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Geometric Scaling and Long-Run Reductions in Cost:The case of wind turbines,[object Object],SrikanthNarasimalu,[object Object],Ph.D. Student,[object Object],Jeffrey Funk,[object Object],Associate Professor,[object Object],Division of Engineering & Technology Management,[object Object],National University of Singapore,[object Object]
Wind Turbines on Land and at Sea,[object Object]
Large Wind Farms in the,[object Object],  Ocean and on Land,[object Object]
            Preliminary Observation:Larger Wind Turbines are Being Installed,[object Object]
So Conventional Wisdom is Probably Not Very Relevant,[object Object],Cost of producing a product drops a certain percentage each time cumulative production doubles in so-called learning or experience curve (Arrow, 1962; Ayres, 1992; Huber, 1991; Argote and Epple, 1990; March, 1991),[object Object],as automated manufacturing equipment is introduced and organized into flow lines (Utterback, 1994),[object Object],Although learning curves do not explicitly exclude activities done outside a factory, the fact that these learning curves link cost reductions with cumulative production ,[object Object],focuses policy and other analyses on the production of the final product,[object Object],imply that learning done outside of a factory is either unimportant or is being driven by the production of the final product,[object Object],If major impact of installing more wind turbines was on lowering manufacturing cost, firms would install small wind turbines so there would be high volumes of small blades, towers, etc. ,[object Object]
Of Course, the Wind Doesn’t Blow Everywhere (and all the Time),[object Object]
Wind Speed Measurements at 8,000 Stations,[object Object],Source: http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/002770.html,[object Object]
Wind Turbines and their Potential for Cost Reductions
Frequency of Wind Speed in a Ranch in Texas,[object Object]
Installed Global Capacity,[object Object],   of Wind Power (MW),[object Object],2009:,[object Object],159 GW,[object Object],2010,[object Object],194 GW,[object Object]
Installed Wind Capacity by Country,[object Object]
But Wind Contributes a Small Percentage of ,[object Object],           Overall Electricity Generation (1),[object Object],TWh: Tera Watt Hours,[object Object]
Wind Contributes Small Percentage of Electricity Generation (2),[object Object]
How Much Will this Contribution Increase in the Future? ,[object Object],Blue is actual, red is forecasted,[object Object],World Wind Energy Association World Wind Energy Report 2009,[object Object]
The Future of Wind Power,[object Object], Will wind power continue to diffuse?,[object Object], Advantages,[object Object],It has lower carbon and other environmental emissions,[object Object], Disadvantages,[object Object],Wind doesn’t blow all the time (actual output about 1/3 of rated output),[object Object],Wind is often far from large population centers, so transmission costs are high,[object Object],Wind turbines are considered ugly by many people,[object Object],Wind power is still more expensive than fossil fuels,[object Object], But will wind power become cheaper than fossil fuels,[object Object],Will countries continue to subsidize wind power or implement a carbon tax?,[object Object],Are wind turbines becoming cheaper on an cost per Watt basis?,[object Object]
Outline,[object Object], Overview of Wind Turbine Costs,[object Object], Theoretical Output from Wind Turbines (function of diameter squared, wind speed cubed),[object Object], Empirical Data,[object Object], Power output vs. rotor diameter,[object Object], Impact of rotor diameter and other factors on rated wind speed,[object Object], Cost of wind turbines,[object Object], Implications of Analysis,[object Object], New materials are needed,[object Object], Are new designs needed?,[object Object], Where are the entrepreneurial opportunities?,[object Object]
Wind Farm Level Costs,[object Object],Wind energy: 75% of costs paid upfront,[object Object],Conventional power: less capital intensive – uncertain fuel and carbon costs,[object Object],Data source: EWEA for a 2MW Turbine.,[object Object]
Main Components in Terms of Costs,[object Object]
Outline,[object Object], Overview of Wind Turbine Costs,[object Object],Theoretical Output from Wind Turbines (function of diameter squared, wind speed cubed),[object Object], Empirical Data,[object Object], Power output vs. rotor diameter,[object Object], Impact of rotor diameter and other factors on rated wind speed,[object Object], Cost of wind turbines,[object Object], Implications of Analysis,[object Object], New materials are needed,[object Object], Are new designs Needed?,[object Object], Where are the entrepreneurial opportunities?,[object Object]
Focus on Horizontal ,[object Object],Axis Wind Turbine,[object Object],Ref: Srikanth in JEC(2009).,[object Object]
Three Key Dimensions in Geometric Scaling: 1) rotor diameter; ,[object Object],        2) swept area of blades; and 3) hub or tower height ,[object Object]
Theoretical Output From Wind Turbine,[object Object],(Equation 1),[object Object],P = electric power (energy per second or watts),[object Object],D =  rotor diameter (meters),[object Object],V = wind speed (meters/second),[object Object],[object Object]
Cost of electricity from wind turbine might fall as diameter increases, if larger diameter rotors enable a wind turbine to handle higher wind speeds. ,[object Object]
Empirical Data Finds Stronger Relationship,[object Object],Equation (2),[object Object],Data source from Henderson et al.(2003) & manufacturer catalogue.,[object Object]
Reason for Discrepancy,[object Object],Above equation does not contain wind velocity:,[object Object], which as noted above has large impact on output,[object Object],It does not contain wind velocity since the turbines used for the collection of data on power and rotor diameter for Figure 3,[object Object],operate under different wind speeds,[object Object],these wind conditions depend on the respective region,[object Object],The impact of rotor diameter and other factors on wind speed was investigated in four ways,[object Object]
First, relationship between diameter and maximum rated wind speed,[object Object],Best fit curve:,[object Object],Maximum,[object Object],rated wind,[object Object],speed =,[object Object],Data source: Hau (2008).,[object Object]
Second, data on efficiency of wind turbines was also collected,[object Object],Efficiency is the ratio of annual turbine power output compared to the energy available in the wind ,[object Object],Less of wind can be harnessed at tips of blades than near center of the rotor,[object Object]
Third, Larger Rotor Diameter Better Utilizes Most Common Wind Speeds,[object Object],Data source: Vestas website,[object Object]
Fourth, Higher Towers, Higher Speeds,[object Object],Wind velocity is often lower near ground due to uneven terrain or buildings ,[object Object],The factor alpha depends on the condition of the terrain and in particular on the impact of the terrain on wind friction and is usually about 0.32,[object Object],Combining equations (4) and (1) leads to equation (5). Since the exponent for the ratio of the two heights is 3α, an α of 0.32 would cause a doubling of the tower height to result in a 94% increase in power output. ,[object Object],Equation (4),[object Object],Equation (5),[object Object]
Comparison of Wind resource at different altitude (Indiana, USA),[object Object],Data source: EWEA,[object Object]
Outline,[object Object], Overview of Wind Turbine Costs,[object Object], Theoretical Output from Wind Turbines (function of diameter squared, wind speed cubed),[object Object], Empirical Data,[object Object], Power output vs. rotor diameter,[object Object], Impact of rotor diameter and other factors on rated wind speed,[object Object],Cost of wind turbines,[object Object], Implications of Analysis,[object Object], New materials are needed,[object Object], Are new designs Needed?,[object Object], Where are the entrepreneurial opportunities?,[object Object]
Cost of Wind Turbines ,[object Object],More than 2/3 the cost of electricity from wind turbine farms comes from capital cost of wind turbine and almost half the capital costs are in tower and blades (Krohn et al, 2009) ,[object Object],Beginning with tower, WindPACT analysis (Malcom and Hansen, 2006) found regression coefficient of 0.999,[object Object],c = cost of steel ($/Kg); H = tower height; D = rotor diameter,[object Object],Comparing equations (5) and (6), output from turbine increases faster than costs as height is increased. ,[object Object],For example, if alpha is 0.32 as was shown above and assuming a constant rotor diameter, ,[object Object],increasing height from 10 meters to 20 meters would cause output to rise by 94% and costs to rise by 9 percent,[object Object],Equation (6),[object Object]
Cost of the Rotor:,[object Object],Does not increase linearly,[object Object],Data source: Hau (2008) and EWEA (2010) .,[object Object]
Rotor Cost Per “Swept Area” of Turbine Blades (1),[object Object],Equation (8),[object Object],Equation (9),[object Object],Compare them to Equation (2) in which ,[object Object],Data source: Hau (2008) and EWEA (2010) .,[object Object]
Rotor Cost Per “Swept Area” of Turbine Blades (2),[object Object],Benefits from increasing scale,[object Object],diameters < 50 meters; Yes,[object Object],diameters > 50 meters; Maybe Not,[object Object],“Maybe” because equation (2) does not take into account ,[object Object],the impact of increased tower height or rotor diameter on maximum rated wind speeds or increased efficiencies.,[object Object],Including the increased efficiencies, maximum rated wind speeds, and greater tower heights, which are partly represented by equations (3) and (5) ,[object Object],would provide a further improvements in our understanding of scaling,[object Object],would probably show some benefits to increases in scale,[object Object]
Cost of Blades (3),[object Object],The reason for the change in slopes for < and > than 50 meters is that lighter, thus higher cost materials are needed:,[object Object],for diameters > 50 meters (carbon fiber-based blades). ,[object Object],than for diameters < 50 meters (aluminum, glass fiber reinforced composites, and wood/epoxy). ,[object Object],Early blades can be manufactured with methods borrowed from pleasure boats such as “hand lay up” of fiber-glass reinforced with polyester resin.,[object Object],Carbon-based blades require better manufacturing methods such as vacuum bagging process and resin infusion method that have been borrowed from the aerospace industry (Ashwill, 2004),[object Object]
Outline,[object Object], Overview of Wind Turbine Costs,[object Object], Theoretical Output from Wind Turbines (function of diameter squared, wind speed cubed),[object Object], Empirical Data,[object Object], Power output vs. rotor diameter,[object Object], Impact of rotor diameter and other factors on rated wind speed,[object Object], Cost of wind turbines,[object Object],Implications of Analysis,[object Object], New materials are needed,[object Object], Are new designs needed?,[object Object], Where are the entrepreneurial opportunities?,[object Object]
Remember the Conventional Wisdom,[object Object],Cost of producing a product drops a certain percentage each time cumulative production doubles in so-called learning or experience curve (Arrow, 1962; Ayres, 1992; Huber, 1991; Argote and Epple, 1990; March, 1991),[object Object],as automated manufacturing equipment is introduced and organized into flow lines (Utterback, 1994),[object Object],Although learning curves do not explicitly exclude activities done outside a factory, the fact that these learning curves link cost reductions with cumulative production ,[object Object],focuses policy and other analyses on the production of the final product,[object Object],imply that learning done outside of a factory is either unimportant or is being driven by the production of the final product,[object Object],If major impact of installing more wind turbines was on lowering manufacturing cost, firms would install small wind turbines so there would be high volumes of small blades, towers, etc. ,[object Object]
New Materials are Needed,[object Object],Stronger and lighter materials are needed for further increases in scaling,[object Object],Lighter materials are needed in order to reduce inertia of large rotors,[object Object],Stronger materials are needed to withstand high wind speeds,[object Object],Without new materials, there will be few (or no) benefits from further scaling ,[object Object],Perhaps too large of wind turbines have already been installed,[object Object]
Material Technology Choice for Blades,[object Object],Note: Squared meters is for swept area of rotor,[object Object],Source (Srikanth, 2009),[object Object]
Other Data on Blade Cost Also Reinforces Need for Better Materials,[object Object],Ref: Srikanth in JEC(2009).,[object Object]
Policy Implications,[object Object],Promote adoption of new materials and manufacturing processes for the turbine blades to continue the cost reductions in electricity from wind turbines.,[object Object],Support for this R&D (in form of direct funding or R&D tax credits) will probably have a larger impact on reducing costs of electricity from wind turbines than from merely subsidizing their implementation,[object Object],Subsidizing their implementation is partly based on notion that costs primarily fall ,[object Object],as cumulative production rises (Arrow, 1962; Ayres, 1992; Huber, 1991; Argote and Epple, 1990; March, 1991), and ,[object Object],as automated manufacturing equipment is introduced and organized into flow lines (Utterback, 1994),[object Object]
One Caveat,[object Object], Maybe we have reached the limits to scaling,[object Object], Maybe it would be better if firms produced large volumes of “optimally” sized wind turbine,[object Object]
Outline,[object Object], Overview of Wind Turbine Costs,[object Object], Theoretical Output from Wind Turbines (function of diameter squared, wind speed cubed),[object Object], Empirical Data,[object Object], Power output vs. rotor diameter,[object Object], Impact of rotor diameter and other factors on rated wind speed,[object Object], Cost of wind turbines,[object Object], Implications of Analysis,[object Object], New materials are needed,[object Object],Are new designs needed?,[object Object], Where are the entrepreneurial opportunities?,[object Object]
Wind Turbines and their Potential for Cost Reductions
Wind Turbines and their Potential for Cost Reductions
The “Aerogenerator:” Implementation of 275 meter diameter turbine by 2014,[object Object]
Tethered Wind Turbine,[object Object]
Tethered Wind Turbine,[object Object],What about increasing size of fins? ,[object Object]
Wind Turbines and their Potential for Cost Reductions
Implications for Policy,[object Object],Maybe policies should promote the development of these kinds of radical designs,[object Object],What are there costs? ,[object Object],Will they benefit from increases in scale?,[object Object],Are new materials needed and what are the impact of these materials on costs of electricity?,[object Object],Remember that current policies just encourage the implementation of wind turbines,[object Object]
Outline,[object Object], Overview of Wind Turbine Costs,[object Object], Theoretical Output from Wind Turbines (function of diameter squared, wind speed cubed),[object Object], Empirical Data,[object Object], Power output vs. rotor diameter,[object Object], Impact of rotor diameter and other factors on rated wind speed,[object Object], Cost of wind turbines,[object Object], Implications of Analysis,[object Object], New materials are needed,[object Object], Are new designs needed?,[object Object],Where are the entrepreneurial opportunities?,[object Object]

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Wind Turbines and their Potential for Cost Reductions

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