
Opportunity:
Tablet
Computers
including
content,
software
Social: more interest
in Internet and
accessing information
Economic: greater
need to stay
connected, cheaper
entertainment
Industry structure: more
vertical disintegration
in Internet, including more
content and apps
Technology: falling cost and
rising performance of
integrated circuits (ICs),
displays, and WiFi

Many Types of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Emerged for Tablet Computers
 Designers and Manufactures of
 Tablet computers
 Integrated circuits (ICs) and other electronic components
 Displays, touch layer, glass
 Suppliers of MEMS and bio-electronics
 Software, content, and app suppliers
 Contract manufacturers for tablets
 Changes in higher level systems such as restaurants,
health care, retail, logistics, and insurance
 In some situations, this is easy: from 0:05 to 0:15,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0a-_4Mz68c

For Change, MT5009 Focuses on Technological
Change
 Technological change makes new things technically and
economically feasible
 Most venture capital is in industries with lots of
technological change, rapid improvements in electronic
components (e.g., Moore’s Law)
 VC firms, Steve Jobs, and other Silicon Valley firms focus
on technological change
 Steve Jobs said many times that he doesn’t pay attention to customer
needs. Likes to tell a joke about Henry Ford and horses.
 Other types of change are important, but receive less
emphasis in this module
 There are patterns of technological change that enable us to
identify technologies that are becoming economically
feasible

Number of U.S. Firms Receiving Venture Capital Funding
Source: Dow Jones Venture Capital Industry Report
Industry Group Industry Segment 2000 2005
Healthcare Biopharmaceuticals 338 244
Services 53 43
Medical devices 228 195
Medical Information Systems 210 54
Total 829 537
Information
Technology
Broadcasting and Cable 17 6
Other Communications & Networking 808 181
Electronics & Computer Hardware 157 106
Information Services 627 116
Semiconductors 254 141
Software 1790 690
Total 3653 1276
Other 1834 426
Grand Total 6316 2239

All Industries in 2010 26.45 Billion USD
Aerospace and defense 97
Agriculture and forestry 34
Biopharmaceuticals 3,246
Business support services (mostly Internet) 2,516
Communications and networking 1,027
Construction and civil engineering 141
Consumer information services 4,552
Electronics and computer hardware 1,282
Financial institutions and services 631
Food and beverage 100
Healthcare services (mostly Internet) 1,144
Household and office goods 71
Machinery and industrial goods 188
More Recent Data from Dow Jones

All Industries Billions of USD
Materials and chemicals 413
Media and content 343
Medical devices and equipment 2,249
Medical software and information services 478
Non-renewable energy 296
Personal goods 47
Renewable energy 2,118
Retailers 182
Semiconductors 764
Software 3,762
Travel and leisure 133
Utilities 141
Vehicles and parts 460
Wholesale trade and shipping 0

 Global Startups (sometimes called Unicorns)
 valuations over $1 Billion
 still private (no IPO yet)
 have raised money in past four years
 at least one venture capital firm as investor
 122 firms as of 25 September 2015
 With 21 other startups that recently exited (IPOs, acquisitions or
decreasing value), total of 143 firms
 High valuations mean investors believe these firms offer
something valuable, unique, hard to copy
 Some of them will
 lead to “creative destruction”
 have $100 Billion plus market capitalizations in the future, like
the strongest hi-tech startups: Apple, Google, Amazon, and
Microsoft
Wall Street Journal’s Billion Dollar Startup Club

Company Latest Valuation Total Equity Funding Last Valuation
Uber $51.0 billion $7.4 billion August 2015
Xiaomi $46.0 billion $1.4 billion December 2014
Airbnb $25.5 billion $2.3 billion June 2015
Palantir $20.0 billion $1.6 billion October 2015
Snapchat $16.0 billion $1.2 billion May 2015
Didi Kuaidi $16.0 billion $4.0 billion September 2015
Flipkart $15.0 billion $3.0 billion April 2015
SpaceX $12.0 billion $1.1 billion January 2015
Pinterest $11.0 billion $1.3 billion February 2015
Dropbox $10.0 billion $607 million January 2014
WeWork $10.0 billion $969 million June 2015
Lufax $9.6 billion $488 million March 2015
Theranos $9.0 billion $400 million June 2014
Spotify $8.5 billion $1.0 billion April 2015
DJI $8.0 billion $105 million May 2015
Zhong An Online $8.0 billion $934 million June 2015
Meituan $7.0 billion $1.1 billion January 2015
Square $6.0 billion $495 million August 2014
Stripe $5.0 billion $290 million July 2015
ANI Technologies (Ola Cabs) $5.0 billion $903 million September 2015
Snapdeal $5.0 billion $911 million August 2015
Stemcentrx $5.0 billion $250 million September 2015
Zenefits $4.5 billion $596 million May 2015
Cloudera $4.1 billion $670 million March 2014
Dianping $4.0 billion $1.4 billion March 2015
The Top 25 Firms as of 25 September, 2015

Category U.S. Europe China India Other Total
Software 38 1 2 41
E-Commerce 12 3 9 2 2 28
Consumer
Internet
18 6 7 2 4 37
Financial 7 4 3 1 15
Hardware 7 2 1 10
Healthcare 7 1 8
Energy 2 2
Space 1 1
Retail 1 1
Total 92 14 22 6 9 143
Number of Startups, by Category and Country
Most are Internet Related (122)
Note: some of the startups were redefined and the smaller categories were combined,
based on the descriptions by the Wall Street Journal and other sources

Returning to “Change,” How and when do New
Technologies Become Economically Feasible?
 What is economic feasibility?
 What causes new technologies to become economically
feasible?
 Changes in demand?
 Changes in supply?
 How do these changes impact on on
diffusion of new technology?
 Can we use this information to
understand which technologies
become economically feasible?
 And make better decisions

What is Economic Feasibility?
 An objective comparison between a new and existing
technologies. Or products that offer a superior value
proposition to some set of customers
 superior performance in one or more dimensions
 superior features, lower price
 We distinguish economic
feasibility from organizational
or regulatory changes that
also impact on diffusion of new
technologies
 Over time new technology will
become
 Used by some first users
 And later becomes economically
feasible for growing number of users and thus diffuse
 We can represent this with supply and demand curves

Quantity (Q)
Price (P)
q
p
What do Demand and Supply Curves Mean and
what do they have to do with Diffusion?
Demand
Supply

Some Relevant Questions:
 What are the first
 Products to diffuse?
 First value propositions?
 First designs?
 Markets to accept this diffusion?
 First customer segments?
 First customers within segments?
 First sales channels?
 In this module, we are more interested in how the new
technology actually becomes economically feasible.
Thus….
 What are typical movements of supply and demand curves
 When do they intersect?
 What impacts on this timing?

Quantity (Q)
Price (P)
Diffusion typically starts in segments/users that are
willing to pay high prices for new technologies
Demand
Curve
Supply Curve
Typical movement of
supply curve over time Typical
movement
of demand
curve over
time

What are Rates of Change in Demand and
Supply Curves and What Drives Them?
 Supply Curves
 What is rate of change in supply curve?
 Predominant viewpoint: demand drives improvements
 But this ignores reality of R&D (Sessions 2 and 3)
 universities and other labs improve technologies long before
technologies are commercially produced
 Improvements in “components” make new “system” economically
feasible
 What are rates of improvement and thus rates of change in
supply curves?
 Demand Curves
 Increases in income
 Changes in complementary technologies or consumer
preference

How can this Help us Understand Which
Technologies are Becoming Economically Feasible?
 To understand this questions, we must understand
rates of improvement and the extent of
improvements needed
 Which technologies have rapid rates of
improvement and what drives these improvements?
 What drives the emergence of and improvements in
technologies, e.g., improvements in cost and
performance? (Sessions 2 and 3)
 What extent of improvements are needed?
 Which technologies require improvement?
 Which require large improvements before they become
economically feasible

Rate of Improvement
ExtentofImprovementNeeded
Small
Large
Slow Fast
When Will New Technologies Become
Economically Feasible?
Now or Probably Very Soon
Probably Never
Within 5 to 15 Years?
Within 5-15 Years?

When Will New Technologies Become
Economically Feasible (continued)
 Talking about economic feasibility and the diffusion
of new technologies is really talking about the
future…………
 What do you think the future will be like?
 On what basis have you developed these views?
 Is there a better way to think about the future?
 One that prevents us from becoming a victim to cognitive
biases (more on this later)
 Let’s think about the future first, and how our world
might change
 Changes that assume the Internet and phones will
become more important

How will we get
information our
in the future?

What Things Will this
Information be From?
And Where will this
Information Be Displayed?

How big
will these
displays be?
And how will
we interact
with
these
displays?

Will We Use
Our Hands
i.e., Gesture
Interface? Or
something
else to access
the info?

Might this Impact on the Future of Offices?
Do we even need Offices?

Or will our offices and our displays be even bigger?

How About Our Homes? What will they be Like?

Maybe not the so distant future for cities?

How About Transportation in Cities?
Will these vehicles be
driverless and will they be
stationary or moving at 100 km
per hour?
Will private cars exist?

Maybe the Farms will be in the Cities
What About Transport of Vegetables, Fruits, and other Food?

Or Maybe Our Cities will be Someplace Else?
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/01/architecture/vincent-callebaut-underwater-skyscraper/index.html

What About the
Future of
Energy?
The
Future
of
Energy?

What About
the Future of
the
Environment?

We Could Look at Many Such Pictures
of the Future…..but
 Obviously there are many technologies that might
shape our future
 And their numbers are rapidly increasing……..
 Which ones will become a reality and which ones
will fade away?
 Will these technologies lead to better lives for us,
our families, our grandchildren?
 Will you personally benefit from them?
 As users?
 As suppliers?
 As entrepreneurs?

Which Technologies will become a Reality and
which ones will Fade Away?
 This is obviously difficult to predict……
 Depends on
 rates of improvements
 extent of improvements needed
 where the above two depend on user
preferences and
 interactions between multiple
technologies or what I call an interaction
between systems and components
 Improvements in components enable us
to design new and better systems
 All of the previous pictures were of
systems
 We focus on rates of improvement and
degree of improvements needed

Different Technologies have Different
Annual Rates of Improvement
0
5
10
15
20
25
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
>42
Number of Technologies by Annual Rates of Improvement
Annual Rates of Improvement
Source: my analysis of data from: Nagy B, Farmer D, Bui Q, Trancik J 2013. Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress. PLoS ONE 8(2): e52669.
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0052669NREL, 2013
67%: <9% per year
89%: <15% per year

Faster Rates of Improvements
 Increase the chances that a new technology or systems
composed of that technology will become economically
feasible
 For example, Moore’s Law enabled emergence of many
new products, services, and systems
 Calculators, digital watches
 Personal computers, laptops, tablets, PDAs
 Video games, digital cameras, MP3 Players
 E-book readers, digital TV, smart phones
 What new systems will Moore’s Law or other technologies
enable in the future?
 This question was implicit in many of the pictures shown
earlier

Key Questions
 Which Technologies are Experiencing Rapid Rates
of Improvement?
 Which Technologies are Experiencing Slow Rates
of Improvement
 What do you think?

What do you think?
 What are the rates of improvements for the
below technologies?
 Batteries?
 Installed wind turbines?
 Installed solar Cells?
 ICs, lasers, other electronic components,
computers?
 Superconductivity?
 We then might ask which of the above
technologies will have the largest impact on
reducing the usage of fossil fuels in the next 10
years

Rates of Improvements
 Batteries – about 5% per year
 Installed Wind Turbines – about 2% per year
 Installed Solar Cells – about 7% per year (much
faster for the cells themselves)
 ICs, computers, lasers, electronic components –
between 30 and 40% per year
 Superconductors – between 30 and 50% a year
 Slow rates of improvements suggest that
“improvements in batteries and wind turbines” will
have smaller effect than will other technologies
 Can improvements in ICs etc. enable improvements in
efficiency of logistics, transportation and other energy
intensive activities?

Other Slow Rates (<5%)
 Appliances: residential heat pumps, air
conditioners, washing machines, laundry dryers,
dishwashers, refrigerators, freezers, light bulbs
(Weiss, M., M. Junginger, M. K. Patel and K. Blok 2010. A review of experience curve
analyses for energy demand technologies, Technological Forecasting and Social
Change 77(3): 411-428)
 Materials, beverages, electrical appliances, foods
 some chemicals experienced slightly faster rates of
improvement, but rarely reach 10% a year
 Nagy B, Farmer D, Bui Q, Trancik J 2013. Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological
Progress. PLoS ONE 8(2): e52669. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0052669NREL, 2013
 What is the difference between annual rates of
improvement and rates of improvement with each
doubling of cumulative production?

Importance of Fast Annual Rates of
Improvement is Often Underestimated
 1% per year: 70 years for doubling of performance (or
halving of costs)
 5% per year: 14 years for doubling
 10% per year: 7 years for doubling
 20% per year: 3.5 years for doubling
 30% per year: 2.3 years for doubling
 Technologies with rapid rates of improvement can
have a large impact on our world and how we
design cities, homes, offices, health care and
energy generation and distribution

Understanding of Rates of
Improvement is Rare
 Many confuse rates of improvement for each doubling
of cumulative production with annual rates of
improvement
 Many don’t know the rates of improvement
 Many assume technologies are experiencing rapid
rates of improvement because they are widely
discussed (batteries, wind turbines)
 Even if they know them, they don’t understand the
implications

What About Mobile Phones? (1)
 In early 1980s, one study concluded there would be
about 1 million mobile phones in use by 2000
 Some would say we under estimated the need for
mobile phones
 I say we under estimated the impact of Moore’s Law on
the cost of mobile phones

 In early 2000s, many believed that location services
were a huge market
 Until about 2010 no one used these services
 Until about 2010 some would say we overestimated the
need for such services
 I say we
 over estimated the impact of Moore’s Law on the cost of
such services for short term
 under estimated the impact for long term

 RIM Blackberry worked on email for mobile phones since 1984
 For many years it’s services could only be accessed on special pagers with
special data services (Mobitex)
 Its mail services became available on general phones in 2002
 They became widely popular with business and later
consumers (by 2007). firm had market capitalization of $83
Billion in June 2008
 RIM Blackberry is shocked by success of iPhone in 2008
 Takes years to release a competitive product
 RIM Blackberry didn’t understand that Moore’s Law would
continue to make new types of products economically feasible
Source: Losing the Signal: The Spectacular Rise and Fall of Blackberry, 2015. Jacquie McNish, Sean Silcoff

Another Reason Fast Rates of Improvements
are Underestimated
 Cognitive biases
 Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman

Cognitive Biases
Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman
 People assess relative importance of issues, including new
technologies
 by ease of retrieving from memory
 largely determined by extent of coverage in media
 E.g., media talks about solar, wind, battery-powered vehicles, bio-fuels
and thus many think they have rapid rates of improvement - but only
some are
 Second, judgments and decisions are guided directly by
feelings of liking and disliking
 One person invested in Ford because he “liked” their products – but was
Ford stock undervalued?
 Many people “like” some technologies and dislike others without
considering rates of improvement
Source: Daniel Kahneman, Thinking Fast and Slow, 2011

Types of Questions that Daniel
Kahneman Asks
 Which of the following scenarios is more likely?
 a) Sam goes to work tomorrow
 b) Sam goes to zoo tomorrow
 c) Sam goes to restaurant tomorrow night
 d) Sam goes to work at a high tech IT office during day
developing software and goes to restaurant in Chijmes at
night with his friends
 An American man has been described by neighbors as
follows:
 “Ryan is very shy and withdrawn, invariably helpful but with
little interest in people or in the world of reality. A meek and
tidy soul, he has a need for order and structure and a
passion for detail.”
 Is Ryan more likely to be a librarian or a farmer?

Cognitive Biases
 We all have them
 Even MIT probably does (see next slide)
 Some are better at recognizing and avoiding them than
are others
 Warren Buffet is probably better than most of us
 Most management programs spend more time on
cognitive biases and decision making than does ETM
 Before returning to technology change and
understanding when new technologies become
economically feasible, let’s take a brief look at MIT’s
predictions of the future

MIT Predicted 10 Breakthrough Technologies in
2001, 2003, 2004 and 2005
 After excluding 7 technologies that were too broad to gather
data, there were 33 technologies
 1 has greater than $10 Billion in sales
 smart grids (power grid control)
 2 have sales between $5 and $10 Billion
 micro-photonics, personal genomics
 11 have sales between $1 and $10 Billion
 Grid computing, Molecular imaging, Synthetic Biology, Distributed
Storage
 RNAi Interference, Brain-Machine Interface, Data mining, Biometrics
 Digital Rights Management, Natural Language Processing,
Microfluidics
 5 have sales between $100 million and $1 Billion
 14 have sales less than $100 million

How Good were these Predictions?
 Difficult to assess, but more than half still have small
markets of less than $1 Billion in sales
 Might these markets grow in the near future?
 Or have they been abandoned?
 MIT’s Technology Review also missed many
technologies that have more than $10 Billion in sales
 Smart phones Cloud computing
 Tablet computers Big Data
 Social Networking eBooks and eReaders
 A big reason for their poor predictions was that they
focused too much on science and not enough on rapidly
improving technologies

Isn’t there a more deliberate and logical way?
 Understanding rates of improvement can help firms,
universities, and governments better understand when
new technologies might become economically feasible
 Technologies must have some level of performance and
price for specific applications before they begin to
diffuse
 Technologies that experience faster rates of improvement are
more likely to become economically feasible….
 They are also more likely to have an impact on how we design
higher-level systems
 This has implications for R&D policy and solving global
problems such as urban congestion, sustainability
 But which technologies are currently experiencing rapid
rates of improvement and why?

Technology Dimensions of measure Time
Period
Rate Per
Year
Integrated Circuits Number of transistors per chip 1971-2011 38%
Power ICs Current Density 1993-2012 16.1%
Passive RFID Price per RFID transponder 2005-2012 19.1%
Camera chips Pixels per dollar 1983-2013 48.7%
Light sensitivity 1986-2008 18%
MEMS Number of Electrodes per Eye 2002-2013 45.6%
Drops per second for printer 1985-2009 61%
Organic Transistors Mobility 1994-2007 101%
Computers Instructions per unit time 1979-2009 35.9%
Instructions per time and dollar 1979-2009 52.2%
Technologies Experiencing Rapid Rates of Improvements
(Information Processing)

Technology Dimensions of measure Time Period Rate Per
Year
Carbon Nanotube
Transistors
1/Purity (% metallic) 1999-2011 32.1%
Density (per micrometer) 2006-2011 357%
Superconducting
Josephson Junctions
1/Clock period 1990-2010 20.3%
1/Bit energy 1990-2010 19.8%
Qubit Lifetimes 1999-2012 142%
Bits per Qubit lifetime 2005-2013 137%
Photonics Number of Optical Channels 1983-2011 39.0%
Computers Instructions per unit time 1979-2009 35.9%
Instructions per time and dollar 1979-2009 52.2%
Quantum
Computers
Number of Qubits 2002-2012 107%
(Information Processing - Continued)

Sub-Technology Dimensions of measure Time Period Rate/
Year
Magnetic Storage Recording density (disks) 1991-2011 55.7%
Recording density (tape) 1993-2011 32.1%
Cost per bit 1956-2007 32.7%
Flash Memory Storage Capacity 2001-2013 47%
Resistive RAM 2006-2013 272%
Ferro-electric RAM 2001-2009 37%
Phase Change RAM 2004-2012 63%
Magneto RAM 2002-2011 58%
(Information Storage)

Technology
Domain
Sub-Technology Dimensions of
measure
Time
Period
Rate/
Year
Information
Transmission
Last Mile Wireline Bits per second 1982-2010 48.7%
Wireless, 100 m Bits per second 1996-2013 79.1%
Wireless, 10 m 1995-2010 58.4%
Wireless, 1 meter
(USB)
1996-2008 77.8%
Materials
Transformation
Carbon Nanotubes 1/Minimum Theoretical
Energy for Production
1999-2008 86.3%
Biological
Trans-
formation
DNA Sequencing per unit cost 2001-2013 146%
Synthesizing per cost 2002-2010 84.3%
Cellulosic Ethanol Output per cost 2001-2012 13.9%
(Information Transmission, Materials and Biological Transformation)

Technology
Domain
Sub-
Technology
Dimensions of
measure
Time Period Rate Per
Year
Energy Trans-
formation
Light Emitting
Diodes (LEDs)
Luminosity per Watt 1965-2008 31%
Lumens per Dollar 2000-2010 41%
Organic LEDs Luminosity per Watt 1987-2005 29%
GaAs Lasers Power/length-bar 1987-2007 30%
LCDs Square meters/dollar 2001-2011 11%
Quantum Dot
Displays
External Efficiency 1994-2009 79%
Solar Cells Peak Watt Per Dollar 2004-2013 21%
Photo-sensors
(Camera chips)
Pixels per dollar 1983-2013 49%
Light sensitivity 1986-2008 18%
Energy
Transmission
Super-
conductors
Current-length/dollar 2004-2010 115%
Current x length-BSSCO 1987-2008 33%
Current x length-YBCO 2002-2011 53%

I probably missed some…..
 Can you find other ones in your group presentations?
 Or can you combine these technologies or these and other
technologies into new “systems”
 Don’t just copy what others say, combine technologies into
new and novel systems
 This is your opportunity to think about the future and do so
in a more rigorous way than is done by the media
 Technologies with rapid rates of improvement will have a
large impact on the world partly depending on how they are
combined in novel and interesting ways
 By the way
 If there are <40 students, 3-4 students per group
 If >40 students, 4-5 students per group

Let’s talk about the module in
more detail
 Method of grading
 Example of a project on computers
 What about firms?
 Overview of Schedule

Grading
 No research papers or final exam
 Group presentation (60%)
 Participation (10%)
 One page write-ups (30%)
 3 one-page write-ups on topics related to technologies
covered in sessions 4 through 10
 Identify the entrepreneurial opportunities for one of the
technologies listed for that session

Group Presentations
 I let you form your own groups/teams in order to
make it easier for you to choose a project
theme/research topic that is closer to your interests
 Assessments by peers will be used to translate group
presentation grades into individual grades
 Feedback given on summaries before Session 6 and on
presentation slides in or before Session 11
 Number of students per group

Presentation Should Cover (all are not necessary)
 Important dimensions of performance and cost, i.e., customer
needs, for new technology
 Levels of performance and cost that are needed for new
technology to become economically feasible
 Time series data on improvements in cost and performance of
“system” and “components”
 You must explain how and why the economics are changing
 How these improvements are occurring, i.e., mechanisms
 Potential for further improvements
 Entrepreneurial Opportunities for technology.
 a good list of startups (>500,000) can be found for specific
technologies here: https://angel.co/markets
 Summarize startups pursuing the specific technology, and the
technologies that are becoming economically feasible but are not yet
pursued

Grading of Presentations (1)
 Creativity (40%), Thoughtful analysis (40%),
Application of concepts (20%)
 Creativity (40%)
 grade reflects both choice and analysis of technology
 technology should be new (not widely used or not used at all)
 may combine individual technologies (i.e., components) in
novel and useful ways
 Should involve technologies that are experiencing rapid
improvements
 You can choose a topic that I cover in class and/or one that has
been covered in previous years, but you must provide more
details and insights than those presentations. See my slideshare
account for past presentations
 http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations

 Thoughtful analysis (40%)
 Effectiveness and clarity of presentation
 Slides should be understandable without explanations
 Acronyms should be defined
 Data should be effectively interpreted on separate slides
 Inconsistencies between data should be discussed
 Non-essential information should be excluded from slides
 Please include references
 Application of concepts (20%) covered in this module
 How improvements occur
 Materials, scaling, processes, components and systems
 Changing economics – how are economics changing?

 In general presentations that
 present data
 good explanations of that data
 and provide details will receive better grades than will other
presentations
 Wikipedia, Answers.com, or HowStuffWorks.com should
only be starting points for analysis
 Presentation grades are translated into individual grades
using peer evaluations
• See previous years’ presentations for more details:
http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations

Participation
 You are expected to actively participate in class
discussion
 Please be prepared mentally for the classes
 Many questions will be asked to stimulate discussion
 Some of these questions will be about your vision for
Singapore’s future
 Please be prepared for these types of questions
 There is no right answers for these questions

Grading of One-Page Write-Ups (1)
 Similar to grading of presentations
 Creativity
 Thoughtful analysis
 Application of concepts
 Key difference. Grades reflect:
 the extent to which the write-up identifies
entrepreneurial opportunities for specific
technologies that are covered in Sessions 4-10
 specific technologies are listed at end of session

What are Entrepreneurial Opportunities?
 They are not just applications!!
 They are products and services that offer potential
revenues to their providers
 Related, but not the same as applications!
 Not just final product or service, but any component,
software, service, or manufacturing equipment that is
needed to commercialize the technology
 Think about vertical disintegration
 Applications should be analyzed in terms of the products
and services that are needed to satisfy the applications
 Different applications may require different types of products
and services
 The more specific you can be, the better your grade

Although not graded,
you should also think about:
 Implications for yourself
 Does this technology warrant further analysis by
myself?
 Do I have some skills that can be transferred to this new
technology?
 For example, if you are a semiconductor engineer, is the
potential for solar energy or new displays large enough
for you to consider learning about them? Or for you to
consider changing jobs?

Uploading and Labeling of Files
 You must upload many files to IVLE
 Please upload to the correct workbin
 One page write-ups on lectures
 Peer evaluations (or mail to me)

Outline
 Existing theories on technological change do not help
us
 My approach to technological change
 Example of a project on ICs

Consider Transistors/
Integrated Circuits
 Let’s make believe the year is 1965(*) and you are
Robert Noyce or Jack Kilby
 Who were co-developers of the IC in 1959
*Gordon Moore’s famous article was published in 1965

Presentation Should Cover (all are not necessary)
 Important dimensions of performance and cost, i.e.,
customer needs, for new technology
 Levels of performance and cost that are needed for new
technology to become economically feasible
 Time series data on improvements in cost and
performance of “system” and “components”
 You must explain how and why the economics are changing
 How these improvements are occurring, i.e., mechanisms
 Potential for further improvements
 Entrepreneurial Opportunities for technology

Important Dimensions of Performance
 Speeds
 Power consumption
 Range of voltages and frequency response
 Size
 Manufacturing cost
 Development cost

Levels of performance and cost that are needed
for the new technology to become economically
feasible
 Small size and faster speeds were major advantages of ICs
 But initially too expensive for most applications
 Market initially limited to military applications like missiles
 Next markets were computer and telecommunication systems
 First transistors used in computers in late 1950s
 Consumer applications for ICs required much lower levels of cost
 In addition to cost problems, too high of power consumption for
portable calculators and watches

Time Series Data
 Moore’s Law
 Originally presented in terms of
falling cost
 Later represented by increasing
number of transistors per chip
 One could also have identified
the resulting improvements in
various “systems”
 in processing speeds or costs of
computers
 in cost and performance of other
electronic products

Potential for improvements in “system” and
“components” (1)
 Definitions
 System: ICs
 Components: materials and manufacturing equipment
 Ability to improve yields and decrease feature sizes
(i.e., scaling) partly because equipment and processes
were available (e.g., from nuclear, aerospace, and
other industries) for doing so
 Epitaxial and other deposition equipment
 Diffusion (i.e., furnace) and ion implementation equipment
 Screen printing equipment
 Wet chemical baths

Potential for improvements in “system” and
“components” (2)
 Large impact of reduced feature sizes on
 Functionality
 Speeds
 Power consumption (lower per transistor)
 Size
 Manufacturing costs
 What were (in 1965 terms) the perceived limits to
reducing the feature sizes?
 If there are no limits and rapid improvements can be
made………………

Why a High Potential?
 Miniaturization of ICs is easier than with vacuum
tubes
 ICs are formed in a thin substrate
 Vacuum tubes are based on electrodes and current jumping
across electrode

Types of entrepreneurial opportunities that Kilby
and Noyce might have emphasized (1)
 Various types of discrete transistors and ICs
 Various types of supporting technologies
 Semiconductor manufacturing equipment
 Materials for wafers and various layers
 Computer-aided design tools, software for equipment
 Later design houses, foundries
 Improvements to existing systems: Replace vacuum
tubes with ICs in low power applications
 Military equipment such as missiles
 Computers, radios and televisions
 Telephones and telecommunication switches

and Noyce might have emphasized (2)
 Improvements to existing systems: Replace mechanical
controls/systems with ICs
 Watches
 Mechanical calculators
 Numerical controlled machine tools
 Process controls for chemical plants

and Noyce would probably not have emphasized,
but have become possible
 Make new forms of systems possible
 Personal computers including portable ones
 Mobile phones
 Set-top boxes for cable television
 Routers, switches, and the Internet
 This would have led to opportunities for providers of these
systems and ICs along with software, and other components
for these systems
 I would not have expected them to identify these kinds of
market opportunities (and thus I don’t expect you to be able
to do so)

0.01K$
0.1K$
1.K$
10.K$
100.K$
1,000.K$
10,000.K$
100,000.K$
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
16 KB 64 KB 256 KB 1 MB 8 MB
System Price K$ = 5 x 3 x .04 x memory size/ 1.26 (t-1972)
5: Memory is 20% of cost
3: DEC markup
.04: $ per byte
He didn’t believe:
The projection
500$ machine
He couldn’t comprehend
implications
Gordon Bell’s (CTO of DEC)1975 VAX (mini-computer)
planning model... : He didn’t believe it!
Source: Jim Gray, Microsoft: slidefinder.net/l/laws_cyberspace/62483

Outline

What About Firms?
 The unit of analysis in MT5009 is primarily
technology
 Presentations focus on technology
 But you should identify startups and/or
incumbents that are commercializing the
technology
 a good list of startups (>500,000) can be found for specific
technologies here: https://angel.co/markets
 Summarize startups pursuing the specific technology and the
technologies that are becoming economically feasible but are
not yet pursued

Other Things MT5009 is not About
 I am not expert on how technologies work
 certainly not for all of the technologies covered in MT5009
 The module focuses on improvement trajectories
and what these trajectories means for
 when those technologies will become economically
feasible
 And the entrepreneurial opportunities that will likely
emerge
 Please refer to the experts on these technologies for
details on how they work
 But also remember that explanations for phenomena
often change over time

Outline
 Existing theories on technological change do not
help us
 My approach to technological change

Session Activities
1 (14 Jan) Objectives and overview of course
2 (21 Jan) How do improvements in cost and performance occur?
3 (28 Jan) What is the long term process by which new
technologies become economically feasible?
4-10 (4 Feb
to 24 March)
Technologies experiencing rapid rates of improvement
and new types of products, services, systems
11 (31
March)
Review of student slides
12 (7 April),
13 (14 April)
Group presentations
Schedule

Key Deadlines/Events
 Session 3: mail me list of students in your group by 28
January; message must include all members in carbon
copy
 Session 5: mail me one-page summaries of proposed
presentations by 11 February (I respond before Session 6)
 Session 10: upload your slides to workbin on IVLE by 24
March
 Sessions 4-10: Write-ups due one week after relevant
session
 Session 11: I provide feedback on slides in class and during
previous days
 Sessions 12 and 13: group presentations
 Two weeks after sessions 12 and 13: write-ups on
presentations are due

Session 2: How do Improvements in Cost
and Performance Occur?
 Creating materials (and their associated processes) that better
exploit physical phenomena
 Geometrical scaling
 Increases in scale: e.g., larger production equipment, engines, oil tankers
 Reductions in scale: e.g., integrated circuits (ICs), magnetic storage,
MEMS, bio-electronic ICs
 Some technologies directly experience improvements while
others indirectly experience them through improvements in
“components”. Examples of systems include:
 Computers and other electronic systems
 Telecommunication systems
 Rapid improvements are primarily driven by reductions in scale
and by new materials, when new classes are created

Session 3: What is the Process by which New
Technologies Become Economically Feasible?
 Supply and demand curves; dynamics of economic feasibility
 Two models of technology change
 1) Model of Invention, Commercialization, Diffusion in which advances in
Science play important role
 2) Improvements in components lead to emergence of new systems
 Billion Dollar Startup Club – private recent startups with $1Billion
dollar values. Component & Sys model best explains emergence of
opportunities that they exploited
 Empirical Analysis of Predictions Made by MIT
 Myths (and realities) about technology change
 #1: Performance vs. time curves resemble S-curve
 #2: Slowdowns in old technology drive improvements in new technology
 #3: A-U (Abernathy-Utterback) model
 #4: Costs fall as cumulative production rises in learning curve

Sessions 4-10: Technologies experiencing rapid rates
of improvement and new types of higher level systems
 Purpose of sessions is to help you
 understand the technology and the changes occurring in this
technology
 identify and do analysis in group projects
 You can analyze any technologies covered in these sessions
including ones done by students in previous years
 You must, however, focus on a slightly different technology,
perhaps a sub-technology, or go beyond my discussions or
those in previous years
 If you choose a technology that will be discussed in this
module, you should look at the slides in advance, which are
available on the IVLE or
http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations

 Looking at the schedule in more detail

Session Technology
4: Feb 4 Future of ICs, Electronic Systems, Internet
5: Feb 11 Sensors, MEMS and the Internet of Things
6: Feb 18 Bio-Electronics, Bio-Sensors, Health Care, and DNA
Sequencers
21/2 – 29/2 Mid-semester break, no class
7: Mar 3 Lighting, Displays, lasers, 3D printers, R2R Printing
8: Mar 10 Human-Computer Interfaces, Wearable Computing
9: Mar 17 IT and Transportation
10: Mar 24 Nano-technology and Superconductivity
Note that slides for other technologies are also available on IVLE and my slideshare
account (telecom, solar cells, energy storage, wind turbine)
Technologies Experiencing Rapid Rates of Improve-
ment and New Types of Higher Level Systems

Background Information on ICs
 Geometric scaling – how reductions in scale led to
improvements in performance and cost of ICs
 How these improvements enabled the introduction of
new types of ICs over the last 50 years
 logic chips, memory, microprocessors, Application Specific
ICs (ASICs), Application Specific Standard Products (ASSPs)
 How these better ICs led to better electronic systems
 computers, routers, servers, mobile phones, telecom, video
game consoles, new software, Internet content
 New technologies that enable further improvements in
ICs and new forms of systems

Potential Projects (1)
 New types of processes, transistors, ICs
 Extreme ultra-violet photolithography
 New types of transistors, e.g., new “FIN FET”
 3D ICs – address specific types of ICs such as memory,
microprocessors or combinations of them
 Replacements for flash memory: phase change memory (PRAM)
magnetic RAM (MRAM), Ferroelectric RAM (FeRAM), and
resistive RAM (ReRAM). And impact on computer architecture
 Synaptic, AHaH, and quantum computing
 Molecular and atomic transistors
 Transistors made from ultra-thin materials (e.g., graphene,
molybdenum sulfide, boron nitride, transition metal
dichalcogenide, and other materials)

 New types of electronic products, services, and systems
 New types of mobile phones, computers, smart watches
 Biometrics
 New types of enterprise (sales, engineering, operations, human
resources, legal, blogs), security, database, big data, and advertising
software
 New types of e-commerce, services and content for computers and
smart phones
 New types of financial services
 Impact on journalism, education, architecture, other professions
 More efficient construction (e.g., pre-fab housing by DIRTT, fast
construction by Chinese firms)
 Increasing Use of Open Source Software and Their Impact on
Electronic Systems (See Git hub and Source Forge for list of software)

Background Information
 Falling cost of sensors, ICs, MEMS, transceivers,
cellular and WiFi services, and energy harvesters for
Internet of Things
 Reductions in scale drive improvements in performance
(e.g., sensitivity) and cost of MEMS, including falling
power consumption
 examples include: filters for mobile phones, micro-gas
analyzers, ink jet printers, bionic eyes
 Internet of Things will provide large value for some
types of products and systems
 Examples of structural monitoring, fracking and Energy
 Fishing and Agriculture, Drones, Retail, Smart Homes
 Internet of Toys, Food Packaging

Potential Projects
 Internet of Things, Big Data Wireless sensors
 Putting GPS, transceivers, other sensors in everything
 New types of MEMS and energy harvesters and better
analyses of cost and performance trends for them
 Products and systems that will benefit most from
adding Internet connections
 A better analysis of ones covered in class and/or done in
previous student projects
 Or new products and systems
 But not just hardware
 Also new software for IoT including cloud computing, open
software, big data, database

 Monitoring of Structures
 Oil, Gas, Pipelines, Fracking, Mining
 Agriculture, Fishing, Mining
 Food packaging and sensors
 Commercial Drones
 Retail and Logistics
 Smart Homes
 Internet of Toys
 Other Aspects of Smart Cities
 Free Routing of Aircraft

 Improvements in bio-electronics, including bio-electronic
ICs
 Type of MEMS with micro-fluidic channels
 Benefit from reductions in scale
 Number and types of bio-sensors is growing
 Improvements in them are making new forms of
 diagnostic equipment, skin patches, bio-sensors
 phone attachments, drug delivery, bionic eyes, exoskeleton
 organ-on-a-chip economically feasible
 Big Data and Health Care
 Improvements in DNA sequencing and synthesizing
enable new forms of drug, crop, and material development

Potential Projects
 New forms of diagnostic equipment, including lab-on-
a chip
 New bio-sensors and attachments for mobile phones
 New forms of skin patches
 Smart prosthetics (e.g., exoskeletons)
 New forms of drug delivery, smart pills, implanted
electronics
 Organ on a chip

 Big Data and Internet of Things for Health Care
 New forms of software for health care including
 HR software, hospital software, personal software, data base
software
 How can DNA sequencers and synthesizers help us
develop better crops, biofuels, other materials?
 What will these new crops, biofuels and other materials
probably be?

 Improvements in efficiency (new materials) for past and
new forms of lighting and lasers
 Incandescent, fluorescent, and compact fluorescent
 LEDs (light emitting diodes), OLEDs (Organic LEDs), lasers
 Improvements in old and new forms of displays
 LCDs, including 3D Displays
 Organic Light Emitting Diode (OLEDs) based displays
 Flexible displays
 Holographic displays
 Geometric scaling in liquid crystal displays (LCDs)
 Larger (and thinner) substrates/production equipment lead to
lower costs
 Also with roll-to roll printing

 New forms of lighting
 LEDs or OLEDs
 Smart lighting: combine motion sensors and LEDs/OLEDs
to provide more effective and aesthetic lighting
 Lighting as a Service
 New forms of systems from LEDs and lasers
 LEDs for greenhouses
 3D printers
 Scanners for different applications including those that
involve 3D printing
 LiFi – Light field communication

 New forms of displays
 Organic Light Emitting Diode (OLEDs) based displays
 Electronic paper such as that used in eBooks
 Flexible displays, holographic displays
 New applications of displays
 3D Televisions
 Public displays
 Home displays: kitchens and living, dining, and bathrooms
 Smart watches, or wrist displays
 Impact of better displays on daily activities
 Roll to roll printing of displays and other technologies

 New forms of human-computer interfaces (HCI)
 Touch, Voice, Gesture, Neural
 Emphasis on new forms of touch displays
 Impact of improvements in ICs, cameras, sensors,
magnetic imaging on these interfaces
 Augmented reality (cameras and phones)
 Virtual Reality
 Wearable computing
 For different body parts
 E.g., Google Glass

 New forms of touch, gesture, touch, voice, and neural
interfaces
 New forms of augmented reality
 More details on wearable computing – where are the
best places to put these computers?
 New forms of virtual reality?
 What kinds of applications might emerge, particularly non-
game applications?
 Can these applications reduce need for face-to face
meetings?

 New human-computer interfaces for specific applications
(not just for typical users like us)
 For example, Google Glass, Microsoft HoloLens, or other
types of augmented reality for specific applications
 assemblers can see drawings
 construction workers can see through walls, wires, and pipes
 prospectors can see through the ground
 architects can see entire 3D image of building
 similar systems could be useful for tourists, shopping, soldiers, and
artists
 Engineers can see new products and how they interact with our
world
 360 degree view for drivers and pilots

 Role of IT in Transportation
 Better ICs and other components
 Open Source Software
 Improvements in IT are improving economics of
 Mobile phones and GPS for buses
 Private bus and ride sharing services through mobile apps
 Mobile phones and GPS for bike sharing and combining
bike sharing with trains
 Roads dedicated to autonomous vehicles
 Charging stations, both wireless and wired, for electric
vehicles
 Will this lead to fewer private vehicles?

Potential Projects
 Mobile phones and GPS for buses
 Private bus and ride sharing services through mobile
apps
 Use big data to identify new bus routes (mini-and full
size buses)
 Mobile phones and GPS for Bike sharing
 Roads dedicated to autonomous vehicles
 Charging stations for electric vehicles
 Wired charging
 Wireless charging
 Note: for all topics, future projects must go beyond
projects done in previous semesters

 Nano-technology is general term representing continued
 reductions in feature sizes (<100 nanometers)
 these reductions in size increase importance of certain physical
phenomena (e.g., quantum effects)
 Improvements are occurring in
 Fullerene, Carbon Nanotubes, Graphene and many other ultra
thin materials
 Quantum Dots, Nanoparticles, Nanofibers
 Improvements in superconductors primarily from
creating new materials/processes
 Increases in critical temperature, current densities, magnetic
fields, Reductions in cost
 Applications: computing, energy

 Cost and performance trends for Fullerene, Graphene,
Carbon Nanotubes, Quantum Dots, Nanoparticles, or
Nanofibers
 Increasing number of ultra-thin (single- or double atom)
materials
 What kinds of materials and complex systems will emerge as these
materials are combined with each other and with graphene?
 Applications for CNTs and grapheme: include transparent
electrodes, flywheels, aircraft and vehicle bodies
 Applications for Quantum Dots, nanoparticles, nanofibers
 How will these applications impact on higher level
systems?

 To what extent are superconductors getting cheaper
and better?
 How are these improvements in superconductors
making new applications economically feasible
 Energy generation, distribution, and transmission
 Quantum computers
 Magnetic levitating trains (MagLev)
 Google’s purchase of a quantum computer from D-
Wave increased interest in quantum computers

Summary
 Technologies that experience rapid improvements in
performance and cost or systems composed from them are
more likely to become economically feasible than are other
technologies
 Understanding the technologies experiencing rapid rates of
improvement can help us better understand the future
 We will learn
 drivers of improvements in Session 2
 about the dynamics of technology change including the
dynamics of economic feasibility in Session 3
 Specific technologies in Sessions 4 to 10
 How to analyze technologies and present your findings
throughout this module

Forming Groups
 Start now!
 I let you form your own groups in order to make it easier
for you to choose a project theme/research topic that is
closer to your interests
 Please start as soon as possible
 Number of students/per group:
 If you can’t find a group, please let me know

Who am I (1)
 Education
 B.S. in Physics
 Graduate studies in Electrical Engineering
 M.S. Mechanical Engineering (Carnegie Mellon University)
 Interdisciplinary Ph.D. (Engineering & Public Policy) from Carnegie-Mellon
University (1984)
 Worked at Hughes Aircraft on semiconductors (1978-1980) and
Westinghouse (1985-1990) on implementation of new design and
manufacturing techniques/technology
 Taught at
 Pennsylvania State University (1991-1995)
 Kobe University (1996-2003)
 Hitotsubashi University (2003-2007)
 NUS (from 2007)

Who am I (2)
 Research：
 Management of Technology: Product Development,
Standards, Modular Design and Vertical Disintegration
Technological Discontinuities,
 Mobile Phone: many years. Received the DoCoMo Mobile
Science Award for lifetime contributions in mobile
communications in 2004
 Publications
 About 40 papers in refereed journals
 Six books
 Consulting: Bouygues Telecom, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo,
Vodafone, Gehrson Lehman, Panasonic, Vodafone, Motorola,
Huawei, Texxi

Who Am I (3)
 Six books, the two most recent
 Technology Change and the Rise of New Industries, Stanford
University Press (2013)
 Exponential Change: What drives it? What does it tell us about
the future? (2014); Price is 0.99USD
http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00HPSAYEM
 Exponential Change can also be read on other devices
besides Amazon Kindle. Here are appropriate apps:
 http://www.amazon.com/gp/feature.html?docId=1000493771
 Summaries of recent books in papers
 What Drives Exponential Improvements, California Management
Review, Spring 2013
 Rapid Improvements with No Commercial Production: How do
the improvements occur, forthcoming, Research Policy

"Explaining much about innovation that
others have ignored, Funk helps us better
understand how improvements in costs
and performance occur with new
technologies. While the conventional
wisdom suggests that costs fall as
cumulative production increases,
Funk shows us that the reality of this
relationship is different and more
interesting. For example, technologies
that benefit from reductions in scale
(e.g., integrated circuits) have seen
dramatic advances; finding these kinds
of technologies (and products based on
them) is a major task for R&D managers.“
—Christopher L. Magee, Professor and
Director, Center for Innovation in Product
Development, Massachusetts Institute of
Technology

Jeff Funk examines what it will take to realize the
potential of new technologies for innovating out of the
economic challenges that we face. He argues that many
theories of innovation are incomplete, outdated, or just
plain wrong, and that new insights are sorely needed to
address such issues is how much time will be required to
get alternative energy technologies to the mass market“
Anita M. McGahan, University of Toronto and
Author of How Industries Evolve
"Jeff Funk's provocative elaboration on Giovanni Dosi's
notion of technology paradigms calls for a fundamental
re-examination of conventional management wisdom
about technologies and technology evolutions. In
particular, Funk's clear exposition of the supply-side
technology dynamics that drive disruptive innovations
provides a long overdue corrective to the demand-side
story widely advanced by Clayton Christensen, for
example. More generally, Funk's framework for analyzing
and predicting future technology trajectories establishes
a new and essential perspective for both technology
strategists and technology policymakers."—Ron Sanchez
Copenhagen Business School

"Without resorting to singular case studies, Funk takes
a sophisticated approach to characterizing techno-
logical emergence and change, and the role that
governments play in developmental trajectories. He
builds a descriptive model using a historical analytical
approach to reinterpret data from a host of industries.
Based on this model, the book takes a daring a daring
step to speculate on future technological developments
in energy and electronics, providing sobering advice to
those who think that government intervention is the
panacea for national innovation.“ —Phillip Phan,
Professor and Interim Dean, The Johns Hopkins
Carey Business School
"In this vitally important advance in the analysis of
innovation, Funk explores the limits of learning curves
as a mere function of forced or subsidized volumes.
Learning has to be real, integrated, and multifaceted in
order to benefit from different paths to improvement in
cost and performance. Trenchantly demonstrating the
need for multi-dimensional, supply side innovation in the
case of clean energy, he shows the futility of our current
demand-side focus."—George Gilder, venture capitalist

Session 4 Topics for Write-ups
 Identify all the entrepreneurial opportunities
for one of the following technologies
 Big Data
 WiFi Phones
 3D ICs
 E-commerce

 Identify all the entrepreneurial
opportunities for one of the following
technologies
 IoT for agriculture
 smart homes
 food sensors
 Drones

 Identify all the entrepreneurial opportunities for one
of the following technologies
 Skin patches
 Smart contact lens
 Attachments to mobile phones such as ultrasound and
glucose meters (choose one of them)
 New types of fish from DNA sequencing and synthesizing
(GMOs)

 Identify all the entrepreneurial
opportunities for one of the following
technologies
 Smart lighting
 LiFi
 Refrigerator displays

 Google glass
 Gesture interface
 Health data recorded with wrist device
 Augmented reality with cameras and phones

 App-based ride sharing with multiple
passengers
 Dedicated roads for autonomous vehicles
in Singapore
 Electric vehicles in Singapore

 Ultra-thin materials for aircraft
 Quantum computers
 Superconductors for energy transmission
and distribution in Singapore
 CNT for transistors

Intro to course module: How do new Technologies Become Economically Feasible

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