Oby Ezekwesili recently gave a speech at The Platform in Abuja. It was quite a good speech and with her permission, I am publishing the accompanying slides to the speech

1. THE HOLISTIC LOOK AT THE NIGERIAN
ECONOMY AND ITS POTENTIALS
BY OBIAGELI “OBY” EZEKWESILI

2. GOOD GOVERNANCE

4. ECONOMIC
PHILOSOPHY

6. A CASE STUDY
OF CHINA

7. The Rise of China & Embrace of
Markets
• From 1981 to 2008, China’s
poverty rate fell from 85% to
15.9%, or by over 600
million people
• China accounts for nearly all
the world’s reduction in
poverty
• Excluding China, poverty fell
only by around 10%
globalissues.com

9. Singapore & Nigeria
A tale of two countries
World Bank; Google Public Data

11. Monetary and Fiscal Policies are the instruments
of response to changes in local and global
economy.
Key highlights of our Relative Macroeconomic Stability through
monetary and fiscal policies since 1999 to May 2015
FISCAL PRUDENCE/FISCAL DEFICIT NOT ABOVE 3%
DEBT MANAGEMENT
SINGLE DIGIT INFLATION
INTEREST RATE & POST 5% GDP GROWTH

12. PILLAGING AND MISUSE OF HUGE OIL REVENUE
OIL PRICE SHOCK & THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
EFFECT OF WRONG FOREIGN EXCHANGE POLICY
PRICING A NATIONAL CURRENCY
DIVERGENCE OF OBJECTIVES

13. $690bnNigeria’s Federally Collected
Revenue from 1999 – 2014
stood at $690bn
WHERE IS
THE MONEY?
CBN; Budget Office of the Federation

14. CURRENT
ACCOUNT
DEFICIT
GAP
World Bank; Google Public Data

15. In era of low oil prices, what are petro-states
doing?

16. THE VENEZUELA WAY
Venezuela has challenges with
currency controls and state
planned economies

17. NIGERIA
Capital Importation
Declines
Evidence shows that as the Nigeria
Government tries to “protect” the
Currency, fiscal and monetary
indicators are blinking red.
Source: NBS

18. NIGERIA
Growth is
tanking
Evidence shows that as the Nigeria
Government tries to “protect” the
Currency, fiscal and monetary
indicators are blinking red.

19. NIGERIA
Inflation rises to double digits
Evidence shows that as the Nigeria
Government tries to “protect” the
Currency, fiscal and monetary
indicators are blinking red.

20. NIGERIA
Unemployment
Rises
Evidence shows that as
the Nigerian
Government tries to
“protect” the currency,
fiscal and monetary
indicators are blinking
red.

21. NIGERIA
External Reserves
Sliding
Evidence shows that as the
Nigerian Government tries to
“protect” the currency, fiscal and
monetary
indicators are blinking red.
-$2.4bn
Nigeria foreign reserves from $29.59bn
to $27.1bn has lost $2.5bn since this
government took over in May 29, 2015.
Is this currency inflexibility working?
We are stuck with $27bn as our
reserves needs a six-month import
cover.

22. • Non-Oil Exports Volume Declines
Volume for non-crude exports declines
from N4.4tn to N2.7tn in 2014
• Job losses & Industry Contraction
Stagnancy at retail industry as e-commerce
platforms and other agencies are downsizing
NIGERIA
It is time to rise up
Evidence shows that as the Nigerian
Government tries to “protect” the
Currency, fiscal and monetary
indicators are blinking red.

23. • Currency Peg and Fuel Scarcity
Current selective allocation of forex when price adjustment is needed
stopped private marketers from importing thus creating an import
logistics and availability crisis.
• Budget Crisis with fiscal stagnation
Nigeria fiscal deficit rises to N2.2tn and government without price
adjustment is starving itself of revenue, putting unnecessary strain on
borrowing for capex.
• States Fiscal Crisis
Despite a bailout of N1tn in salary assistance and loans, states are
not out of the woods.
NIGERIA
It is time to rise up
Evidence shows that as the Nigerian
Government tries to “protect” the
Currency, fiscal and monetary
indicators are blinking red.

24. DEVALUATION
THINGS TO NOTE
•Flexibility ensures you do not run out of reserve,
ensures manageable uncertainty and keeps policy
responsiveness attractive to both citizens and
business. More effective in combination with Tariffs in
controlling import.
•Defreeze Forex Supply-Side Barriers: Agriculture
productivity and export can respond and expand on
the back of our weaker currency. Don’t say we have
“nothing else but oil to export”. China, Vietnam,
Indonesia, South Korea all once had “nothing to
export”. Exchange rate policy was key to their global
competitiveness and it was not just about “strong
currency” .
•Transparent market based allocation reduces
opportunities for misallocation of scarce exchange

25. THE DOWNSIDES OF
DEVALUATION
We are right to worry about the inflationary impact
of Devaluation. It is real.
Regrettably though, current indicators all point to
the fact that under the extant forex policy stance we
are already suffering that impact without getting the
aforementioned benefits of a more deliberate
approach at adjusting the Naira. THE POOR ARE
WORST HIT.
CURRENT SYSTEM PROMOTES
DISCRETION, OPAQUENESS, CORRUPTION& PATRONAGE.
INEFFICIENCY, DISTORTION, UNCERTAINTY AND DECLINE.
WRONG SIGNALING.
DEVALUATION
THINGS TO NOTE

26. MEDIUM- LONG TERM
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
DISRUPTING THE STRUCTURE OF
ECONOMIC STAGNATION.
PART 3

27. The biggest
economy in
Africa is one
of the least
diversified

28. Economic
Diversification
Index
Source: ACET research.

29. THE UNDERPERFORMANCE OF THE NIGERIAN
ECONOMY IS SEEN IN ITS SHRINKING MIDDLE
CLASS

30. MY ADVICE FOR
NIGERIA

31. LET’S FACE FORWARD
NOW!
Mentally shift the mindset from moaning
and groaning about what was done by the
previous administration to a
“THE-CHALLENGE-IS-DAUNTING-BUT-
WE- SHALL- FIX IT-MINDSET."
Once new government was sworn in 29th
May 2015 it inherited both the assets and
liabilities of Governance: The Theory of
Accountability!

32. Rebuild
Our
Social
Capital
• Commence Rebuilding our social capital-
inclusion, cohesion and justice. Hard
work. Effort, healthy
competition. Creativity, Innovation.
• Our President cannot “dislike” any
segment of his population.
Magnanimous in victory.
• The Igbos &the Niger
Deltans, expressed their own
legitimate choice in an election.
• It must not lead to their becoming
“ostracized” as a tacit policy of state.
#OfficeOfTheCitizen

33. Tackle Internal Insecurity of all
Manifestations
INTELLIGENCE.
INTELLIGENCE.
INTELLIGENCE.

34. KNOWLEDGE MUST INFORM POLICIES:
Evidence Based Choices: Analytics and
Empiricism

35. RAISING NIGERIA'S PRODUCTIVITY AND
COMPETITIVENESS- HUMAN CAPITAL LED
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
Defining our economic vision and strategy

36. JOBS, JOBS AND MORE JOBS:
At least 3-4 million NEW JOBS needed annually.
WHERE WILL THE JOBS COME FROM?
EMBRACE THE PRIVATE
SECTOR IN BOTH
WORDS AND DEEDS.

37. Where Shall the Jobs Come
From?
• Agric and Agri-business, Power, petroleum,
gas, solid minerals, aviation, roads, ports,
water and waterways, penetration of ICT,
housing, tourism.
• Become an Investment Friendly Destination
• Critical Infrastructure: Industrial Clusters
• Build massive army of World class skills and
talent for industry and enterprise

38. Where Shall the Jobs Come from?
• Increase the Role of Private sector in Economy:
• Reset the Incentive- Reward and Sanctions-
regime
• Make Manufacturing Cornerstone of Growth
strategy: Be Deliberate in targeting light
manufacturing industries in Asia seeking lower
labor cost destinations.
• Another look at the Economic Liberalization and
Deregulation Agenda using a sources of growth
identification process.

39. Equitable policies for young people,
women and the most vulnerable in
the society

40. National Economic Governance
Conference: this must be fully
representative

41. Think in time scenarios of
short, medium and long
term

42. Lay the foundation for a new political context
for lasting legacy
Reform our politics and save it from a decadent elite class. End the nexus
between politics and corruption money and other forms of illicit wealth.
The generation of our children are ready to take over the nation from
us but we must not allow lack of campaign finance stop them.

43. UNCERTAINTY IS COSTLY
AND PUNISHES NOT JUST AN
ECONOMY BUT THE
POOREST OF THE PEOPLE.
END IT NOW!

44. ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT IS
NOT ROCKET SCIENCE
BUT IT MUST BE SCIENTIFIC

45. SOUND MARKET ECONOMY
POLICIES HAVE THEIR RISKS
(Inequalities) BUT THEY CAN
BE WELL-MANAGED
BY CAPABLE GOVERNMENTS
THAT UNDERSTAND THEIR
ROLE.

46. JUST DO
IT!