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C O M P A N Y              U P D A T E

                 India

         14 Sep 2012
                                                             Venus Remedies                                                Rs 287
         Sector: Pharma                                                  Positive research results

BSE Code                   526953        NSE Code            VENUSREM    Venus Remedies has shown good progress from its
CMP (Sep 13)                287.5         52W H/L              308/141   research development pipeline in recent months,
Nifty                       4,842           Sensex               18021
Equity Cap (m)              2,369       Face Value                  10
                                                                         with two of its innovative products getting patent
Shares (m)                   9.74        Free Float            65.29%    approvals by the US patent office. This marks a big
Market Cap (m)              2,816       3M Avg Vol               83524
                                                                         stride in Venus’ ability show results from its R&D
                                                                         investments, and the market has reacted positively,
            Shareholding Pattern Jun-2012                                rerating the stock upwards.
                                                                         We believe these valuations are sustainable, with
                                                                         more upside possible on further research gains
                                                                         valuations.
                                                Promoters
           32%                35%                                        2 major US Patents approved
                                                FIIs/FVCI

                                                Domestic
                                                                         The company achieved positive vindication of its research
                                                Institutions             efforts, with approval of US patents for two key products:
                                                Corporate Bodies
                                                                         Potentox, suitable for Nosocomial Pneumonia and Febrile
               19%         14%
                                                                         Neutopenia infections treatment; and CSE1034, an
                                                                         antibiotic product effective against a range of drug resistant
                      0%
                                                                         infections.
                                                                         New research product launched
   330                Price Performance                                  Venus launched a new research based product,
   300                                                                   nanotechnology based „Taxedol‟, a single vial Docetaxel
   270
   240
                                                                         product. With market size of Rs 15bn in the domestic
   210                                                                   market, this is a key product addition to its strong kitty of
   180                                                                   cancer products.
   150
   120                                                                   Top-line growth as per expectations
    90
    60                                                                   Venus has showed growth in revenue of 13.3% in Q1 FY13
    30                                                                   (Apr-Jun‟12) in line with our expectations. The Company‟s
    -                                                                    revenue reached Rs 1120mn in Q1‟FY13 from Rs 988.7
        Jan-12 Feb-    Mar-      Apr-    May-   Jun-     Aug-   Sep-     same quarter last year. Its EBITDA grew by 5.7% to Rs
                12      12        12      12     12       12     12
                                                                         281.2mn this quarter from Rs. 297.2mn in Q1‟FY12. It
                      Venus Remedis             Sensex
                                                                         registered PAT of Rs. 136.2mn up by 3.1% compared to
                                                                         Q1‟FY12. EBITDA and net margin are affected with
                                                                         increased SG&A expenses and higher depreciation and
                                                                         financial charges.
Consolidated Financials
                                                                         Valuations
                           FY'11    FY'12E      FY'13E       FY'14E
                                                                         Venus scrip has shown strong movement as its US patents
Sales                      3,631        4,196     4,788         5,546
                                                                         for research products came through. The share has
EBITDA                       892        1,022     1,186         1,395
                                                                         increased more 70% since we came up with our last
PAT                          462         493           610       755
                                                                         research report in Jun 2012.
EBITDA margin(%)           24.57        24.35     24.78         25.14
Net margin(%)                           11.74     12.75         13.62    Venus Remedies is currently trading at 5.4x ttm eps and
                           12.73
                                                                         4.8x ttm ebitda which is still well below most of its peers.
ROE(%)                     22.65        18.07     18.01         18.56
                                                                         The low valuations, and strong research pipeline, imply
ROCE(%)                    19.11        16.28     16.37         17.39
                                                                         current valuations are sustainable, with scope for further
P/E Ratio(x)                  3.9         5.7          4.6         3.7
                                                                         re-rating on positive research developments.
EV/EBITDA(x)                  4.1         4.8          4.2         3.5
EPS (Rs)                   50.63        50.56     62.65         77.55
                                                                 Rs mn

                            Four-s reports are available on BLOOMBERG, Reuters, Thomson Publishers and Market Publishers
Company Report: Venus Remedies                        10 Sep 2012




                    Steady growth in Q1 FY13, to continue through FY13



Particulars (Rs mn)           Q1 FY'13    Q1 FY'12   Q4 FY'12     % Chg YoY       % Chg QoQ
Net sales                        1120         989        1135            13.3            (1.3)
Total Operating Income           1126         990        1147            13.7            (1.8)
Total Expenditure                  829        709          864           16.9            (4.1)
Consumption of Raw                 652         622         647             4.8              0.9
Materials
(Inc)/Dec in Stock In              -30         -78            0         (62.0)                   -
Trade & WIP
Employees Cost                      57          55           56            4.6              2.3
Other Expenditure                  149         110         162            34.9            (8.0)
EBITDA                             297        281          283             5.7              5.1
Depreciation                        78         61           61            27.9             26.7
EBIT                               220        221          221           (0.5)           (0.8)
Interest & Finance charges          76          61           73           24.9              4.9
Other Income                          1          0            2          207.3           (37.3)
PBT                                145        160          151           (9.6)           (4.1)
Tax Expense                          4         24           -5          (82.4)         (186.2)
PAT                                141        136          156             3.1           (9.7)
                                               *Standalone (Source: Ace Equity, company reports)


                    Stable growth in Q1 FY13

FY13 growth         Venus Remedies reported revenue of Rs 1120mn in Q1 FY13, up
likely to remain    from Rs 989mn in same quarter last year, a good 13.3% growth over
in line with Q1     the last year. Strong domestic market performance has contributed
FY13 growth         to this growth. Domestic market grew from Rs 376mn in Q1 last year
                    to Rs 442mn in this quarter, a growth of 17.5% Y-o-Y. This gives
                    assurance that efforts taken by the company to boosts revenue in
                    the domestic market are on track.
                    The company believes that it will continue to drive the growth on
                    similar lines of 13-15% through-out the rest of the year with similar
                    performance expected from domestic & international market in the
                    near future.

                    Margins on the expected levels

                    The company has maintained margins in this quarter, EBITDA margin
                    at 26.4%, and 12.5% PAT margin. These margins are at par with its
                    historical figures and are on the expected lines. It clocked EBITDA of
                    Rs 297mn this quarter up from Rs 281mn in the same quarter last
                    year and PAT of Rs 140mn, up from Rs 136mn in Q1 FY12.
                    Company‟s efforts to improve reach in domestic and international


Four-S Research                                                                              2
Company Report: Venus Remedies                           10 Sep 2012

                      market has pushed the sales and distribution cost which has
                      marginally affected the EBITDA margins for this quarter. The
                      continued expenditure on R&D and other expenses has in effect
                      pushed up the financing cost and depreciation. This has resulted in
                      marginal dip in PAT margins.



                     Key Ratios                            Q1 FY'13      Q1 FY'12        Q4 FY'12

                     EBITDA Margin                           26.40%        28.40%        24.65%
                     Net Margin                              12.48%        13.75%        13.57%
                     Total Expenditure/Operating             73.60%        71.60%        75.35%
                     Income
                     Raw Material Cost/Operating             55.31%        54.94%        56.38%
                     Income
                     Staff Cost/Operating Income               5.07%       5.51%           4.86%
                     Other Expenditure/Operating             13.22%        11.14%        14.11%
                     Income
                     *Standalone (Source: Ace Equity, company reports)


                      Margins compare favourably with peers

Maintains             Venus Remedies‟ operating margins continue to be at the higher end
strong margins        of its peer set. Most midcap pharma companies, including injectable
                      companies, have operating margins in the range of 15-25%. Venus‟s
                      reported EBITDA margin of 27% is better than most of this lot. It
                      must be noted that Venus books more R&D expense through its
                      balance sheet compared to its peers.
                      With recent patents and upcoming research product launches, Venus
                      could see further improvement in the EBITDA margins. We expect
                      this change to manifest from middle of FY14.

            Better profitability supporting the growth
                                    Q1’FY13                                                    Net
                                       Total                     EBITDA          Net       Income
       Company                       Income        EBITDA         Margin     Income         Margin
       Mid-Cap Peers
       Ajanta Pharma                     1718            371         22%        196           11%
       Indoco Remed                      1512            256         17%        104            7%
       Natco Pharma                      1345            290         22%        168           12%
       Nectar Life                       3936            604         15%        160            4%
       Parabolic Drugs                   3052            433         14%            98         3%


       Injectable Peers
       Strides Arcolab                   5083          1313          26%        905           18%
       Ahlcon Parenterals                 248             49         20%            23         9%
       Parenteral Drug                    716           -130        -18%        -302          -42%
       Claris Life                       1949            777         40%        323           17%


Four-S Research                                                                                     3
Company Report: Venus Remedies                       10 Sep 2012

       Kilitch drugs                    154           -1       -1%             29         19%
       Average                         1932         390        16%            169           6%


       Venus                           1120         297        27%            140         13%

                                                             (Source: Ace Equity, company reports)


                       R&D investments show greater results

                       Receives 2 US patents for its research products

2 significant US       The innovation cell of Venus Remedies has given some significant
patent awards          results this quarter. The Company received two patents from US
                       patent office for antibiotic products: Elores and Potentox. Both
                       products are from its anti microbial resistance (AMR) product line.
                       The US patents are significant achievement for Venus Remedies as
                       earlier the Company had patents mainly in EU and other regions like
                       Australia, South Africa and the developing world while missing out on
                       the major US market. These patents may further strengthen the
                       market‟s belief in Company‟s R&D capability and its ability to achieve
                       growth through its R&D products.

                       ‘Super Bug’ resistant drug patented in US

CSE1034, to be     Venus Remedies has received patent from the US Patent Office for a
launched as        breakthrough antibiotic product CSE1034. The new drug product
Elores in the      CSE1034, is an antibiotic adjuvant entity (AAE), has been found to be
Indian market,     effective against a wide range of drug resistant infections including
is the most        the `superbugs‟ like Carbapenemase resistant Metallo Beta
effective anti-    Lactamses (MBL) strains. Venus is planning to launch this drug in
biotic             India under the brand name ELORES and is planning to have a pre
formulation        IND meeting with US FDA for fast track approval of this product.
today                  The drug has been found safe while effectively dealing with
                       hospital    acquired (nosocomial) infections involving Metallo Beta
                       Lactamase and other resistant strains such as E. coli, K. pneumoniae,
                       P. aeruginosa & A. baumanni, with reduced drug induced toxicity
                       resulting in lesser adverse effects.

                       US patent for Potentox

                       Venus Remedies has received patent from the US Patent Office for
                       Potentox, the patent protects the composition of Potentox and
                       the method of treatment.
                       The Patent provides an exclusivity period for Potentox until May,
                       2027. In addition to this new patent grant, Potentox is protected by a
                       number of other patents from across the Globe including India,
                       Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, South Africa and Ukraine.
                       The Company has already been marketing Potentox successfully in
                       India and few of the emerging markets around the globe. The

Four-S Research                                                                                4
Company Report: Venus Remedies                        10 Sep 2012

                      product is growing with a CAGR of 50% since past 3 years and now
                      Venus is planning to have a pre IND meeting with US FDA for fast
                      track approval of this product.

                      Designed novel, patented technology for anti cancer products
DPPC is a             The Company has established pre-clinical proof of concept for its
patented drug         Drug–Protein-Polymer-Conjugate (DPPC). The DPPC concept by
delivery              Venus is a novel, patent protected technology, which will help in
platform              alleviating cancer by specific and selective targeting of tumor cells.
                      This is a platform technology with a novel concept of triple conjugate
                      i.e., Drug -Protein-Polymer- Conjugate (DPPC).

                      New Product launched: Taxedol

Taxedol is a          Venus Remedies Limited has introduced for the first time a nano
ready to use          technology based “Ready-to-Use” single vial Docetaxel in the
single vial           domestic market under the brand name “TAXEDOL”. This one-vial
cancer product        formulation has the advantage of requiring a single dilution step in
                      suitable infusion solutions prior to administration. The product caters
                      to the Rs 15bn Indian Cancer Drug Industry, which is expected to
                      grow at close to 20% over the coming few years.



                      Valuation: Available at decent bargain even after the upsurge



                                                                      EV/        EV/
   Company                 Sales     Price    Mcap          EV     EBITDA       Sales         P/E
   Mid-Cap Peers
   Ajanta Pharma*           6435       411     9629     11228            8.4       1.7       13.2
   Indoco Rem*              5851        69     6322      7191            8.6       1.2       14.1
   Natco Pharma             5369       348    10849     11918            9.8       2.2       17.6
   Nectar Life             14874        20     4496      4496            1.7       0.3         5.3
   Parabolic Drugs*        10377        24     1507      6285            3.8       0.6         3.3
   Injectable Peers
   Strides Arco            24916       886    52026     57982          68.0        2.3         6.1
   Ahlcon
   Parenterals*              825       340     2448      2616          18.3        3.2       45.8
   Parenteral Drugs         3333        70     1806      5502         -79.5        1.7        -2.3
   Claris LIfe              7657       219    13986     14817            6.9       1.9       11.4
   Kilitch Drugs*            914        80     1057        947         14.5        1.0       35.7

   Venus Remedies           4181       286     2785      4579            4.8       1.1         5.4
                                                  *Standalone (Source: Ace Equity, company reports)

Stock has seen        Venus has seen a partial re-rating since we made our initiatial
rerating, but         research report. The share price has moved from 161 on 4 th June to
still cheap           around 280-290 now. The driver behind the rerating has been the
                      award of new patents for the US markets, which has bolstered
                      investor confidence in the Company‟s research capabilities.


Four-S Research                                                                                 5
Company Report: Venus Remedies                                                                                                                                   10 Sep 2012

                                                          Venus is currently trading at PE ratio of 5.4x which is still at 68%
                                                          discount of its peers average. With current US patents approvals,
                                                          regular product launch schedule and stable financial performance, we
                                                          believe current valuations are sustainable, with upside based on
                                                          further positive show from its R&D efforts.
                                                          We raise our target price expectations to Rs 350 by Sep‟13, implying
                                                          an upside potential upside of 22%. At this price the company quotes
                                                          at 4.5x FY14 expected eps and 4x FY14 expected EV/EBITDA.



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Four-S Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   6
Company Report: Venus Remedies                10 Sep 2012




                         Financial Annexure

Profit & Loss Statement

Income Statement                     FY'08   FY'09   FY'10   FY'11   FY'12E   FY'13E    FY'14E
Gross Sales                          2,165   2,692   3,144   3,637    4,196     4,795    5,554
Less : Excise Duty                      9       4       4       6         0         7          8
Revenue from Operations              2,156   2,688   3,140   3,631    4,196     4,788    5,546
Decrease/(Increase) in Stock           -48     -82     -62     -39      -90       -66       -77
Raw Materials Consumed                1336    1668    1885    2054     2398     2666      3055
Manufacturing/Other expenses            73     107     147     171      199      228       264
Payments to and provision for
employees                              119     141     167     200      253      301       362
Power & Fuel Cost                       19      20      17      27       34       38           44
Selling and Distribution Expenses       62      98     153     198      231      264       305
Administrative & Other expenses         57      87      91     119      150      171       198
Miscellaneous Expenses                  25      23      14       9        0         0          0
Total Expenses                       1,643   2,063   2,413   2,739    3,174     3,602    4,152
EBITDA                                512     625     728     892     1,022     1,186    1,395
Depreciation                            50      68     125     181      249      275       307
EBIT                                   462     558     603     711      773      912     1,087
Other Income                            19       3       2       4       11       13           15
Financial Expenses                      48      84     141     189      256      256       256
Profit before tax and
Exceptional Items                      433     477     464     526      528      668       846

Exceptional Items                        -       -       -       -        -         -            -
Profit before tax                      433     477     464     526      528      668       846
Tax                                     75      37      68      64       36       58           90
Profit after tax before minority
interest                              358     440     396     462       493      610       755
Reported net profit                   358     440     396     462       493      610       755
                                                              (Rs mn), consolidated financials




Four-S Research                                                                            7
Company Report: Venus Remedies        10 Sep 2012


         Balance Sheet

Balance Sheet                   FY'08   FY'09   FY'10    FY'11     FY'12E      FY'13E     FY'14E
Shareholder's Equity
Share Capital
                                   85      85      85      133        188         188        188
Reserves and Surplus
                                  784   1,259    1,627   2,236       2,896       3,506      4,261
ESOPs
                                    -       -        -       -           -           -          -
Total equity capital
                                 890    1,386   1,712    2,369      3,083       3,693      4,449


Liabilities
Secured Loans
                                  475     698     917    1,648       1,966       1,966      1,966
Unsecured Loans
                                  482     618     577      221        215         215        215
Deferred Tax Liability
                                   42      60      76       92         94          96          96


Total Liabilities and Owner's
Equity                          1,889   2,762   3,281    4,330      5,358       5,971      6,726


Assets
Goodwill on consolidation
                                    -       -        -       -           -           -          -
Gross Block
                                1,526   2,096    2,609   3,429       4,332       4,930      5,653
   Less: Depreciation
                                  138     192     314      496        745        1019       1326
Net Fixed Assets
                                 1388    1905    2295     2933       3588        3911       4327
Work-in-progress
                                   14       8       7      145        200         225        325
Investments
                                    -       -        -       -           -           -          -
Inventory
                                  278     446     619      754        960        1066       1200
Debtors
                                  169     330     283      357        430         535        619
Cash and Bank Balance
                                   11      16      24       31         42          67          95
Other Current Assets
                                    0       0       0        0           0           0          0
Loans and Advances
                                  183     239     260      378        464         583        700
Total Current Assets
                                1,518   1,519   1,520    1,521      1,522       1,523      1,524


Current Liabilities
                                   86     113      98      116        190         250        330
Provision
                                  106      92     121      162        145         175        220
Total Current Liabilities
                                 192     205      220     278         335         425        550
Net Current Assets
                                 449     825      967    1242        1561        1825       2064
Total Assets
                                1889    2762     3281    4330        5358        5971       6726
                                                                  (Rs mn), consolidated financials




         Four-S Research                                                             8
Company Report: Venus Remedies                          10 Sep 2012

        Cash Flow Statement

Cash Flow Statement                               FY'08   FY'09   FY'10       FY'11    FY'12E     FY'13E   FY'14E

Net Profit/(Loss) before Tax                        433     477     464         526       528        668        846
Depreciation                                         50      52      125        182       249        275        307
Deferred Employee Compensations                       4       2           2       0         0          0         0
Expenses Amortised                                   15      14       13          9         0          0         0
Adjustment of excess mat Transferred to gen
reserve                                               0       0      -15         53        52         53         50
Adjustment for FBT                                   -2      -3       25          4         0          0         0
Operating Cash flow before Wcap                     500     541     613         774       830        996       1203

Adjustments for increase /decrease in Current
Assets                                             -275    -275     -148        -327     -365       -329       -336
Decrease / Increase in Current Liabilities/
Provisions                                          -33     -72     -123         -73       57         90        125
Extraordinary Items                                  -2      -4           0       0         0          0         0
Cash Generated from Operations                      190     189      342        373       522        756        992
Direct Taxes Paid                                     0       0           0       0       -86       -109       -140
Operating Cash flow- A                              190     189     342         373       436        647        852


Purchase/Sale of Fixed Assets (net)                -743    -570     -512        -820     -904       -598       -724


Decrease in Capital Work-in-Progress (including
capital advances)                                   403       6           0     -144      -55        -25       -100
Interest received                                     1       0           0       0         0          0         0
Cash from Investing activities- B                  -338    -564     -512        -964     -959       -623       -824


Proceeds from Issue of Share Capital                  0       0           0      48        54          0         0
proceed from share capital(share premium)           -26     198           0     175       166          0         0
Proceeds from Long Term Borrowing( Net)             133     160       25        731       318          0         0
Proceeds from Short term Borrowing( Net)             22      20      153        -357       -6          0         0



Cash from Financing activities- C                   129     379     178         598       533          0         0
Change in Cash= A+B+C                               -19       5           8       7        11         25         28
Opening Balance                                      30      11      13          24        31         42         67
Closing Balance                                      11      16      21          31        42         67         95
                                                                                (Rs mn), consolidated financials




        Four-S Research                                                                                    9
Company Report: Venus Remedies              10 Sep 2012

  Ratios
Ratios                             FY'08   FY'09   FY'10   FY'11   FY'12E   FY'13E   FY'14E

EPS                                 42.4    52.0    46.7    50.6     50.6     62.6     77.5
CEPS                                22.5    22.4    40.4    40.9     44.8     66.5     87.4
DPS                                  2.0     2.5     1.0     1.3      1.4      1.7      2.1


Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio                            9.1     2.9     5.5     4.0      5.7      4.6      3.7
EV/EBITDA                            8.2     4.1     5.0     4.1      4.8      4.2      3.5
EV/Sales                             2.0     1.0     1.2     1.0      1.2      1.0      0.9


Profitability
EBITDA margin                      23.8%   23.3%   23.2%   24.6%   24.4%    24.8%    25.1%
Pretax margin                      20.1%   17.7%   14.8%   14.5%   12.6%    14.0%    15.3%
Net margin                         16.6%   16.4%   12.6%   12.7%   11.7%    12.7%    13.6%
Return on avg. Equity              21.7%   38.6%   25.5%   22.7%   18.1%    18.0%    18.6%
Return on avg. Capital employed    18.1%   24.5%   20.4%   19.1%   16.3%    16.4%    17.4%


Growth Ratios
Revenue growth                     53.7%   24.7%   16.8%   15.6%   15.6%    14.1%    15.8%
EBITDA growth                      69.3%   22.0%   16.3%   22.6%   14.5%    16.1%    17.6%
Net profit growth                  52.5%   10.0%   -2.7%   16.8%    6.6%    23.9%    23.8%


Activity/Turnover Ratios
Asset turnover                       0.9     1.3     1.1     1.0      0.9      0.9      0.9
Working Cap turnover                 6.2     4.2     3.5     3.3      3.0      2.8      2.9
Debtors turnover                    16.3    10.8    10.3    11.3     11.3      9.9      9.6
Debtor Days                         22.4    33.8    35.6    32.2     32.2     36.8     38.0
Inventory turnover                   9.4     7.4     5.9     5.3      4.9      4.7      4.9
Inventory Days                      38.8    49.2    61.9    69.0     74.6     77.2     74.6
Payables turnover                   32.2    27.0    29.7    33.8     27.4     21.8     19.1
Payables Days                       11.3    13.5    12.3    10.8     13.3     16.8     19.1


Liquidity Ratios
Current Ratio                        1.4     1.7     1.5     1.7      1.6      1.8      1.8
Cash Ratio                           0.2     0.1     0.1     0.1      0.1      0.1      0.2


Solvency
Debt Equity                          1.1     0.9     0.9     0.8      0.7      0.6      0.5
Leverage Ratio                       2.1     2.0     1.9     1.8      1.7      1.6      1.5
Net Debt / EBITDA                    1.8     2.1     2.0     2.1      2.1      1.8      1.5
Interest Coverage                    9.7     6.6     4.3     3.8      3.0      3.6      4.2




  Four-S Research                                                                        10
Company Report: Venus Remedies                                 10 Sep 2012


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Four-S Research                                                                                              11

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Venus remedies report_update

  • 1. C O M P A N Y U P D A T E India 14 Sep 2012 Venus Remedies Rs 287 Sector: Pharma Positive research results BSE Code 526953 NSE Code VENUSREM Venus Remedies has shown good progress from its CMP (Sep 13) 287.5 52W H/L 308/141 research development pipeline in recent months, Nifty 4,842 Sensex 18021 Equity Cap (m) 2,369 Face Value 10 with two of its innovative products getting patent Shares (m) 9.74 Free Float 65.29% approvals by the US patent office. This marks a big Market Cap (m) 2,816 3M Avg Vol 83524 stride in Venus’ ability show results from its R&D investments, and the market has reacted positively, Shareholding Pattern Jun-2012 rerating the stock upwards. We believe these valuations are sustainable, with more upside possible on further research gains valuations. Promoters 32% 35% 2 major US Patents approved FIIs/FVCI Domestic The company achieved positive vindication of its research Institutions efforts, with approval of US patents for two key products: Corporate Bodies Potentox, suitable for Nosocomial Pneumonia and Febrile 19% 14% Neutopenia infections treatment; and CSE1034, an antibiotic product effective against a range of drug resistant 0% infections. New research product launched 330 Price Performance Venus launched a new research based product, 300 nanotechnology based „Taxedol‟, a single vial Docetaxel 270 240 product. With market size of Rs 15bn in the domestic 210 market, this is a key product addition to its strong kitty of 180 cancer products. 150 120 Top-line growth as per expectations 90 60 Venus has showed growth in revenue of 13.3% in Q1 FY13 30 (Apr-Jun‟12) in line with our expectations. The Company‟s - revenue reached Rs 1120mn in Q1‟FY13 from Rs 988.7 Jan-12 Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Aug- Sep- same quarter last year. Its EBITDA grew by 5.7% to Rs 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 281.2mn this quarter from Rs. 297.2mn in Q1‟FY12. It Venus Remedis Sensex registered PAT of Rs. 136.2mn up by 3.1% compared to Q1‟FY12. EBITDA and net margin are affected with increased SG&A expenses and higher depreciation and financial charges. Consolidated Financials Valuations FY'11 FY'12E FY'13E FY'14E Venus scrip has shown strong movement as its US patents Sales 3,631 4,196 4,788 5,546 for research products came through. The share has EBITDA 892 1,022 1,186 1,395 increased more 70% since we came up with our last PAT 462 493 610 755 research report in Jun 2012. EBITDA margin(%) 24.57 24.35 24.78 25.14 Net margin(%) 11.74 12.75 13.62 Venus Remedies is currently trading at 5.4x ttm eps and 12.73 4.8x ttm ebitda which is still well below most of its peers. ROE(%) 22.65 18.07 18.01 18.56 The low valuations, and strong research pipeline, imply ROCE(%) 19.11 16.28 16.37 17.39 current valuations are sustainable, with scope for further P/E Ratio(x) 3.9 5.7 4.6 3.7 re-rating on positive research developments. EV/EBITDA(x) 4.1 4.8 4.2 3.5 EPS (Rs) 50.63 50.56 62.65 77.55 Rs mn Four-s reports are available on BLOOMBERG, Reuters, Thomson Publishers and Market Publishers
  • 2. Company Report: Venus Remedies 10 Sep 2012 Steady growth in Q1 FY13, to continue through FY13 Particulars (Rs mn) Q1 FY'13 Q1 FY'12 Q4 FY'12 % Chg YoY % Chg QoQ Net sales 1120 989 1135 13.3 (1.3) Total Operating Income 1126 990 1147 13.7 (1.8) Total Expenditure 829 709 864 16.9 (4.1) Consumption of Raw 652 622 647 4.8 0.9 Materials (Inc)/Dec in Stock In -30 -78 0 (62.0) - Trade & WIP Employees Cost 57 55 56 4.6 2.3 Other Expenditure 149 110 162 34.9 (8.0) EBITDA 297 281 283 5.7 5.1 Depreciation 78 61 61 27.9 26.7 EBIT 220 221 221 (0.5) (0.8) Interest & Finance charges 76 61 73 24.9 4.9 Other Income 1 0 2 207.3 (37.3) PBT 145 160 151 (9.6) (4.1) Tax Expense 4 24 -5 (82.4) (186.2) PAT 141 136 156 3.1 (9.7) *Standalone (Source: Ace Equity, company reports) Stable growth in Q1 FY13 FY13 growth Venus Remedies reported revenue of Rs 1120mn in Q1 FY13, up likely to remain from Rs 989mn in same quarter last year, a good 13.3% growth over in line with Q1 the last year. Strong domestic market performance has contributed FY13 growth to this growth. Domestic market grew from Rs 376mn in Q1 last year to Rs 442mn in this quarter, a growth of 17.5% Y-o-Y. This gives assurance that efforts taken by the company to boosts revenue in the domestic market are on track. The company believes that it will continue to drive the growth on similar lines of 13-15% through-out the rest of the year with similar performance expected from domestic & international market in the near future. Margins on the expected levels The company has maintained margins in this quarter, EBITDA margin at 26.4%, and 12.5% PAT margin. These margins are at par with its historical figures and are on the expected lines. It clocked EBITDA of Rs 297mn this quarter up from Rs 281mn in the same quarter last year and PAT of Rs 140mn, up from Rs 136mn in Q1 FY12. Company‟s efforts to improve reach in domestic and international Four-S Research 2
  • 3. Company Report: Venus Remedies 10 Sep 2012 market has pushed the sales and distribution cost which has marginally affected the EBITDA margins for this quarter. The continued expenditure on R&D and other expenses has in effect pushed up the financing cost and depreciation. This has resulted in marginal dip in PAT margins. Key Ratios Q1 FY'13 Q1 FY'12 Q4 FY'12 EBITDA Margin 26.40% 28.40% 24.65% Net Margin 12.48% 13.75% 13.57% Total Expenditure/Operating 73.60% 71.60% 75.35% Income Raw Material Cost/Operating 55.31% 54.94% 56.38% Income Staff Cost/Operating Income 5.07% 5.51% 4.86% Other Expenditure/Operating 13.22% 11.14% 14.11% Income *Standalone (Source: Ace Equity, company reports) Margins compare favourably with peers Maintains Venus Remedies‟ operating margins continue to be at the higher end strong margins of its peer set. Most midcap pharma companies, including injectable companies, have operating margins in the range of 15-25%. Venus‟s reported EBITDA margin of 27% is better than most of this lot. It must be noted that Venus books more R&D expense through its balance sheet compared to its peers. With recent patents and upcoming research product launches, Venus could see further improvement in the EBITDA margins. We expect this change to manifest from middle of FY14. Better profitability supporting the growth Q1’FY13 Net Total EBITDA Net Income Company Income EBITDA Margin Income Margin Mid-Cap Peers Ajanta Pharma 1718 371 22% 196 11% Indoco Remed 1512 256 17% 104 7% Natco Pharma 1345 290 22% 168 12% Nectar Life 3936 604 15% 160 4% Parabolic Drugs 3052 433 14% 98 3% Injectable Peers Strides Arcolab 5083 1313 26% 905 18% Ahlcon Parenterals 248 49 20% 23 9% Parenteral Drug 716 -130 -18% -302 -42% Claris Life 1949 777 40% 323 17% Four-S Research 3
  • 4. Company Report: Venus Remedies 10 Sep 2012 Kilitch drugs 154 -1 -1% 29 19% Average 1932 390 16% 169 6% Venus 1120 297 27% 140 13% (Source: Ace Equity, company reports) R&D investments show greater results Receives 2 US patents for its research products 2 significant US The innovation cell of Venus Remedies has given some significant patent awards results this quarter. The Company received two patents from US patent office for antibiotic products: Elores and Potentox. Both products are from its anti microbial resistance (AMR) product line. The US patents are significant achievement for Venus Remedies as earlier the Company had patents mainly in EU and other regions like Australia, South Africa and the developing world while missing out on the major US market. These patents may further strengthen the market‟s belief in Company‟s R&D capability and its ability to achieve growth through its R&D products. ‘Super Bug’ resistant drug patented in US CSE1034, to be Venus Remedies has received patent from the US Patent Office for a launched as breakthrough antibiotic product CSE1034. The new drug product Elores in the CSE1034, is an antibiotic adjuvant entity (AAE), has been found to be Indian market, effective against a wide range of drug resistant infections including is the most the `superbugs‟ like Carbapenemase resistant Metallo Beta effective anti- Lactamses (MBL) strains. Venus is planning to launch this drug in biotic India under the brand name ELORES and is planning to have a pre formulation IND meeting with US FDA for fast track approval of this product. today The drug has been found safe while effectively dealing with hospital acquired (nosocomial) infections involving Metallo Beta Lactamase and other resistant strains such as E. coli, K. pneumoniae, P. aeruginosa & A. baumanni, with reduced drug induced toxicity resulting in lesser adverse effects. US patent for Potentox Venus Remedies has received patent from the US Patent Office for Potentox, the patent protects the composition of Potentox and the method of treatment. The Patent provides an exclusivity period for Potentox until May, 2027. In addition to this new patent grant, Potentox is protected by a number of other patents from across the Globe including India, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, South Africa and Ukraine. The Company has already been marketing Potentox successfully in India and few of the emerging markets around the globe. The Four-S Research 4
  • 5. Company Report: Venus Remedies 10 Sep 2012 product is growing with a CAGR of 50% since past 3 years and now Venus is planning to have a pre IND meeting with US FDA for fast track approval of this product. Designed novel, patented technology for anti cancer products DPPC is a The Company has established pre-clinical proof of concept for its patented drug Drug–Protein-Polymer-Conjugate (DPPC). The DPPC concept by delivery Venus is a novel, patent protected technology, which will help in platform alleviating cancer by specific and selective targeting of tumor cells. This is a platform technology with a novel concept of triple conjugate i.e., Drug -Protein-Polymer- Conjugate (DPPC). New Product launched: Taxedol Taxedol is a Venus Remedies Limited has introduced for the first time a nano ready to use technology based “Ready-to-Use” single vial Docetaxel in the single vial domestic market under the brand name “TAXEDOL”. This one-vial cancer product formulation has the advantage of requiring a single dilution step in suitable infusion solutions prior to administration. The product caters to the Rs 15bn Indian Cancer Drug Industry, which is expected to grow at close to 20% over the coming few years. Valuation: Available at decent bargain even after the upsurge EV/ EV/ Company Sales Price Mcap EV EBITDA Sales P/E Mid-Cap Peers Ajanta Pharma* 6435 411 9629 11228 8.4 1.7 13.2 Indoco Rem* 5851 69 6322 7191 8.6 1.2 14.1 Natco Pharma 5369 348 10849 11918 9.8 2.2 17.6 Nectar Life 14874 20 4496 4496 1.7 0.3 5.3 Parabolic Drugs* 10377 24 1507 6285 3.8 0.6 3.3 Injectable Peers Strides Arco 24916 886 52026 57982 68.0 2.3 6.1 Ahlcon Parenterals* 825 340 2448 2616 18.3 3.2 45.8 Parenteral Drugs 3333 70 1806 5502 -79.5 1.7 -2.3 Claris LIfe 7657 219 13986 14817 6.9 1.9 11.4 Kilitch Drugs* 914 80 1057 947 14.5 1.0 35.7 Venus Remedies 4181 286 2785 4579 4.8 1.1 5.4 *Standalone (Source: Ace Equity, company reports) Stock has seen Venus has seen a partial re-rating since we made our initiatial rerating, but research report. The share price has moved from 161 on 4 th June to still cheap around 280-290 now. The driver behind the rerating has been the award of new patents for the US markets, which has bolstered investor confidence in the Company‟s research capabilities. Four-S Research 5
  • 6. Company Report: Venus Remedies 10 Sep 2012 Venus is currently trading at PE ratio of 5.4x which is still at 68% discount of its peers average. With current US patents approvals, regular product launch schedule and stable financial performance, we believe current valuations are sustainable, with upside based on further positive show from its R&D efforts. We raise our target price expectations to Rs 350 by Sep‟13, implying an upside potential upside of 22%. At this price the company quotes at 4.5x FY14 expected eps and 4x FY14 expected EV/EBITDA. Share Price and tt 400 350 7x 300 250 5x 200 150 3x 100 50 0 May-… Aug-… May-… Aug-… May-… Aug-… Nov-… Dec-… Mar-… Nov-… Dec-… Mar-… Nov-… Dec-… Mar-… Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Sep-10 Feb-11 Sep-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jul-12 Jan-12 Four-S Research 6
  • 7. Company Report: Venus Remedies 10 Sep 2012 Financial Annexure Profit & Loss Statement Income Statement FY'08 FY'09 FY'10 FY'11 FY'12E FY'13E FY'14E Gross Sales 2,165 2,692 3,144 3,637 4,196 4,795 5,554 Less : Excise Duty 9 4 4 6 0 7 8 Revenue from Operations 2,156 2,688 3,140 3,631 4,196 4,788 5,546 Decrease/(Increase) in Stock -48 -82 -62 -39 -90 -66 -77 Raw Materials Consumed 1336 1668 1885 2054 2398 2666 3055 Manufacturing/Other expenses 73 107 147 171 199 228 264 Payments to and provision for employees 119 141 167 200 253 301 362 Power & Fuel Cost 19 20 17 27 34 38 44 Selling and Distribution Expenses 62 98 153 198 231 264 305 Administrative & Other expenses 57 87 91 119 150 171 198 Miscellaneous Expenses 25 23 14 9 0 0 0 Total Expenses 1,643 2,063 2,413 2,739 3,174 3,602 4,152 EBITDA 512 625 728 892 1,022 1,186 1,395 Depreciation 50 68 125 181 249 275 307 EBIT 462 558 603 711 773 912 1,087 Other Income 19 3 2 4 11 13 15 Financial Expenses 48 84 141 189 256 256 256 Profit before tax and Exceptional Items 433 477 464 526 528 668 846 Exceptional Items - - - - - - - Profit before tax 433 477 464 526 528 668 846 Tax 75 37 68 64 36 58 90 Profit after tax before minority interest 358 440 396 462 493 610 755 Reported net profit 358 440 396 462 493 610 755 (Rs mn), consolidated financials Four-S Research 7
  • 8. Company Report: Venus Remedies 10 Sep 2012 Balance Sheet Balance Sheet FY'08 FY'09 FY'10 FY'11 FY'12E FY'13E FY'14E Shareholder's Equity Share Capital 85 85 85 133 188 188 188 Reserves and Surplus 784 1,259 1,627 2,236 2,896 3,506 4,261 ESOPs - - - - - - - Total equity capital 890 1,386 1,712 2,369 3,083 3,693 4,449 Liabilities Secured Loans 475 698 917 1,648 1,966 1,966 1,966 Unsecured Loans 482 618 577 221 215 215 215 Deferred Tax Liability 42 60 76 92 94 96 96 Total Liabilities and Owner's Equity 1,889 2,762 3,281 4,330 5,358 5,971 6,726 Assets Goodwill on consolidation - - - - - - - Gross Block 1,526 2,096 2,609 3,429 4,332 4,930 5,653 Less: Depreciation 138 192 314 496 745 1019 1326 Net Fixed Assets 1388 1905 2295 2933 3588 3911 4327 Work-in-progress 14 8 7 145 200 225 325 Investments - - - - - - - Inventory 278 446 619 754 960 1066 1200 Debtors 169 330 283 357 430 535 619 Cash and Bank Balance 11 16 24 31 42 67 95 Other Current Assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Loans and Advances 183 239 260 378 464 583 700 Total Current Assets 1,518 1,519 1,520 1,521 1,522 1,523 1,524 Current Liabilities 86 113 98 116 190 250 330 Provision 106 92 121 162 145 175 220 Total Current Liabilities 192 205 220 278 335 425 550 Net Current Assets 449 825 967 1242 1561 1825 2064 Total Assets 1889 2762 3281 4330 5358 5971 6726 (Rs mn), consolidated financials Four-S Research 8
  • 9. Company Report: Venus Remedies 10 Sep 2012 Cash Flow Statement Cash Flow Statement FY'08 FY'09 FY'10 FY'11 FY'12E FY'13E FY'14E Net Profit/(Loss) before Tax 433 477 464 526 528 668 846 Depreciation 50 52 125 182 249 275 307 Deferred Employee Compensations 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 Expenses Amortised 15 14 13 9 0 0 0 Adjustment of excess mat Transferred to gen reserve 0 0 -15 53 52 53 50 Adjustment for FBT -2 -3 25 4 0 0 0 Operating Cash flow before Wcap 500 541 613 774 830 996 1203 Adjustments for increase /decrease in Current Assets -275 -275 -148 -327 -365 -329 -336 Decrease / Increase in Current Liabilities/ Provisions -33 -72 -123 -73 57 90 125 Extraordinary Items -2 -4 0 0 0 0 0 Cash Generated from Operations 190 189 342 373 522 756 992 Direct Taxes Paid 0 0 0 0 -86 -109 -140 Operating Cash flow- A 190 189 342 373 436 647 852 Purchase/Sale of Fixed Assets (net) -743 -570 -512 -820 -904 -598 -724 Decrease in Capital Work-in-Progress (including capital advances) 403 6 0 -144 -55 -25 -100 Interest received 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cash from Investing activities- B -338 -564 -512 -964 -959 -623 -824 Proceeds from Issue of Share Capital 0 0 0 48 54 0 0 proceed from share capital(share premium) -26 198 0 175 166 0 0 Proceeds from Long Term Borrowing( Net) 133 160 25 731 318 0 0 Proceeds from Short term Borrowing( Net) 22 20 153 -357 -6 0 0 Cash from Financing activities- C 129 379 178 598 533 0 0 Change in Cash= A+B+C -19 5 8 7 11 25 28 Opening Balance 30 11 13 24 31 42 67 Closing Balance 11 16 21 31 42 67 95 (Rs mn), consolidated financials Four-S Research 9
  • 10. Company Report: Venus Remedies 10 Sep 2012 Ratios Ratios FY'08 FY'09 FY'10 FY'11 FY'12E FY'13E FY'14E EPS 42.4 52.0 46.7 50.6 50.6 62.6 77.5 CEPS 22.5 22.4 40.4 40.9 44.8 66.5 87.4 DPS 2.0 2.5 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.7 2.1 Valuation Ratios P/E Ratio 9.1 2.9 5.5 4.0 5.7 4.6 3.7 EV/EBITDA 8.2 4.1 5.0 4.1 4.8 4.2 3.5 EV/Sales 2.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.9 Profitability EBITDA margin 23.8% 23.3% 23.2% 24.6% 24.4% 24.8% 25.1% Pretax margin 20.1% 17.7% 14.8% 14.5% 12.6% 14.0% 15.3% Net margin 16.6% 16.4% 12.6% 12.7% 11.7% 12.7% 13.6% Return on avg. Equity 21.7% 38.6% 25.5% 22.7% 18.1% 18.0% 18.6% Return on avg. Capital employed 18.1% 24.5% 20.4% 19.1% 16.3% 16.4% 17.4% Growth Ratios Revenue growth 53.7% 24.7% 16.8% 15.6% 15.6% 14.1% 15.8% EBITDA growth 69.3% 22.0% 16.3% 22.6% 14.5% 16.1% 17.6% Net profit growth 52.5% 10.0% -2.7% 16.8% 6.6% 23.9% 23.8% Activity/Turnover Ratios Asset turnover 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 Working Cap turnover 6.2 4.2 3.5 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.9 Debtors turnover 16.3 10.8 10.3 11.3 11.3 9.9 9.6 Debtor Days 22.4 33.8 35.6 32.2 32.2 36.8 38.0 Inventory turnover 9.4 7.4 5.9 5.3 4.9 4.7 4.9 Inventory Days 38.8 49.2 61.9 69.0 74.6 77.2 74.6 Payables turnover 32.2 27.0 29.7 33.8 27.4 21.8 19.1 Payables Days 11.3 13.5 12.3 10.8 13.3 16.8 19.1 Liquidity Ratios Current Ratio 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.8 Cash Ratio 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 Solvency Debt Equity 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 Leverage Ratio 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 Net Debt / EBITDA 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.5 Interest Coverage 9.7 6.6 4.3 3.8 3.0 3.6 4.2 Four-S Research 10
  • 11. Company Report: Venus Remedies 10 Sep 2012 About Four-S Services Founded in 2002, Four-S Services is a financial boutique providing Research, Financial Consulting and Investment Banking services. We have executed more than 100+ mandates across diverse range of industries for Indian as well as global companies, investment firms and private equity and venture capital firms. Our clients value our focused, actionable advice which is based on deep domain expertise in Education, Financial Services, Media & Entertainment, Healthcare, Consumer Goods, Automotive, Energy, Logistics and Manufacturing. For further information on the company please visit www.four-s.com Disclaimer The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation, warranty, guarantee or undertaking, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of any information, projections or opinions contained in this document. Four-S Services Pvt. Ltd. will not accept any liability whatsoever, with respect to the use of this document or its contents. This Company commissioned document has been distributed for information purposes only and does not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities. This document shall not form the basis of and should not be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others. Four-S may from time to time solicit from, or perform consulting or other services for any company mentioned in this document. For further details/clarifications please contact: Alok Somwanshi Ajay Jindal Alok.somwanshi@four-s.com Ajay.jindal@four-s.com Tel: +91-22-42153659 Tel: +91-22-42153659 Four-S Research 11