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41-1311 | ww
lt in serious financ
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hat are comm
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ry 27, 2015
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lt in serious financ
Member of IIROC
, 2015
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www.rjobrien.c
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that they cou
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Why Mena matters to the Futures Markets - by Farah Kamal

  • 1. The MENA no officia Iran, Iraq, Emirates. important Agricultur Source: Bloomb The MENA 35% of oi OPEC Mid previous y would be week can (Globex: Z Much of t has been rather tha a compre aware tha is that alo some gen concentra foreign ex A region refe l listing of th , Kuwait, Liby The geograp t part of the ral Products a berg (BMAP) A region is of il production ddle Eastern year. To igno short sighted celled its ten ZW K15) futu the financial n paid to this a an a city in th hensive view at not every n ong with und neral knowled ating on how xchange mark Futures tradin Why the M rs to the geo e countries g ya, Qatar, Le phic position e story of m and Foreign E f great impor and 8 of its country, is e ore the impac d. As an exam nder on Febru res for delive news is centr area. For exa e UAE. My g w into what ca news story ou erstanding m dge of the re w MENA affec kets and ener g and/or Foreign suitable for ev MENA region graphical loc generally spea ebanon, Moro along with it many differen xchange. rtance to the 12 members estimated to ct of the MEN mple Egypt, b uary 17th whi ery falling 1.5% alized toward ample, many goal is to prov an affect the ut of the Midd more about h egion along cts specific c rgy I thought Exchange trading veryone. R.J. O’Br matters to th ation of the M aking the cou occo, Oman, ts abundant n nt commoditi price discove are located produce 980 NA region in being the wor ch many beli % on the CBO ds North Ame people have vide insight in price of the c dle East will h ow MENA aff the way. M commodities this would be Contac involves substant rien & Associates C he Futures M Middle East a untries includ Saudi Arabia natural resou ies ranging f ery of energy within this re 0,000 barrels addressing th rld’s leading i ieve directly OT. erica and not this misconc nto the MENA commodity m have an imme ffects the futu My intention i sectors. Giv e a great plac ct us:888-74 tial risk, may resul Canada Inc. is a M Markets and North Afr ded are Alger a, Tunisia and rces has mad from Energy, y markets as egion. Oman s a day up 4% he direction o mporter of w led to the pr much attent ception that D A region so fu markets that t ediate impact ures markets is to publish ven the recen ce to start. 41-1311 | ww lt in serious financ Member of IIROC rica. While th ria, Bahrain, E d the United de it an imme , Precious M OPEC accoun n, the biggest % higher tha of futures ma wheat, and jus rice of May W ion, in my op Dubai is a cou utures traders they follow a t either. My s you will also a monthly r nt volatility i www.rjobrien.c cial loss, and is no and Member CIP here is Egypt, Arab ensely Metals, nts for t non an the arkets st this Wheat pinion, untry, s have nd be y hope o gain report in the ca ot PF.
  • 2. Foreign Ex Each cou countries Council). many of debated througho addition m Iraq and S Country USD Reserves (mln) Source: Bloomb The Swiss the GCC c exponent Saudi Ara from the continues lower oil p It helps to convertib region th leave. xchange: ntry within t within this r The GCC cou which are ex for many ye ut the region many local re Syria use USD Saudi Arabia Alg 739967 183 berg/International M s Franc aband central banks ially year afte abia’s largest Euro which f s on the oppo prices. o look at eac ility. The co at can escala Futures tradin the MENA re region are the untries are co xtremely pros ears about fo n. All GCC co esidents in co D locally to pa geria Libya 3502 93291 Monetary Fund. doning its peg s to consider er year and h customer an finally may be osite side tha ch country’s nvertibility fa ate quickly w g and/or Foreign suitable for ev egion mainta en further div omprised of B sperous and ollowing the untries with untries witho y for goods. UAE Qa 75887 427 g to the Euro removing the as become a nd uses the R e coming to a at the signific currency, wh actor is espec with many du Exchange trading veryone. R.J. O’Br ains its own vided into an Bahrain, Kuwa hold a great European U the exceptio out pegs that atar Lebanon 734 40571.6 in January 20 eir US Dollar significant tra Renminbi, RM a conclusion cant rise of th hether they a cially importa al citizens of Contac involves substant rien & Associates C currency an n area known ait, Oman, Q t deal of wea Union’s lead n of Kuwait a t have underg n Kuwait M 32114 015 has given peg. UAE as ading partne MB, rather tha with speculat he US Dollar are pegged to ant given the f other count ct us:888-74 tial risk, may resul Canada Inc. is a M d central ba n as the GCC Qatar, Saudi A alth. The GC and having are pegged to gone significa Morocco Oma 20900.6 1632 n rise to the o s an example r with many c an USD. Wi tion for years has helped o o any other c e political ins tries who im 41-1311 | ww lt in serious financ Member of IIROC nk. Many o (Gulf Cooper Arabia and the CC Countries a single cur o the US Dol ant turmoil su an Egypt B 24 12512 ongoing deba has been gro countries. Ch th the Greec s the convers offset the loss currency and tability withi mediately se www.rjobrien.c cial loss, and is no and Member CIP of the ration e UAE have rrency lar. In uch as Bahrain Yeme 5926.8 5176 ate for owing hina is ce exit sation ses of their n this eek to ca ot PF. en .9
  • 3. Country Algeria Bahrain Egypt Iran Iraq Kuwait Lebanon Libya y Cross Rate to USD 0.0105 n 0.376 0.131 0.0036 0.0833 t 0.2959 n 1507.5 0.5175 Futures tradin Swift Code DZD BHD EGP IRR IQD KWD LBP LYD g and/or Foreign suitable for ev Name of Currency Algerian Dinar Bahraini Dinar Egyptian Pound Iranian Rial Iraqi Dinar Kuwaiti Dinar Lebanese Pound Libyan Dinar Exchange trading veryone. R.J. O’Br Anchor Not pegged. U a floating exchange ra using a baske currencies Pegged to U Not pegged Not pegged Not official pegged. IM Pegged to basket Pegged to U Pegged to th SDR at 1.9323 SDR/LYD Contac involves substant rien & Associates C Uses g ate et of s. No alth conv SD F d Fully fre Residen show a foreign are no recei d Non r fund foreig rate t fro pe Suppo and ev pay ly MF Ful transf millio cle a Fully bank o its va related financi believe 70% YS and % anno SD F he 370 Not Reside quantit but la appro ct us:888-74 tial risk, may resul Canada Inc. is a M Convertible ot fully convert hough commer vertible for res companies. Fully Convertib y Convertible b eely transferab nts are still req an underlying n n currency. Re ot required to ived and may h offshore. esidents may c ds in rial accou n exchange at to repatriate in om contracts a ermitted activit orting docume vidence of inco yment is requi ly Convertible fers abroad ab on IQD requirin earance certific convertible. C of Kuwait dete alue based on d to foreign tra ial relations. G ed to be comp SD, 20% EURO, %% GBP and the ounced daily b Central Bank. Fully convertib t freely convert ents can conve ties without re arger amounts oval from the C Bank. 41-1311 | ww lt in serious financ Member of IIROC tible rcially sident ble w ut not ble. quired to need for esidents sell FX hold it convert nts to market ncome and ties. ntation ome tax red. with bove 15 ng a tax cate. Central ermines ratios ade and enerally prised of , 5% JPY e rate is by the . w ble tible. ert small estriction s need Central www.rjobrien.c cial loss, and is no and Member CIP Central Bank Website www.bank of algeria.dz www.cbb.gov. www.cbe.org. www.cbr.ir www.cbi.iq www.cbk.gov. www.bdl.gov. www.cbl.gov. ca ot PF. 's f bh eg kw lb ly
  • 4. Morocco Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirate Source: Bloomb o 0.105 0.385 3.64 3.7 s 3.6725 berg Futures tradin MAD OMR QAR SAR AED g and/or Foreign suitable for ev Moroccan Dirham Omani Riyal Qatari Riyal Saudi Riyal U.A.E Dirham Exchange trading veryone. R.J. O’Br Pegged to basket Pegged to U Pegged to U Pegged to U Pegged to U Contac involves substant rien & Associates C a The Ce exc cre essent dirh conve cont subjec ta conve are SD Fully c can h accou and a perm accoun con SD Fully c no rest placin SD Fully reside to o Kingd SD F ct us:888-74 tial risk, may resul Canada Inc. is a M entral Bank pol hange controls eated two mar ially, one for d hams which are ertible with exc trol approval a ct to a 0.2% ex x and another ertible dirhams e freely tradea convertible. Re old foreign exc nts both dome abroad. They a mitted to hold ts abroad and nverted into fo currency. convertible. Th trictions on loc ng QAR deposit offshore banks y Convertible. nts are not pe pen accounts i dom apart from Nostros. Fully Convertib 41-1311 | ww lt in serious financ Member of IIROC licy with s has kets omestic e not change and is xchange for s which able. w esidents change estically are not OMR must be reign w here are cal banks ts with s. w Non rmitted in the m Bank w le. w www.rjobrien.c cial loss, and is no and Member CIP www.bkam.gov www.cbo oman www.qcb.gov. www.sama ksa www.uaecb.gov ca ot PF. .ma .org qa .org v.ae
  • 5. Energy M The MENA 60% of th Lebanon a has been According Arabia, Ira the news Naimi tha competito largest oi worldwid As you c productio Source: Bloomb Markets A region has he world’s oil as an exampl unable to acc g to the EIU a aq, U.A.E and without any at the Saudi ors. They do l producer in e. an see Saud on and as a re berg (OPEC) Futures tradin significant su l reserves an e has many u cess many of approximately d Kuwait lead official word s have purp o however co the world an di Arabia ma esult guidance g and/or Foreign suitable for ev upplies of Cru d 45% of the untapped oil a these. y 35% of the ing the produ d from the Ki osely been d ontinue their nd its level of kes up for g e from the oil Exchange trading veryone. R.J. O’Br ude and Natu e world’s natu and gas reser world’s globa uction. For m ngdom of Sa driving down r oil output a f production greater than minister is im Contac involves substant rien & Associates C ral Gas. The ural gas rese rves but due t al supply of o many months audi Arabia’s n the price t as demand m from its refin 32% of OPE mportant. ct us:888-74 tial risk, may resul Canada Inc. is a M United Natio rves are loca to the instab oil comes from s now we hav Oil Minister to compete may be declin neries has an EC’s monthly 41-1311 | ww lt in serious financ Member of IIROC ons has stated ated in this re ility of the co m OPEC with ve been heari Ali Bin Ibrahi with US sha ning. Saudi impact that y estimated www.rjobrien.c cial loss, and is no and Member CIP d that egion. ountry Saudi ng on im Al ale oil is the is felt crude ca ot PF.
  • 6. Source: Bloomb Within th followed guidance also that impact an recomme of inputs of a funda technical there is c region tha A perfect WTI crude desperate 71 year o drilling fo impact at trade pur interestin did not m have an u berg/Energy Intellige he markets th and can affe or the CFTC one of the m nd they are nded way of is a far bette amental slant indicators su calling for a p at comprises example of e (Globex: CL) ely trying to f old weekly su r US oil and g 1PM when it ely based on g part to not make much of understanding Futures tradin ence group (OPEC) here are seve ect the future commitment ost interestin played out i looking at a r way to und t on these ma ch as price ac price point on 35% of the m this narrow f ) cutting in h ind a bottom urvey from Ba gas was quote t was release news release te about this an impact at g of what pot g and/or Foreign suitable for ev eral importan es price. Th of traders re ng aspects of nternationall futures contr erstand the n arkets and fu ction, sentim n oil and my monthly oil su focus recently alf over six m any addition aker Hughes ed in the new ed causing a s es we can me particular m t all. Clearly in ential news c Exchange trading veryone. R.J. O’Br nt reports for hese can ran eport release trading crud y. Narrowin ract but inste nature of the lly agree with ent and resis only call he pply. MENA y has been th months falling al piece of in Inc. which c ws and on CN spike in crude easure the pr easure is com nformation co can have an im Contac involves substant rien & Associates C r each future ge from eco d at 3:30PM e futures is t ng in one co ead having a b product. I’ll h others that stance levels. re is that it’s matters, it’s he Baker Hug to 45.23 at it formation be ounts of the BC so often t e oil prices. W rice reaction mparing it to omes into fav mpact before ct us:888-74 tial risk, may resul Canada Inc. is a M es contract th nomic indica EST each Frid hat macro lev ountry or one broader visio openly admi there is valu It seems like s important t just that sim ghes survey. ts low on Jan ecomes in fav number of this past mon While it’s not to see what t o February of vour as well s e it starts doin 41-1311 | ww lt in serious financ Member of IIROC hat are comm ators, central day. Keep in vel events ha e event is no n of the mult it that I have e to looking a e every pund to also look a ple. With the pr 28th , 2015 tr vour quite oft rigs that wer nth that it ma t recommend the impact is last year wh so it’s importa ng so. www.rjobrien.c cial loss, and is no and Member CIP monly bank mind ave an ot my titude more at the dit out at the rice of raders ten. A re out de an ded to s. The here it ant to ca ot PF.
  • 7. Baker Hug Baker Hug ghes U.S Cou ghes U.S Cou Futures tradin unt Rig: Impac unt Rig: Impac g and/or Foreign suitable for ev ct of 5 minut ct of 5 minut Exchange trading veryone. R.J. O’Br es from relea es from relea Contac involves substant rien & Associates C ase : January ase: February ct us:888-74 tial risk, may resul Canada Inc. is a M 23 – Februar y 21 – March 41-1311 | ww lt in serious financ Member of IIROC ry 27, 2015 14, 2014 www.rjobrien.c cial loss, and is no and Member CIP ca ot PF.
  • 8. Baker Hug Baker Hug ghes U.S Cou ghes U.S Cou Futures tradin unt Rig: Impac unt Rig: Impac g and/or Foreign suitable for ev ct 30 minutes ct of 30 minu Exchange trading veryone. R.J. O’Br s from releas utes from rele Contac involves substant rien & Associates C se: January – ease: Februar ct us:888-74 tial risk, may resul Canada Inc. is a M February 13, ry 21 – March 41-1311 | ww lt in serious financ Member of IIROC , 2015 h 14, 2014 www.rjobrien.c cial loss, and is no and Member CIP ca ot PF.
  • 9. Political R To discuss Over the have all b uncertain Qatar, UA are much Develope own Cana in at 19 w country ca Source: B Given thi producing most like hypothesi know Iraq Risk s this region last 5 years been overthr ty, causes vo AE, Oman and lower and c d countries t ada (10) in sta which is highe an go from m loomberg s political un g countries. W ly had no be is that contin q and Iran hav Futures tradin it is unfortun the main go own and new latility to the d Saudi Arabi an be even c topping the l ark contrast t er than I wou moderately ris Political R ncertainty I What’s intere earing on the nually comes ve significant g and/or Foreign suitable for ev nately imposs overnments o w governmen e markets and a their politic compared to ist include N o war torn co uld have thou sky to outrigh Risk Score for wanted to c esting is that e price of Cr into play th issues so doe Exchange trading veryone. R.J. O’Br sible not to d of many MEN nts have bee d adds risk. A cal risk as me countries suc orway (4), D ountries like I ught. What re t scary. r countries in compare it to despite the ude. That’s b at all news is es the price o Contac involves substant rien & Associates C discuss the po NA countries en put in plac As one can se easured by th ch as Mexico Denmark (6), Iraq (89) and eally is strikin the MENA R o the price high political because the s already fac of crude. ct us:888-74 tial risk, may resul Canada Inc. is a M olitical risk th including Lib ce. This inst e from below he Economic (42), Italy (5 New Zealand Libya (95). U ng is how ove Region of Crude for risk score of theory of th ctored into th 41-1311 | ww lt in serious financ Member of IIROC hat has affect bya, Egypt (tw tability, as w w countries su Intelligence U 51) and China d (8) and our USA actually c er a short pe r the top 5 f Iran and Ira e efficient m he price and www.rjobrien.c cial loss, and is no and Member CIP ted it. wice!) ith all uch as Union a (54). r very comes riod a OPEC q this market if we ca ot PF.
  • 10. Source: Bloomb Now wha taken into the surplu the price displays t Source: Bloomb berg t is of signific o the wrong us, or glut, of of crude. Su he major oil p berg (BMAP) Futures tradin cant importan hands. A sup f oil that ther pply and dem producing cou g and/or Foreign suitable for ev nce is the oil pply disruptio re is in the m mand is a key untries and th Exchange trading veryone. R.J. O’Br refineries, th on fundamen market but wi factor when he locations o Contac involves substant rien & Associates C heir locations tally may not ill add risk int it comes to t of their oil ref ct us:888-74 tial risk, may resul Canada Inc. is a M and the risk t cause imme to the marke the price of c fineries. 41-1311 | ww lt in serious financ Member of IIROC that they cou ediate issues et which can crude oil. This www.rjobrien.c cial loss, and is no and Member CIP uld be given affect s map ca ot PF.
  • 11. It’s impor region. T have exp northern organizat world’s su Daura wh may be su supply ris and fear o Iraq: The Nasir rtant to und To understand anded out u area of Iraq t ion. Given it upply of oil. T hich produces ubject to terr sk of having 3 of having ano yah refinery i Futures tradin erstand whe d each count using the 5 l that is under ts capacity of This was Iraq’ s 210,000 bar rorism activit 30,000 barrel other oil refine is still under c g and/or Foreign suitable for ev ere oil refine tries roles fur eading OPEC control by th f 310,000 ba ’s largest Oil rrels per day. y however it ls in the mar ery taken ove construction Exchange trading veryone. R.J. O’Br ries are loca rther and how C countries. he Islamic Sta rrels per day refinery as th As of late th only produce rket is less im er by terrorist and will beco Contac involves substant rien & Associates C ated and the w many barr Currently th ate commonl y these are n he next closes here has been es 30,000 ba mportant than ts. ome Iraq’s lar ct us:888-74 tial risk, may resul Canada Inc. is a M e geographica rels of oil per here is one o y known as I o longer ava st producer n n news that K rrels a day so n the politica rgest oil produ 41-1311 | ww lt in serious financ Member of IIROC ally nature o r day they su oil refinery i SIS/ISIL, a ter ilable to be i near Baghdad Kirkuk’s oil re o the fundam al risk of insta ucing refinery www.rjobrien.c cial loss, and is no and Member CIP of this pply I n the rrorist in the d is Al finery mental ability y. ca ot PF.
  • 12. Saudi Ara Saudi Ara by the Ki avenues o they were with Dow Arabia ha prices to produce 8 Kuwait: Despite th Kuwaiti D however t Iran: Iran’s gov them. It produce a abia: bian Oil mor ngdom of Sa of investmen e seeking $10 w Chemical to as offered gu China to com 800,000 barre he drop in oil inar. The pro the Shuaiba r vernment has is important a significant a Futures tradin e commonly audi Arabia. ts and divers 0 Billion in lo start produc idance that t mpete with R els per day th prices Kuwai oject is set for refinery which s been threat to keep an amount of bar g and/or Foreign suitable for ev known as Ar Given the d sifying their re oans to financ ction on a $20 they want to Russia. Given here looks like it is forging ah r completion h generates 2 tening to sto eye on the p rrels per day. Exchange trading veryone. R.J. O’Br ramco is the w rop in oil pri evenue strea ce other strea 0 Billion Sada keep their m n they have t e there is no head with the in the 1st qua 200,000 barre p oil product political views Contac involves substant rien & Associates C world’s large ices they hav ams. During ams of invest ara Chemicals market share two refinerie end in sight t e Al Zour refi arter of 2018. els per day is tion giving th s that come ct us:888-74 tial risk, may resul Canada Inc. is a M st energy com ve actively b February 201 tments and h s petrochemi of oil and ha es under con to cutting the nery which at . As part of th set to close g he sanctions t out of this c 41-1311 | ww lt in serious financ Member of IIROC mpany and o een seeking 15 there was have partner cal venture. ave even cut struction tha eir supply. t a cost of 4 b he project given its older that are place country as th www.rjobrien.c cial loss, and is no and Member CIP owned other news ed up Saudi t their at will billion r age. ed on ey do ca ot PF.
  • 13. UAE: The Unite largest, th but actua global hu (www.dub There hav in June 20 countries give you a I wanted summer o very unst Tut. The Morsi’s go as I came being bra entrance. surprise a Througho nature in but I hone my travel paralyzed Feel free with me o The content R.J. O’Brien be construe is a substan investors. C come from your financi ed Arab Emir he capital of lly does not h ub of tradin baimerc.com ve been rumo 015. Given th keeping an e an edge on tr to end this r off and travel able time wh Museum of overnment w e out of the ave or most l I motioned and joy one out my travel everyone I ca estly felt safe s was that w d by fear. We to contact m on Bloomberg t and opinions e & Associates Ca ed as an indicatio ntial risk of loss Contact your acc sources believe ial condition prio Futures tradin rates is comp the country a have many oi g given the ) and the Dub ours that OPE he break even eye on the n ading and a m report on a p throughout hen there we Egyptian Ant was just overt car I saw the likely naïve, to a few of Egyptian so ls through UA ame across. er there than we should alw may miss ou me directly at g (f.kamal) wh expressed within anada Inc. The d on or guarantee s in trading com ount representa d to be reliable or to making any g and/or Foreign suitable for ev prised of 7 em and the leadi il reserves co ey have two bai Gold and C EC will have a n price and ea ews in the M more informe personal note Europe and t re daily prote tiquities is lo hrown. My d ere were tan I continued o them and as ldier jumped AE, Saudi Ar As a woman I have in any ways keep an ut on potentia t fkamal@rjob here all of the this commenta data and comme e of any kind of w mmodity futures ative for more in but are not gu y trading decisio Exchange trading veryone. R.J. O’Br mirates, simi ing producer ntrary to pop futures exc Commodities an emergenc ach country’s MENA region ed opinion ab e. A few yea he Middle Ea ests but that ocated in Tah driver took m ks, machine on and saw s sked if I was d off his tank abia, Morocc I read prior t y other place open mind, al growth opp brien.com, fo e data in this ary are solely tho ents provided he what the future s, options and f nformation on th aranteed as to ons. Contac involves substant rien & Associates C lar to provin of oil. Duba pular belief. changes, the s Exchange (w cy meeting pr s economic re should be of out this comm ars ago I was ast. I travelle did not stop hrir Square w me to the bac guns and ba soldiers on t allowed to t k and happi co and Egypt to my trip tha that I’ve visi not be afraid portunities. ollow me on report was so ose of the autho erein are for info performance of foreign exchang hese risks. Inform accuracy or com ct us:888-74 tial risk, may resul Canada Inc. is a M ces, with Ab ai is both a ci They have h e Dubai Me www.dgcx.ae) rior to their s eliance of oil f great impor modity. s fortunate e d to Egypt in p me from wa where riots w ck entrance o arbed wire ev tanks lined u take a pictur ly posed in t I found this at the region ited. The less d to take calc twitter (@rjo ourced from. or(s) and are not ormational purpo f the concerned ge products and rmation and opin mpleteness. Ple 41-1311 | ww lt in serious financ Member of IIROC u Dhabi bein ity and an em however beco rcantile exch ). scheduled me being differe tance. It ma nough to tak July 2013 du anting to visit were occurri f the museum verywhere. p along the e. To my abs pictures with s same hosp can be dang son I learned culated risks ofarah) or co t necessarily sha oses only and m markets will be. d is not suitable nions contained ease carefully co www.rjobrien.c cial loss, and is no and Member CIP ng the mirate ome a hange eeting ent for ay just ke the ring a t King ng as m and Either gated solute h me. pitable gerous d from or be nnect ared by ust not There for all d herein onsider ca ot PF.