Presentation from François-Joseph Van Audenhove, Partner at Arthur D. Little, at the STIB & UITP International Scientific Conference in Brussels on November 25th 2016

1. François-Joseph Van Audenhove
Partner, Arthur D. Little
Conférence scientifique internationale 40 ans du métro de Bruxelles
Axes de vie – Nœuds d’échanges
Internationale wetenschappelijke conferentie 40 jaar metro in Brussel
Levensaders – Knooppunten
International Scientific Conference 40 years of Brussels metro
Lines of Life – Nodes of Exchanges
Brussels - 24 and 25 November 2016
Which future for Urban Mobility?

2. 2
The world is becoming
increasingly urban
Urban passenger mobility
demand explodes
Urban goods mobility
demand explodes
9.306
CAGR 2010-50
-0,2% p.a.
CAGR 2010-50
+1,4% p. a.
2050
33%
67%
2030
8.321
40%
60%
2010
6.896
48%
52%
RuralUrban
Urban and rural population,
2010-2050 [m people %]
Urban passenger mobility demand,
2010-2050 [trillions person-km p.a. %]
20502030
43,2
2010
25,8
67,1
2,6x
+55%
+68%
Urban goods mobility demand,
2010-2050 [trillions of ton-km p.a. %]
3,0x
+64%
+83%
205020302010
9,5
17,4
28,5
Source: UN Population Division, Schäfer/Victor 2000, Cosgrove/Cargett 2007, Arthur D. Little
The future of earth will be urban…
… demand for passengers AND goods mobility expected to triple by 2050
Which future for Urban Mobility? – Setting the scene
… Paradigm shift required to satisfy urban mobility demand!

3. 3
Future of Mobility? – Which impact from car sharing solutions?
An average car today
drives 5% of time and
stays 95% of time - Car
sharing will increase
driving time considerably,
thereby removing cars
from the streets
In 2020, the European
car sharing market is
expected to reach 4.5
Bn EUR in revenues
(vs. 1.6 bn in 2016)
1200 shared cars available
in Brussels shortly
(x3 vs. 2015)
Which future for Urban Mobility? – Setting the scene
Source: Arthur D. Little, Car Sharing market in Europe, 2010-2020

4. 4
Audi Futures (2014):
“Self driving cars
will be present
everywhere in cities
around 2030
They will require 30%
less roads for cars, 30%
less space for parking
and reduce commute
time by 30%”
Future of Mobility? – Which impact from autonomous driving?
Source: Audi Urban Future 2014 – Boston Somerville project. Done by Prof. Parsons (Dean Harvard University for City Planning)
Which future for Urban Mobility? – Setting the scene

5. 5
Future of Mobility? – Which impact from autonomous driving?
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis, multiples studies
Which future for Urban Mobility? – Setting the scene

6. 6
Future of Mobility? – Autonomous driving could be one of the most dangerous
disruptor for PT: 30% of SDV users would switch from public transport
Source: Arthur D. Little Autonomous Vehicles Global study, 2016
Which future for Urban Mobility? – Setting the scene
6,500 respondents in 10 countries (China, France, Italy, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, UK, USA)
Question: For long distance travel, if you would
use an autonomous vehicle mobility system, which
mode of transport would it replace?
Question: For short distance travel, if you would
use an autonomous vehicle mobility system, which
mode of transport would it replace?
Train
Own car
Rental car
Plain
52%
30%
21%
3%Others
13%
Public transport
Own car
Taxi
Bicycle
50%
31%
22%
2%Others
10%
Arthur D. Little study on Autonomous vehicles [August 2016]
If PT incumbents don’t disrupt themselves they will be disrupted by others

7. 7
Future of Mobility? – Which evolution of public transport share in modal split?
Source: McKinsey Resarch institute, “An integrated perspective on the future of mobility”, October 2016
McKinsey & Company
(2016):
“By 2030, 31% (40/130)
of total traffic volume
will be carried out by
modes that do not
exist today”
The share of public
transit is expected to
decrease by 20% vs.
today, meaning limited
growth in coming
years…
Which future for Urban Mobility? – Setting the scene

8. 8
Arthur D. Little’s Urban Mobility Index, assessing 84 mobility systems worldwide
indicates cities are badly equipped to cope with mobility challenges
Source: Arthur D. Little Urban Mobility Index 2.0, 2014
Which future for Urban Mobility? – Setting the scene

9. 9Source: Arthur D. Little, Future of Urban Mobility 2.0, 2014
Mobility
visions and
policies do
not cover
requirements
Lack of
system- level
collaboration
and innovation
 A lot of mature cities do not have a clear vision and strategy
on how their mobility systems should look like in the future
 Lack of integration between transport modes, across different urban
policies (environment, land planning, energy, social policy) and across regions…
leading to sub-optimal outcome in terms of performance
 Current mobility systems do not sufficiently respond to evolving customer
needs, combining single steps of the mobility value chain into an
integrated system
 Current mobility systems do sufficiently bring together key players to work
jointly to foster lateral learning and develop innovative mobility solutions
What is holding back changes? – Mobility vision and policies not fulfilling
requirements AND lack of system-level collaboration
Which future for Urban Mobility? – Setting the scene

10. 10
Three strategic directions were identified to shape future urban
mobility systems towards sustainable mobility
Source: Arthur D. Little & UITP, Future of Urban Mobility 2.0, 2014
Baghdad
Hong Kong
SeoulAddis
Ababa
Johannes-burg
Wuhan
Munich
Zurich
Stockholm
Time
Maturity
Features:
 Innovative thinking
 Seamless integration
with “one key” for
citizens
 High convenience
 Sharing concepts
Emerging
Emerging cities with partly
underdeveloped mobility
systems
Individual
Mature cities with high share
of individual transport in
modals split
Public
Mature cities with high share
of public transport/
walking & cycling
Networked mobility
Integration of all modes
to reduce share of
individual motorized
transport
Establish
Sustainable Core:
Invest in sustainable urban
mobility infrastructure
Rethink the System:
Shape political agenda
towards shift to public &
sustainability
Network the System:
Integration of different
market players and
networking of citizens
Prerequisite Way forward
Establish your own way
(do not replicate)
Which future for Urban Mobility? – Setting the scene
Brussels

11. 11
“Rethink the system” – Four dimensions to be considered public
transport authorities to shape mobility ecosystems of tomorrow
Rethink the system – Shape political agenda towards shift to public and sustainability
System-level framework for sustainable mobility
 Policy imperatives for
cities of different maturity
stages can be clustered
around 4 dimensions
 System-level approach
required: Sustainable
improvement of mobility
performance requires
simultaneous improvement
on each dimensions
… the weakest link will
influence overall mobility
performance
 25 strategic imperatives
defined for PTA
Mobility
Supply
(solutions & lifestyles)
Mobility Demand
Management
PublicTransport Funding
Visionary Strategy
& Eco-system
1
2 3
4
System-level approach
Source: Arthur D. Little & UITP, Future of Urban Mobility 2.0, 2014

12. 12
Multi-stakeholders
engagement
Long term political
vision
Integrated urban
management approach
 Mobility strategy of the city of London
 Nantes Metropolis Urban Mobility Plan
 City of Vancouver Transportation Plan
 Stockholm Urban Mobility Strategy and Roadmap 2050
 Metropolitan Transport Plan for North Central Texas 2035
 Singapore Transport Master plan 2013 (horizon 2030)
 Transport master plan of Vienna
 City of Columbus integrated urban management approach
 Berlin Integrated Urban Governance Strategy
Intermodal integration
 Intermodal mobility stratrgy of the city of Melbourne
 The Mobility Strategy of The City of Zurich
 Greater Manchester Integrated Transport Strategy
Technology and
Innovation
 Mobility vision and strategy of Dubai
 City of Lisbon Electric Mobility Strategy
 City of Amsterdam Clean Transport Strategy
Characteristics of best practices PTA’s urban mobility visions and
strategies – Illustrations
Rethink the system – Shape political agenda towards shift to public and sustainability
Source: Arthur D. Little

13. 13
PTO also need to adapt their offering to account for evolving customer
needs and increase PT offering attractiveness while keeping costs under control
Rethink the system – Adaptation of PTO commercial offering to increase PT attractiveness
Source: Arthur D. Little
Revision of customer
segmentation
towards behavioral
and attitude based
Review of
customer value
propositions
(product &
services) to
increase
attractiveness
and readability
Develop loyalty & relationship programs to contribute
to mode attractiveness and client stickiness
Introduction of dynamic pricing policy to
influence mobility behavior (MDM)
Redesign of
transport plan
(planning
principles, modal
feeding logic) and
PT solutions
(on demand
transport,
door2door)
Digitalization
of transport
tickets and
sales channel

14. 14
Network the system – Integration towards seamless multimodal networked mobility
“Network the system” – Collaboration between public and private
stakeholders is required to deliver innovative mobility systems
Car OEMs &
other personal
mobility
providers
Logistics and
infrastructure
providers
Telecom and
payment
providers
Energy providers
NGO and think
tanks and
academia
Internet
businesses
Value-added
services
providers
Public Transport
Authorities and
Operators
ICT Integrators
Industry
associations
 Door-To-Door mobility
solutions: integrated
mobility platform and
application
 Innovative schemes for
last mile delivery of
freight
 Advanced Driving
Assistance schemes for
self driving vehicles
 Clean mobility and
mobility environmental
footprint reduction
 …
Source: Arthur D. Little

15. 15
Integrated Mobility Platforms are being established across the world, most
of them with public transit as a backbone. What about Belgium?
Information & Planning
Payment
Booking & Reservation
Functio-
nalities
Non-motorized TransportStationary Traffic
Motorized Individual TransportPublic Transport
Public Individual Transport
Modesof
transport
Func.
Covered Area
Germany
Modes
Func.
Covered Area
Stuttgart
Modes
Func.
Covered Area
Vienna
Modes
Func.
Covered Area
Germany
Modes
Func.
Covered Area
North America
Modes
1) 69 cities in the US and Canada
2) Stuttgart, Munich, Berlin-Brandenburg,
Rhine-Ruhr, Greater Nuremberg
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Network the system – Integration towards seamless multimodal networked mobility
Source: Arthur D. Little
Wien
Mobil
Lab
Covered Area
Sweden
Func. Modes

16. 16
Future of Urban Mobility? – Key take aways
 Urban mobility is a key challenge for cities, the majority of which
are still badly equipped to cope with the mobility challenge
 Technical solutions are available to develop superior mobility systems; main
root causes of poor performance are suboptimal mobility policy and
lack of system-level innovation and collaboration
 The future of mobility is about disruption – If public transits
incumbents don’t disrupt themselves they will be disrupted by others
 There is still a window of opportunity for PTA and PTO to shape
tomorrow’s urban mobility systems with PT as a backbone by working
with each other’s and with new market players… but there is urgency
 What does it take to make it happen? It needs vision, creativity,
courage, and entrepreneurship to turn the mobility paradigm towards
full integration

17. 17
Appendix: Introduction to Arthur D. Little
Agenda

18. 18
Arthur D. Little is recognized for its ability to help clients linking strategy and innovation
to achieve successful business transformation
What clients achieve...What we bring....
Deep industry,
technology and functional
expertise
1
Innovation in our DNA –
in our working style,
approaches and results
2
Managing networks of
expertise – funders,
scientists, entrepreneurs
4
3 Side-by-side with our clients
– at all levels
5 Expertise in
transformational change
and strategy
Introduction to Arthur D. Little’s Travel & Transportation practice
UNDERSTAND
Future trends
and
changes in
ecosystems
BUILD
Innovation
capabilities,
creative solutions
& business
models
SHAPE
Ecosystems
and your
company
continuously
Anticipate! Innovate! Transform!

19. 19
We help our clients to understand and act on key strategic and operational challenges
facing the industry to deliver impactful transformation
Strategy
Operations &
Systems
Organization
& Resources
Future of
Mobility
1
Customer
Experience
2
Commercial
offering
redesign
3
Ancillary
commercial
revenues
4
Tendering
strategy and
support
5
Future of
Operations
6
Value based
risk
management
7
Asset
Management
8
Safety
Management
& Safety
Culture
9
Punctuality/
regularity
management
10
Governance
& Financing
11
Strategic
competence
management
12
Organization
effectiveness
& efficiency
13
Value IT
14
Procurement
Excellence
15
Arthur D. Little Service Offering – non exhaustive
Introduction to Arthur D. Little’s Travel & Transportation practice

20. 20
Source: Arthur D. Little, available at www.adl.com. * in collaboration with the UITP ** in collaboration with Michelin Challenge Bibendum Open Lab
2014* 2014 2015** 2015 2015
2015* 2015 2016 2016 2016
Leading edge sectorial insights:Arthur D. Little continuously monitor sectorial trends to
envision the future of the mobility industry
Recent publications NON EXHAUSTIVE
Introduction to Arthur D. Little’s Travel & Transportation practice

21. 21
In 2010,Arthur D. Little launched in its Urban Mobility Lab to support cities and
companies in understanding and shaping urban mobility ecosystems
“The Future of Urban Mobility Lab is Arthur D. Little’s
contribution to tackle the urban mobility challenge.
Arthur D. Little aims to use its Future Lab to support cities
and nations in shaping the extended mobility ecosystems of
tomorrow and as a catalyzer to enable and facilitate an
open dialogue between urban mobility stakeholders. ”
– Ignacio Garcia Alves, Arthur D. Little Global CEO
Assessment of mobility performance1
Definition of nation/regional urban mobility
strategies and roadmaps
2
Definition of urban logistics strategies4
Opportunity assessment and development of
innovative mobility ecosystems
3
Business cases for innovative
business models and technologies5
Arthur D. Little Future Mobility Lab Future of Mobility Lab Offering
Introduction to Arthur D. Little’s Travel & Transportation practice

22. Arthur D. Little has been at the forefront of innovation since 1886.
We are an acknowledged thought leader in linking strategy,
innovation and transformation in technology-intensive and
converging industries.
We navigate our clients through changing business ecosystems to
uncover new growth opportunities.
We enable our clients to build innovation capabilities and transform
their organization.
Our consultants have strong practical industry experience combined
with excellent knowledge of key trends and dynamics.Arthur D.
Little is present in the most important business centers around the
world.We are proud to serve most of the Fortune 1000 companies,
in addition to other leading firms and public sector organizations.
For further information please visit www.adlittle.com
Copyright © Arthur D. Little 2016. All rights reserved.
Contacts:
François-JosephVan Audenhove
Partner
Rail & Mobility Competence Center
vanaudenhove.f@adlittle.com
M: +32-473-99 83 58